TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2021
BAKER CITY HERALD — A3
LOCAL & STATE
Forecast: Oregon won’t return to pre-spike COVID-19 levels until near year end
The data at the time
showed the numbers falling
under 100 by the time the
A recovery from the
holiday season kicked off with
record-breaking spike in
Thanksgiving at the end of
COVID-19 cases has been
November.
pushed from Halloween to
In the forecast released
Christmas, according to an
on Thursday, pre-spike
Oregon Health & Science
hospitalization levels won’t
University forecast released
be reached until the last half
Thursday, Sept. 30.
Longer hospital stays for of December. Case levels will
those with severe infections remain elevated throughout
the holiday season, with
from the delta variant and
600 hospitalizations per day
signs of public weariness
forecast on Nov. 1.
with pandemic safeguards
Rates below 50 cases per
have delayed the expected
day wouldn’t be realized until
pace of a rebound.
The premature dropping mid-March 2022.
OHSU researchers
of mask-wearing and limits
underline that each forecast
on socializing, along with
is just that — a model based
a return to tepid rates of
on data. Each week’s forecast
vaccination, could slow the
includes a graph overlaying
rebound further.
“We’re in a moment right prior forecasts.
Graven said the model
now where we’re going to see
what happens as fatigue sets was at a “tipping point”
in,” said Peter Graven, Ph.D., driven by both the resilience
of the virus and weariness
lead data scientist on the
of the population. Oregon is
OHSU forecast.
wobbling in a “fright and fa-
In mid-August, OHSU
tigue” cycle in the pandemic.
accurately predicted that a
When the delta variant
sharply rising spike in cases
from 200 hospitalizations per skyrocketed in July, many
parts of the state returned
day in early July would top
to masking and limiting
out at nearly 1,200 by early
contacts. The slow growth in
September.
immunization rates started to
But the forecast that
increase in July and August,
the numbers would drop at
roughly the same rate as they even in counties where vac-
rose proved overly optimistic. cine hesitancy or resistance
was widespread.
The earlier forecast
OHSU said that “break-
showed daily COVID-19 hos-
through” cases of infection in
pitalizations dipping below
people who had been vacci-
200 by the end of October.
nated has risen to 20% of new
cases. But the worst outcomes
have remained steady, with
stark differences for the
vaccinated and those who are
not. OHSU said unvaccinated
people accounted for 95.5% of
severe cases and over 99% of
deaths.
While hospitalizations
have taken a steep dive, it
is from the highest point in
the COVID-19 crisis. If this
forecast holds up, it will take
over a month just to get below
the peak of the 584 hospi-
talizations a day during last
winter’s surge.
The OHSU forecast
this week pointed to some
troubling areas. Estimated
mask usage dropped from
84% to 81%. Based on an
analysis of social media traf-
fi c, people are becoming more
active and getting together in
larger groups. With the colder
weather starting to take hold,
researchers worry that will
drive activity indoors, where
the virus can spread more
rapidly.
Vaccinations have also
slowed their pace of growth. A
quarter of all adult Orego-
nians — just under 1 million
people — remain unvacci-
nated more than nine months
after COVID-19 vaccines fi rst
became available.
The state is seeing a drop
in infections and hospitaliza-
tions overall. But parts of
Eastern Oregon are seeing an
BURGLARY
Grande Police Department.
The SWAT team searched
the area Thursday afternoon
and evening but didn’t fi nd
a suspect.
Ash said a Kubota all-
terrain vehicle was reported
stolen from a property in
that area on Friday morning,
Oct. 1. A resident in Baker
City found the ATV later,
abandoned in an alley.
Ash said it’s not clear
whether the theft of the ATV
is related to the burglary at
Rex’s home, but the sheriff’s
offi ce is investigating both
cases simultaneously.
By GARY A. WARNER
Oregon Capital Bureau
inside and outside his home
that items had been moved or
were missing.
Continued from A1
One of the items missing
inside the house was a gun.
He said investigators are
After Rex called police
using the truck’s vehicle iden-
to report that the gun was
tifi cation number to deter-
missing, and that he had seen
mine its registered owner.
a person, who he believed
No trucks of that make
was a man, on foot about 200
have been reported stolen
to 300 yards from his home,
in Baker County recently,
police called in the North-
Ash said.
Rex arrived at his home a east Oregon Regional SWAT
team, which has members
little after 4 p.m. on Thurs-
from the Baker County Sher-
day, Sept. 30. He noticed
iff’s Offi ce, Baker City Police
the pickup, which he didn’t
Department, Union County
recognize, parked in his
driveway, and he noticed both Sheriff’s Offi ce and La
WOLVES
The calves were attacked
in an area that’s not desig-
nated as part of the range of
Continued from A1
any pack, or that has other
Biologists estimated the known wolf activity, accord-
calf was killed early on Sept. ing to ODFW.
However, the attacks
28, and they attributed the
happened less than two
attack to the Keating wolf
miles from the approxi-
pack.
Wolves from the Keating mate range of the Fivemile
pack, and ODFW biologists
pack killed a pair of two-
believe it’s possible that
month-old calves north of
Keating Valley in late April wolves from that pack have
2021, and they killed a calf expanded their territory.
