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Forecasts
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United Press Full Leased Wire . . '.. r , - 37Nqtr ' United Press Full Leased Wire
49th Year 14 Pages
MEDFORD, OREGON, FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1954
Price 5e
No. 244
General Business -
Increase for '55
Economist Roger W. Babson sees a general business increase
In, his forecast for 1955, which appears below. Babson sees encour
agement for retail sales, food prices to firm later in 1955, the wage
trend in organized industry to move higher and a spread in the
uranium "craze" which could exceed the Gold Rush of 1849. He
seefs no relief in income taxes until the election year of 1956 and
forecasts no crash by the stock market during the coming year.
As to World War III, Babson says the initiative in international
affair? still rests with Russia but feels the Kremlin is not yet ready
for an all-out attack in 1955.
By ROGER W. BABSON
1. GENERAL BUSINESS. Despite wails from some quarters,
1954 saw a drop in the average Physical Volume of Business of
only 5 per cent from the record year 1953. 1955 could see a rise
of about the same amount. Certainly, the direction of business
until mid-1955 will be upward.
2. BUSINESSMEN WILL WAKE UP. During 1954 many busi
nessmen rediscovered the meaning of the word "competition."
Sales will continue to be made only with real effort in most lines.
3. CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK. Consumption in a number of
lines has been proceeding at a more rapid rate than has produc
tion. I forecast a better record in early 1955 for both steel and
automobiles
4. TEXTILE INDUSTRY. Textile industry operated at extreme
ly low levels throughout most of 1954. Coal and railroad equip
ment also exerted a strong downpull. I forecast that the textile
and coal industry will be in a recovery phase after their long stay
in the doldrums.
5. PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION. I forecast that home building
and general construction will be somewhat lower in 1955 than in
1954, but this important industry should still operate at high
levels next year.
. 6. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION. I forecast that public construc
tion will increase during 1955. This should mean a rise in the out
put of cement.
, 7. AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT. This industry has been
suffering from a decline in demand, but should now improve.
Government-sponsored planting curtailment and crop loans have
reduced free supplies, and may make for. higher agricultural
prices later in 1955. j '
8. ARMAMENT INDUSTRY. The armament industry will still
be one of the main floors beneath the economy. The electrical and
chemical industries will move at a rate close to that of 1954.
9. OTHER INDUSTRIES. I am somewhat optimistic on cloth
ing, aircraft manufacturing, airline transportation, office equip
ment, electricity output, petroleum production, natural gas and
shoes. I am also fairly bullish on rubber, paper, electrical equip
ment, certain types of building, and nonferrous metals.
10. WEATHER CONDITIONS. It is foolish for me to attempt
to forecast rains, droughts, frosts, etc., for any special section.
However, taking the nation as a whole, I look for better .weather
in 1955. .
11. RETAIL SALES. I forecast that the outlook for retail sales
is encouraging, at least through the first half of 1955.
12. PROFITS. Stiffening competition is chipping away at the
profit margin. Return on invested capital is in a long-term down
trend. The first few years after World War II were the golden
years for the novice in business and for the inefficient. Those days
are gone for awhile.
13. SELECTIVITY. Higher labor and other costs, plus intensi
fied competition, will continue during 1955. I forecast a high de
gree of selectivity in the effect of this trend on individual activi
ties and companies. Victory will be for the. nimble and .for the
strong.'' -.-.-t-; ; :" .
" 14. DIVIDENDS. Recent high expenditures for new plant, and
machinery have left some concerns with very high depreciation
charges. As new capital commitments are cut and depreciation re
mains high, cash inflow could expand. Such companies should be
able to pay out in dividends a higher percentage of earnings in
1955 than in recent years, notwithstanding a moderate profits
shrinkage.
15. INVENTORIES. Inventories have been permitted to run
down during 1954. As total business expands, there will be a ten
dency to replace reduced stocks, especially during the first half
of 1955. Total manufacturers' inventories, however, may build up
more rapidly than total business inventories. I forecast that total
wholesale and total retail inventories will show little change from
1954 levels.
