Features Sports
MEDFORPjipTRIBUNE
SECTION B MEDFORD, OREGON. SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 2. 1962 PAGES 1 to 6
About Weather Forecasting and Taxes
Mobile Unit Designed to Forecast at Fire Sites
The part weather plays lu helping to fight forest fires
Is important.
Important enough, in fact, that the weather bureau
has added to its staff in Medford a fire weather meteor
ologist, and has provided a r.ew mobile fire weather fore
cast unit, one of 13 recently purchased by the weather
bureau for use in the western part of the country.
An example of weather and its effect upon forest fires
was demonstrated recently in the Applegate fire off the
Jacksonville highway, when unexpected gusty winds spot-,
ted a controlled blaze across fire lines and whipped it
out of control.
In the same blaze, a fire fighting i:ew was endangered
when the wind shifted without warning, almost trapping
the crew. Tools used by the crew were dropped, and the
men had to run to avoid the approaching fire.
The new mobile fire weather unit stationed at Medford
Is designed to help forecast what will happen at the site
of a forest fire, especially as far as wind behavior is con
cerned, according to Jim Tyrrell, fire weather forecaster.
The forecasting system may not be ideal and predict
exactly what will happen, but it will a long way in fore
casting unusual conditions, and will prove invaluable from
the "wild" fire standpoint.
Forest protection agencies have for some time recog
nized the need for "spot" forecasting, and the fire weather
mobile unit is designed for that.
The mobile unit is housed in a three-quarter ton pick
up truck with an especially designed camper.
It has a two-way single side band radio for which two
frequencies have been designated, one for voice and the
other for data transmission. Such data would include
weather charts sent from the regular forecast office.
The unit has a portable power supply, plus equipment
for taking regular observations and upper wind observa
tions at the scene of large fires.
The unit stationed in Medford will be used primarily
in the Medford fire weather district. This includes Siskiyou,
Rogue, Fremont, and Winema National forests, Crater Lake
National park, Klamath and Curry county forest pro
tective associations, and the southwest district of the state
department of forestry.
0 OJ
I if wU. tk s oe or rouuEcr . If' -"91 '"' ms-.
Jim Tyrrell, fire weather mcteorolgist at the Medford partment of forestry. The unit is one of 13 distributed
weather bureau station, explains the new mobile fire fore- throughout the western states to fire weather offices, and
cast unit to Doug Finch, dispatcher for the Rogue River wa is especially acsigned for on-the-spot forecasting at the
tional forest, and Wayne Peterson, administrative assistant scene of large fires.
for the southwest Oregon district of the Oregon state de
Weather Bureau Makes No Claim To Be Infallible
By HARRY FERGUSON
United Press International
Washington - (OT - Next
to a baseball umpire, the
weather man gets more sec
ond guessing than anybody.
The difference is that the
U.S. Weather Bureau makes
no claim to being infallible
and, in fact, spends most of
its time revising its previous
judgments.
The Jones family decides
to spend Saturday driving
40 miles to a beach and hav
ing a picnic. At 7 a.m. they
check on the weather by
looking at the morning
papers or turning on the
television or radio.
It doesn't make any differ
ence where they get their
information because it ail
comes from the same source
the U.S. Weather Bureau.
They read or hear this:
"Mostly sunny today with
a high temperature of 82
degrees. Fair and cooler
tonight. "
Odds Favor Forecast
The odds are almost
seven to one that the Jones
family will find things ex
actly as forecast. But there
always is that one chance
that it will start raining as
soon as they hit the road
and continue all day. The
heaviest cross the Weather
Bureau has to bear is that
when a forecast is correct
people take it for granted,
but when it is wrong they
never forget it.
Over the years the Wea
ther Bureau has a record
of making correct forecasts
87 per cent of the time.
When they go astray, it is
primarily because of a fac
tor which they call "insuf
ficient sampling."
There arc 300 full lime
weather bureaus operating
24 hours a day and about
12.000 volunteer helpers.
But it is still impossible to
have a weather observer in
every town in the country,
and here is how the mis
takes come about:
Issues Prediction
At 4 a.m. the forecaster
In Richmond, Va., issues his
prediction for three periods
7 a.m. to 7 p.m., then for
the night hours and thcr.
for the following day. Rich
mond is roughly 100 miles
from Washington and the
Richmond man has the ben
efit, of observations maap
in the Nation's capital as
well as his own. On the
bais of that he predicts
fair and warm. But half
way between Washington
ind Richmond, in the town
J
- sn i
. I J' ' H.l jw---. f
-.,-4&Z-" -HT- - ..I'm ' -
7f TttTHu
. V" --tfe
Next to a baseball umpire, the weather man gets more second guessing than any
body. The difference is that the U. S. weather bureau makes no claim to being infall
ible and. in fact, spends most of its time revising its previous judgments. Probably quite
willing to help with the revisions are stranded motorists like these, who were stalled
In seven-inch snowfall on Grand Central parkway Dec. 22, 1919, or who were victim!
of autns overheating in weltenng OS-degree temperature In New Jersey en route to
the Lincoln tunnel June 29, 1959. (UP1)
of Fredericksburg, Va.,
something is happening that
the forecaster doesn't know
about. Nobody is there to
report it for him.
