A10
STATE
Blue Mountain Eagle
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
COVID-19 could crush hospitals with 1,000 patients per day in September
OHSU scientist:
‘giant wave’ over
next four weeks
By Gary A. Warner
Oregon Capital Bureau
The COVID-19 delta variant
is spreading so fast that it will
hit most of the state’s unvacci-
nated population before the six
weeks needed to be fully immu-
nized if they got the shots now.
“We are looking at a giant
wave that is all taking place
over the next four weeks,” said
Peter Graven, a top data scien-
tist at Oregon Health & Science
University.
Graven presented a forecast
Aug. 10 that up to 1,100 people
with COVID-19 will need hos-
pitalization by the time the cur-
rent wave of infections peaks
around Sept. 7.
Oregon hospitals are about
500 staﬀ ed beds short of
being able to absorb that many
patients at one time, Graven
said. With about 1.2 million
unvaccinated people in Oregon,
the delta variant has a large tar-
get to hit.
Oregon on Aug. 10 reported
635 COVID-19 cases in state
hospitals, setting a new record
for the pandemic. The previous
high was 584 people on Nov.
30, 2020. The current wave
has already set new records for
infected patients in Intensive
Care Unit beds. On Aug. 10,
there were 164.
About 90% of those cur-
rently hospitalized are unvacci-
nated, Graven said.
Gov. Kate Brown said she
will have an announcement
about “statewide indoor mask
requirements” on Wednesday.
The governor gave every
indication there will be a mask
mandate for Oregon to blunt the
COVID-19 spike.
“This new mask require-
ment will not last forever, but it
is a measure that can save lives
right now,” Brown said.
The speed of the delta vari-
ant has astounded health oﬃ -
cials, who said each infected
person infects eight other
unvaccinated people. Previous
versions of COVID-19 didn’t
exceed a 1-to-3 infection ratio.
“Being vaccinated now is
too late for this surge,” said Dr.
Renee Edwards, chief medical
oﬃ cer of the Oregon Health &
Science University.
Edwards said the delta vari-
ant makes unvaccinated peo-
ple sicker than earlier waves of
COVID-19. Doctors are see-
ing younger, sicker patients as
many of the elderly were vac-
cinated when the delta variant
arrived.
Many of the newly admit-
ted to hospitals require more
care for a longer time, stretch-
ing staﬀ and causing less turn-
over of beds for patients still to
come.
Brown announced Aug.
10 that all executive branch
employees of the state must
be vaccinated by Oct. 18. The
mandate includes state agencies
under the governor’s control.
Brown said she hoped the
legislative, judicial and other
state agencies will follow suit.
The United States has
reported over 36 million cases,
with epidemiologists estimat-
ing the true number at twice
Eagle ﬁ le photo
A COVID-19 test conducted in
Grant County.
as many due to under-report-
ing and cases with milder
symptoms.
Nationwide, there have been
618,108 deaths from COVID-
19 since January 2020, accord-
ing to the Johns Hopkins Coro-
navirus Resource Center.
Worldwide, it has killed over
4.3 million.
While California and Wash-
ington have been among the
nine states to require masks to
be worn indoors, Brown has
steadfastly stuck with a volun-
tary eﬀ ort. Oregon had state-
wide mask mandates earlier in
the pandemic, but OHA oﬃ -
cials said community appeals
for voluntary compliance would
better reach people who had
refused masks in the past.
The rapidly moving delta
variant convinced Brown and
OHA that a blunt directive
was needed now, especially
with what OHSU estimates
are 1.2 million residents of
the state who are still unvac-
cinated, including children
under 11 for whom no inocu-
lation has been approved
“Oregon is facing a spike
in COVID-19 hospitaliza-
tions — consisting over-
whelmingly of unvaccinated
individuals — that is quickly
exceeding the darkest days of
our winter surge,” Brown said.
