.f o
1 M
1
!
m
(Lyinnibeir Dindtuisliiry
Biggest Question
Is Credit for
Building Homes
(Editor's nole: The follow
ing article discusses what's
ahead this year for the lum
ber industry, It is written
by Robert M- Ingram, pres
ident of the National Lum
ber Manufacturers associa
tion and president and gen
eral manager of the E. C.
Miller Cedar Lumber com
pany, Aberdeen, Wash.)
By ROBERT M. INGRAM
Lumber manufacturers have
many reasons to be optimistic
about their business prospects
for the year ahead.
The economy appears to
have recovered almost com
pletely from the recession of
recent months and the current
upsurge in business generally
can be expected to continue
well into 1959.
The biggest question mark,
of course, is credit-particularly
with regard to new home
construction.
Certainly, for the next few
months at least, we may ex
pect the many pressures now
at work to restrict the avail
ability of mortgage credit.
Powerful Forces
Among the powerful forces
involved here are recent in
creases in Federal Reserve
Board's discount rate-the fee
charged for loans to commer
cial banks.
Another factor is the pros
pect of .a federal budget defi
cit of $12 billion or more for
the current fiscal year.
These developments and
competition from other seg
ments of the economy for
available money supplies may
make it more difficult to ob
tain FHA-insured and VA
guaranted home financing
during the early months of
1959.
On the other hand, the new
Congress which convenes this
month is likely to waste little
time in considering legisla
tion designed to enlarge the
role of government - backed
mortgage credit in the over
all housing picture.
Too Early to Predict
It is still too early to pre;
diet how far Congress will go.
But, obviously, many of the
nrnhlemq facing home build
ers todav would be eliminated
if pur lawmakers were to re
move the artificially low in
ID'S
A $$ r3 n$k m re
1 1 MEtfSfeR
II NX
u
terest ceilings on FHA-VA-backed
mortgages.
Instead of being tied to ar
bitrary limits, these interest
rates should be allowed to
fluctuate according to current
market conditions in the
same manner that convention
al interest rates go up or
down depending on the an
cient but irrevocable law of
supply and demand.
It is encouraging to note
that a number of top govern
ment officials, including the
chairman of the President's
Council of Economic Advisers
and the Undersecretary of the
Treasury, recently spoke out
in favor of flexible interest
rates on government -backed
housing loans.
Conventional Financing
With the prospect of a tight
FHA-VA mortgage market-at
least during the early, months
of the coming year - conven
tional financing should ac
Paqes 1-6
Medford
MEDFORD, OREGON, THURSDAY, JANUARY 1, 1959
RUSH FOR NEWS This New York newspaper dealer is having a busy morning
indeed, as commuters crowd in to buy the first local papers available in 20 days.
All of New York's seven major dallies had been completely shut off by a dehvery
men's strike.
Whatever you've been wanting ... you'll find in these impressive groups of
fashions that have all been marked down to clear . . . now they can be yours
for a mere fraction of the original price . . . we MUST make room for new
Spring merchandise arriving daily. Shop early for best selection.
THE BEST VALUES YET IN . . .
Coats 0 Dresses
Sweaters
Raincoats 0
Sportswear
Blouses
Robes
Bras
0 Accessories
Sale
FASHION CENTER
Slip
count for a greater share of
home construction during
1959.
Since the basic demand for
housing is still one of the
strongest potentials of the
economy, it seems reasonable
to expect that private non
farm housing starts next year
will equal, and perhaps ex
ceed, the 1.1 million units in
1958.
Judging by the replies 1o a
recent nationwide survey con
ducted by the National Lum
ber Manufacturers association
among leading producers of
lumber and wood products,
private non-farming housing
starts this year may increase
3 to, 4 per cent above the level
last year.
If 1959 turns out to be a
reasonably good year in home
construction, it seems likely
that the lumber industry will
produce and sell as much or
more lumber than in 1958.
Fashions ... All From Regular
Stock, at Low, Low Prices!
0 Formals
Skirts
Jewelry
0 Girdles
0 Handbags
0 Gowns
Begins Friday at 9:30 a.m.
We Are A Charge Plate Store
Buy Now! Pay in February
ALL SALES FINAL!
At this writing, lumber
manufacturers believe that
1959 production may be up
something like 3,8 per cent
from 1958's expected total of
about 32 billion board feet.
