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MEDFORD MAIL TRIBUNE. MEDFORD, ORE.
. THURSDAY, JUNE 30. US'
Economists Split
On Possibility of
Another Recession
Washington flJPD - Leading
business economist! are split
harply over whether the na
tion'! fourth postwar reces
sion will begin in the closing
Honths of this yevr.
. One forecaster warned
there are signs of a major eco
nomic slump just around the
corner. Others predicted mod'
est improvement in the sec
ond half of this year. None ex
pected a boom within the next
12 months.
. The views were expressed
at the midyear business out
look conference sponsored by
the U. S. Chamber of Com
merce. There was general
agreement that:
Lower Mortgage Costs
. -Interest rates would con
tinue to decline, resulting in
lower home mortgage costs
this fall and early next year.
, -A pickup in lagging steel
production will occur within
to days to keep pace with
stepped-up demand from auto
and appliance manufacturers.
.. -Spending on construction
In 1960 will fall below the
total spent in the preceding
year (nearly $56.5 billion) for
Scout
News
Boy Scout Troop t
' Boy" Scout Troop 8 held a
Court of . Honor at the Guild
hall of the Episcopal church
Wednesday, June 29. '
A tenderfoot . investiture
was . given to Brian Kelling
ton, David. Culbertson and
Ricky Frazier by Elwood Hed
berg, Scoutmaster; Bob Ben
nett, senior patrol leader;
Larry Humphreys, assistant
senior patrol leader, and as
sisted by other boys of the
troop.
' Douglas Sweet was present
ed his second class award by
Lawrence Kolkemo. W. L.
Warren presented Ward Con
ger and Bill Bennett their
first class awards.
Boyd Yadcn was presented
his Star award and a hiking
Merit Badge award by Hcd
bcrg. Boyd is a member pf
Post 8 of the Episcopal church.
Light refreshments were serv
ed after the ceremony.
Sfubblefield Girl
Observes Birthday
', Parma, Idaho - IUPD - Little
Denett Stubblefield Is Into
her second year of life after
celebrating her first birthday
Wednesday.
'. Denctt is the surviving
Siamese twin daughter of Mr.
and Mrs. James Stubblefield.
The occasion was marked by
family dinner.
The only unhappy spot In
the festivities was the Ab
sence of Dcnett's twin sister
Jcanette, who died April 8
from complications arising
from successful separation of
the two girls.
Mrs. Stubblefield said that
Denett was doing well. She
took the baby to Portland for
checkup last week and doc
tors gave Denctt a clean bill
of health.
i The Stubbleflelds have
fhree other children who Mrs
Stubblefield said "think the
un rises and sets" on little
Denctt.
the first time since the end
of World War II.
Frank ,E. Morris, research
director of the Investment
Bankers association, was the
most pessimistic.
"The signs of an imminent
recession are growing strong
er all the time," he warned.
"I don't think they should be
ignored."
Morris said on the basis of
leading economic indicators
that a recession may be un
derway later this year and
continue until mid-1961. In
terest rates will drop and the
federal reserve board is likely
to loosen credit fast if a down
turn develops, he claimed.
Dr. Emerson P. Schmidt.
chief economist for the cham
ber, took issue with this fore
c a s t. He predicted further
modest" economic improve
ment to record-high levels de
spile a few weak spots in the
economy.
No Maladjustments
The consensus is that the
expanding factors will exceed
the contractive factor s,"
Schmidt said. "There are no
major economic maladjust
ments emerging in the econ
omy."
On the plus side, Schmidt
said government spending, ex
ports, steel production Invest
ment in new plants and equip
ment and heme building all
will rise in the last half of
the year.
Speaking for the steel In
dustry, L. S. Hamaker fore
cast a near-record year with
production of 115 million tons
of ingots. He said an "inven
tory adjustment" has caused
sharp layoffs in recent months
but predicted the industry
would rebound in the closing
quarters.
"We can't buy the idea that
any serious downturn in gen
eral business will develop in
the last half of 1960," said
Hamaker, assistant vice presi
dent for sales of third-ranking
Republic Steel company. An
other "fair to good" year is
in prospect for 1961, he added.
Miles L. Colean, a consult
ing economist representing the
construction industry, said
the outlook for easier money
would benefit builders and
home-buyers.
Construction to Drop
But construction spending
this year will drop about 2
per cent below the 1959 total,
mainly because of a slowdown
in private home-building, Co
lean said.
School construction shows
a faint indication of a pickup
after declining 5 per cent
from last year but there Is
no sign of improvement In the
slumping military building
field, he added.
On the overall outlook, Co
lean said he saw no reason
for taking a pessimistic view
and said he was "mildly opti
mistic about the coming year.
In another report, Cen. Or-
val Cook of the Aerospace In
dustries Association of Amer
ica, said he anticipated a con
tinuation of high government
spending on missiles and space
vehicles. - .
Driver Receives Fine
For 3-Wheel Driving
Sayrevillc, N.J. - Donald
W. Foss was arrested when
police spotted him driving his
car on three tires and one
wheel rim.
Foss was fined $105 in
municipal court and his li
cense was suspended fur 90
days. Magistrate Edward A.
Modzelewski imposed the stiff
penalty after learning Foss
had been fined once before
for riding on only three tires.
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1