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BAKER CITY
Opinion
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022 • Baker City, Oregon
EDITORIAL
Tax kickers
and health care
T
he kicker has been kicking a lot lately in
Oregon. It’s the Oregon law that requires
the state government to return revenues to
taxpayers if the state is off in its revenue estimates.
The kicker kicks if actual state revenues exceed the
forecasted revenues by 2% over a two-year budget cy-
cle. The excess — including that 2% — gets returned
to taxpayers in a credit on their returns. The corporate
kicker goes to education.
It doesn’t kick every time. Since 2013, it’s been going
off regularly.
That should tell Oregonians something about how
hard it can be to make accurate economic revenue
projections. And we wonder if it should raise ques-
tions about the proposal to move Oregon to a univer-
sal health care system.
State revenue projections and making fiscal projec-
tions about moving Oregon to a universal health care
system are not the same thing. But both require the
state to make complicated guesses. And the state can
get them wrong.
The Joint Task Force on Universal Health Care
meets again this week. It is coming up with a plan that
the Legislature could adopt to move Oregon to uni-
versal health care. One topic in the task force’s docu-
ments for the meeting this week: financial projections.
The proposal for universal health care is that all Or-
egonians would be covered, including undocumented
immigrants. The coverage would be similar to what
many public employees get in Oregon now. Dental,
too.
There would be no copayments, deductibles or pre-
miums. The single-payer system would be the only
health care system available in the state. Supplemental
coverage would basically not be allowed.
The money to pay for it would come from a new in-
come tax on Oregonians and a new payroll tax on em-
ployers. How much would those taxes be?
Not clear, yet. Numbers that the task force have dis-
cussed would ramp up based on income. According
to those, a family of four would pay the highest mar-
ginal rate of 9.3% for income over $110,000. House-
holds below 200% of the federal poverty level would
pay zero. The employer payroll tax would be based on
wages of employees. Numbers suggested have been a
marginal tax rate of 7.25% below $160,000 a year and
at a higher rate over that.
The new financial analysis prepared for the task
force points out some interesting challenges. It’s based
on estimates of many factors:
• how much more people might use the system
when they don’t pay anything extra for using it;
• how much more dental work people might have
done;
• how much emergency room care may decline;
• how much the state will be able to save because it
will be negotiating prices;
• how much less costs will be because insurance
margins will be eliminated;
• how much fraud, waste and abuse will eliminated;
And there are many more.
Will the estimates get that right? It’s important be-
cause the Oregon Constitution requires a balanced
budget. It needs expenditures to balance with reve-
nues. That means if the state goes ahead with a uni-
versal health system it is going to need to set aside
sufficient reserves to cover any surprises in costs and
revenues.
How much will that need to be? How accurate will
the projections be? Will it be dead on? Or more like
the kicker?
The Legislature is accustomed to making budget
adjustments. And state officials have implemented
new, complex programs. Happens all the time. But it’s
not like state government has taken over health care
before.
Unsigned editorials are the opinion of the Baker City Herald. Columns,
letters and cartoons on this page express the opinions of the authors and not
necessarily that of the Baker City Herald.
COLUMN
Is Oregon about to elect an anti-woke,
pro-gun independent as governor?
BY MARK Z. BARABAK
B
etsy Johnson is firmly
behind the wheel, driv-
ing through an urban
dystopia of poverty and de-
spair.
“God knows, we need a real
solution to the homeless crisis,”
she says brusquely. Tent cities
and garbage-strewn sidewalks
flash by. It will require new
leadership, she goes on, and a
different type of politics, em-
bracing the best ideas of Dem-
ocrats and Republicans, with-
out regard to party labels.
“We shouldn’t have to
choose,” says Johnson, who is
waging an improbably strong
bid for Oregon governor,
raising the prospect the sap-
phire-blue state could elect a
gun-loving, corporate-hugging,
woke-bashing political inde-
pendent as its next leader.
Or, just as surprising, a Re-
publican, which hasn’t hap-
pened since Ronald Reagan
was in the White House.
For all the focus on control
of the House and Senate, there
are 36 gubernatorial contests
on the ballot in November.
Their import has increased
as policies on abortion, guns
and other issues increasingly
diverge, depending on which
party holds power in a given
state.
Most of the races aren’t likely
to result in a partisan shift.
Democrats are poised to flip
Maryland and Massachusetts
after Republicans nominated
Trump loyalists in those blue
states.
