STATE
MyEagleNews.com
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
A9
GOP hoping to cut into Dem dominance in Salem
By Gary A. Warner
For the Oregon Capital Bureau
Coronavirus
pandemic,
record unemployment, shut-
tered businesses, massive street
demonstrations, armed militias
on the streets — with the wild-
fire season just starting.
It’s 19 weeks until the Nov.
3 election, and the run-up to the
2020 vote is playing out against
one of the most bizarre back-
grounds in Oregon history.
President Donald Trump
will be trying for a second four
years in the White House, a
prospect that will likely push
record numbers of Oregonians
to the polls. In a solidly Dem-
ocratic state where Demo-
crats have a near monopoly on
major political offices, the big-
gest impact will likely be on the
races for the Legislature.
Democrats hold a record-ty-
ing 38-22 edge in the House,
and outnumber Republicans
18-12 in the Senate. Democrats
looking at the electoral map say
there’s room to build on those
numbers.
“While we take nothing for
granted, we are confident that
we will protect and grow our
majorities in both chambers,”
said Molly Woon, deputy direc-
tor of the Democratic Party of
Oregon.
Kevin Hoar, spokesman for
the Oregon Republican Party,
says the electorate is feeling
slammed by the COVID-19
crisis and the state’s economic
shutdown.
They’ll take it out on the
Democrats, he believes.
“A significant number have
lost confidence in Gov. Kate
Brown,” Hoar said. “Watch it
play out in the legislative races.
In swing districts, Democratic
candidates will be running
away from her.”
With Portland a voter-rich
Democratic stronghold and the
wide swaths of Eastern Oregon
resolutely Republican, the com-
petition comes down to a hand-
ful of seats.
Democrats look to Bend and
Rep. Cheri
Helt,
R-Bend
State Sen.
Tim Knopp,
R-Bend
Jason
Kropf
Eileen
Kiely
Democrats hold most
major state posts
ballot box will shape what the
Legislature looks like next
year.
The question on Nov. 3 is
whether those numbers can
hold or if the GOP can flip
enough seats to force Demo-
crats to negotiate in the 2021
session.
Only the most starry-eyed
Republican sees much opportu-
nity up and down the ballot. No
Republican presidential can-
didate has won Oregon since
Ronald Reagan’s reelection in
1984. Democrats running for
reelection for the U.S. Senate,
state treasurer and attorney gen-
eral are favorites. Four of five
seats in Congress are Demo-
crats, a ratio that odds-on will
hold on election day. Republi-
cans’ main hope is to keep the
open Oregon secretary of state
job on the Republican column.
That leaves the Legislature
as the most fertile battleground.
With their current superma-
jorities in the House and Sen-
ate, Democrats can pass budget
and tax bills without Republi-
can help.
The small GOP contin-
gent led then-House Minority
Leader Carl Wilson, R-Grants
Pass, to muse in 2018 that the
GOP weren’t “even speed-
bumps” against the Democratic
juggernaut. The party resorted
to guerrilla tactics, staging
walkouts in 2018 and 2019 to
deny the quorum needed to do
any business.
Republicans said the move
was necessary to block the
“tyranny of the majority.”
Democrats said the absent leg-
islators were abdicating their
roles and stifling the electoral
will of the people. Which nar-
rative gets more traction at the
Democrats looking to
increase their majority or at
least offset losses elsewhere
have their eyes on the seats
held by two Bend Republicans
— first-term Rep. Cheri Helt
and veteran Sen. Tim Knopp.
House District 54 takes in
all but a sliver of Bend. Dem-
ocrats last won House District
54 in 2008, despite a growing
Democratic voter registration
edge. Helt kept the string alive
in 2018 when the campaign
of Democrat Nathan Boddie
imploded amid allegations of
sexual harassment.
Helt has shown she isn’t
a lockstep Republican, split-
ting with her caucus on key
issues such as mandatory vac-
cines and health care for the
poor. She was the lone House
Republican who didn’t walk
out in 2020, and has slammed
Donald Trump, saying he is
“unfit to serve as president.”
Helt is an impressive fund-
raiser, outpacing her 2020
Democratic rival, Deschutes
County Deputy District Attor-
ney Jason Kropf.
The 8,000-person Demo-
cratic voter registration edge
and the likelihood that Trump
at the top of the ballot will
generate a big voter turnout in
the liberal-tilting city may be
too much for the Republican
to overcome.
maybe Salem to add to their
numbers. Republicans want to
flip three suburban Portland dis-
tricts they lost in 2018 and per-
haps pick off districts around
Astoria and Coos Bay.