“When our hospitals are full,
there will be no room for addi-
tional patients needing care —
whether for COVID-19, a heart
attack or stroke, a car collision,
or a variety of other emergency
situations.”
Because the main vaccines
used in Oregon, made by Pﬁ zer
and Moderna, require two shots
a month apart and a two-week
waiting period afterward to
ensure full immunity, medi-
cal experts said it is already too
late for the unvaccinated to rely
only on shots. They need to stay
at home and keep social dis-
tance eﬀ orts in place. Every-
one should wear masks indoors
to tamp down the spread, they
said.
Brown’s planned announce-
ment could mean the end of her
policy since June 30 to let each
of the state’s 36 counties moni-
tor public health and for county
commissioners to impose
restrictions if needed.
The policy stayed in place
in recent weeks despite increas-
ing infection rates in counties
with low vaccination numbers.
OHSU oﬃ cials said infections
were swamping hospitals in
Josephine and Jackson coun-
ties, while a country music con-
cert in Pendleton fueled a spike
in new infections.
Despite the spike in cases,
the only county to impose mask
requirements has been Mult-
keeps infections from growing
out of control.
Only Grant, Lake and Sher-
man counties were under the
5% mark. Multnomah County,
the state’s most populous
county with 829,560 residents,
was at 5.3%.
Nine counties showed posi-
tive test rates above 18%, with
Morrow at 29.2%. Umatilla
County was at 26.4%. Infec-
tion rates topped 18% in Crook,
Douglas, Curry, Jackson, Jose-
phine, Malheur and Union
counties.
Despite an uptick this
month, vaccination levels in
Oregon have slowed to an aver-
age of under 6,000 shots per
day. That’s down from a peak
of 45,000 per day at some
points in April.
Anti-vaccination measures
have also hamstrung eﬀ orts
in the state. The Kaiser Health
Network, a health news
agency, reported Aug. 10 that
Oregon is one of seven states
with some kind of law that
slows or prohibits the ability
of health oﬃ cials or medical
supervisors to require vacci-
nation of workers.
Oregon legislature passed
a law in 1989 that speciﬁ cally
barred employers from requir-
ing medical and health work-
ers to be vaccinated. Oﬃ -
cials and state lawmakers
have been debating over the
wording of the original legis-
lation and whether it extends
to statewide orders by gov-
ernment oﬃ cials in an emer-
gency. Democratic lawmakers
said they would introduce leg-
islation in the 2022 session to
remove the ban.
nomah County, where the infec-
tion rate last week was half of
the state average.
Brown has sharpened her
criticism of inaction by local
oﬃ cials in areas with spiral-
ing COVID-19 caseloads, espe-
cially as patients in eastern and
southwestern Oregon had to be
transferred to hospitals in Port-
land, Salem, Bend and out of
state. Brown on Aug. 9 con-
ﬁ rmed reports from around the
state that she had contacted local
oﬃ cials in areas with rising
cases to ask what they planned
to do to slow the spread.
“We have a ﬁ nite number
of staﬀ ed hospital beds in Ore-
gon,” Brown said in a state-
ment. “If local leaders continue
not to act and their regional hos-
pitals exceed their capacity, it
will impact hospitals all across
the state.”
OHSU has had to reject some
requests for transfers in order
to keep a minimum number of
beds available for emergency
needs, including the “normal”
mix of heart attacks, traﬃ c acci-
dents and other medical issues
requiring hospitalization.
Oregon has the lowest num-
ber of hospital beds per capita in
the nation, according to a 2018
report from the Kaiser Family
Foundation. Edwards, the med-
ical director for OHSU, would
only say the state has fewer than
most states per person. Staﬀ -
ing hospitals and other health
care has become a major issue
during the pandemic.
OHA reported Monday that
9.5% of all COVID-19 tests
were turning up positive. That’s
nearly twice the 5% level OHA
has said is the highest rate that
Brown extends foreclosure moratorium one more time Brown orders
By Peter Wong
Oregon Capital Bureau
Gov. Kate Brown has
extended a temporary halt
to residential foreclosures
through Dec. 31.
