A2 THE BULLETIN • WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2021
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GENERAL
INFORMATION
COVID-19 data for Tuesday, Feb. 2:
Deschutes County cases: 5,450 (18 new cases)
Deschutes County deaths: 45 (zero new deaths)
Crook County cases: 695 (3 new cases)
Crook County deaths: 15 (zero new deaths)
Jefferson County cases: 1,782 (5 new cases)
Jefferson County deaths: 25 (zero new deaths)
Oregon cases: 143,978 (619 new cases)
Oregon deaths: 1,981 (23 new deaths)
130
(Dec. 4)
What is COVID-19? It’s an infection caused by a new
coronavirus. Symptoms include fever, coughing and
shortness of breath. This virus can be fatal.
7 ways to help limit its spread: 1. Wash hands often
with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. 2. Avoid
touching your face. 3. Avoid close contact with sick
people. 4. Stay home. 5. In public, stay 6 feet from others
and wear a mask. 6. Cough into your elbow. 7. Clean and
disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
LOCAL
VACCINATIONS
22,435
Number of vaccinations
given by St. Charles
Health System
108 new cases
120
(Jan. 1)
90
new
cases
110
*No data
available on
Jan. 31
due to state
computer
maintenence
(Nov. 27)
90
70
60
50
(Nov. 14)
7-day
average
8 a.m.-5 p.m. Mon.-Fri.
28 new cases
(July 16)
40
31 new cases
(Oct. 31)
30
16 new cases
(Sept. 19)
9 new cases
20
(May 20)
1st case
100
80
47 new cases
541-382-1811
ONLINE
BULLETIN
GRAPHIC
129 new cases
COVID-19 patients hospitalized at St. Charles
Bend on Tuesday: 12 (2 in ICU).
www.bendbulletin.com
SOURCES: OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY,
DESCHUTES COUNTY HEALTH SERVICES
New COVID-19 cases per day
10
(March 11)
*
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ý
budget shortfall
BY KALEB LAY
The Observer (La Grande)
Street .............. 320 SW Upper Terrace Drive
Suite 200
Bend, OR 97702
Mailing ........... P.O. Box 6020
Bend, OR 97708
Modeling shows Oregon now Oregon could
gaining upper hand on virus face $1.6 billion
Lottery results can now be found on
the second page of Sports.
SALEM — New pandemic mod-
eling from the Oregon Health Au-
thority, the Centre for Mathematical
Modeling of Infectious Diseases and
others indicates COVID-19 is on
the decline across Oregon and could
continue to taper off into the com-
ing months, returning to levels not
seen in months.
The OHA, mathematical mod-
eling center, COVID Act Now and
the Institute for Health Modeling
and Evaluation all place the rate of
COVID-19 transmission in Oregon
below 1.0 in their most recent mod-
els, indicating each new case of the
disease on average results in fewer
than one subsequent new case. The
highest estimated rate of transmis-
sion was 0.85 by the Institute for
Health Modeling, while the lowest
was 0.69 by the mathematical mod-
eling center.
The Oregon Health Authori-
ty’s modeling, published Thursday,
puts the rate of transmission as of
that day at 0.81. Projections of what
could happen if that rate remains
constant into the coming weeks
found that Oregon could average
just 420 new cases of COVID-19
and 13 new hospitalizations each
day by Feb. 16.
For context, Oregon has not
consistently reported daily new
COVID-19 cases at that level since
late October, before daily new infec-
tions jumped into the thousands in
mid-November, leading to the “two-
week freeze” and subsequently to
BY HILLARY BORRUD
The Oregonian
Kaleb Lay/La Grande Observer
A cloth face mask dangles Monday on a bush in downtown La Grande.
the risk and protection framework,
under which many counties have
been locked in the “extreme risk”
category ever since.
The Institute for Health Metrics
and Evaluation, which in previous
models had projected that Oregon’s
COVID-19 death toll would reach
5,011 by April 1, now projects a
“most likely” scenario in which the
state death toll stands at 2,499 on
May 1.
With the state’s death toll at 1,930,
the 569 additional projected deaths
in the coming three months would
represent a significant decline in
fatalities from recent months. In
December, for example, 565 peo-
ple died from COVID-19 in Ore-
gon, along with 483 in January as of
the 30th, according to the Oregon
Health Authority.
But the models also contain no
shortage of reminders that the state
of the pandemic — and any pro-
jected recovery from the winter
surge that may eventually come true
— is precarious.
The OHA, for example, projected
what could happen if the rate of
transmission increases 30%, to 1.1.
In that situation, average new daily
cases would reach 720 with 24 new
hospitalizations per day.
