BUSINESS & AG LIFE THURSDAY, JUNE 9, 2022 THE OBSERVER & BAKER CITY HERALD — B3 California drought expected to raise energy costs in Northwest By DON JENKINS Capital Press SALEM — The wholesale price of electricity will rise in the Northwest this summer as drought-stricken California buys energy from neighboring states to off set a nearly 50% reduction in hydropower, the U.S. Energy Information Administration pro- jects in a new report. California can cover about half of the 6 million megawatt-hour cut in hydropower by ramping up natural gas plants but will need to purchase electricity on Western power markets to make up the rest, according to the EIA. California’s demand for elec- tricity will in turn put pressure on power supplies elsewhere. The EIA estimates the Golden State’s drought will push up peak-demand wholesale prices by 5% in Idaho, Oregon and Washington to an average of $59 per megawatt-hour. “California has a diverse elec- tricity fuel mix and is highly inter- connected with the regional elec- Capital Press, File The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a sharp decline this summer in the amount of electricity generated at Shasta Dam and other hydropower facilities in California. tric grid, but our study shows that a signifi cant decrease in hydro- power generation this summer could lead to higher electricity prices, among other eff ects,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement. The EIA’s report supplemented a forecast on retail electricity prices. Assuming a cooler summer than last year, the EIA projected customers will pay about 4% more in the West than in 2021, though rates will vary widely by utility. Wholesale prices are more vol- atile than retail rates, refl ecting the ever-changing demand for and supply of energy, especially on the hottest summer days, according to the EIA. Drought blankets California. About 60% of the state is in an “extreme” or “exceptional” drought, the two worst catego- ries, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. California’s snowpack was 54% of normal on April 1. With little snow to melt into already lower reservoirs, the state will generate 48% less hydroelectricity between June 1 and Sept. 30 than in a non- drought year, the EIA forecasts. Normally, hydroelectricity meets about 15% of the state’s summer energy needs. This year, it will provide 8%, the EIA projects. To partially fi ll the gap, Cal- ifornia will use more electricity generated by natural gas. The EIA estimated carbon emissions from the energy sector will increase by 978,000 tons, or 6%. Even then, the state will need to import another 2.9 million mega- watts-hours. California already buys one-third of its power from out-of-state sources. The EIA projected California will generate about as much hydropower this summer as it did in 2015, another poor water year. The state, however, has less ability than it did seven years ago to ramp up during peak demands to off set the lost of hydropower, according to the EIA. California has added solar power and battery storage since 2015, but 58% of the state’s natural gas-fi red power capacity was shut down. The EIA said droughts in Ari- zona and Nevada also could push up the cost of electricity. Prices could be held down if retail cus- tomers adjust and use less elec- tricity during peak times, according to the report. Oregon State research fi nds ways to slow wildfi res in critical sagebrush rangelands By ALEX BAUMHARDT Oregon Capital Chronicle CORVALLIS — Nearly 45% of historic sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin — 200,000 square miles of California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming — have been lost to invasive plants, grasses and wildfi res, according to the federal Bureau of Land Management. To slow the frequency and severity of such fi res, scientists at Oregon State University undertook a 10-year study of the long- term eff ects of popular fi re prevention and mitigation methods to see which ones were successful over many years, and which only had short-term impacts. In a new report pub- lished in the scientifi c journal Ecosphere, those scientists concluded that thinning vegetation across the sagebrush landscape was the most eff ective, long-term method for mit- igating wildfi re spread and severity. Other methods, such as prescribed burns and the use of herbicides to kill non-native grasses and invasive tree and shrub spe- cies were only eff ective in the short term. The OSU scientists teamed up with specialists from Great Basin states, including Eva Strand, a pro- fessor of rangeland ecology and management at the Uni- versity of Idaho. She said studying this over a decade gave scientists a broader perspective. “A treatment might be followed for a couple years, but there’s no looking at the long-term response,” she said. “With this, we could see for how long these methods are eff ective in mitigating wildfi re.” The scientists didn’t ignite fi res but used com- puter models to study how each treatment — thinning, herbicides or prescribed burns — could impact the speed of a fi re’s spread and the height of the fl ames. In their study, the scien- tists found that herbicides left behind dead vegetation that could create hotter fi res with higher fl ames. They found prescribed burns were eff ective short term, but long term, invasive grasses quickly returned and reestablished them- selves, creating a greater fi re risk. Strand said their fi ndings will also impact fi refi ghter safety in a wildfi re. “We were able to model how they actually impact fi re behavior,” she said. “We can tell which methods create shorter fl ame lengths, East Oregonian, File In a new report published in the scientifi c journal Ecosphere, scientists concluded that thinning vegetation across the sagebrush landscape was the most eff ective, long-term method for mitigating wildfi re spread and severity. so fi refi ghters can approach it in a diff erent way.” Oversight by Bureau of Land Management The bulk of sage- brush ecosystems in the Great Basin are overseen by the federal Bureau of Land Management, which is currently involved in a project to create fuel breaks along 435 miles of roads throughout sage- brush habitat along the Ore- gon-Idaho-Nevada border in the Great Basin. These are areas where BLM is reducing vegetation like grasses and trees in order to reduce the probability of a fi re spreading and growing in height. The scientists hope their research can inform the methods the agency adopts to create those fuel breaks. “We need to be imple- menting strategies that pre- serve our good condition sagebrush steppe areas and get ahead of this invasive grass and fi re feedback cycle that we’re in,” said Lisa Ells- worth, lead author of the study and a range ecologist at OSU, in a statement. Ellsworth said that sagebrush ecosystems are among the most fragile ecosystems on the North American continent. “I feel the pressure of time in these systems,” she wrote. 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