At 7:30 a.m. it starts to
rain in Richmond because
of conditions over Freder
icksburg and many a man
loks out the window,
throws his newspaper on
the floor and advises his
wife that the weather man
is a bum.
Or perhaps and this is
where the weather bureau
gets a break he denounces
the newspaper or the TV
radio station. A sizeable
segment of the American
population apparently is
convinced that newspapers
and TV-radio stations per
sonally go through some
mysterious mumbo jumho
In an attempt to predict the
weather.
Unlike baseball umpires,
the Weather Bureau has no
hesitancy In reversing It
self and the forecast is up
dated at least four times a
day.
Tricky Business
Any scientist will tell
you that predicting the wea
ther is tricky business, but
there are millions of Amer
icans who will remain con
vinced until the day they
die that they can do a bet
ter job than the Weather
Bureau.
They depend on such
things as the way moss
grows on trees, whether a
groundhog comes out of his
hole and which way cattle
face in a pasture. Then
there is the undying legend
about the Eskimo being an
infallible weather prophet
because when he builds an
extra thick igloo it is going
to he a lough winter.
Weather men have a
story about that:
While man: "I see you
arc building a thick igloo.
Is it going to be an extra
severe winter?"
Eskimo: "Don't know."
White man: "Then why
are you building such a
thick igloo?"
Eskimo: "Eskimo build
thick igloo because he saw
white man laying In double
supply of coal."
Bureau Is Skeptical
The Weather Bureau Is
skeptical of any specific
forecast for any specific lo
cality that is made more
lhan 48 hours in advance.
It does go in for long-range
studies, but only in the most
general terms.
Such studies ir valuibl
lo farmers and especially In
fruit growers who are ex
tremely sensitive about
weather forecasts. An un
expected drop of one or two
degrees below frost condi
tions can be a disaster.
Will man ever be able to
do anything to the weather
except talk about it? Scien
tists are cautious about
weather modification and
the National Science Found
ation submitted a report to
President Kennedy pointing
out that too much tinkering
might produce worse wea
ther rather than better.
One Theory Held
One theory held by repu
table meteorologists is that
it might be possible to bomb
hurricanes with TNT and
at least diminish their -strength.
A hundred pounds
of dry ice was dropped on
Hurricane Esther last year
and part of the storm's eye
wall was rained out. But it
reformed quickly and
Eslher never lost her drive.
Bombing a hurricane
with a megaton (a million
tons of TNT) of nuclear
power could cost about $1
million and the Weather
Bureau doesn't have the
money to spend that way.
There also might be a fall
out problem.
Seeding clouds to cause
rain succeeds fairly well in
mountainous areas during
cold weather. It's not so
good where it is needed
most in the arid plains.
Waqes Ctaieleis War
The Weather Bureau
wages ceaseless war against
hurricanes and tornadoes
by constantly trying to Im
prove lis warning system.
It has been using airplanes
lo explore hurricanes.
In the many queries re
reived by the Weather
Bureau there occasionally is
an Inquiry as to how a per
son can become a long
range weather forecaster
without bothering to study
meteorology. The answer
usually given is this:
"Get the figures on the
temperature and rainfall for
your locality for the last 20
years. For every day It
rained write "rain" on a
slip of paper and put it in
your hat. Do the same for
every day that was cloudy
or clear. When you get
ready lo make your fore
cast, start drawing slips out
of the hat. If you don'l like
the result, put the slips
bark In the hat and draw
gain."
Increases Noted in
Millage Rates for
Seven Area Cities
By EARL h. ADAMS
Mail Tribunt City Editor
The combined lax millage rates in seven Jackson county
cities and towns increased tliis fiscal year over last year,
according to the county a.sscssotr's office. Rates in three
cities decreased.
The millage rate, translated into dollar value, is the
amount property owners are taxed per hundred dollars of
valuation. The money goes to the taxing units in which the
property is located.
The Increases ranged from 3.7 mills in Jacksonville to
37 mills in Eagle Point. Decreases were 9.6 mills in Phoenix,
18 mills in Ashland and 3.4 mills in Talent.
The increase in E,age Point is because of a 20.7 mill
rise in the levy for the city of Eagle Point, which is now
repaying bonds sold to finance a sewer system, and a 16.3
mill rise in the Eagle Point school district levy.
The following table gives the 1962-63 millage rates in
cities, the school district serving that city, the total levy
and the levy increase or decrease. The city and school district
levies are in parentheses.
Cily School Total Increase or
District Levy Decrease
( or -)
Jacksonville (28.4) 549 (60.7) 89.1 3.7
Phoenix (22.2) 4 (56.2) 78.4 -9.6
Ashland (20.9) 5 (64.9) 85.8 -1.8
Gold Hill (23.0) 6C (60.9) 83.9 5.2
Central Point (22.4) BC (60.9) 83.3 8.4
Eagle Point (42.1) (72.9) 115.0 37.0
Talent (26.6) 4 (58.5) 85.1 -3.4
Rogue River (27.3) 35 (61.3) 88.6 3.8
Medford (32.6) 549 (60.7) 93.3 7.6
Butte Falls (21.0) Bl (74.0) 95.0 5.5
The difference in millage rates in school district 4, which
includes both Phoenix and Talent, is because of the recent
consolidation of the two districta. Property owners in tha
old Talent school district have bond issue obligations which
were not assumed by the Phoenix district when the two
consolidated.