16. PRICES OF MANUFACTURED GOODS. Even with the ex
pected pickup in demand, I see no sharp markup in industrial
prices next year. Overall supplies are generally ample. Hence, I
forecast that industrial prices in 1955 will show little change from
recent levels.
17. FOOD PRICES. Food prices may firm later in 1955. The
strong move into government crop loans this year has made free
supplies of most agricultural items less burdensome. I forecast
that new advertising programs by canners and other great food
distributors will help farmers, stock raisers, and fruit growers.
18. CONSUMER INCOME. Consumer income will hold at sat
isfactory levels. Most goods should move readily into consuming
channels.
19. LIVING COSTS. I forecast that during 1955 living costs
will show little overall change from present levels. There may be
some firming during the first half, but the late months may again
witness a minor softening. ' '
20. RENTS. ETC I forecast rental expenses may edge some
what higher; clothing costs should be steady to moderately higher.
There is small chance that food expenses can be greatly reduced.
21. MONEY SUPPLIES. I forecast that money supplies will be
ample for all legitimate business needs during -1955. With little
likelihood of business getting out of hand on the upside, credit
easing is more likely than credit curtailment in 1955.
22. INFLATION. Fears, or perhaps hopes, of an inflationary
boom should be buried. Barring outbreak of war, our productive
capacity is sufficiently large to meet all demands for goods. I fore
cast that no runaway inflation is probable, even if the money
managers increase the supply of money or ease credit.
23. INTEREST RATES. Until the Treasury finds a way to bal
ance the budget, hold business at high levels and unemployment
at a minimum, I forecast little likelihood of higher interest rates.
24. BOND PRICES. With the possible exception of tax-free
bonds, I see no reason for increased bond, prices in 1955. I fore
cast an increase in the issuance of tax-free revenue bonds.
25. STOCK PRICES. After so sharp a rise, the market could
have a reaction; but I am forecasting no crash in 1955 such as we
had in 1929. In fact, the situation changed for the better. Oct.
11, 1954.
26. WAGES. I forecast that the wage trend in organized indus
try will continue to move higher at least in the first half of 1955.
During the first half year, when business will be improving, the
labor chieftains will also be quick to resort to the strike weapon.
27. OTHER LABOR GAINS. I forecast that the heavy guns, of
the labor bigwigs will be trained on the guaranteed annual wage,
shorter work week, and more pensions. With a better congression
al control of appointments to the National Labor Relations Board,
the decisions of that body will swing more toward labor than
toward management.
28. NEW INVENTIONS. These will mostly be a labor-saving
type. I forecast a marked increase in automation and cybernetics,
and other marvelous changes in production methods.
29. EMPLOYMENT. Unemployment outlook is brighter, since
business will be on the upgrade during the first half. I forecast
that local and seasonal employment will still prove a knotty
problem. 7
30. FAILURES. The salient busines characteristic of 1955 will
be bitter competition. Many companies already weakened by com
petitive conditions will no longer be able, to keep afloat. I forecast
a rise in both the number and the total value of failures during
1955. - ' ' - - - '
31. MERGERS. I forecast that mergers and consolidations will
be encouraged by federal officials, if, by merging, a weak company
can be saved. But while every effort will be made to prevent
(Continued ea Page 2)
Medford Man Killed
In Collision of Two
Vehicles Thursday
Fred J. McPherson
Victim of Accident
Fred Joyce McPherson, 66,
GeBauer apartments, was killed
in a two-vehicle collision at the
intersection of McAndrews and
Biddle roads at about 2:15 p. m.
yesterday.
McPherson was driving a pick
up truck. Driver of the other
car, a ranch wagon, was Mrs.
Dorothy Tuttle, 29, of 3074 Bel
linger rd. A passenger in the
pickup was William V. Johnson,
65, of 5 Valley View dr.
Mrs. Tuttle and Johnson were
taken to Community hospital by
Medford ambulance service,
where she was treated for shock,
bruises and an arm, injury, and
he was treated for a .broken
wrist. Both were in "good" con
dition this morning.
Fails to Stop
State police said Mrs. Tuttle
was driving east on McAndrews
rd - She told officers she at
tempted to stop at the stop sign,
but was unable to do so, and
the two vehicles collided.