How blue is Bend?
“Cheri Helt looks like she
is in trouble,” said Jim Moore,
a longtime Oregon politi-
cal analyst and professor at
Pacific University. “Even if
she runs a really strong race,
the reality is she won last time
because the Democrat disinte-
grated. That’s unlikely to hap-
pen again.”
Democratic strength has
been building in Senate Dis-
trict 27, where Knopp is vying
for another four-year term.
Knopp took part in the Repub-
lican walkout in 2019, but
made a point of being the only
GOP senator who remained in
Salem this year.
Woon said Democrats will
remind voters of Knopp’s
vocal stance for the walkout
in 2019, where he gave tele-
vision interviews from a cabin
in Idaho, where he stayed to
avoid any attempt by state
officials to bring him back to
Salem.
“Republicans who walked
out on the job will be held
accountable for their actions,”
Woon said.
Knopp is facing Eileen
Kiely of Sunriver, who lost
the 2018 House District 53
race to Rep. Jack Zika, R-Red-
mond. Kiely is a strong cam-
paigner and has good political
connections as secretary of the
state Democratic Party. But
Knopp is one of the best fund-
raisers in the Legislature and
has turned down the volume
on his conservative image in
recent years.
“The numbers are getting
worse and worse in the dis-
trict for Knopp,” Moore said.
“But I would bet he still has
the edge this year.”
Democrats believe they
have a chance in the Salem
area to knock-off Republican
Sen. Denyc Boles and Rep.
Raquel Moore-Green. Offi-
cially incumbents, both were
recently appointed to their seats
and will be facing district voters
for the first time.
Moore said an election result
in which Democrats held their
current seats would be a vic-
tory to celebrate. Any additional
pick-ups would be a welcome
bonus for Democrats.
Suburban shuffle
The Republican’s Legisla-
ture wish-list starts with three
Portland-area House seats they
lost in 2018. Rep. Rachel Pru-
sak, D-Tualatin, Rep. Court-
ney Neron, D-Aloha, and Rep.
Anna Williams, D-Hood River,
will be running for re-election
for the first time.
In all three races, the Repub-
lican strategy is to cast the Dem-
ocrats as acolytes of Brown.
The challengers are also run-
ning against a common foe:
Portland. Brown is from Port-
land, as are House Speaker
Tina Kotek and House Majority
Leader Barbara Smith Warner.
Hoar said the GOP believes
voters are angry over the eco-
nomic collapse during the pan-
demic, mass demonstrations in
Portland that are now stretch-
ing into their third week and
calls to “defund the police” sup-
ported by some Democratic
officeholders.
“Voters are seeing what’s
almost the collapse of the ability
of local government in Portland
to function,” Hoar said. “The
Democratic candidates who are
following the Portland leaders
in Salem are going to have to
own all this.”
Woon, the Democratic
leader, said the trio of new law-
makers reflect the values of
their districts and the increas-
ingly Democratic hue of the
politics in and around the state’s
largest city.
Moore said the three races
will be a test of whether voters
embrace the idea of a cosmo-
politan shared future with Port-
land or revert to a traditional
urban vs. suburban antagonism.
Capturing the coast
Crunching the numbers,
Republicans see a newly fertile
area: the northwestern knob of
counties along the Pacific Coast
and the mouth of the Columbia
River. Columbia and Tillamook
were the only Oregon counties
that voted for Barack Obama
in 2008 and 2012, then flipped
to Trump in 2016. In Clatsop
County, a pair of candidates
backed by Oregon Right-to-Life
and other conservative groups
unseated two incumbents, giv-
ing the GOP a de facto major-
ity on the officially non-partisan
county commission.
Republicans see opportu-
nity in the politically wobbly
House District 32. Rep. Debo-
rah Boone, D-Cannon Beach,
stepped down in 2018 after
seven terms. Tiffiny Mitchell,
a state child welfare worker,
mounted an insurgent cam-
paign with backing from public
employee unions, winning the
seat with less than 50% of the
fractured vote in both the pri-
mary and general elections.
The Timber Unity activ-
ist group targeted Mitchell for
recall over her support for a car-
bon emissions cap. The recall
fizzled, but Mitchell decided
to call it quits after one term,
announcing she would move to
Washington for family reasons.
Tillamook Mayor Suzanne
Weber won the Republi-
can primary. Democrat Deb-
bie Boothe-Schmidt, a trial
assistant from Cannon Beach
backed by the AFSCME public
employee union, is the Demo-
cratic candidate.
