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Experts Predict Improvement In Industry in Balance of '60
Br ELMER C. WALZER
UPI Financial Editor
New York (IfD - Two busl.
nesi expert! today looked tor
Improvement generally in In
dustry in the lecond half of
1 1960.
A. W. Zelc
mek president
and economist
tor Interna
tional Stati
cal Bureau
tlndf "the
American
economy has
more vitality
ElaMrWalMr at the present
time than during any period
of recent history."
He looki for general busi
ness to average moderately
higher during the rest of the
year based on gross national
product, and adds that even
total production will average
slightly higher later in the
year, "possibly exceeding
slightly the 1950-80 peak."
John W, Riday of the Dun
& Brads treet business econo
mics department, says that
while no spectacular gains
are in prospect, business ac
tivity during the rest of 1960
Is almost sure to rally from
the slight setback In the early
months, "and to move on to
new high ground before the
year is out."
Writing In the current
Dun's Review, Riday draws
the following conclusions:
Production Edging Upward
-Industrial production will
edge up gradually all sum
mer, matching its January
peak some time In the fall
-Now that May and June
output schedules have been re
vised upward, 1960 may turn
out to be the second best
auto year in history.
-Any increase in the pro
duction of consumer goods
will probably wait until fall,
but output of machinery and
paperboard should start to
rise soon.
-Only late In the year will
business men Increase Inven
tories significantly-and give
a healthy boost to Industrial
output.
-Rising production In late
I960 will not push unemploy
ment below 5 per cent of the
labor force.
-Retail sales will hit more
records as the year wears on.
Profits To Fall Off
- Despite continued high
sales levels, profits in the sec
ond quarter wil lnot keep up
to the level of the first three
months.
- Outlays for Industrial
building will be well up for
the year as a whole.
year as a whole.
In arriving at his conclus
ion on America's economic vi
tality, Zelomek says he does
not ignore such restraining
factors as a shrinking farm
income, the somewhat large
consumer debt structure al
though not abnormal, and the
fact that most of the postwar
shortages have been made
up.
Ha finds the vitality of the
economy is the result of a
healthy population growth,
Burning Currency
One of Jobs for
Engraving Bureau
Guidelines for
Good Currency
Washington - (UPt - These
re the Treasury's guide
lines for determining if cur
rency is fit to continue in
circulation! It must be fair
ly clean, so that its class,
denomination and genuine
Bess een be determined
without difficulty.
It must contain a suffi
cient amount of "life" or
"siting" is permit Us being
handled with facility. It
should not contain ( heavy
creases which break the fi
ber. It should not be so badly
soiled as to be offensive, or
be torn, perforated or oth
erwise mutilated. Turned
down corners do not render
notes unfit.
Washington - (DPD - If any
body tells you that money just
goes up in smoke after it gets
to Washington, don't argue.
It's true.
You can see the smoke, but
not the cash, anytime you are
In town and care to look.
The smoke comes curling
ut of a 115-foot smokestack
top the Bureau of Engraving
and Printing Annex. It origi
nates two floors below street
level in a furnace for burning
currency which is worn out,
foiled, mutilated or torn.
Cell Fire Going
There's not much ceremony
In It. While two-man "de
struction committee" gets the
fire going with some scrap pa
per, an employee wheels In a
cart packed with money.
All three men lob handfuls
nd armloads of bundled cur
rency through the furnace
door.
A package misses the open
ing and lies (intended on the
floor. A stray bill flutters halt
way across the room. A visi
tor wonders if the committee
will fail to notice the package
or the bill and leave them
lying on the floor.
Not se. After the truck is
emptied - a matter of five
' minutes and hundreds of
thousands ef pieces of eurrn
cy, meetly ones, fives, tens
nd twenties - committee
Chairman John F. Horan and
bis aid meticulously pick up
the r p i of money lying
round and chuck them into
the fire.
Legally Canceled
Even If Moran missed a
piece, it probably wouldn't be
much good to anyone else.
Most of the currency burned
at the Annex is Federal Re
serve Notes which have been
America's industrial creative-
ness. the revolution in Income
distribution, and the relative
stability in prices and expand
ing consumer demand.
"The fact that the economy
has withstood some major
readjustments and still re
mains at about the peak," he
says, "certainly attests to the
vitality of the American econ
omy. Favorable Business Trend
"The current higher gener
al business trend which
legally canceled by perfora
tion and split in halt length
wise. Even the top and bottom
of a canceled note together
are worthless.