Republicans hope to oust
Democratic incumbents in
Kansas, Nevada and Wiscon-
sin, but pickup opportunities
in Pennsylvania and Michigan
may be out of reach after the
GOP nominated far-right con-
servatives in those swing states.
That has heightened Repub-
lican interest in Oregon, which
last elected a GOP governor in
1982.
Democrat Tina Kotek, the
former speaker of the state
House, remains the favorite
to win in November, if for no
other reason than Democrats
and voters who lean their way
considerably outnumber Ore-
gon Republicans.
The mathematics of the
three-way contest, however,
make it quite possible the next
governor could be elected with
less than 50% support, open-
ing the door for Johnson or the
GOP nominee, Christine Dra-
zan, to slip through.
In theory, 35% of the vote
could be enough to win and
thus end years of Democratic
reign along the Left Coast,
from Baja California to Cana-
da’s border.
Drazan, the former Repub-
lican leader in the state House,
is running hard against sin-
gle-party rule in Salem, the state
capital. “We need real leader-
ship and real change to hold the
Democrats to account,” Drazan
said when the three candidates
debated in July.
But the only reason she
stands a chance is the presence
of Johnson and the hope she
might siphon enough votes
away from Kotek.
The heir to a timber fortune,
Johnson served 20 years in the
Legislature, representing rural
Oregon as a center-right Dem-
ocrat before leaving the party
and resigning from the state
Senate last December to focus
on her unaffiliated run for gov-
ernor.
She likens herself to Gold-
ilocks, neither too far left nor
too far right, but her acerbic
persona and harsh attacks on
rivals suggest little of the inno-
cent fairy tale character.
Drazan, Johnson says, “wants
to be the first anti-choice gover-
nor in Oregon’s history,” under-
mining the state’s strong sup-
port for legal abortion. Kotek,
vying to become the nation’s
first governor who has come
out as lesbian, “wants to bring
the culture wars to your kid’s
classroom. She’d have us all
woke and broke.”
If ever Oregonians were
hungering for something new
and different, now would seem
the time, with polls show-
ing deep discontent and the
incumbent, Democrat Kate
Brown, leaving office as one of
the least popular governors in
America.
“People are very concerned
and angry and anxious about
the status quo,” said Len Berg-
stein, a public affairs consultant
who’s been involved in Oregon
politics since the 1970s.
After deadly wildfires,
years of pandemic and weeks
of right-vs.-left protests that
turned parts of downtown
Portland into an armed camp,
“There are a lot of people who
feel we’ve lost our way,” Berg-
stein said.
Johnson taps into those frus-
trations with her TV ad driv-
ing through blighted Portland
and her disdainful lumping to-
gether of the two major parties.
“Oregonians are distrustful of
the radical right,” she says.
“And they are terrified of the
progressive left.”
For all the evident frustra-
tion, however, Oregon is no
Alabama or Arkansas, to name
two deeply conservative bas-
tions, and several of Johnson’s
positions clearly cut against the
state’s political grain.
The proud owner of a Cold
War-era machine gun, she re-
sponds to the ravages of gun
OTHER VIEWS
Who will become the next Solyndra?
EDITORIAL FROM
THE LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
The idea that politicians know better than
the free marketplace when it comes to allo-
cating resources has been the driving force
for some of the most destructive and deadly
philosophies of the past 200 years. So why
does it remain a bedrock principle of pro-
gressive governance?
President Joe Biden and his secretary of
commerce recently announced the distribu-
tion of $1 billion in federal grants to various
special interests. The money was part of the
$1.9 trillion inflationary coronavirus relief
bill passed by Congress in March 2021. The
Associated Press reports that the money will
go to 21 recipients “chosen from 529 initial
applicants.”
The lucky few include “$65.1 million for
California to improve farm production and
$25 million for a robotics cluster in Ne-
braska,” the wire service says. “Georgia gets
$65 million for artificial intelligence. There
is $63.7 million for lithium-based battery
development in New York. Coal counties in
West Virginia would receive $62.8 million to
help with the shift to solar power.”
Laughably, the AP reports that the Biden
administration “said the winners were cho-
sen based on merit rather than politics.” Yet
at the same time, the story notes that the
president was interested in how these tax-
payer grants would “play out on the political
scene” and that “money is also going ahead
of November’s midterm elections toward po-
litical battlegrounds that could decide con-
trol of Congress.”
