HEPPNER GAZETTE-TIMES. Thundor. Drnmbw 29. 1966
Roger Babson Forecasts Decline In National Economy For 1967
(Continued from page 1)
fool that we should particular
ly watch General de Gaulle,
who is playing closer and clos
er to Moscow from month to
month. ...
6. Heavily armed with Soviet
weapons, the Arabs of the Mid
dle East squared off apainst
Israel present a grave threat
to world peace. Nevertheless, I
do not believe ' that Russia or
the United States can afford- a
direct confrontation at this time;
hence my forecast that the smol
dering conflagration there "will
not erupt into World War III.
7. While all reasonable peo
ple are hoping for a genuine
peace in Vietnam. I predict that
the issue will not be. resolved
in l'.Xw. Though the tide of bat
tle is swinging in our favor,
we may be forced to increase
our commitment in order to re
tain this upper hand.
8. I predict, therefore, that
militarv spending will be raised
in 17. This can help soften
the impact of any easing in
the private sector of the econ
omy. 9. Turning now to domestic
conditions. I foresee a definite
deceleration in business activ
ity in 1967. The fantastic boom
is in need of a rest. Instead of
the strong uptrend of recent
years, I look for a high level
of industrial production early
in the year; but unless some
new stimulus is introduced, 1
fear that a cresting-over' pal
tern is likely to develop as 1967
progresses.
10. I forecast a continuation
Mustangs Squeak
By Pilot Rock
Tuesday, 57-55 .
It was just like the old days
t etween Pilot Rock and Hepp
ner last Tuesday night when the
nip and tuck rivalry provided a
cliff hanger on the basketball
court. In the end. the Mustangs
won. 57-53, but they had to call
on all their canny casaba skii!
to do it.
Giving away height at each
position against the lofty Rock
ets and playing without their
only tall fir, Mac Hoskins. the
Mustangs found themselves
trailing in early stages of the
game. They managed to take
an edge in the second half, but
the Rockets pulled even at 44
44 by the end of the third per
iod. Dominating the boards and
using their height to advantage
on layin shots, the Rockets, who
ranged to 6-5, sank more field
goals than Heppner. 22 to 20.
but free throws saved the -. ball
game for the Mustangs.
Towards the end of the game.
Steve: Wagenblast his three of
four gift tries to give the Mus
tangs an edge again after the
home five had slipped a point
behind. Dave Hall swished six
of seven free throws in. the sec
ond half, and Jim Doherty, who
played a fine game again after
a slump in the past.Vtwo or
three, hit three for three at cru
cial times.
Gene Harrison was the big
gun for Pilot Rock with 26
points. The 6-4 forward made
10 field goals and six free
throws before fouling out late
in the contest. Doherty's 16
points were second high in the
game, but it didn't tell the
whole story of his worth. He play
ed an outstanding floor game.
Hall got 14 points and Bill Mc
Leod made 10. The Mustangs
got 17 of 24 free throws while
Pilot Rock hit on nine of 13
chances.
James O'Brien, 6-5 center, and
Duke Chapman, 6-0 forward,
each had 10 for the Rockets.
Wily coach Mas Watanabe,
whose ball club has come a
long way since Heppner beat
them 66-44 at Pilot Rock in the
first game of the season, used
very few substitutes in the con
test, relying on his big five.
He just about turned the -trick.
Hoskins was out of the game
on account of illness, .
PILOT ROCK (55) Chapman,
10, Harrison 26, O'Brien 10,
Bond 6, Wright 3.
HEPPNER (57) Doherty 16,
Hall 14, Jacobs 5, McLeod 10,
Pettyjohn 7, Stillman 2, Wag
enblast 3.
Two from Morrow
On BMC Honor Roll
Two southern Morrow county
students at Blue Mountain Col
lege are listed on honor rolls
of the college for the fall, term,
according to announcement
from the college.
Eldon Padberg of Lexington
received a 3.50 in his mechan
ical course to make the top
honor roll, and Dale Van Blok
land of Heppner received a 3.12
in his civil course to make the
Dean's honor roll.
HOSPITAL NEWS
Patients admitted to Pioneer
Memorial hospital during the
past week, and still receiving
medical care, are the following:
Lonnie McCabe, lone; R. G. Wat
kins, Heppner; Jerry Brace, Hep
pner, and Richard Borman, Hep
pner. Those admitted for medical
care, and later dismissed were
the following: Carolyn Davis,
Lonerock; Marvin Albee, Condon
and Ann Martin, Heppner.
of the tug of war between in
flation and deflation in 1967.
Tight credit, and increased pro
ductive capacity resulting from
the flood of business capital ex
penditures in recent years, are
deflationary. However, I can
see no substantial relief from
the inflation in labor and other
operating costs. In short, we
can have "cost -push" inflation
co-evisttng with deflation.
11. A key factor in the busi
ness and financial outlook for
1967 Is taxes. With defense out
lays climbing, I look for a rise
in corporate and personal taxes
in 1967. Moreover, I forecast
that various levies at the state
and local levels will continue
to increase.