The worn, canceled Federal
Reserve Notes are shipped to
the Treasury by the Federal
Reserve Banks, which con
fine their own burning of old
money to Treasury currency.
The Federal Reserve does
not destroy its own liabili
ties," explained John R. Far
rell, head of operations for all
12 Reserve Banks and their
branches. The bills are split
before shipping as a hedge
against theft.
(Treasury currency Includes
U.S. Notes, two and five-dol
lar bills with red seals, and
Silver Certificates, ones, fives
ana tens with e blue seal. Fed
eral Reserve Notes, fives and
up, have a green seal. All are
government money and equal
ly good. But for technical rea
sons the first two kinds are
Treasury obligations and the
third a Federal Reserve liabil
ity.) No Rigid Test
When is a piece of money
worn out? There is no rigid
test. Local custom is Impor
tant. The Treasury has found
that bills sent in by Federal
Reserve Banks in the South
are more 'worn or limp than
those coming from New York
or Chicago, some of whose re
jects are nearly crisp.
This means only that in the
South people are more will
ing to use creased or limp
bills, an official said.
Before old money is burned
it is counted-several times, at
least once In a commercial
bank, twice more in a Federal
Reserve Bank and at least
once by the Treasury. The
Treasury check might be con
sidered a double counting
since the tops and bottoms of
the spilt bills are tamed sepa
rately. Monotonous Work
Riffling through packs of
100 bills at a time, counters
also weed out counterfeits.
Only women are hired by the
Treasury and Reserve Banks
as counter! because the work
is monotonous and men are
believed too Impatient for It,
according to Frank N. Proc
tor, chief of the Treasury's
Currency Redemption Divi
sion.
Proctor's unit counted and
sent to the furnace 503,713,-
728 nieces of currency in
1959. What few pieces didn't
go up in smoke right away
stuck to screen at the top of
the smokestack. The govern
ment just doesn't let that stuff
go flying around.
should continue until the end
of the year, is favorable.
"This does not imply a
boon or excesses with a sub
sequent sharp letdown. It
does indicate good, steady
economic growth with only
temporary interruptions."
Zelomek holds that con
sumer spending will contrib
ute to the better showing for
the rest of the year.
He also looks for a small
gain in business spending
during the last quarter but
holds this will be influenced
by the international situation
and the resultant-'.inventory
charges.
"Government spending will
also .be Influenced by inter
national tension, although
changes will be limited,' short
of war, which we do not ex
pect," he says.
Zelomek expects neither In
flation nor deflation. He. be
lieves stability to firmness
will characterize the price
trend, assuming no worsen
ing In the International situa
tion. . -. . :
The supply of money will
be adequate to take care of
needs, and will be a stimulat
ing factor, he says.
On the stock market rise,
Zelomek feels that the sharp
upturn in prices, while it may
obviate an immediate easing
in margin requirements, is
not expected to be sufficient
ly marked to. warrant a re
versal in the present mone
tary trend.
Kentucky Policemen
Victims of Thefts ' . '
Louisville, Ky. -Thieves left
two Louisville policemen call
ing for the law.
' Sgt. D. S. Kimball said a
bicycle worth $65 was stolen
from his porch and PtLArch
er Andrews reported that four
hubcaps were taken from his
private car while he walked
his beat. ...... '
Some 68 per cent of all
Canadian households include
a sewing machine among
home appliances. '
'Tone of Voice' Told in Whispers
- Providence, R.I. - (Science
Service) - A person's "tone of
voice" can be told everf when
he whispers, Acoustical Socie
ty of America was told bere.i
Three scientists reported
that their experiments on
communication by voice show
ed most persons could easily
recognize happiness, surprise,
boredom or, disbelief in-the
voice of an unseen speaker.
The i speakers, -. who had no
dramatic, training, would say
such' a neutral - sentence as,
'.'the lamp stood on the desk,"
and try, at the same time, te
express various emotions.
Results showed that it la
possible to Identify a number
of tones of voice quite accur
ately even when there Is a
considerable amount of Inter
ferlng noise or when the
speaker whispers. The scien
tists testing verbal recognition
of emotion were Drs. Irwin
Pollack, Herbert Rubenstein,
and Arnold Horowitz of the
human factors office of the
Air Force Cambridge Re
search center, Bedford, Mass.
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