LOCAL BRIEFING
Inmate’s estate to sue
sheriff’s office
Bentz named to U.S. House
Judiciary Committee
The estate of Scott Douglas
Baksis, whose recent death in
the Deschutes County jail was
ruled a suicide, intends to sue
the Deschutes County Sheriff’s
Office.
According to a notice of in-
tent to sue filed recently with
the county legal department,
Baksis’ estate intends to bring
claims of wrongful death and
civil rights violations for “fail-
ing to adequately monitor Mr.
Baksis, provide him with ap-
propriate psychiatric treatment
and counseling, and or place
him on suicide watch, among
other potential violations.”
Baksis, 31, died at St. Charles
Bend on Dec. 6, three days
after being found unrespon-
sive in his cell in the Deschutes
County jail. He was awaiting
trial for charges of felony DUII
and driving with a suspended
license.
The criminal investigation
into the death concluded Bak-
sis hung himself with a towel
tied to his bunk, Deschutes
County District Attorney
John Hummel announced last
week. He was being housed
alone in a cell as part of a 5-day
COVID-19 observation period
for new arrivals at the jail.
Baksis’ estate has retained
Bend civil attorney Brian
Dretke and John Coletti of
Portland.
The sheriff’s office would
not comment Tuesday. “The
sheriff’s office does not com-
ment on pending litigation,”
said sheriff’s spokesman Sgt.
Jayson Janes.
Freshman Rep. U.S. Rep. Cliff
Bentz, R-Ontario, has been named
to the House Judiciary Committee.
It’s the second assignment for Bentz,
who earlier was named to the House
Natural Resources Committee.
The panel deals with legislation
on a sweeping list of legal issues: an-
ti-trust, civil rights, constitutional
law, immigration, intellectual prop-
erty and terrorism.
Bentz, a 1977 graduate of the
Lewis & Clark Law School, will bring
his experience as an attorney and his
tenure in both houses of the Oregon
Legislature to the committee.
Bentz replaced long-time Rep.
Greg Walden, R-Hood River, as rep-
resentative of Oregon’s 2nd Congres-
sional District. Walden retired at the
end of the last session.
Oregon’s 2nd Congressional Dis-
trict is one of the largest by size in
Congress, covering nearly 70,000
square miles in Eastern, Central and
Southern Oregon.
— Bulletin wire reports
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541.382.1811
Oregon could face a $1.6 billion shortfall in
the next two-year budget due to immense un-
anticipated spending on pandemic and wild-
fire recovery and a slowdown in tax revenue
growth.
Less than two months ago, legislative ana-
lysts pegged the dollar figure for a status quo
2021-23 budget at $25.6 billion. They pre-
dicted the state would be $793 million short of
general fund and lottery dollars needed to bal-
ance that budget.
Then, lawmakers approved $800 million in
additional COVID-19 response and wildfire
recovery spending, including to aid to tenants
and landlords, during a one-day special ses-
sion in December. That brought the potential
budget gap for the next two-year cycle to $1.6
billion.
Rep. Dan Rayfield, a Corvallis Democrat
who is a co-chair of the Ways and Means com-
mittee, said in a news briefing with House
Speaker Tina Kotek on Monday that legisla-
tive committees will soon begin working on
proposals for how state agencies could absorb
budget cuts of 5% to 7%, if that turns out to be
necessary.
Even as Oregon lawmakers spent more
than anticipated last year in response to the
pandemic and historically large wildfires, the
state’s tax revenues grew more slowly than ex-
pected. Still, income tax revenue remained
stronger than some leaders initially worried it
might be in the early months of the pandemic.
Lawmakers will get a better picture of the rev-
enue outlook at forecasts on Feb. 24 and May
19.
Kotek, a Democrat from Portland, recalled
how the forecast for tax and lottery revenues
shot up $2 billion in September, surprising
many and taking some of the short-term fiscal
pressure off lawmakers.
Therefore, she wants to wait on the addi-
tional forecasts this month and in the spring
before making budget decisions, she said.
Rayfield said video lottery closures due to
the pandemic cost the state tens of millions of
dollars a week in lost revenue. He also noted
that a new law that voters approved in No-
vember contributes to the budget gap by redi-
recting roughly $100 million in recreational
marijuana tax revenue from public schools to
“addiction recovery centers” and drug treat-
ment and related services.
To balance the 2021- 23 budget, Rayfield said
he expects lawmakers will need to use a com-
bination of cuts to government services, tap-
ping savings accounts and assistance from the
federal government. He noted one state reserve
account is known as the rainy day fund and “I
would most certainly say that it’s raining.”
Heidi Olson-Dunlap
Broker
Mountain Living Real Estate Group of Central Oregon
Mountainlivingreg.com