NEWS
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2019
HERMISTONHERALD.COM • A11
Oregon economy remains strong heading into holiday season
gon has fared well, accord-
ing to Tapogna, but prices
for certain imported prod-
ucts continue to rise and put
the burden on consumers.
“Oregon is sort of in
the middle of the pack of
all states. We’re not as
adversely affected as some
of the state’s in the mid-
dle of the country by the
export aspect of trying to
sell things into China, but
on the other side, in terms
of tariffs for things coming
into the country, it’s putting
upward pressure on prices,”
Tapogna said.
By JAKE THOMAS, SAPHARA
HARRELL AND SAM STITES
OREGON CAPITAL BUREAU
SALEM — It’s a good
time to be a holiday shopper
in Oregon.
Despite fears of a reces-
sion earlier this year, Ore-
gon’s economy remains
stronger than much of the
country. Unlike a decade
ago, when the economy was
reeling from a recession,
Oregonians have jobs and
money. That puts them in a
better position to be gener-
ous this holiday season.
Hovering at 4%, the
state’s unemployment rate is
at historic lows. Oregon had
the second fastest growing
median income in 2018. At
13%, Oregon’s poverty rate
is below the national rate
and the lowest since 2000.
“We’re in unprecedented
times right now,” said John
Topagna, president and
economist at Portland-based
consulting fi rm ECONor-
thwest. “We’re in the 11th
year of an economic expan-
sion, and no other Ameri-
cans have ever lived through
that.”
While Oregon’s eco-
nomic indicators are strong
going into the busiest shop-
ping season of the year, there
are signs that trouble some
economists. There have also
been some blips in the oth-
erwise strong economy that
resulted in job losses.
Still, local shoppers,
retailers and bankers remain
optimistic going into the
holidays.
Umpqua Bank, a regional
bank with branches across
Oregon, reports strong con-
sumer confi dence. Annette
Campista, a senior vice
president at the bank and
regional director of busi-
ness banking, said she’s
seen an increase in business
loan applications, an indica-
tor of economic health.
Campista said the bank
has seen an uptick in con-
sumers saving. She said
many customers have lev-
eraged low interest rates to
refi nance their homes and
consolidate debt.
Jeff Bailey, the presi-
dent and CEO of the Hep-
pner-based Bank of Eastern
Oregon, similarly reported
increases
in
deposits,
“steady to better” activity
on loans and overall faith
in the economy despite the
threat trade wars pose to the
region’s agriculture.
“From a national per-
spective, consumer spend-
ing is still very strong,” said
Bailey. “In small towns in
rural Eastern Oregon, it’s
pretty much the same.”
He said he expects a
good year for merchants.
“All in all, consumers
are fairly optimistic,” said
Bailey. “They’re feeling
good about their own fi nan-
cial situation.”
Pat O’Connor, regional
economist at the state
Employment Department,
said that while Oregon
BTW
Continued from Page A1
Macklemore and producer
Ryan Lewis teamed up on
the single “Thrift Shop”
which reached No. 1 on the
U.S. Billboard Hot 100 in
2013. The duo’s second sin-
gle “Can’t Hold Us” also hit
No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart,
making Macklemore and
Lewis the fi rst duo in the
chart’s history to have their
fi rst two singles both reach
HOLIDAY SALES
ers are presuming too much
about the future economy
and using credit terms that
outlive their cars. These are
signs that a recession could
be on the horizon, he said.
“Don’t borrow a lot of
money and cut back (on
spending),” Whelan said.
“That’s what I would tell
consumers and business
owners right now.”
According to Lance
Rudge, Portland mar-
ket leader for U.S. Bank,
Americans will be wary of
how political shakeups at
the state and national level
in 2020 might affect both
their businesses and their
pocketbooks.
“The economy and job
market are strong, but we
are seeing that small busi-
nesses are hesitant to take
on more debt with the con-
sequences from 2008 still in
mind,” Rudge said.
For now, Rudge said,
“We expect a good holiday
shopping season.”
Private economists don’t
paint quite as rosy a pic-
ture as the state’s analysts.
Both Tapogna and fellow
ECONorthwest economist
Bob Whelan warn there are
a few signals that the U.S.
is headed for a recession.
They’re warning consum-
ers and business owners
alike to tread lightly.
“Retail sales are surpris-
ingly weak. To me it looks
like the economy is running
out of gas,” Whelan said.
“If I were a retailer, hote-
lier, restaurateur; I’d be
cautious.”
When assessing the
economy’s
strength,
Whelan looks at indicators
including consumer spend-
ing, debt, manufacturing
and agricultural produc-
tion, population growth,
employment and housing
development. He believes
consumer spending is par-
ticularly illustrative of the
economic health because
it accounts for about two-
thirds of the economy, the
other third being made
up of mostly government
spending.
