MAIL TRIBUNE, Medford. Oregon, Sunday, Ftbrury 22, 195 S
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Whose Job ioKeep
Peace in Area Is
Topic for Program
(Editor's note: This is the
fourth in a series of Great
' Decisions program discus
sions. Today's topic is
"Peace in the Middle Easl
Whose Job?" The discus
sion information is pre
pared by the general ex
tension division, Oregon
state system of higher edu
cation, in cooperation with
the Foreign Policy associa
tion. New York.)
The political and military
lineup of powers in the Mid
dle East has undergone some
important shifts in the last
' six months-not only between
East and West, but also with
in the Arab bloc. This picture
has become even more con
fused in the past few weeks
as the Mid-East power con
test reached out to neighbor
ing Iran, and aroused concern
in Turkey and Pakistan as
well as in Western capitals.
The always fluid Middle
Eastern situation has never
been more uncertain, experts
agree.
The July 14 revolution in
Iraq and the simmering civil
war in Lebanon removed
from power two governments
committeed to the West. U.S.
troop landings in Lebanon
failed to accomplish any last
ing political objectives for
the West, most observers
agree, although simultaneous
British intervention in Jordan
is believed to have saved the
pro -Western government of
King Hussein.
Serious Blow to West
One of the most serious
blows to Western strategy in
this part of the world was
Iraq's virtual rejection in
mid-February of the Western
sponsored Baghdad pact. This
military alliance linked Iraq
(the only Arab member) with
the NATO powers, Turkey
and Britain; with the South
east Asia treaty partner Pak
istan; and with Iraq's pro-
Western neighbor, Iran. I he
United States, although not a
formally a member, has been
a vigorous supporter of the
pact and participates in all
! its committees.
Iraq's rejection of alliances
with non-Arab nations is an
obvious blow to the Baghdad
Pact. At the same time, Iraq
has turned to Moscow for
military and economic aid.
An estimated 15,000 to 20,-
000 tons of Russian arms
have already arrived in Iraq.
It is this combination of fac
tors which raises alarm
amonz the pact nations.
Iraq's Communist-financed
military build up, and grow
ing Communist influence in
Iraq's economic and perhaps
political life, are disturbing
to Turkey and to Iran be
cause 'of the recently revived
"Kurdistan" question.
Semi-nomadic People
The Kurds are a semi-
nomadic people scattered
among Turkey, Syria, Iraq,
Iran and the Soviet Union.
The revolutionary constitu
tion of Iraq recognizes the
"national rights" of these
people a policy which, if
brought to its logical conclu
sion, could lead to the par
tial dismemberment of some
Middle Eastern nations. Many
observers detect Moscow's
hand in current agitation for
Kurdish nationalism.
Recent developments have
also produced new stresses
within the Arab bloc. As the
revolutionary government in
Iraq has leaned further in
Moscow's direction, the Unit
ed Arab Republic of Egypt
and Syria seems to have had
second thoughts about its
long long friendly relations
with Moscow.
Since 1955 President Gam
al Abdel Nasser has depend
ed heavily on the Soviet bloc
for arms, markets for Egyp
tian cotton and economic as
sistance. Communist party ac
tivity in Egypt and Syria has
been sharply restricted
throughout this period, but
not until recently has the
UAR permitted open criti
cism of Moscow's "interfer
ence" in Arab internal af
fairs. It is difficult, in other
words, if not dangerous, to
try to explain current Middle
Eastern developments in sim
ple terms. In one sense, the
contest is between East and
West, for influence if not
dominance in the area. In an
other sense, the issue is be
tween various Arab leaders
and interests. The challenge
to the West is to sort out the
various pieces, and to develop
policies to deal with the total
complex problem Arab na
tionalism as well as commu
nism; regional economic prob
lems as well as military ques
tions. Arab Nationalism
Nasser has long been iden
tified as the chief spokesman
and inspirational leader of
Arab nationalism-a program
which, in his mind, will ulti
mately unite the Arabic
speaking peoples of Africa
and the Middle East, from
the Atlantic to the Persian
Gulf.
Nasser's leadership of Pan
Arabism has been acknowl
edged by Algerian revolution
aries, Tunisian politicians and
even by spokesmen for the
feudel government of Saudi
Arabia. His leadership rests
primarily, however, on his
appeal to the masses through
out the Arab world.
The revolutionary regime
in Iraq has been equivocal in
this respect. Known pro-Nasser
elements in the Army and
government have been purg
ed and in some cases, brought
to trial. Recent cabinet shake
ups and military and econom
ic aid deals with Moscow, in
the opinion of Western ob
servers, have actually moved
Iraq further from the Nasser
camp and closer to the So
viet Union.
Balancing the Trend
As if to balance this trend,
Nasser's controlled press has
launched its first vigorous
Today & Tomorrow
By Walter
THE WESTERN
INVITATION
At least in its method the
Allied note to the Soviet Un
ion, which was published this
m weeK, is new
TsL " It is an invi
tation to hold
a conference
about Ger-
m a n y which
does not lay
down in ad
vance what
nan Ko a n ?