Officers reported that the pick
up truck was driving south on
Biddle rd and that the force of
the impact spun it around to the
left, and forced it some 40 feet
from the point of impact. The
driver was thrown from the cab
against the side of a concrete
lined irrigation ditch.
Mrs. Tuttle's car also was spun
around by the impact, and was
facing west when the investi
gating officer arrived. Both ve
hicles were badly damaged and
had to be towed away.
In Lumber Business
Mr. McPherson was born in
Schuyler, Neb., on Feb. 18, 1888,
and had been a resident of Med
ford since about 1915. He was
engaged in the lumber business,
and earlier operated a men's
clothing store here until 1932.
He was a member of the Masonic
lodge.
Survivors include. Mrs. Mc
Pherson and their son, Fred N.
McPherson, and several nephews
living in Portland. " . '
Funeral arrangements are be
ing made by. Perl funeral home.
Woman Hospitalized
State police also reported that
Mrs.' Alfred J. Kittock, 40, Klam
ath Falls, was treated for in
juries at Ashland hospital yester
day afternoon, after a car driven
by her husband collided with one
driven by George Frederick
Bradley, 63, Box 12, Jackson
ville. The collision was on the
Greensprings highway about
eight miles east of its junction
with Highway 99, officers said.
Both vehicles were seriously
damaged. .
Officers cited Bradley for fail
ure to -operate on the right side
of the highway. .
Father, Son Hurt
' Joe Everett Robertson, 30,
route 1 box 391, Central Point,
and his son, Curtis, 2, were in
jured about , noon today in an
auto accident near the Richfield
truck station on Highway 99.
Officers said that a sedan driv
en by Robertson, proprietor of
Don's drive-in,: Central Point,
struck the rear , of a concrete
mixer truck operated by Lester
Lane Dusenberry, 40, 2810 Elli
ott ave, Medford.
Robertson suffered forehead
cuts and chest bruises and his
son a cut lip. They were taken
to Community hospital by Med
ford Ambulance service. Dusen
berry reportedly was not hurt.
Hammarskjold Talks
With Anthony Eden
London (U.R) U.N. Secretary
general Dag Hammarskjold con
ferred with Foreign Secretary
Anthony Eden today on his deli
cate mission to Peiping to obtain
freedom for 11 imprisoned Amer
ican and U.N." prisoners held by
the Reds.
Timed with the secretary's ar
rival was an announcement by
Moscow Radio that the Chinese
Reds had sentenced 12 alleged
"American Chiang Kai-shek
agents" to death and two others
to life imprisonment. .
It appeared that all of the 14
were Chinese.
Hammarskjold received a
warm airport greeting from
Huang Hsiang, the Communist
Chinese envoy to London upon
his arrival.
Weather
FORECAST: Generally cloudy
with occasional rain ' in val
leys and snow In mountains
. above 4.000 feet through Sat
urday. Low tonight 42. High
Saturday 50.
! , , Temp.
Highest Yesterday 49 .
Lowest this Morning 41
Irec. to 4:30 a.m. Today 57
StMU
tag
I
TRIPLETS SHOWN OFF The? Rolls triplets, born at Sacred' ed 3 pounds 13 ounces at birth, but reportedly 'gained an
Heart hospital Wednesday morning, pose above for their por- ounce this morning. The middle one (in center incubator)
traits. The parents, Mr. and Mrs.- James W. Rolls, 512 Summit : weighed.4 pounds 6 ounces, and the largest weighed 4 pounds
ave., still have not decided definitely on names for the three 8 ounces. All are said to be doing well. The nurses are Mrs.
tiny boys. The smallest (at left) was the first born, and-weigh- Rara Rucker, at left, and Mrs. Addie Price. (Brainerd photo)
Problem of Names
For Triplet Boys
Unsolved by Mother
The problem of what to name
three tiny boys is giving Mrs.
James W. Rolls a bad time to
day. The mother, of the triplets
born .Wednesdasrat-SacXeaHeart
hospital has not been ablte to
decide definitely, that is on
names for her three new sons.