According to Whelan,
reports from national retail-
ers provide some insight
into how Oregon retailers
might be faring and what
they can expect in the com-
ing months.
Kohl’s is one company
that provides a good snap-
shot of how much average
consumers are spending
at a point in time, Whelan
said, because the retailer
serves a decidedly mid-
dle-class demographic.
Kohl’s could serve as a
red fl ag for Oregon’s retail-
ers. Two weeks ago, the
stock fell nearly 25 per-
cent in one day after report-
ing poor performance in the
third quarter and project-
ing a bad outlook for the
holidays.
Whelan also warned
that consumer spending
has relied on credit, partic-
ularly in the mortgage and
auto industries. Defaults on
car loans are at a 20-year
high, meaning that consum-
The Trump adminis-
tration’s trade wars pose
a particular threat to Ore-
gon, which relies heavily
on exports. The state’s eco-
nomic forecast identifi ed
slower growth in construc-
tion, hospitality, business
services and durable goods.
It also found that employ-
ers are posting fewer help
wanted ads and that busi-
ness investment is down.
Whelan and Tapogna
indicate tariffs have actu-
ally hurt Oregon worse
than what’s previously been
reported, particularly in the
areas of manufacturing and
agriculture.
Overall,
manufactur-
ing employment in Oregon
is declining, and increased
taxes on products like hazel-
nuts, timber and micropro-
cessors have caused head-
aches for farmers, loggers
and tech giants alike. Out-
side of those industries Ore-
Oregon business owners,
however, are feeling confi -
dent in the state’s economy
heading into the holidays
and the sales season ahead.
“I’m anticipating it will
be exceptional,” said Bob
Neher, owner of Clay in
Motion, a pottery shop in
Milton-Freewater. “Every-
one is upbeat.”
Randy Smith, co-owner
of Smitty’s Ace Hardware
and Smitty’s Outpost in
Hermiston, said he mostly
sells things people need
more than want, a protection
that insulates his business
from seeing as many highs
and lows as other retailers.
Smith is expecting a
strong holiday shopping
season, but he said that cir-
cumstances feel different
for retailers now than it did
three to fi ve years ago. He
said that Black Friday deals
now span a month.
“Truthfully they kind of
ruined Black Friday,” he
said. “It’s not a huge peak.
You don’t have the same
excitement.”
Mark Bigej, owner of
Al’s Garden and Home
in Wilsonville, confi rmed
Smith’s sentiment. He’s
noticed that consumers are
ready to shop for the holi-
days sooner and sooner each
year rather than waiting for
Thanksgiving weekend.
“We’re a little bit anxious
about the fact that Thanks-
giving is a week later and
there’s a compressed shop-
ping time between Thanks-
giving and Christmas,”
Bigej said. “That’s worri-
some when we lose a solid
week. Right now, consumers
seem to be ready for Christ-
mas and are shopping early.
We’re seeing more con-
sumer spending this year
than last year, and we’re
hoping that continues.”
Going into the holidays,
local retailers face chal-
lenges from online retail
giants like Amazon, as well
as what could be a particu-
larly snowy winter for the
state. Retailers seem con-
fi dent that local consum-
ers will continue to spend if
they cater to their needs and
inclement weather doesn’t
ruin shopping days.
In Baker City, Betty’s
Books receives freight three
times a week to try to rival
the convenience many seek
by online shopping and con-
No. 1.
The pair won four
Grammy Awards at the 2014
ceremony, including best
new artist, best rap album,
best rap song and best rap
performance.
Tickets will go on sale in
early February following the
release of the festival’s full
artist lineup.
• • •
Hermiston’s 46th annual
Farm Fair is scheduled for
Dec. 4-6.
The event will feature
three days packed with ven-
dors, food samples and pre-
sentations in English and
Spanish on topics ranging
from hemp to bees. Wednes-
day and Thursday will be
held at the Eastern Ore-
gon Trade and Event Cen-
ter and Friday will be at the
Hermiston Agricultural
Research and Extension
Center.
Most sessions are free,
but there is a $20 fee for
CORE classes, which peo-
ple can register for at www.
hermistonchamber.com.
Look for the full sched-
ule, biographies of the mod-
erators and more information
in the Farm Fair special sec-
tion of next week’s Hermis-
ton Herald.
• • •
Members of the Colum-
bia River Heat recently
stepped up to the plate to help
at the Hermiston Warming
Station. Adelaide Zum-
walt said the group of soft-
ball players hit a home run
in providing a valuable com-
munity service by cleaning
the facility in advance of it
opening.
The Hermiston Warming
Station is at 1075 S. High-
way 395. For information
about making donations or
ways to help, call 541-289-
2150 or search Facebook.
• • •
The Hermiston Herald
offi ces will close at noon on
Wednesday of this week and
all day on Thursday so that
our offi ce staff can celebrate
Thanksgiving. The offi ce
will resume its normal hours
on Friday.