The agency has also re-
in late May in the same
ceived reports from the pub-
area.
lic about multiple wolves
The Keating pack con-
sists of eight wolves, accord- about 10 miles southeast
ing to the annual wolf report of where the calves were
attacked. It’s not clear
ODFW released in April.
whether those wolves are a
The pack had at least
new, unidentifi ed pack.
two pups in the spring of
The Ukiah pack was not
2020 that survived through
in the area where the calves
the end of that year.
were attacked, according to
Ukiah area investigation data from tracking collars
on wolves in that pack.
ODFW offi cials are
Rodger Huffman, a
trying to determine which
wolf pack is responsible for Union County rancher and
the attacks on calves in the co-chairman of the Oregon
Cattlemen’s Association wolf
Ukiah area.
committee, said both the or-
ganization and the rancher
who owned the calves, are
asking Fish and Wildlife to
kill members of the offend-
ing pack to deter further
wolf-livestock confl icts in
the area.
Under the state’s Wolf
Conservation and Manage-
ment Plan, wolves in East-
ern Oregon may be subject
to lethal control if they have
two confi rmed depredations
within nine months.
That plan authorized
ODFW workers to kill the
three wolves from the Look-
out Mountain pack on Sept.
17. ODFW employees shot
and killed two pups from
that pack on Aug. 1.
Wolves from the Lookout
Mountain pack have killed
at least six head of cattle,
and injured three others,
since mid July.
increase in infections, which
some local health authorities
have tied to outbreaks from
the Pendleton Round-Up in
mid-September.
An exception to the drop
in hospitalizations is Region
7, which includes Deschutes,
Crook, Jefferson, Grant,
Harney, Klamath, Lake and
Wheeler counties. After show-
ing a decline along with the
rest of the state, hospitaliza-
tions this week edged upward
in Region 7 while declines
continued in other regions.
Part of the region has
some of the lowest rates of
vaccination in the state. Lake
has the second lowest per-
centage of eligible adults who
have been vaccinated, 41.7%
as of Thursday, according to
Oregon Health Authority
reports.
Grant is one of the four
counties in the state where
less than half of eligible
adults have been vaccinated.
It’s currently at 47.1%. Har-
ney, at 50.3%, just crossed
the threshold this week, nine
months after vaccines fi rst
became publicly available.
After seeing two con-
secutive weeks of a decline in
cases, Grant County quadru-
pled in cases from 30 to 116
between the weeks ending
Sept. 15 and Sept. 22, the
latest data available. The case
rate per 100,000 people — a
way to measure the level of
infection between areas with
CDC/Contributed Photo
A COVID-19 particle is pictured in this image provided
by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
different population sizes —
was 1,596. The percentage
of tests that were positive
tripled from 5% to 14.6%
The highest infection rate
in the state is in Harney
County, where one out of
every four tests was positive.
Harney’s infection rates have
remained high for the past
month and the most recent
survey showed it with a state-
leading 1,675.8 cases per
100,000 people.
The statewide impact of
the Pendleton Round-Up out-
break that began last month
is still not completely known,
state offi cials said last week.
While many of the Eastern
Oregon counties have low
populations, they can be a
harbinger of new statewide
spikes because of the large
percentage of unvaccinated
residents.
That’s what happened
with the Pendleton Whisky
Music Fest outbreak in July.
The Whisky Fest, an
outdoor country music event
on July 16, attracted up to
12,000 people to Umatilla
County. The county’s vaccina-
tion rate was under 50% at
the time (it’s now 51.5%). An
outbreak of cases after the
festival swamped hospitals in
Eastern Oregon and spread
to the rest of the state.
Each rise in infections
targets the most vulnerable,
those who have neither vac-
cination or exposure.
Oregon att orney general
sues two counties over
their gun ordinances
By ANDREW SELSKY
Associated Press
SALEM — Oregon’s at-
torney general fi led lawsuits
Friday, Oct. 1 against two
counties that had adopted
ordinances that sought to
nullify new statewide gun
safety laws and declaring
themselves “Second Amend-
ment Sanctuaries.”
In her lawsuits against
Yamhill and Harney coun-
ties, Attorney General
Ellen Rosenblum asked
the circuit courts in those
jurisdictions to declare the
ordinances “invalid and
void” because they confl ict
“with paramount state law.”
“Gun safety laws exist
to help keep guns out of
dangerous hands and keep
people safe. A county com-
mission simply doesn’t get
to override state law in this
way,” Rosenblum said.
The ordinances, passed
by county commissioners in
the two counties earlier this
year, did not apply to local,
federal or state fi rearms
regulations that were in ef-
fect as of last February. But
they did encompass a bill
passed by the Legislature
and signed by the governor
on June 1 that mandates
the safe storage of guns and
bans them from the Oregon
State Capitol and Portland
International Airport.
The new law, which went
into effect on Sept. 24, also
allows public school dis-
tricts, community colleges
and universities to set their
own policy banning guns.
Yamhill County Counsel
Christian Boenisch had
warned the county commis-
sioners that their ordinance
might pre-empt state
gun laws, which state law
prohibits, the McMinnville
News-Register reported.
The two Yamhill County
commissioners who voted
for the ordinance argued at
the time that no county’s
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Second Amendment
ordinance had yet been
challenged in court.
That changed on Friday.
Rosenblum noted that
other Oregon counties have
enacted similar “illegal
ordinances” and warned
that the lawsuits fi led on
Friday are sending them
the message that further
action could be taken.
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George Plaven of the
Capital Press contributed
to this story.
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