FOTXHTraW MKDrOHD (OREGON) MAIL TRIBUNE
Monday. Julr 1. 1SSS
1955 Expected To Be
Light Year for Polio;
'Reservoir' Built Up
Br DELOS SMITH
United Pratt Science Editor
New York U.R) This year is
likely to be the lightest year for
polio since 1951 , but scientists
devoted to the study of the be
havior of communicable ' dis
eases under "natural conditions"
think the Salk ; vaccine won't
have much if anything to do
with it.
The scientific reason why 1955
probably will be light is because
1952, 1953, and 1954 were all
heavy years 1952 was the heav
iest jn history. This means that
"natural conditions" have built
up a huge new "reservoir" of
people who can't get one or an
other or all the three types of
polio because they're immune.
This new "reservoir," the sci
entist figure, is made up main-
Rioters Attack
Morocco Governor
Casablanca, Morocco U.R)
Snipers fired from darkened
balconies, fires raged at a doz
en points and Frenchmen at
tacked their own governer-gen-
eral with their fists in not-torn
Casablanca last night.
Police authority was almost
at the vanishing point and a
full-scale race war threatened.
Thirty-two persons already
have been killed and 104 in-
jured in three days of street
fighting. '
The city was under martial
law and French troops patrolled
the streets day and night break
ing up demonstrations and riots.
Gilbert Grandval, French res
ident general who drew the ang
er of his countrymen here for
his liberal policy toward Mor
occans, was attacked at a fun
eral for six persons who were
killed by a bomb planted by
Moroccan terrorists Thursday.
A mob broke through police
lines as Grandval left the ser
vices and pounded him with fists
and tore his white uniform. He
broke free when troop rein
forcements arrived.
Earlier, police armed with
bazookas and machineguns fired
twice into crowds of Moroccan
rioters who defied the martial
rule. Five were killed and 18
wounded.
An estimated 10,000 French
men and Europeans were at the
funeral services where Grand
val was attacked. It was the
death of the six in the hnmh at
tack that started the latest wave
m - i i i t j
i viuwnsc, wiiioi always is
.just beneath the surface of this
tense African city.
The backgrounds for the fight
ing was Moroccan demands for
greater independence and dis
putes among the French them
elves on how much Independ
ence should be granted.
Tijuana, Mex. U.R ' Bette
Ford, one-time New York a. tress
model, will make her major bull
fight debut today.
ly of children. For every child
or adult who comes down
with polio there may be as many
as 100 who are having polio
which is too mild to be recog
nized. But these persons have
polio viruses in them their
body chemistry is building the
antibodies which will ward off
further attacks by the viruses.
Numbers Vary
Thus, a series of heavy years
is most likely to be followed by
a - few light years. The whole
history of polio demonstrates
that this is so. Most persons by1
the time they reach adulthood
have immunity to at least one
type of polio, sometimes to all
three. Childhood is the time
when this immunity is being ac
quired "under natural condi
tions" .and so the scientists cal
culate that the last three heavy
years gave "silent" polio cases
to thousands of children, along
with immunity.
The behavior - of circulating
polio viruses : so far this year
gave support to their reasoning.
In January, which is always a
low month, the. number , of re
ported cases were about the
same as last year. Then .this
year's number dropped steadily
and was far below last year's
by April. But polio cases are few
at that time of year the drop
indicated either that there was
more immunity in the general
population or there were fewer
polio viruses in circulation.
In April this year's number
of cases began shooting up and
soon was' running ahead of last
year's total, for the same time,
which showed,. that the viruses
were circulating in goodly num
ber. But within a few weeks,
this year's cases began decreas
ing in number and now are run
ning around 40 per cent below
last year's.
'Reservoir' Present .''-.'.''
What this meant to .three epi
demiologists canvassed by the
writer was that this year's cir
culating viruses were brought
up short by the new "reservoir"
of immune persons, mainly chil
dren. The polio season now is
past its height in the South arid,
perhaps significantly, the states
which had the most cases last
year, have shown the greatest
drop. In Texas for example, .76
cases were reported for the week
ended July 9. For the compar
able week last year the total
was 146.
The reason why the epidem
iologists wouldn't credit the
Salk vaccine is that not enough
children , have had "shots" to
make the difference. In the
South some 2,000,000 six, seven,
and eight year-olders have had
one "shot," which is but a frac
tion of the most susceptible ages,
from one to 18. Since the chance
of any given child getting polio
even during a heavy polio epi
demic is mathematically slight
and since the known' effective
ness of the Salk vaccine ranges
from 50 to 80 per cent, the ef
fect of only 2,000,000 "shots"
and first "shots" at that are at
present "immeasurable."
