A4 • Friday, December 14, 2018 | Cannon Beach Gazette | CannonBeachGazette.com
An informed decision
New study explores
the impacts of coastal
erosion, increased storms
in Tillamook County
By Brenna Visser
Cannon Beach Gazette
Coastal erosion and
more intense winter storms
may require policymak-
ers to take another look at
how they plan for future
development.
A new Oregon State
University study, based in
Tillamook County, exam-
ined how beach access and
property would be impacted
by sea level rise and coastal
erosion if planning policies
stayed the same.
Researchers then looked
at the costs, impacts and
implications if the region
changed policies, such as
providing incentives to
move houses out of vul-
nerable areas or loosening
regulation on breakwater
infrastructure.
One approach may pro-
tect more homes from dan-
ger, but comes with a hefty
price tag. Another may be
the best at preventing ero-
sion, but impacts beach
access. The point of the
study is not to tell lawmak-
ers what to do, said Patrick
Corcoran, a coastal hazards
specialist with Oregon State
University’s Sea Grant pro-
gram and co-author of the
paper, but to give informed
direction about the conse-
quences of their choices.
“We can’t control cli-
mate change, at least not
directly,” Corcoran said.
“The one thing we can con-
trol is management. We
need to align our behav-
ior with what we see
happening.”
Different approaches
Roughly a quarter of Til-
lamook County’s popula-
tion lives within a half mile
from the Pacifi c Ocean,
with 40 percent of the coast-
line eroding at rates of more
than 3 feet a year.
According to the study,
coastal hazards are grow-
ing, and can be attributed
to three main drivers: sea
level rise, increases in wave
heights from winter storms
and the frequency of El
Nino weather patterns.
Researchers designed
fi ve different policy scenar-
ios to address what people
in Tillamook County con-
sider priorities: the ability
to use the beach and prop-
erty protection.
They predicted what
would happen if policies
stayed the same, as well as
what would happen with
certain changes, such as
constructing new buildings
on lots that allowed pro-
tective measures like rip-
rap, removing buildings
repetitively impacted by
coastal hazards and having
no development restrictions
at all through 99 different
climate scenarios over the
course of 30 to 90 years.
Overall, the study shows
that if policies in Tillamook
County don’t change, more
than 2,000 buildings will
remain in the hazard zone,
and that damages associ-
ated with coastal fl ood-
ing will cost more than
$150 million over the next
century.
Different
approaches
solved different problems.
Policies that include “strate-
gic retreat” — intentionally
moving buildings out of a
dangerous area — would
see up to 1,800 buildings
relocated and preserve the
most beach access. But it
comes at a price: moving
buildings could cost $300
million after accounting
for the money it would take
to renourish the beach and
create new environmental
easements.
The
“laissez-faire”
approach, where restric-
tions about where to build
and whether riprap is
allowed are stripped, actu-
ally resulted in almost no
buildings being impacted
by erosion in comparison
to the status quo. Predic-
tions show there would be
a spike in homeowners for-
tifying properties that they
currently cannot do under
state law. Current planning
policies would see about 20
buildings a year be affected
by erosion by 2100.
But it, too, was costly,
incurring about $2.5 mil-
lion a year regionally for
costs associated with for-
tifying coastal properties.
The policy also massively
impacts beach accessibil-
ity by interfering with sand
production, which would
also increase total water
levels and lead to more
fl ooding hazards. Cur-
rently, about 80 percent of
the coastline is walkable. In
the worst climate scenario,
that would drop to about 40
percent by 2100 under this
approach.
Though
the
study
doesn’t offer a defi nitive
solution, Corcoran said he
hopes the information can
be used to make long-term
decisions.
“We’re so used to shoot-
ing down ideas,” he said.
“I fi nd it useful for electeds
and others to play through
alternative policies through
the end.”
Local impact
While the study focused
on challenges unique to Til-
lamook County, the broader
lesson of considering devel-
opment hazards is some-
thing that can be applied
across the North Coast.
Studies like this could be
a model for cities to rethink
the development process
in the tsunami inundation
zone.
“(Planning is) proj-
ect driven and opportu-
nity driven,” Corcoran
said. “There’s no sense of
altering development for
hazards”
Such policies could force
planners to “tick some kind
of box” about whether vul-
nerable populations should
be put in areas known to be
historically inundated after
a tsunami, Corcoran said.