Walter " " 7
Lippmann what cann o t
be discussed, what must be
agreed to.
This does not mean that the
Allies no longer have posi
tions from which they will
not retreat, as for example
that they will not withdraw
their troops in West Berlin
until the whole of Berlin be
comes once again the capital
of a reunited Germany. The
novelty and the difference
in the present approach is
that the note is not a broad
side in a -propaganda game
but a simple and uncondition
al invitation to confer and to
negotiate.
This would not have been
possible if the Western pow
ers had not reached the con
clusion that there are in fact
subjects to negotiate about.
Behind the simple words of
the note there lies the fact
that we have now agreed
among ourselves that we can
protect our vital interests in
Europe while we negotiate on
a number of subjects which
have until recently been re
garded as untouchable.'
This is the so-called new
flexibility. It covers, for ex
ample, the idea that reunifi
cation need not begin with
free elections although some
day the reunited Germany
must have free elections. It
covers the idea that it is pos
sible to negotiate de facto
with the East German state.
It covers the idea that it is
possible to discuss a regional
agreement for the reduction
and limitation of armaments
in Central Europe.
- .
WE MUST now wait to see
how the Kremlin reacts.
It can accept the invitation
to confer and negotiate, re
serving its own position for
the conference which must,
if it is to be at all useful, be
carried on confidentially in
the preliminary and explora
tory stages. Or the Kremlin
can issue a new public broad
side of its demands and its
terms, in which case it will
be painfully clear that the
Kremlin does . not now want
to negotiate. Or the Russians
can negotiate confidentially,
say through Mr. Macmillan
or through diplomatic chan
nels, about the circumstances
of the conference to which
the West has invited them.
. Let us hope that in making
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criticism of Communist med
dling in the internal political
affairs of the Arab states. At
the same time, Cairo propa
ganda against the "imperial
ist" western powers was no
ticeably softened.
There has been no obvious
breach in political or econom
ic relations between Cairo
Lippmann
up their minds how to react
the Russians will not draw
the wrong conclusion from
the fact of Secretary Dulle's
illness. The wrong conclusion
would be that the less Mr.
Dulles is able to participate,
the more flexible and the
more disunited will be West
ern policy. The exact opposite
is the truth. The less able Mr.
Dulles is to over-see Ameri
can and Allied policy and to
cover it with his special au
thority, the more rigid will
be the American position, the
more intransigent will be Mr.
Adenauer. It is Mr. Dulles
who has made possible the
new flexibility in Western
policy, and much may depend
upon whether Mr. Mikoyan
realized that when he was
here and has made it plain
to Mr. Khrushchev.
THE Russians could easily
misunderstand this crucial
fact. They have their own
long standing stereotype that
Mr. Dulles is unyielding and
implacable. They have high
ly simplified views of human
character and of human be
havior, and they have a rathr
er dangerously simpl i f i e d
view of Mr. Dulles, who is
in fact a complicated man.
The Russians may not be able
to appreciate quickly enough
that their view of Mr. Dulles
as a mbnolithic character is
a mistaken one.
They may be confirmed in
their prejudice by much that
is being printed in this coun
try. In many quarters Mr.
Dulles ,is being pictured as
a kind of granite monument
which never chances and
never bends no matter what
the winds that blow. This is
mythology, and although it is
intended as adulation, it does
less than justice to this world
ly .and experienced man. The
myth has little relation to
the fact that John Foster
Dulles is and always has been
a very practical man who
measures the strength of the
forces about him and sets his
course accordingly.
TF THE Kremlin does not
misjudge the situation,
there will be a conference.
If there is one, it is, of course,
imrjrobable. indeed
ble, that the conference will
produce a grand settlement
of the German Question. But.
on the other hand, once both
sides commit themselves to
a conference, thev cannot
break it up in total and in
angry disagreement without
running the gravest risks.
Once they meet, they cannot
do less than to work out ar
rangements about Berlin and
the two Germanvs which.
though tentative and provi
sional, could evolve in the
course of time into somethins
more acceptable and more
permanent.
Copyright 1959. New York
Herald Tribune Inc.
and Moscow. Nor have
Cairo's relations with . the
West returned to pre-Suez
war normality although a
number of outstanding eco
nomic issues have been re
solved through negotiation.
In the rest of the Arab
world, Nasser's pan-Arabism
has made little progress m
the last six months. A jointly
financed regional develop
ment bank was launched by
the Arab league (excluding
Iraq) on Jan. 12, and some re
gional economic cooperation
will undoubtedly follow. But
there have been no political
moves toward Arab unity
since the kingdom of Yemen
federated itself with the Unit
ed Arab Republic of Egypt
and Syria, March 8, 1958.