Monday, Aug. 16, was the
deadline under a law passed by
the 2021 Legislature for Brown
to announce the second of two
extensions. She had already
announced the ﬁ rst extension,
which is in eﬀ ect through Sept.
30 — the same day that the cur-
rent federal moratorium ends.
Brown said in a state-
ment announcing the second
extension:
“As we continue to see
record high numbers of
COVID-19 hospitalizations
driven by the Delta surge, I
am committed to ensuring that
Oregonians have a warm, dry,
safe place to live during this
pandemic.
“Extending the temporary
residential foreclosure mora-
torium another three months
will prevent removal of Orego-
nians from their homes by fore-
closure, which would result in
serious health, safety, welfare,
and ﬁ nancial consequences,
and which would undermine
key eﬀ orts to prevent spread of
COVID-19.”
People behind in their mort-
gage payments and facing fore-
closure are advised to meet
with housing counselors in
their communities. They also
will have access to $90 million
in a homeownership assistance
fund, which is in its ﬁ rst stages.
The Oregon Department of
Housing and Community Ser-
vices awaits guidance from the
U.S. Treasury about the fund,
which should be ready in the
fall.
About 70% of Ore-
gon mortgages are federally
backed, according to the Fed-
eral Housing Finance Agency,
which regulates mortgages.
Its moratorium was sched-
uled to end June 30, but it was
extended to July 31, and now,
it’s to Sept. 30.
Unlike the original state
moratorium, which applied
to all properties, House Bill
2009 passed by the 2021 Leg-
islature applies only to a total
of ﬁ ve residential proper-
ties per owner. Each property
can contain no more than four
units. Commercial property is
excluded.
Foreclosures are sepa-
rate from evictions of tenants,
who still can seek rental assis-
tance from the state housing
agency and community action
agencies. Under that program
as of Aug. 11, 26,925 applica-
tions have been ﬁ led requesting
$195 million; 2,797 have been
approved for a total of $17 mil-
lion. The state agency dash-
board reported almost 10,000
more applications have not
been completed.
The Legislature passed a
separate bill (Senate Bill 278)
that bars evictions from being
initiated for 60 days if ten-
ants show proof they have
applied for rental assistance.
That aid started with $200 mil-
lion in state funds, but the fed-
eral government boosted it by
more than $200 million after
Congress passed President Joe
Debbie Ausmus
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return to
statewide
masking
Biden’s pandemic recovery
plan.
Multnomah County has a
separate ordinance setting a
90-day period.
State housing oﬃ cials said
Aug. 4 they have contracted
with an outside vendor, Pub-
lic Partnerships LLC based in
Boston, to work on reducing
the huge backlog of applica-
tions from Multnomah, Wash-
ington and Clackamas coun-
ties. They account for almost
60% of total applications
statewide.
Under a diﬀ erent law (Sen-
ate Bill 282), tenants have until
Feb. 28, 2022, to pay past-
due rent from April 1, 2020,
through June 30 of this year
without fear of eviction.
Neither state bill forgives
any rent.
debbie.ausmus@
countryfinancial.com
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By Gary A. Warner
Oregon Capital Bureau
Gov. Kate Brown ordered a
statewide requirement to wear
masks indoors beginning Friday
in public places as state health oﬃ -
cials worry the delta variant of
COVID-19 is getting out of control.
“Moving forward, for the
immediate future, masks will be
required for all indoor public set-
tings,” Brown said. “Delta is a
diﬀ erent virus — it has changed
everything.”
The mandate applies to adults
and children older than 5. On
public transit, it also includes
children older than 2.
The move came the day
after the Oregon Health & Sci-
ence University’s infectious dis-
ease experts forecast that Ore-
The most valuable and gon could see 1,000 COVID-19
patients in hospitals by early
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would swamp the state medical
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