12. The tightening tax squeeze
on all fronts will worsen as the
year advances. And there will
be rising complaints from both
business men and employees
that social security taxes are
becoming unbearable.
13. Results of the recent elec
tions indicate that the head
long run of the Great Society
Program must take a breather
along with the economy. Gains
scored by the Republicans have
altered the balance of power
sufficiently to force a more so
ber look in public spending.
11. One of the primary reas
ons for expecting a decelera
tion in the economy is the like
lihood that business capital ex
penditures may ease. Tight
credit, suspension of accelerat
ed depreciation guidelines, and
suspension of the tax credit on
business capital outlays will be
tough obstacles to surmount.
15. Except in defense indus
tries. I look for an abrupt
switch during 1967 from a bus
iness policy of inventory accum
ulation to one of inventory
liquidation. 16. I forecast that scarcity of
credit will continue to be a
problem with which business
must contend in the early. part
of 1967. The money managers
should keep enough credit avail
able for legitimate business
needs, bltt I expect no early
radical easing of credit.
17. However, ; I . do foresee
enough of an easing in credit
to permit more orderly monetary
conditions. If the economic sit
uation falters badly, money
rates will of course, move
downward sharply. -
IS. I predict that commercial
and industrial building will
trend lower' in 1967, reflecting
the tapering off in capital out
lays. 19. Mortgage monev should
remain , scarce in 1967. Hence,
residential building should see
another disappointing year.
20. 1967 opens with the build
ing of single homes in a state
of crisis. Starts are down' over
40 from year-earlier levels. As
a result, I forecast that the Ad
ministration will leave no stone
unturned to stimulate construc
tion of houses as soon as pos
sible. At best, however, it may
be milyeur or after before this
important part of our economy
can contribute much strength
to over-all business.
21. Although new housing
starts may remain in the dol
drums for most of 1967. I con
fidently forecast that the year
win , see the beginning ol a
great boom in the construction
of new, modern nursing homes.
. Despite President John
son's request for cutbacks. Dub-
lie construction should eniov a
fairly good year; the emphasis
will be on bridges, dams, and
water and sewer systems.
23. The expected declines in
residential building and in com
mercial and industrial building
Happy New Year!
"Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of
the least of these my brethren ye have done it
unto me."
We ushered the old year out with T.B. Seals
that help support the most atrocious cruelties
in thousands of labs all over the U. S. The lat
est congressional report says over one quarter
of a million biomedical people busy without 'one
control law' in any lab to prevent tortures from
being repeated over and over. This is more than
our share of tax to support such deeds.
Now we are ready to start another vicious
circle all over again by supporting the "March
of Dimes" Drive. As Dr. Virginice Apgar, Na
tional Chairman of March of Dimes stated "We
need 'people' studies, we wouldn't dare drink
coffee or take - an aspirin ; if we believed in
Animal Studies."
The truth is, animal experiments have mis
led science, and the thalidomide tragedy is but
one example. The whole question of Vivisection
is immoral, wicked, unscientific, useless and
cruel.
Read "What Christmas 1966 Means" by the
Rev. Donald R. Pederson in last week's Gazette-Times
for the best prescription for health,
happiness, peace and a more bountiful life for
1967.
Happy New Year
Lois Winchester
notwithstanding, I forecast that
waterfront property will remain
a good Inflation hedge.
24. Labor stands at the cross
roads as the new year opens.
Things never looked better for
nailing down record wage and
fringe gains: however, neither
the public nor the Congress Is
in any mood to tolerate long,
costly, and inconvenient shut
downs. 1 freely predict that
there is more likelihood In 1967
of restrictive labor legislation
than at any time since Taft
Hartley was put on the books.
I'nion chiefs are aware of this,
and they may act with more re
straint than most people now
expect.
-5. 1967 promises to be a year
in which many managements
will be fighting a "rearguard"
action to control climbing labor
costs The defense building will
maintain hiring pressure in
some industries; but even more
activities will to wielding the
paring knife. I forecast that the
net result will be a rise in un
employment next year.
26. I do not look for price and
wage controls in 1967, unless
our defense expenditures rise
far above what is now contem
plated. 27. An encouraging aspect o(
the 1967 outlook is the afflu
ence of consumers. I forecast a
further upward trend in person
al incomes, due to higher wage
rates. However, if taxes are rais
ed, take-home pay may not
show a rise commensurate with
the gain in gross pav.
28. Retail trade held up well
in 1966. but there was a note
of lethargy throughout the year.
The pattern is not expected to
show much change in 1967 . . .
with gains in dollar volume
largely reflecting price infla
tion. Though consumers will
have more money to spend,
tight credit, high borrowing
costs, and higher price levels
could cause some tightening of
purse strings.
29. Spending for food, appar
el, and general merchandise
should be greater in 1967. Also,
consumers will devote a good
ly portion of their spending
budget for leisure activities, va
cation, and travel.
30. Durable goods may not
fare so well. Demand for home
appliances, color TV sets, and
furniture may be hampered by
tight credit and high borrowing
costs, plus the lethargy in new
home building.