The youngsters, all being kept
in incubators because, of , their
small size and prematurity, are
doing fine, according to the
proud nurses of the obstetrical
department, whose "pets" they
are. The smallest one gained an
ounce today, they report The
others are holding their own.
Meanwhile, Gerber Products
Co., makers of baby food, an
nounced through their local
representative, Jack Rente, that
the triplets will be given a one
year supply of Gerber's baby
food.
Al Dumas, of Medford Domes
tic laundry, said yesterday aft
ernoon he will give the family
30 days of free wash-dry-folded
laundry service.
Earlier, the father, an em
ployee of City Sanitary Service
Co., was presented with $100 by
his employers, and given a $1
per day raise. Others in the city,
including retiring Mayor Dia
mond L. Flynn, have indicated
an interest in giving the young
parents an assist with their mul
tiple new responsibiltes.
The famly lives at . 512 Sum
mit ave.
Yule Tree Pickup
Planned for 'Dimes'
'The March of Dimes will be
aided by the Medford Loyal
Order of the Moose Sunday,
Jan. 2, when members of the
lodge will pick up old Christmas
trees throughout the city.
They will begin the project
at noon that day. They ask that
persons having Christmas trees
to be disposed of place them in
front of their homes, and that
contributions for the March of
Dimes be included. They suggest
that householders place the con
tributions in envelopes and seal
them, and if receipts are desired,
include their names and ad
dresses. -, . .
That evening at 8 p.m., men
of the lodge will burn the trees
in a huge bonfire in the Camp
White area. The public is invit
ed. Provided that weather condi
tions are good, musical enter
tainment is planned for the eve
ning event. Medford Boy Scouts
of various troops will cooperate
in the project, the lodge men
said.
Those who want more infor
mation should call John Keener,
telephone 3-3661.
DOW-JONES AVERAGES
New York (U.R) Dow-Jones
final stock averages: 30 indus
trials 404.39 up 2.42; 15 utilities
62.47 up 0.62, and 65 stocks
150.22 up 0.77. Sales today were
about 3,840,000 shares compared
with 3,590)00 shares yesterday.
Ma rch of , Dimes Kickoff Hears;
County Campaign Leaders Listed
Plans for the annual March
of Dimes campaign January 3
to 31, to raise funds to combat
infantile paralysis, moved a step
nearer completion today with
announcement of those who will
head the campaign in various
towns in the county.
--The list,-- revealed -by Bobl
Smith, cochairman with Van
Purdy for the sponsoring Med
ford Active club, include .Thomas
Reeder, Medford; . Mrs. Curtis
Gerhardt, Applegate; Carl Sur
berj - Ashland;' William Fry,
Butte Falls; William Cody, Camp
White; Wendell Panter, Central
Point; Don Geren, Eagle Point;
the Rev. G. W. Gear, Gold Hill;
Ray Wilsdn,' Jacksonville; Frank
Lovett, Phoenix; Heston Grieve,
Prospect; Mrs. C. W. Gleim, Tal
ent,' and Mrs. Eva Segessenman,
Shady Cove.
Duffy Heads Publicity
John Duff y, Medford, will con
duct the publicity campaign at
th county level and Russ Jami
son; radio -station- KMED, will
coordinate radio and television
programs. J. D. Montieth, of the
U. S. National bank, Medford,
will again serve as campaign
treasurer.
"The need for funds is great
er than ever," Smith said today.
"More than 60,000 persons who
have had polio in past years are
still looking toward the National
Foundation for Infantile : Par
alysis for care, and.theSalk
vaccine trials, which are costing
many thousands of dollars, are
yet to be completed," Smith said.
Results of a University of
Michigan evaluation test of the
field trials are expected to be
announced in April, according. to
National Foundation spokesmen,
and indications are that the vac
cine will be available to the gen-
Extra Policemen
On Duty Tonight
Extra police patrol cars will
take to the roads in Medford
and J ackson . county tonight in
an effort to prevent automobile
accidents, particularly those .in
volving drunken driving. .
City and ' state officers have
orders to stop all cars that are
operating in an erratic manner.