Think of the Shoot-
ing Stars Child Develop-
ment Center in Astoria as
an example, he said, which
moved into a building the
Oregon State Police left in
Uniontown because of tsu-
nami danger. It falls into the
3 percent of land consid-
ered to be at most risk for a
tsunami in Astoria, and has
been inundated 17 out of
the last 19 major historical
events.
“If that kind of think-
ing went through the Plan-
ning Commission as a fac-
tor, there might have been
an incentive to fi nd another
location,” he said.
No decision will be per-
fect, but it should at least be
informed.
“Can we, through stra-
tegic decision, at least
make the project less bad?”
Corcoran said.
Lemmon to head regional group
Regional Providence
Group names chief
Cannon Beach Gazette
Don
Lemmon
has
accepted the position of
chief executive for Provi-
dence North Coast Service
Area, which includes Prov-
idence Seaside Hospital.
For nearly four years Lem-
mon has served as direc-
tor of operations for Provi-
dence Hood River Memorial
Hospital. He replaces Ken-
dall Sawa, who accepted a
leadership position at Prov-
idence Portland Medical
Center in October.
Prior to coming to Prov-
idence, Lemmon was vice
president at Penn Highlands
Providence Seaside
Don Lemmon, new chief
executive at regional
Providence hospitals.
Healthcare in DuBois, Penn-
sylvania, where he oversaw
three major service lines.
During his time at Penn
Highlands, Lemmon led
the design and build out of
a new facility that included
a walk-in clinic, retail phar-
macy and other outpatient
services.
Lemmon grew up in
DuBois and attended Inde-
pendence University in Salt
Lake City, Utah, where he
earned a bachelor’s degree
in health care administra-
tion. He also holds a mas-
ter’s degree in health care
management from Western
Governors University in Salt
Lake City. Outside of work,
Lemmon enjoys horseback
riding, cycling and spending
time with his family. Lem-
mon and his wife, Kathy,
look forward to relocating to
the North Coast and becom-
ing active in the community.
Conservancy preserves land
Cannon Beach Gazette
North Coast Land Con-
servancy expanded two of
its existing habitat reserves
when it closed on two land
acquisitions in November
On Nov. 28, North Coast
Land Conservancy acquired
8 acres of prairie habitat on
the east side of Neacoxie
Creek, north of Gearhart.
Neacoxie Prairie Habi-
tat Reserve now spans both
sides of the creek.
According
to
an
announcement from the
conservancy, the acquisition
expands protection of native
plants and animals in the
Neacoxie Wildlife Corri-
dor, where the organization
already conserves more than
800 acres of native habitat
in nearly a dozen reserves.
The National Park Service
partnered with the conser-
vancy to acquire the land
through a transfer of conser-
vation credits..
Butte Creek
A gift of land northeast
of the community of Nes-
kowin, in southern Tilla-
mook County, has increased
the size of North Coast Land
Conservancy’s Butte Creek
Habitat Reserve to nearly
46 acres.
On Nov. 14 Jane and Jack
Casey donated a 10-acre
parcel of forested land run-
ning through Butte Creek,
a tributary of Neskowin
Creek, along with a fi nan-
cial donation that will sup-
port the property’s perpetual
stewardship. The Caseys are
friends of Sue Gabriel, who
in 2016 donated two parcels
of land totaling 35.9 acres,
both of which are bisected
by Butte Creek, to establish
the habitat reserve. Butte
Creek supports populations
of coho salmon and Pacifi c
lamprey. The conservancy
expects to partner with the
Sand Lake, Neskowin and
Nestucca Watershed Coun-
cil in its stewardship of the
land.
OREGON CAPITAL
INSIDER
Get the inside
scoop on state
government
and politics!
239 N. Hemlock • Cannon Beach • 503.436.0208
I still have some chapters
left to write, things I want
to do yet. Feel free to take a
vacation. I might do that, too.
Grateful to be here,
Ann
Calvary
Episcopal Church
DECEMBER 24
8:30 pm - Carol Sing
9 pm - Holy Eucharist
DECEMBER 25
10 am - Holy Eucharist
503 N. Holladay, Dr. • Seaside, OR
THE COASTER THEATRE
PLAYHOUSE PRESENTS
Nov. 16-Dec. 23
Tickets $20 or $25
Shows begin at 7:30pm
Sunday shows at 3:00pm
Sponsored by
The Clark Foundation
COASTER THEATRE PLAYHOUSE
108 N Hemlock St
Cannon Beach, OR
Tickets: 503-436-1242
coastertheatre.com
prov idenceoregon . org / d e a rnor thcoa s t