What any of this has to do with the pan-
demic is a mystery. In truth, the $1.9 trillion
measure — which many economists believe
helped trigger the worst inflation in four de-
cades — was progressive pork masquerading
as coronavirus relief. Not only did the legis-
lation overheat an already blistering econ-
omy, it is a monument to rent seeking and
economic inefficiency.
Yet the White House is still pressuring
Congress to pass an additional $10 billion
in pandemic money, arguing that it needs
the resources to control future variants. Re-
publicans have resisted, for obvious reasons.
If mitigating potential future coronavirus
outbreaks were important to Biden and his
fellow Democrats, perhaps they should have
included funding for such measures in the
bill ostensibly written for precisely that pur-
pose. New Orleans gets $50 billion for green
energy projects thanks to the virus relief leg-
islation. What if that had been just $40 bil-
lion?
The economic distortions that result from
elected officials allocating resources based
on political considerations makes the nation
poorer as a whole. The most pressing ques-
tion about Biden picking winners and losers
with other people’s money: Which one of the
“winners” announced last week will become
the next Solyndra?
violence by ticking off NRA
talking points about increasing
school security and boosting
mental health services.
Her preferred method to
fight climate change, im-
proving management of Ore-
gon’s forests, recalls President
Trump’s much-ridiculed sug-
gestion the country rake its
woodlands to prevent wildfires.
She sounds populist notes
and promises to be a voice for
the “pissed off,” but has ben-
efited handsomely from the
support of CEOs and oth-
ers among the well-off. Phil
Knight, the billionaire founder
of Nike and Oregon’s richest
man, has kicked in $1.75 mil-
lion, helping Johnson outraise
her opponents.
For her part, after years in
power, Kotek has the unenvi-
able task of convincing voters
that as bad as things seem, they
will get better.
Eventually.
“No matter what the other
candidates say here today, there
are no quick fixes,” the Dem-
ocratic former House speaker
said in opening the first, and so
far only, gubernatorial debate.
“There are no miracle cures.”
The notion of someone be-
holden to no one, save voters,
sweeping in to make bold and
dramatic change and rid the
political system of its iniquities
is a popular and enduring one.
Plenty of third-party and inde-
pendent candidates have tried
it. Most end up fizzling.
Johnson has already ex-
ceeded expectations with her
strong fundraising and solid
showing in polls. If she catches
a few breaks, she could end up
being Oregon’s next governor.
Mark Z. Barabak is a columnist for
the Los Angeles Times, focusing on
politics in California and the West.
CONTACT YOUR
PUBLIC OFFICIALS
President Joe Biden: The White House,
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., Washington,
D.C. 20500; 202-456-1111; to send
comments, go to www.whitehouse.gov.
U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley: D.C. office: 313
Hart Senate Office Building, U.S. Senate,
Washington, D.C., 20510; 202-224-3753;
fax 202-228-3997. Portland office: One
World Trade Center, 121 S.W. Salmon
St. Suite 1250, Portland, OR 97204; 503-
326-3386; fax 503-326-2900. Baker City
office, 1705 Main St., Suite 504, 541-
278-1129; merkley.senate.gov.
U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden: D.C. office:
221 Dirksen Senate Office Building,
Washington, D.C., 20510; 202-224-5244;
fax 202-228-2717. La Grande office: 105
Fir St., No. 210, La Grande, OR 97850;
541-962-7691; fax, 541-963-0885;
wyden.senate.gov.
U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz (2nd District):
D.C. office: 1239 Longworth House
Office Building, Washington, D.C.,
20515, 202-225-6730; fax 202-225-
5774. Medford office: 14 N. Central
Avenue Suite 112, Medford, OR 97850;
Phone: 541-776-4646; fax: 541-779-
0204; Ontario office: 2430 S.W. Fourth
Ave., No. 2, Ontario, OR 97914; Phone:
541-709-2040. bentz.house.gov.
Oregon Gov. Kate Brown: 254 State
Capitol, Salem, OR 97310; 503-378-
3111; www.governor.oregon.gov.
Oregon State Treasurer Tobias Read:
oregon.treasurer@ost.state.or.us; 350
Winter St. NE, Suite 100, Salem OR
97301-3896; 503-378-4000.
State Sen. Lynn Findley (R-Ontario):
Salem office: 900 Court St. N.E., S-403,
Salem, OR 97301; 503-986-1730. Email:
Sen.LynnFindley@oregonlegislature.
gov