Friday, Decmber 31, 1943
BEAVERTON ENTERPRISE, Beaverton, Oregon
Page 2
H. H. J K m t U Ä
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^ Í ms ÍM
O rec
P U B L I S H.E R
ahead In spite of declines in earnings
and lower dividend payments
It is
possible the “war babies’’ may be-
I come oversold and the peace stocks
] overbought, but the total industrial
averages will go higher sometime
during 1944 than they are at present.
In
case a Republican President
I should be elected in November a big
j bull market could quickly develop.
What Stocks to Buy
Some industrial groups appear
more attractive than others.
Build-
! ing stocks should benefit from the
j expected boom after the war. Johns-
| Manville, Lone Star Cement and
Eagle-Picher Lead hold prospects for
good postwar earnings and liberal
dividends.
Flexibility of merchan
dising companies makes their stocks
Continued from Page 1
favorites.
I have recommended Am
erican Stores, McCrory Stores, Kro
pick of the lot:
Detroit, Michigan, ger,, Jewel Tea, General Shoe, United
. i it son, Michigan; Knoxville, Tenn.; Stores 6% Preferred and Preferred
The railroad and farm equip
r boenix, Arizona; Portland, Oregon; ’’A” .
■in Diego, Calif.; Savannah, Ga.; ment groups ought to show better-
Favorites in
oringfield, Mass.; Topeka, 'Kansas than-average progress.
r ml Wichita, Kansas.
It will make clude American Brake Shoe, General
Baldwin
difference in 1944 business whether American Transportation,
G< i many cracks in the early or lat- and Harvester; although prospects
. r part of the year. When this hap convince me that selected steel and
pens Washington will begin at once iron issues hold appeal. U. S. Pipe Line
t i c incel war orders, epeclally on the & Foundry should benefit from build
Republic Steel $5 Pfd. "A" of
Atlantic Seaboard.
The army will ing.
National Steel
accept no more recruits, may begin fers liberal income.
< derly demobilization.
Navy men and Allegheny-Ludlum are sound is
Electrical equipment should
.may he In for two or three years sues.
more.
Army demobilization mpy) experience heavy postwar demand.
Mart around election time In 1944. General Electric is the 'outstanding
leader.
This should help retail trade.
Industries Differ
Bonds, Interest Rules and
Expansion of airplane factories has Preferred Stocks
been practically completed
Auto I The government forbids a corpora-
motive industry during 1944
will |tlon to manipulate the price of its se
giadually reconvert to normal. New curities but the government is using
i :ir stockpile low.
Look for relief j artificial means to force down inter
only on trucks.
Building about the est payments needed by widows, or-
same level for
total new building I phans and others dependent upon sa
as in 1943.
Relaxing restrictions on vings or life insurance.
This is un-
private construction will come In | fair.
Government Bonds dominate
near future. Gains in 1944 will show the high-grade field.
Corporates are
in these category when compared ! being called In increasing amounts.
with 1943.
Am optimistic on post Institutional Investors and trustees
war home building.
have to
bid very
high on the
The shoe and clothing industries i few remaining corporates or buy
are beset by price ceilings and In | Governments.
In view of the rela-
creased costs.
These will continue | tlvely greater risk in corporates, I
through 1944.
Woolen industry will favor confining high grade bond pur
remain very active.
Rayon will chases to the E, F and G War series,
continue at capacity output.
Cotton preferably E ’s. Otherwise, hold cash.
textiles will be fairly active,—merely Municipals are too liigh.
eijual last year’s level.
With Ger
I expect no near-term shift In in
many out, consumer demand for terest rates.
They remain low as
these goods should quickly replace long as government financing must
war oixlers.
Dairy products will be , be carried on in large volume, or as
scarce because of feed problems. I long as restrictions are placed upon
Slaughter houses should do a big vol | the expansion of business to meet
ume.
Cereul products will do well. civilian
demands and the money
Cunned goods will feel effects of hoard continues to grow.
When the
sharply higher costs and lower out ! readjustment
comes the investor
put.
Bituminous coal depends upon should not be tied up in long-term,
labor union policy, but I expect out \ low-coupon bonds. Current yields on
put to be at least 10% better in 1944 better-grade issues have been forced
than in 1943.
down too low.
Investors looking for
Air transport will gain In equip I liberal Income are, therefore, buying
ment and efficiency.
Manpower is oummulative preferreds. Such issues
far from solved.
The trend of the are also in favor with investors skep-
industry is up for both air passen ! tical over the general trend of coin-
gers and freight. Railroads will con i mon stocks; but the field is very sc-
tinue to suffer from equipment short | lective.