Prediction Assumes
This prediction assumes
that several markets, in addi
tion to housing, will expand
next year.
According to the NLMA out
look survey, non-residential
construction will use 2 to 3
per cent more lumber than in
1958, farm demand may rise
about the same percentage,
use of lumSer by the furni
ture industry will increase
nearly 4 per cent end railroad
consumption will gain be
tween 1 and 2 per cent.
Exports and the use of
lumber for wood containers
are expected to be about the
same next year as in 1958.
Especially encouraging is
the prospect that demand for
No. 243
Tribune
' ' '''''' 4 '
wood paneling will increase
nearly 5 per cent.
Lumber manufacturers ex
pect their cost of doing busi
ness to increase about 4 per
cent.
Prospects Rated
Many producers say their
prospects for obtaining an
adequate supply of raw mate
rials next year are only fair;
others rate their prospects
poor.
The industry plans to spend
about the same amount for
new plants and equipment
next year as in 1958. Also, the
level of employment is ex
pected to figure out about the
same as in 1958.
If current indications are
sustained in the months ahead
lumber manufacturers may
find their gross sales up 6 to
7 per cent and their profits
after taxes up 5 per cent from
Ihe unusually depressed level
of 1958. Net profits after
taxes averaged only 0.9 per
cent of sales during the first
id U
Vacation
LUKUKI00
KVf f if . f i j'ii ff
M. ' A T 7 Jf Tf IB'fJI
no
Another IM RIESTT SHUNT
i
YOUR FRIENDLY
CREDIT JEWELER
q mm 5 d
six months last year.
At this point I would like to
emphasize the need for labor
to understand that the lum
ber and wood products indus
try has just beeen through a
most difficult year.
Perhafis the most signifi
cant figure, in 1959 will be
lumber consumption. NLMA's
survey of leading manufac
turers indicated that con
sumption this year will total
about 35.8 billion board feet
3.8 per cent above 1958's ex
pected figure of 34.5 billion
feet.
Influence Production
If the many factors that
influence lumber production
and consumption can be
lumped together and their
probable effect appraised in a
single senfence, I would say
this ykar will be a moderately
good year for the lumber in
dustry. There is no doubt that our
competitors - the manufactur
ers of steel, brick, aluminum
Cy U If 111! II I
Time Will Soon Be
mmim
l.lil
QUlLTtD!
TJT7
15 N.
I i " m fi ill I kvi r i iiiiiiaBiiii
' Miir- m Mr raws;.
11 , nwp
9
and plastics- will accelerate
their efforts to secure a great
er share of lumber's markets.
But the lumber industry
after more than a quarter-century
of inactivity on wood's
national promotion front is
finaly doing something in a
united way to counteract this
force.
Supplementing the out
standing merchandising - ad
vertising programs being con
ducted in behalf of specific
brands and species, lumber
manufacturers hvve launched
an overall National Wood
Promotion program to give
greater purpose and direction
to their regional campaigns.
Building Material
, This new national effect
will concentrate on promot
ing wood as a modern build
ing material-superior to its
competitors in strength, beau
ty, economy and versatility.
Our objective will be to
make the customer think fa
vorably of wood, thus improv
J I I VVy
Here Buy Now
JJ
( AJTn?PR nrvfi rvTHi
WE GIVE
GREEN
STAMPS
Central
ing the climate for accept
ance of regional and brand
name product promotion ef
forts. In its recent outlook sur
vey, the National Lumber
Manufacturers association re
ceived a special mandate to
go all-out in this direction.
Asked to suggest what the
association could do to bolster
industry prospects for the
coming year, lumbermen re
sponding to the survey gave
We Will Be
CLOSED
FRIDAY & SATURDAY
January 2nd & 3rd
FOR INVENTORY
Sims Cycle & Hobby Shop
b 'J c "i
on Andy's Easy
-
7
95
top priority to advertising
and promotion.
HELP US!
We Need Clothing, Shoes,
Dishes, Furniture. We Pick Up.
HELP OTHERS!
The
Salvation Army
SPring 3-7335
Credit Terms
I I MONE I 1
I U J S010.T0
Now and Have This 1 1
s i r i
raid ror in i ime
For Your Vacation
scemsnf mil
r m . FSil l
ImtlTtt a
ocb
Pyr chaser
- ent.Hes
fo replace f
ooditiott
'-) Sr tt
USE
ANDY'S
1
i