C1
B USINESS
THE BULLETIN • SUNDAY, MAY 23, 2021
bendbulletin.com/business
‘THE SHOCK ...
IS BEHIND US’
Central Oregon’s economy shows more signs of recovery, index shows
BY SUZANNE ROIG
The Bulletin
entral Oregon’s economy has
firmly put the shock of the
COVID-19 restrictions behind
it, according to the quarterly
business index.
Lodging revenues are up. The housing
market is growing, despite a low level of
inventory. Even initial unemployment
claims are near pre-pandemic levels. But
plane travel is lagging and job recovery
still has not recovered all that was lost
due to shutdowns designed to control
the spread of the virus.
Those are the conclusions of the quar-
terly Central Oregon Business Index,
which provides a snapshot of business
activity by examining nine variables,
which are adjusted seasonally.
The index rose 5.3% in the first quar-
ter of the year over the fourth quarter
of 2020 and now stands 6.8% above the
same time the year before, said Tim Duy,
C
The Bulletin
Editor’s note: The Bulletin has partnered with the
University of Oregon’s College of Arts and Sciences
and Department of Economics to produce the
Central Oregon Business Index. The index provides
a regular snapshot of the region’s economy
using economic models consistent with national
standards. The index, exclusive to The Bulletin,
appears quarterly in the Business section.
author of the index and a University of
Oregon professor of practice in econom-
ics. The index was at 136.7 , compared to
the fourth quarter of 2020 when it was
131.5 , which has been adjusted down-
ward from what was previously reported.
The number of jobs climbed by 1,200
in Central Oregon during the first quar-
ter, Duy said. Despite adding more jobs,
the region still has 4,400 fewer jobs this
first quarter. Duy said it was perplexing
to have fewer jobs given the tight labor
market in Central Oregon.
“If you look at the underlying indi-
cators, the shock to the economy is be-
hind us,” Duy said. “We’ll continue to see
continued improvement in the form of
job growth and that’s what people care
about. The upside here and there’s a lot
of potential, for job growth to pick up in
the sectors most impacted.”
See Index / C8
BACKGROUND: Pilot Greg Miller visits with a group
of passengers while conducting a tethered flight in
his hot air balloon Tulip Topper during the Central
Oregon Sportsmen’s Show at the Deschutes County
Fair & Expo Center in Redmond on March 13. The
Sportsmen’s Show was one of the first major events
held in the region during the pandemic.
Ryan Brennecke/The Bulletin file
160
NATIONAL
RECESSION
NATIONAL
RECESSION
NATIONAL
RECESSION
University of Oregon
150
Central Oregon Business Index
140
This data combines nine economic statistics into a single variable. The variables — labor
market, tourism, housing markets, waste generation and the state economy — are chosen
on the basis of economic relevance, timely availability and sufficiently long history. The
baseline of 100 was set in 1998 with that year’s numbers.
2021 Q1
140.1
UP
7 pts.
over
previous
quarter
2006 Q2
130
124.5
120
2001 Q1
107
110
2009 Q2
96.1
100
90
Year
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: University of Oregon College of Arts and Sciences and Department of Economics
Clarinda Simpson/The Bulletin