, All available city police offi
cers will be on hand tonight and
early tomorrow to drive home
motorists who 'have had - too
much to, drink, according to Po
lice. Chief Charles Champlin. ?
. All public offices except those
of law enforcement and fire pro
tection ' agencies will ' be closed
all day Saturday, and most busi
ness places plan to be closed
throughout the day. ' A
The Mail Tribune's business
office will be closed Saturday.
Slight Earthquake
Felt at Bishop, Calif
Bishop,: Calif. jflJ.R) A' slight
earthquake was felt here today,
causing windows and :- dishes to
rattle for about two seconds.. .
. There was no damage, police
said.
eral public in 1956 if the tests
prove satisfactory, which they
are expected to do.
. An . unavoidable delay . in re
ceiving supplies will slow the
local campaign at the start,
Smith said, but coin cards will
be in the mail in a few days and
coin collectors will be distributed
to' places of business throughout
the county as soon as the supply
arrives., .- .
Mendes-France Seeks
ference
Big Four Con
Ratification Praised
Paris (U.R) Premier Pierre
Mendes-France turned today to
the task of pacifying .Moscow
which denounced French ratifi
cation of the German rearma
ment pacts as an aggravation of
the danger of a new war.
Mendes - France, bone - tired
after a 11- day parliamentary
crisis that threatened his gov
ernment and the Western alli
ance, sought a big four meeting
with the Soviet Union as a means
of easing international tension.
Agonixing Decision
The decision to rearm Ger
many., was an agonizing one and
it left France deeply divided. A
meeting with the Soviets would
perliaps ease ' the tensiorf in
France . . ! : . -
The new eran European his
tory began at 6:54 p.'m. Thurs
day afternoon when it was of
ficially announced the assembly
had approved German rearma
ment by a vote of 287 to 260.
The assembly then sat' in dead
silence, appalled at the agoniz
ing decision it had reached after
four years of indecision. , - ?
London (U.R) French ratifi
cation . of the German rearma
ment pacts brought praise today
from the free nations of : the
world, condemnation by those in
the Communist bloc and a warn
ing from Moscow Radio that it
aggravated the danger of a new
war. ' ' : - -V ;'"'
British newspapers in general
warmly welcomed the French
action though the Manchester
Guardian, which favors the West
ern European Union, warned: ;
May Improve Relations
"It will be proved either that
they (the agreements) enable the
West to talk from strength in a
way that will actually improve
relations with Soviet Russia and
the East . . . or very much less
happily - that Moscow will go
ahead with the resentful retorts
it has threatened in the past two
weeks." . " ... . ; '
Comment in Asia . was sharply
divided. Neutralist and Commu
nist nations opposed it. Such pro
Western nations as the Philip
pines, Japan, Nationalist China
and South Korea favored it.
; Some said West German re
armament would spark a renew
ed arms race, make more diffi
cult the explosive issue of Ger
man unity,' and check it not
reverse the recent trend toward
"peaceful coexistence."
Pedestrian injured
When Struck by Auto
Robert Stensvick, 76, of . 520
North Front St., was taken to
Community hospital by Medford
Ambulance . service . yesterday,
after he was hit by a car at about
5:23 p.m. at the intersection of
North Central ave. and Fourth st.
Driver of the car was Dale
Ramon Flowers, 17, of 306 Apple
st., according to police. ':
Stensvick, who suffered head
injuries, was said to be in good
condition at the hospital.
Year-Around Oregon School
Operation Plan Suggested
Corvallis U.R) - A radical
departure from traditional
school terms was proposed here
yesterday by Sate Senator-elect
Mirk Hatfield of Marion county.