• • •
The Harkenrider Senior
Staff photo by Ben Lonergan
Customers check out at Smitty’s Ace Hardware in Hermiston on Tuesday evening, the hardware
store expects to see a similar number of customers during the holiday shopping season as last
year.
tends to have a tougher time
during recessions, its econ-
omy tends to outpace the
rest of the country during
expansions. But he said that
the high growth that Oregon
and the rest of the country
have experienced in recent
years is starting to slow.
Earlier this year, the
economy showed signs it
was teetering on a reces-
sion. While fears of a reces-
sion didn’t materialize,
the economy is still show-
ing signs of slowing. Busi-
nesses are investing less,
and hiring has slowed.
“Growth has slowed in
2019 and downside risks
remain elevated,” wrote
Josh Lehner, an economist
with the Oregon Offi ce of
Economic Analysis, in a
summary of the state’s most
recent economic forecast.
“However, a recession is
not yet seen in the data.”
O’Connor said that
business investment is
down, possibly because of
decreased demand or uneas-
iness over the trade wars.
The slowdown isn’t surpris-
ing, he said. He attributed
the tight labor market to
employers running out of
people to hire.
“I think that’s the big-
gest change over the past
years,” said O’Connor.
“But if you have to have
some slow growth, it’s good
to have it at record low
unemployment.”
He said that the econ-
omy has been propped up
by consumers with more
money to spend. Earlier this
month, economic research
fi rm Moody’s Analytics
noted that “the consumer is
shouldering all the burden
in preventing the slowing
from turning into something
worse.”
RUNNING OUT OF GAS
MEDICAL DIRECTORY
To advertise in the Medical Directory, please call:
Jeanne at 541-564-4531 or Audra at 541-564-4538
RISING PRICES
Activity Center will not be
holding meals on Thursday
or Friday due to the Thanks-
giving holiday.
Monday’s menu is tur-
key sandwich, pasta salad
and dessert. Tuesday is meat
loaf, veggies, Jell-O salad
and dessert. Next Wednes-
day is chicken Alfredo,
salad, fruit and cookies.
— You can submit items
for our weekly By The Way
column by emailing your
tips to editor@hermiston-
herald.com.
HERMISTON FAMILY MEDICINE &
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tinues to have shoppers
year-round.
“We have one day (ship-
ping) sometimes,” said Car-
olyn Kulog, owner of Bet-
ty’s Books, which has been
open 40 years.
In La Grande, Blue
Mountain Outfi tters owner
Jim Whitbeck has shifted
marketing away from tour-
ism to a larger focus on the
local scene at his outdoor
equipment store. Whitbeck
said people are surprised a
business like his, which sells
medium- to high-end out-
door products, can compete
with retail giants.
“The one thing I have to
say is I never knew a world
without Amazon,” Whitbeck
said.
Marie LeRud, owner of
Lake Oswego’s Lucky Me
Boutique, has turned to cre-
ativity to bring more cus-
tomers into her brick-and-
mortar store in the age of
online shopping. She offers
free gift wrapping during the
holiday season, something
that sets her apart in the
minds of customers decid-
ing where to buy.
“I’m a big-themed kind
of person. You don’t get that
online. You have to be cre-
ative in the way of getting
your customers wanting to
come into the store,” LeRud
said.
Some business owners
aren’t looking to the econ-
omy as a barometer for
sales, they’re looking to the
skies as forecasts predict
snowy weather for the state.
The confi dence in Oregon’s
economy seems to diminish
at the prospect of snow.
Jared Mees, co-owner
of indie record label Ten-
der Loving Empire, said the
unique niche of his business
means it doesn’t have to
compete with online retail-
ers. The label operates a
handful of stores in the Port-
land area offering records,
apparel, housewares and
other unique items.
Although Mees doesn’t
worry about losing sales to
the internet, he’s been anx-
iously tracking weather
forecasts that predict at
least one or two snowstorms
during the next couple of
weeks. For Tender Loving
Empire, inclement weather
can turn a $5,000 day for
sales into one with just $300
or $500 in the register at
closing time.
“If there’s a ‘snowpoc-
alypse,’ it can deter (shop-
pers), and you don’t get
those days back. It’s like
every retailer … this is your
time to profi t. Once Dec. 24
hits, it’s over,” Mees said.
Contributors to this
report:
Joseph
Galli-
van, Portland Tribune;
Jade McDowell, East Ore-
gonian; Phil Wright, La
Grande Observer; Jayson
Jacoby, Baker City Herald;
Stephanie Basalyga, Busi-
ness Tribune; Clara How-
ell, Lake Oswego Review;
Corey Buchanan, Wilson-
ville Spokesman.
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(across from Good Shepherd Medical Center)
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Office Hours: Mon-Fri 8am-4pm
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Robert D. Rolen , O.D., LLC
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115 W. Hermiston Ave. Suite 130
541-567-1837