My usual advice is to buy
ages. War peak of traffic is passed. j only first mortgage bonds or else
Railroad needs are so acute that common stocks of companies with no
higher priorities for equipment will he i cumulative preferreds.
forced.
After the war. railroads will Taxes
have a terrible slump.
With much
There may be small Increase in
less to haul, they will face, as never 11444 tuxes.
This increase will hurt
before^ competition from coastwise only a few industries through in-
transportation, new pipe lines, air j creased excise taxes.
Income taxes,
planes and trucks.
Eastern roads inheritance taxes, gift taxes, and
will slump os soon as Germany col probably corporation taxes will re-
lapses.
i main about where they are lowered.
Electronics and television should I Furthermore, 1944 may be the last
boom.
Heavy electrical equipment year of tax misery.
Tuxes should
orders may decline slightly In 1944. begin to decline in 1943.
Investors
Killowatt output may be 10% better should especially keep in mind that
In 1943.
Lumber volume will con when excess profit taxes are elimin
tinue to be reduced. Backlog of ma ated muny corporations can make
chine tool orders is declining sharply more money and pay more dividends
Subcontracts may help.
Nonfer- with much smaller gross earnings.
rous metals are held down by acute 1‘ostwur Jobs
manpower shortage
Paper and pulp
Men and women who left jotm to
will be affected by the cut in news I enter the armed fore«»« should have
print.
Paperboard output In 1944 | no trouble getting Jobs when thsy re-
ukl equal 1943.
Refinery petro- 'tum
Those who entered the "arm-
b utn output In 1944 will run above ichair” forces at Washington or else
1943
Higher prices for crude prob where may have real trouble with get
able
All-time peaks In steel output ting postwar Jobs
Mon who were un-
u- heduled for 19*4.
Shipbuilding1 | employed when they entered the ar
may not show further gains, but med forces will get postwar jobs based
launchings will.
on their war records and behavior.
Outlook for Ishor
Character and habits will be an impor
Crux is whether sufficient skilled tant consideration.
Men and wo
and unskilled workers can be chan men who left employers in the lurch
neled Into critical war Industries. lo get more money or thrills may be
P Is estimated that 2,000,000 workers J left "high and dry” when the war is
mutt be added to essential plants In : over.
There will not be a good job
the next few months.
However, for everyone after Germany cracks
over 2.000,000 men and women reach | In fact, there will begin to be unem
age 18 every twelve months
There- ployment when Koumama, Bulgaria
iore, the labor situation may begin jor Hungary give up. which I expect
to ease
There will be many dil j fairly soon.
utes but most upsets will be of short 1‘olitics and Inflation
duration and small scope
I «hot
Unless Germany collapses before
bndeis must threaten strikes for {August. Roosevelt will be re-notnin-
publicity and to hold Jobs. The cost- ated and probably re-elected It looks
of-llvlng situation will dictate the now as If Wllkls would he nominated
rise and fall of atrlkea.
If rolling if the Republican leaders believe
back prices la successful, pressure for i Roosevelt has the election in the bag
higher wage* will be considerably re iThis would bs a good way of getting
duced.
After Germany cracks, | rid of Wtllktte forever. Another pos
there will be no scarcity of labor sibility Is that Wtllkle may accept
I jvhor's honeymoon la approaching second place on the Democratic tick-
Its end
There will be no railroad jet
The Republicans will put their
strike In 194*.
effort* upon Congress
In Novem
Stock Market
ber. 1944. they should secure a good
The 1944 long-term trend of atock majority of the House and six more
prices U definitely upward.
A grow •Senators
When . I look further
ing hoard of money seeks investment. ahead 1948 seems now like a good
Few new stocks are available.
On I Republican year with Gov Dewey
the bullish side the market strenirth- the victor. In case Wlllkie is not al
ened In the face of the largest War ready President. During the 1948-
Bond Drive In our history.
62 term will come the next depression
Most listed companies are stro ng followed by a return of the Demo-
er than ever.
Debts have been re lersts In 19(12
Then there will be
duced, cash reserves Increased Com more Socialistic experiments and the
panies doing well In war work mav real
Inflationary period
In
the
get new buildings and machinery for mean time, we will have slowly creep
a song.
War stocks havs gradually ing Inflation until 1948: but nothing
given ground in spits of record earn radical
After Roossvelt Is reelect
ing* and growth In not current as ed with t Vlcs-Presldsnt satisfactory
set*
Many paacs stocks havs forged to him. I should not ba surprised to
i
Babson Says .
see him resign to accept the head of
the new World Organization what
ever this may be.
This could take
place as soon as Japan is whipped,—
possibly in 1943.
How Long Will War II J-ast?