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W fvf h " IK'. . vl :
DRESSED IN NATIVE costume, four hopefuls for Miss Universe contest arrive in Long
Beach, Cai. From left, Leonor -Carcache, Miss Ecuador; Carmen Laura Betancourt, Miss
Puerto Rico; Isabel Salri, Miss Argentina; Hanya Bedoun, Miss Lebanon. (International)
Preparation of Crop Estimate
Reports Closely Guarded Secret
Washington U.R) You could
make a killing in the market if
you could just get advance infor
mation on the Agriculture de
partment's periodic crop esti
mates. .
But stop dreaming.
No secrets are more closely
guarded than the estimated pro
duction of such speculative
crops as corn, wheat, cotton,
oats,- soybeans, livestock, and
many others that go to make up
the nation's store of food and
fiber. .. (
If you want to test the trufh
of this", and are willing to spend
some time in mild captivity, just
walk into the Agricultural Esti
mates division while a crop re
port is being prepared.'
, You'H find yourself a captive
until the report has been pub
lished. No exceptions are made.
Whoever wanders ; into the divi
sion at such -a moment and
that goes for the Agriculture
secretary himself is required
to stay put once inside, the crop
reporting board's working quar
ters during preparation of a re
port. :
It's been that way for 50 years
and in that time there has been
no pre-release leak of an Agri
culture department, production
estimate. ;.
The ultra secrecy surrounding
the crop report stems from the
cotton scandal of 1905. A high
official of what was then called
the Bureau of Statistics, whieh
prepared crop estimates, used
advance knowledge, of what the
government report would show
to speculate in the cotton fu
tures market.
Arranged Signals
He passed on his information
to accomplices by means of sig
nals involving movement of win
dow shades. A court trial then
brought out; ' that the official's
share of profits from use of in
formation thus leaked amounted
to more than $70,000. He was
fined $5,000.
Congress ordered the depart
ment to keep crop reports secret
until time for their release to
everyone. The. department ac
cordingly started what has be
come known as the "lockup"
preceding crop reports.
There are an average of three
lockups a month. Some months
there , are only two, but in De
cember there are five.All in
volve crop; reports that have
speculative value.
the release time of reports is
tied in with the opening and
closing of markets. - For exam
ple, Congress sets the release
.Couple Walk Away
From 'Crash Landing,
Lone Pine, Calif. U.R)
George Hall, 45, and his wife,
Marzelle, 42, of Los Angeles,
walked away from a crash-land-ins;
of their small plane Satur
day at Grant airstrip 30 miles
southwest of here.
Hall, who was bruised and
shaken up, said his engine fail
ed. Mrs. Hall was flown to Por
terville where - she was treated
for lip and nose cuts.
.Dead Unt Sunday Classified Is at
noon Saturday. 10 a.m. Monday for
Monday. othar days 5:30 oreyiouaday
If on a
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hour for the cotton renort at 11
aim. to coincide with the closing
of the Liverpool cotton market.
The department releases general
crop reports simultaneously
with, or after, the closing of the
New York Stock and Chicago
Grain markets.
When the lockup begins de
pends on the volume of work to
be done in preparing the report.
The cotton lockup begins at ,1
a.m. . the day of the report. The
lockup for last Monday's general
crop report began at 5 a.m. The
time for other lockups varies.
Here is how reports like last
Monday's general crop report
are prepared: V
The 41 field offices for the 48
states make up their reports and
recommend them to the crop re
porting' board.
The recommendations are air
mailed to a locked box in care
of the office of the Secretary of
Agriculture. The box also has
two locks. The secretary's repre
sentative'has the key to one and
the chairman of the crop report
ing board has the other.
The Lockup ,
About 20 minutes before the
board's working, quarters are
locked up, the board's chairman
and secretary, the secretary's
representative, and one or more
members of the field force pro
ceed under guard to the box,
unlock it, and bring the unop
ened mail to the working quar
ters. ..
; The quarters, Wing 4 of the
department's south building, is
locked, with guards posted out
side at each end.
Inside, telephones and inter-,
com systems are disconnected,
the Venetian blinds at all win
dows are closed and locked by
means, of a slotted rod which
then is sealed. The technicians
study the state recommenda
tions, arrive at production esti
mates for each state, and pass
the information along, to the
board chairman who determines
the final estimate. , ,
Tablet Prepared .
The. information then goes to
computers and tabulators who
prepare tables which are sten
ciled and mimeographed. The
entire report then is signed 15
to 20 minutes before it is issued.
The ' signer must be the secre
tary, undersecretary, or one of
the assistant secretaries.
The doors are then unlocked
and the report is given to news
men standing by open tele
phones to their offices. The re
port thereupon . is : transmitted
throughout the country, and tie
lockup is over. ; '
But not until then, as Arthur
M. Hyde of Missouri found out
several years ago when he was
secretary. He came a bit early
to sign the report. After signing
he picked up his hat and said
he was leaving. The board chair
man told him he couldn't. Hyde
tried to call his office. The tele
phone was dead. He stayed until
release time.
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