Property owners may figure their property tax by con
verting the total levy in mills to a dollar valuation. For
example, residents of Eagle Point, where the total levy is 115
mills, will pay a total of $11.50 per $100 of assessed valuation.
Eagle Point s millage increase Is divided between the city
and school district levies. The city levy increased 20.7 mills
this year to a total of 42.1 mills, and the school district s levy
increased 16.3 mills to a total of 72.9.
The following table shows the increase or decrease in the
levies in cities and towns in Jackson county. It gives the
'1962-63 city budget, the Increase in the budget this year, and
the increase or decerase In the levy. The total city levy iJ
listed in parentheses in the table above.
Clly
Jacksonville
Phoenix
Ashland
Gold Hill
Central Point
Eagle Point
Talent
Rogue River
Medford
Butte Falls
Budget
19.022.43
19,482.83
173,469.39
12,024.68
54,245.88
15,874.39
14,436.14
13,376.62
$1,17(1,857.98
$ 2,811.98
Levy
Budget or
Increase
$ 2,091.34
$ 594.05
$ 7,330.87
$ 1,637.81
$ 15,137.14
$ 7,494.07
$ 734.89
$ 1,355.92
$347,270.77
$ 63.06
Increase
Decrease
(or-)
' 2.2
-6.1
0.3
2.0
5.2
20.7
-0.2
0.8
6.1
0.5
Although all city budgets show an increase, some levies
show a decrease. This is because of Increases In income from
sources other than taxation.
Property owners outside Incorporated cities and towns
will have varying millage rates, depending upon the taxing;
districts in which they live. Taxing units in Jackson county,
in addition to school districts and cities, are rural fire pro
tection, water, sanitary and other special assessment dis
tricts. There is no tax levy for county government, because of
other Income, principally from O&C receipts.
Some property owners live In one taxing district, In ad
dition to the school district, and others may live or own
property in two or more special taxing districts.
School district levies account for the largest share of the
property tax levy. This tax levy is shown In the following
table, which lists the school district, the total amount to be
raised through property taxes, the Increase or decrease ot
the tax over last year, the millage levy Increase or decrease,
and the millage levied for the 1962-63 fiscal year.
School
District
Phoenix
(original)
Phoenix
(consldld.)
Ashland
Cent. Point
Eagle Point
Rogue River
Applegate
Medford
Prospect
Evans Valley
Butte Falls
Pinchurst
The total school levy actually is three different levies
the rural school, special school and school bond levies. The
rural school levy Is the same in all districts, 26.2 mills, but
the special school and school bond levies vary from district
to district.
The special school levies arc: Phoenix (both original and
ennsoidated district), 24.2; Ashland, 28.4; Central Point,
27.4; Eagle Point, 37.3; Rogue River, 25.8; Applegate, 58.5;
Medford, 29.4; Prospect, 43.1; Evans Valley, 40.7; Butte
Falls, 41.2; and Pinchurst, 26.2.
The special school levy is the amount raised through
taxation for general operating expenditures in the districts.
The school bond levy is the amount raised through property
taxes for repayment of bonds issued for capital improve
ments. The school bond levies are: Phoenix (original), 0.8;
Phoenix (consolidated), 8.1; Ashiand, 10.3; Central Point, 7.3;
Eagle Point, 9.4; Rogue River, 9.3; Applegate, 0.6; Medford,
5.1; Prospect, 8.7; Evans Valley, 4.0; and Butte Falls, 6.6.
Pinehurst school district has no school bond levy since it
has no bonded indebtedness.
Most of the increases In school budgets are because ol
rises in operating and Instructional expenses.
In cases where the amount raised by taxes increases, but
Ihe millage levy decreases, other revenues have increased to
point high enough to reduce the levy. A reverse condition
exists when the amount lo he raised decreases, but the
millage levy Increases, as In the case of Butte Falls school
district.
Tax Levy
Increase Increase
Or Or Total
D crease Decrease School
Total Tax ( or-) (or-) Levy
$ 446,030.78 $ 60,182.98 -3.5 56.2
$ 114,383.59 $ 12,912.00 -3.2 58.5
$ 811,591.13 -$ 19,302.87 -2.1 64.9
$ 726,251.01 $ 73,971.16 3.2 60.9
$ 656,022.29 $139,051.86 16.3 72.9
$ 163,964.68 $ 37,600.59 3.0 61.3
$ 58,868.28 $ 26,608.00 37.4 85.3
$3,134,328.68 $236,059.20 1.5 60.7
$ 133,819.60 $ 7,948.49 4.2 78.0
$ 85,792.83 $ 10,153.66 14.6 70.9
$ 115,484.70 -$ 13,737.44 5.0 74.0
$ 34,546.38 $ 5,365.82 17.7 52.4