Hatfield said he would ask the
state superintendent of. public
instruction to make a study of
the feasibility of operating Ore
gon schools the year : 'round,
with staggered vacations for stu
dents .and teachers. ? "":.- . I
18-Tear-Old Vote Talked" j
In a speech before the Cor
vallis Rotary Club, Hatfield also
raised the .' question of the 18-
year-old vo.te. He ' said he was
canvasing the opinions of social
science teachers around the
state. . ' '
"Maybe . ih .time . is right., to
put the matter to a vote of the
people," he said. , . . ,
Hatfield, dean of students at
Willamette University and po
litical science instructor, said his
year-around school plan would
avoid closing down school phy
sical plants for three months
each year and would give teach
ers a chance to attend graduate
schools during the regular school
year. I:' V
Won't Accelerate Education
He denied that it was designed
to accelerate education, since
all students would attend school
the same amount of time each
year. Class loads during the sum
mer would, probably be lighten
ed under the plan but compen
sating time off would be given,
at other times. . "
Streams Receding;
Landslides Block
Dnarlr Dail linoc
IVUUUJf lUIB hlllVrJ
More Than Five Inches
Of Rain ot Brookings
By UNITED PRESS . :
' Oregon coastal residents from
Astoria to Brookings dug out to
day from the "effects of a torren- '
tial rainstorm that sent streams '
out of their banks and blocked
highways and rail lines with
slides. - "' . .. :
Brookings, on the south coast,
had. more than five inches of
rain in a 24-hour period and the
rainfall was heavy all the way
north to Astoria. But the rain
slacked off 'today and streams
were reported going down.
Highway and rail crews were
busy clearing away rock and
mud.
High Water Expected
Residents of the lower , Co-
quille valley braced for high wa
ter expected this afternoon from
the upper reaches of the stream's
north fork. It was not known
immediately how high the crest
would be, but no serious dam
age or livestock loss was report
ed from upstream points where
the north fork shot over its bank
late yesterday. The north fork
was receding today as was the
Coos river which went over its
banks in some places.
There was water over the
highway between Coquille and .
Myrtle Point, hut traffic was
getting through. '
Trains Delayed
Two Reedsport local , trains
were held up at Mapleton and
another freight train stopped at
Wendson for the night. The
Southern Pacific branch line be
tween Coos Bay and Eugene was
...4. .t.niu T . cliJa. u-.
More than two inches of rain
loosened an embankment over
loosing jtiignway u near Asto
ria yesterday and the resulting
landslide blocked the route near
Tongue Point naval station. A
bridge on Highway 101 south' of
Port Orford was washed out and
highway officials said traffic
would be diverted over new
construction if the damage could
not be repaired promptly. : . .
Highway 36 Blocked .
An earth and rock slide near
Mapleton between Eugene and
Coos Bay blocked both Highway
36 and the Southern Pacific -branch
railway line. Debris was
X. I -3 n 4-1. m.
1UUT leei ueep uvci jjmu ua uie
two routes. .. -
A virtual cloudburst dumped
5.43 inches of rain on Brookings
in the 24-hour period ending at
4:30 p.m. yesterday and ground
water, coupled with gale-driven :
tides, flooded several roads but
all were considered passable. .
A , section of new highway
-the impact of 3.93 inches of rain
and the rocks and mud caught
a passing auto and a grader. The
driver of the car was rescued un
injured, -., ,
Guards were placed on sever
al fill areas along the new coast
highway, to. alert motorists
against sectors weakened by the ,
rains. . . '
In contrast to the heavy rain
on the coast, Portland got .51
of an inch.1. 1
Salem (U.R) The Willamette
river . rose sharply today but
forecasters said no serious flood
threat existed unless heavy rains
returned. .
The stream rose 7.3 feet here
in 24 hours. The Willamette rose
5.5 feet at Albany and the lower
Santiam river went above flood
stage at Jefferson.
The five-day . outlook by the
weather bureau called for recur
ring rain with a total of 2 to 4
inches in coastal areas and
along the west slopes of the Cas
cades with 1 to 2 inches in in
terior valleys.
Eisenhowers Planning
Festive Celebration
Augusta, Ga. U.R) President
and Mrs. Eisenhower plan a fes
tive New Year's Eve with mem
bers' of .the Augusta National
Golf club. '
The chief executive, his wife
and her mother, Mrs. Elivera
Doud, planned to dine in the
Trophy room of the club.
According to members of the
Eisenhower staff, the chief ex
ecutive will stay up until mid
night, then go to bed shortly
afterward. , -.
Selah, Wash. (U.R) Tire
swept through the Samson-Biehn
Fruit Co. ; packing room here
last night, causing damage esti
mated at $50,000.