Grumbling Heard
There has, in fact, been
some grumbling among dissi
dent politicians in the Syrian
Try and Stop Me
-By BENNETT CERF
"POSH" is a very British word indeed, defined by Webster as
-f "smart and elegant in appearance." Know its origin? -Well,
in the good old days, when British aristocrats were boarding
ships to go and rule India,
the legend, was that they
should book cabins on the
port side on the way out
(thereby getting the shady
side on the hot trip through
the Suez Canal) and, by the
same token, nail down star
board cabins on the way
home. In other words, "Port
Outside, Starboard Home,"
and the abbreviation,
P-O-S-H, became identified
with the top dogs of the for
eign service. All clear?
Mr. Haydn's wife left the
house to take the family car out of the garage. A moment later he
heard a horrendous crash. "Did you knock it down ?" he called fear
fully. "No," she called back, "just over."
1959, by Bennett Cert Distributed by Ring Feature Syndicate
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province of the UAR. And
many observers believe that
the military coup in the Su
dan last November success
fully sidetracked pro-Nasser
forces in that country.
Moves and counter - moves
among Arab leaders, in other
words, leave unanswered
such questions as the future
course-or leadership-of pan
Arabism, and the role Mos
cow is playing in this rivalry.
Nasser's new friendliness to
the West prompts some ex
perts to recommend taking
advantage of this turn of
events, and to use Nasser as
a counterweight to Commu
nist pressures and influence
in the area. Others point out
that Nasser has proved, even
to Moscow, that he is not easy
to '"use," and that he is still
tied militarily and economi
cally to Moscow.
Yet another group argues
that Nasser is near the end of
the road as dominant Arab
leader-that Western interests
would not be served by prop
ping him up economically or
politically.
Policy To Be Willing
It is apparently present
U.S. policy to be willing to
"normalize" what our rela
tions with Cairo, to. negotiate
regarding the release of froz
en Egyptian funds in this
country, and to consider the
resumption of modest aid pro
grams for community devel
opment in Egypt. The State
department also welcomed
the shift in Cairo's propagan
da line. None of this, how
ever, has been construed as
warmth or eagerness on
Washington's part.
U. S. policies toward Iraq
are equally difficult to proj
ect. Iraq's withdrawal from
the Baghdad Pact is obvious
ly a blow at the pact's origi
nal conception-an unbroken
"northern tier" of allies,
stretching from the Mediter-
idltr
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ranean to Pakistan in South
Asia, and insulating the Arab
Middle East from Soviet bor
der pressure.
On the other hand, observ
ers point out that the Bagh
dad pact did not prevent the
Soviet Union from "leapfrog
ging" into it; arms-for-cotton
deal with Nasser, nor has it
prevented growing Commu
nist pressure from within the
Arab states-the kind of pres
sure now apparent in Iraq,
and which the Cairo press has
recently criticized in regional
terms.
Concept Outlined
The original concept of the
Baghdad pact, in other words,
may have outlived its useful
ness under any circum-
stances. Military security
against aggression, however,
remains a major concern in
Washington, and in the capi
tals of Turkey, Iran and Pak
istan. During January confer
ences of the Baghdad Fact
Ministerial council, in Kara
chi, the United States rein
forced its commitments to
help defend Turkey, Iran and
Pakistan from external Com
munist aggression. Turkey
and Iran in particular, how
ever, are just as concerned
about , aggression which may
be neither Communist nor ex
ternal. Any military explosion in
the Middle East - whether a
Kurdish nationalist rebellion
or a conflict between Arab
states-could spread quickly,
involving possibly Israel, and
perhaps other neighboring
states. Russian arms and agi
tation contribute to both the
possibility and the danger of
such developments.
Automatic Defeat
Furthermore, any close
partnership between an Arab
nationalist government and
Moscow-short of actual Com
munist take over-is an auto
matic defeat- of Western ob
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jectives in the region.
Yet either of these two pos
sibilities is covered by pres
ent U.S. commitments to Tur
key, Iran, Israel or any other
Middle Eastern nation. An en
tirely new treaty would be
required, the State depart
ment points out, unless the
"aggression" is clearly spon
sored by "international com
munism." Washington has offered no
new treaty. In recent weeks,
however, the United States
successfully discouraged Iran
from negotiating a new non
aggression treaty and eco
nomic aid agreement with the
Soviet Union.
Military, Economic Aid
The Soviet Union is using
both military aid and econom
ic assistance, as well as inter
nal Communist agitation, to
gain influence in the Middle
East. The West has also used
military and economic assist
ance to maintain its influence
and to restrain Communist
penetration.
The present level of East
West competition, according
to many observers, may leave
the United States no alterna
tive but stepped-up invest
ments on both fronts -military
and economic.
Even if U.S. policy makers
were to adopt this approach,
they would still face other
difficult questions. For exam
ple, what is a proper balance
between military and eco
nomic aid? How much -in
long-range terms-can actually
be accomplished by military
agreements, in view of the
festering economic and poli
tical problems of the region?
What positive steps can the
United States take to insure
that Arab nationalism is a
constructive force, rather
than a tool of Communism?
What common cause can the
United States find with non
Communist Arab leadership?
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Mrs. Jordan had to get an
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