Intelligent forecasts of 1944 busi
ness should be based upon some as
sumption as to the length of the war.
If Germany Is to crack within a short
time, 1944 may be a very different
year than if Germany shoulfe hold out
until after our Presidential Elections
In November, 1944.
Germany may
collapse early in the year, but con
sider the following: —
(1) Churchill is very close to
Roosevelt..
He desperately wants
him to be re-elected.
Knowing
that only a continuation of the Euro
pean conflict through October, 1944(
will assure this, he is not hurrying
his Second Front.
(2) As the Republicans have not
yet insisted upon “unconditional
surrender”, the German and Jap
anese people think their chances
might be better with a Republican
President, which is a temptation
for them to hold out.
(3) Stalin is definitely waiting un
till after November 6, 1944, before
making certain decisions, and this
will delay Germany’s collapse.
1 4 ) Although the Washington New
Deal group might do things to
prolong the war merely to Insure
themselves another four years of
power.yet they surely would not be
adverse to others doing so.
(5) Generally good war
news
should feature 1944.
The* battle-
hardened Russians should continue
to drive the German hordes back.
As we enter 1944 the war has roun
ded second base and is on the way
home.
As, however, I stated in
my 1942 and 1943 Annual Fore
casts, we should not expect an end
ing of the War until gas, chemi
cals or bacteria bombs are used.
Ail of the above may be upset by
the death or serious illness of Roose
velt, Churchill, Stalin, Chiang or per
haps even Hitler in 1944.
Needed:
More Research
And Religion
Business men are faced with three
vitally important questions: (I) Is it
time now to give up seeking war
contracts and prepare plants for
civilian goods output?
(2) Should
subcontracting be reduced by approx
imately 50%, so as to be ready for
civilian goods production?
(3) Is
all-out war production to utmost ca
pacity the best course to pursue? My
advice is:
Continue to take all war
subcontracting you can get provided
it will not tie your up plant beyond
Election Day next year.
Stop fur
ther expansion plans now.
Work
research and postwar planning de
partments overtime.
Give orders
now for reconversion equipment.
Finally, 1944 will see a continuation
of the conflict between those two
philosophical theories which are split
ting civilization today.
These may
be expressed by the eternal question
of whether man (I) is a spiritual be
ing to be guided by the Ten Com
mandments; or (2) is a evolutionary
animal permitted to follow the rules
of the jungle even when possessing a
college diploma and dressed in a tux
edo. If our first assumption, the one
for which our churches stand, is
adopted as a goal, the coming year
can be the beginning of a glorious
future.
If the second, which too
many educators are teaching, is al
lowed to grow, then World War II may
have been in vain.
In the end. spir
itual forces must overcome the ma
ter forces or civilization is sunk. The
hope of a better postwar world lies
with greater research and more re
ligion.
News items must be in our office
by Wednesday midnight. Due to la
bor shortage, we cannot accept copy
Thursday unless for next weeks issue.
VVoul 1 appreciate your cooperation.
BE WISE AND MODERNIZE
ALMA'S DRESS SHOP
PATRONIZE
PJAMBER
CH 1232 — 743 Maplecrest Court
Q Finest Garments from the best
stocks in this country.
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Complete Funeral Service In New
Cathedral Chapel at No Extra cost
Riverview is a co-operative asso
ciation with assets of over 3800,000
• Unequalled personal service.
Time for you to select exactly
what you want.
No rush, a
friendly helpful way of serving
you.
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Attention
Chevrolet Owners
For Prompt and Efficient
0 Ample stocks and variety of
stylish and quality garments
for the careful buyer.
CHEVROLET
Service and Parts
• Ten minutes from downtown
and more for your mgney.
AND
Grades 1 or 3—Most Sizes
A.B.Smith Chevrolet Co.
«tarT
iVlRYTHING
Ndnufdctunn I IN.trlbutor*
Y á
D A I R Y MANI
F orti ano . C m .-S alt L ast ( it y
W . Burnside at 13th Ave.
Portland
A T . 5161
tfo
ìììonrn kOrifeU
0 Twenty years at this same lo
cation. Twenty Third Ave., or
Willamette Heights car to
Northrup and N. W. Twenty
Third Ave.
TIRES and TUBES
“A GREAT PLACE
0e Laval
SEPARATORS — MILKERS
COMPLETE EQUIPMENT ANI>
SUPPLIES FOR THE DAIRY
INDUSTRY
• Out of the high rent district.
Quality at moderate prices.