Republicans also see oppor-
tunity in Coos Bay, where two
Democratic veterans — Sen.
Arnie Roblan and Rep. Caddy
McKeown — are retiring. The
area has been a stronghold for
protesters of the Timber Unity
coalition against a Democratic
carbon emissions tax. It’s also
been roiled by a long fight over
a proposed liquid natural gas
terminal in Coos Bay. Roblan
won re-election by just 349
votes in 2016.
Republican Teri Grier came
close to knocking-off McKe-
own in 2016, a wake-up call for
the Democrat who would raise
over $1 million to beat back
Grier in a repeat race in 2018.
70,000 newly eligible unemployment claims remain unprocessed
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benefits available under the
coronavirus relief bill through
July 31. U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden,
D-Oregon, is pushing for an
extension, but it is caught up
in congressional politics. The
Democratic-led House has
passed $3 trillion more in var-
ious forms of federal aid. But
the Republican majority in the
Senate has balked at the price
tag, though some are conced-
ing more money is needed to
counter the downturn caused by
business shutdowns during the
coronavirus pandemic.
Gerstenfeld said benefits are
retroactive to the first week of
eligibility, so people who have
given up should apply again
under the new program.
The agency also added 138
telephone lines — and plans
150 more over the next cou-
ple of weeks — to help staff
handle calls to and from the
newly eligible workers. A dedi-
cated number, 833-410-1004, is
reserved for this program.
“We know people are still
getting busy signals and are
having to wait too long on
hold,” Gerstenfeld said.
He said the agency will lay
out a timetable, similar to Proj-
ect Focus 100 for the backlog of
regular claims, to inform people
generally about how the agency
will deal with their claims.
The agency will sched-
ule several webinars, the first
planned at 1 p.m. Friday, to
help answer frequently asked
questions.
“We are trying to get more
information out to answer some
of the common questions we
are seeing,” he said.
“They are not just numbers.
Each number represents either a
person we are able to get direly
needed benefits to, or a person
anxiously waiting for us to do
so.”
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have a breakfast of ADVERTISED JUICE, cereal and toast, toasted in an
ADVERTISED TOASTER, put on ADVERTISED CLOTHES and glance at his
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hesitates to advertise, saying that advertising doesn’t pay. Finally, when his
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About 70,000 Oregonians
newly eligible for unemploy-
ment benefits — the self-em-
ployed, independent contrac-
tors, gig and temporary workers
— await state processing of
their claims.
Having virtually eliminated
a backlog of 38,000 claims for
regular benefits by a self-im-
posed deadline of June 12,
Employment Department offi-
cials have turned their full atten-
tion to the new batch of claims
created when Congress broad-
ened the categories of eligible
workers at the end of March.
Interim Director David Ger-
stenfeld said Wednesday that a
total of 97,000 claims have been
filed by workers newly eligible
under the Pandemic Unemploy-
ment Assistance program. Of
24,000 processed so far, he said,
just under 17,000 are receiving
benefits, totaling $90 million —
but the rest remain.
“We know these numbers
are discouraging, frustrating,
and frankly frightening,” Ger-
stenfeld said in a conference
call with reporters. “It is cer-
tainly not the news I had hoped
to deliver today. But I am com-
mitted to transparency, account-
ability and swift action.
“We recognize this is a crisis
situation, and we will continue
treating it as one.”
Many of the most experi-
enced claims processors have
been reassigned from the old
backlog to work on the new
claims, along with some newly
hired people, for a total of 60.
“We have learned how much
progress we can make when we
have our most experienced staff
process those applications,” he
said.
But the same coronavirus
relief bill that made these work-
ers newly eligible for benefits
— the first significant expan-
sion of the unemployment
insurance system in decades
— also requires states to ver-
ify that the workers are ineli-
gible for regular benefits. Ger-
stenfeld said 79,000 applicants
were deemed ineligible for reg-
ular benefits, but may be eligi-
ble for the new benefits — if
they apply separately.
“We have had to create an
entirely different claims process
outside our normal system,” he
said. “Sometimes this requires a
detailed review to see if some-
one is considered an employee
or an independent contractor
under the law.”
The minimum benefit is
$205 per week, though Ger-
stenfeld said many applicants
can qualify for more after their
claims are reviewed.
They also qualify for the
additional $600 per week in
7
Blue Mountain Eagle
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By Peter Wong
Oregon Capital Bureau
MyEagleNews.com
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