31. I forecast a decline in new
auto sales. However, with the
increase 1n the population of
driving age. and with the record
rate of personal income, new
car sales could hold within 10
of 1966's.
32. Soaring living costs will
hit the headlines more often in
1967. Ire will be directed most
strongly at runaway service ex
penses especially medical
and at advancing red meat
prices.
33. Despite new highs in the
cost of living, I predict there
will be many signs of deflation
In the midst of inflation. Chief
among these will be sliding
profits, rising bankruptcies and
foreclosures.
34. Industrial commodity pric
es should be firm to slightly
higher. Selective price markups
will be necessary to offset wage
hikes.
35. Profits began to wobble in
the final half of 1966. I am con
vinced that hesitancy will give
way to decline during the year
ahead. Big squeeze on margins
will come from soaring costs,
especially labor.
36. But profits results will al
so vary widely from one com
pany and one industry to anoth
er, as sales volumes sag, hold,
or advance. For example, I am
willing to "stick my neck out"
and say that oil companies will
enjoy a sales rise, but that the
auto makers will be struggling
with a volume slump nil year.
37. The combination of less
vigorous business, pinched prof
it margins, and stringent credit
conditions points to an increase
In business failures, shaking
out the financially weak and
inefficient.
38. Collect tons may bo more
difficult in 1967 on business ac
counts, consumer Installment
and charge accounts, and mort
gage debt. 1 forecast a further
rise in nonfarm real estate fore
closures. 39. Barring crop failures, I
forecast another good farm pro
duction vear. Farm prices
should ruV firmly to slightly
higher in 1967, but higher costs
may result In a slight drop In
net realized farm income,
40. Nevertheless, farm equip
ment manufacturers should en
ov good business. Sales of fer
tilizers and insecticides should
post gains.
41. lWT's stock market prom
ises to be one of vicious selec
tivity. I am expecting the old
aristocracy of the blue chips
rased on past performance to
be replaced by a new aristocra
cy of super-able management
based upon hopes of good fu
ture performance.
42. I forecast, however, that
1967 will still hold many dan
gers for the speculator. 1 urge
readers not to borrow money to
buy stocks, and I urge invest
ors to buy for growth and bas
ic investment values.
43. The safest kind of long
term bonds are available now
at prices affording very close to
the highest income returns of
the century. It Is a good bet
that there will not be so many
top-grade issues on the bargain
counter at the end of 1967.
Should the 90th Congress boost
Income taxes, tax-exempt bonds
will put on the best perform
ance. 44. World opinion on the fu
ture of gold has blown hot and
cold manv times in recent years.
Though iately in the shade, I
predict that gold will again be
in the spotlight before 1967 Is
out.
45. I forecast that the dollar
will not be devalued in 1967,
but the pound will continue
shaky.
4b. certainly. Congress win
If you haven't been remembering to save lately,
this is a good time to firm up your New Year's reso
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become more and more critical
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er supervision,
47. As 1967 wears along, the
high hopes for more construct
ive conservative action by the
90th Congress will give way to
Increased doubts as a legislat
ive stalemate develops. Repub
licans will have enough strength
to stop the most liberal Admin
istration bills, but not enough
to launch a program of their
own.
IS. There will be a lot of talk
In l:ti7 about the economy's
'still growing". But I warn
readers to examine carefully
the advance In Gross National
Product which I am forecasting
here. Biggest pan of the In
crease will Come from higher
prices and wages.
19. I foresee that a breathing
spell In the economy can prove
Tum-A-Lum
i :?
)
4 :
A message for absent-minded savers
DEPOSITS MADE ON
OR BEFORE
JANUARY 10
EARN INTEREST
FROM JANUARY 1
helpful. The prolonged prosper
ity hnd bred waste, laxness, and
Inefficiency, These can be cor
reeled only lv return to fun
damentals. Just n the human
body requires adequate rest In
order to enlov proper health, so
too the economy, ami the stock
market its well, must undergo
periodic resting phases,
50. Ah the economy cools off
In 1967, readers should bownre
of rcnstturnm-e that our prob
lems are only temporary, and
will soon be followed by a dec
ade of boom conditions. The
promised land mav be only
across the river, but it Is al
ways wise to test the depth of
the water before wading In.
That Is behind mv font-list that
1967 will be a good year for
businessmen and Investors to
have strong confidence for the
future, but to proceed with cau
tion and restraint until the uil
cert. Unties Just ahead have been
resolved.
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FIRST
NATIONAL
BANK OF OREGON
Ig-Sl
Mmber Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Mr. and Mrs. Ralph Scott
.pent Chrlstmnn t family
gathering at the home of her
daughter and family, the Or
did NlKhlts, In Waaco. They re
turned to Heppner Monday,
Tell
In the
the advert Uor you aw It
Uaxette-Tlmea.
NEW
YEARS
EVE
D
A
N
C
E
WITH THE
HENCHMEN
SATURDAY,
DKCKMHKK 31
Fair Pavilion
9:30 p.m. -12:30 a.m.
Sl.lS PER PERSON