BUY”
PORTLAND, OREGON
SAVE YOUR TIRES—
BUY DEFENSE BONDS
Ride a Bus— Right to the dooi
oi the
WANTED
Winter Garden
John C.Clark
TURKEYS
ALSO
On Taylor St., bt. 4th & 5th
Carpenter and Builder
Live Poultry and Eggs
Receiving & Dressing Plants:
Portland, McMinnville, Salem,
Albany, Eugene,
Roseburg,
Redmond, Oregon.
PORTLAND
Tasty Foods
Dinners— Lunches
Banquets
Tigard Z561
Portland’s Finest In
Quality and Service
Claude Brereton
Main Office und Plant
AT THE
Northwest Poultry &
Dairy Products Co.
W IN TER GARDEN
SCOFFINS & WALLACE
Fancy Pigeons
30 Varieties
Call evenings. Sat. P. M. or Sun.
Tigard, Across from Joy Theatre
PHONE 2381
S. E. Oak Street, Portland, Ore.
Phone EAst 5141
W . E. PEGG
MORTICIAN
Beaverton, Oregon
Estab. 1910—Serving 33 years
PHONE BEAVERTON 3411
W ANTED
Cash Buyers
BRICKYARD
FACTORY WORKERS
For 1 to 10 Acres Improved
List With Us For Quick Sales
c. V. W A L L A C E
— Signs & Cards—
Essential Industry
Victory Real Estate Co.
EXPERIEN CE
NOT NECESSARY
4616 NE Sandy Blvd.
TR. 3769
Res. GA. 0648
PORTLAND,
III. Bx 1, Tigard, Oregon.
Opposite the Joy Theatre
PHONE TIGARD 2381
Steady Work with Overtime
OREGON
Fruit, Nut, Flowering and Shade
Trees, Roses, Berry Plants
Shrubs, etc.
Send for new fall and spring cata
log. Fall planting starts in Novem
ber. Tulip bulbs are planted now,
folder on request.
A PPL Y AT
SYLVAN PLANT
COLUMBIA BRICK WORKS
TIRE CAPPING
Tualatin V alley Nurseries
1320 S. E. Water Ave., Portland
Highest quality materials, modern
equipment, skillful workmanship.
PROMPT SERVICE
Sherwood,
Wagons, Scooters, Tricycles, Used B icycles
I.arge Truck Tire* Done ut Once
Large Stock New Seiberling Tires
Immediate Delivery
Bicycle Accessories &
Repairing of All Types
W heel Goods Retiring
KISSLER’S
923 S W 4th Av., Portland
. .1 fi 7
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W m
—V i l - r j£ *■ 4 Jj~r
C H E V R O L E T CO.
I f ,:
West Burnside at 13th
“ A Great Place to Buy”
KC v £ £ 3 8 ?
S car washers !
MECHANICS
OREGON
MOTOR STAGES
I
PORTLAND
A T . 5438
m
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A. B. SMITH
BE. 3021
Jti,
Oregon
T H E OLD JUDGE S A Y S . . .
5 Push Button Controls
6 tubes
3 Position Tone Control
3 Gang Permeability
Tuning
elliptical Speaker
Sensitivity Control
Automatic Drift
Compensation
Dial Dimmer
New Full Vision Dial
Automatic Volume
Control
1 506 S W Mill
AT. 6461
135 NW Park
1129 N. W. 23rd Ave.
Limited Supply
Just Received
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CREMATORIUM
MAUSOLEUM
CEMETERY
Millinery
RAY GRIMSHAW
Table Cabinet
Models
WEST END
KELLWOOD BRIDGE
Suits— Coats— Dresses
H. B. W IS E
525 S. K. Union Ave.
EA. 1171
Portland, Ore.
RADIOS
Riverview Cemetery
j
I
-
"T h e men overseas don’ t miner* pnv words
about the way they want to lmd t ,:s
country when they come marc.un , >:ne...
do they. Judge?”
“ They certainly don’ t. Herb...and t' v
shouldn't. They're doing a master.ul ji.j
fighting over there to protect our rights and
they have good license to expect us to pro
tect theirs hack here at home. One thing
they’re mighty clear on is their stand on
prohibition.”
" I saw in the paper just the ether day
the results of a poll taken among A net lean
s Tvice V .•[ in Fneland by the Ft it i<sh Tnsti-
tuteofl
cl
;
lundreds
i men : • nt blank h w they v u.d vole on
proiiib.o.un. 8Jr0 cj t'::i.; c.nL.u, in unmis-
t : i. i e terms, that they would vote
it. There’s no doubt about it. Herb
...to e men overseas don't . want
action
____a any
n y ___
___
taken on that subject while they’re away.”
t
ri- it. Judge, because
*, k'1'1"'how- I fe.t w .. ;i I carrr home aiter
t .e ... t w ar—onlv t > learn that w e had
tn:rz . . Fr. r.tbition.”