THURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 2020
BAKER CITY HERALD — 5A
STUDY CONCLUSION BASED ON ANTIBODY TESTING OF OREGONIANS
Study suggests Oregon’s
COVID-19 count is too low
By Erin Ross
Oregon Public Broadcasting
SALEM — Oregon’s offi cial
COVID-19 case count is far
too low to be considered accu-
rate, according to a new study
that tested Oregon residents
for antibodies for the new
coronavirus. The research
was conducted by the Oregon
Health Authority and pub-
lished as a Field Note in the
Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention’s Morbidity
and Mortality Weekly Report.
Since the study period was
completed two months ago,
the report can’t say much
about how many people in
Oregon have been exposed to
COVID-19 as of today.
“Since then, we’ve accrued
a lot of cases,” said Paul
Cieslak, a scientist at OHA
and an author on the study.
“Our current estimates of cu-
mulative cases in the state of
Oregon are something closer
to 2.5%.”
The study’s relatively high
percent of people infected
helps confi rm the suspicion
that a majority of Oregon’s
COVID-19 cases are going
undetected — due in part
to testing shortages, inac-
curate tests, asymptomatic
cases and people who did not
receive medical treatment.
As of June 15, about 1% of
Oregonians had been exposed
to COVID-19. That’s 10 times
higher than the percentage of
Oregonians confi rmed to have
had COVID-19 by that date:
around 0.1%.
Although this is consistent
with several other studies
across the country which
show that only about 1 in 10
COVID-19 cases are diag-
nosed, it is seemingly at odds
with OHA’s own modeling.
OHA partners with the Insti-
tute for Disease Modeling at
the University of Washington
to create models that it uses
to plan and estimate hospi-
tal capacity. These models
consistently estimated that
FIRE
Continued from Page 1A
Seven fi re engines
were also assigned to the
Baldy fi re, along with
fi re crews from the BLM,
the Forestry Department
and volunteers from the
Ironside Rangeland Fire
Protection Association.
Crouch said the
availability of airplanes
and helicopters wasn’t
certain Wednesday
morning.
Some aircraft could
be diverted to deal with
new fi res started by
widespread lightning
Tuesday night, he said.
Although the Baldy
fi re started in an area of
grass and sagebrush, it
spread to the west into
forest, Crouch said.
The fi re is primarily
on public land but has
also burned some private
property, he said.
No homes were
threatened Wednesday
but a private outbuilding
along Alder Creek was
potentially threatened.
Baker woman
accused of
stabbing an
acquaintance
■ Mariam ‘Evee’ Collard, 20, alleged
to have stabbed Michael Tugman, 32,
while they were huffing canned air
By Chris Collins
ccollins@bakercityherald.com
Karl Maasdam / Oregon State University
TRACE team members demonstrate the testing process during the pilot phase of the
project on April 20, 2020, in Corvallis.
Oregon’s real case count was
3 to 5 times higher than the
confi rmed case count, not
10. The most recent model,
published Aug. 5, says while
19,200 COVID-19 cases were
identifi ed by July 31, the
actual cumulative case count
was estimated to be closer to
88,000.
Cieslak said despite the
study’s fi nding of inaccuracy
in Oregon’s offi cial COVID-19
case numbers, it doesn’t go
so far as to call OHA’s model
into question. All told, 897
Oregonians had their blood
tested. Nine of them had an-
tibodies for SARS-CoV-2, the
virus that causes COVID-19.
Although that’s at right about
1%, the small sample size
means the actual prevalence
could have been much lower,
or much higher. Cieslak says
once you account for chance
and variability, the model
estimates are consistent with
the potential range of case
rates found in this study.
Because the sample size
is so small, Cieslak also cau-
tions against using it to de-
termine how many people in
Oregon have COVID-19. “It’s
Ranchers also have
moved cattle out of the
potential path of the fi re,
Crouch said.
The region’s largest
blaze, the Indian Creek
fi re in Malheur County,
has also grown, to about
14,000 acres Wednesday
morning.
Some of the growth
resulted from fi re crews
conducting burnouts
— intentionally ignit-
ing fuel between the
main fi re and control
lines, which reduces the
chance of fl ames crossing
the lines, Crouch said.
Lightning from Tues-
day’s storms ignited at
least 20 new fi res across
Northeastern Oregon,
according to fi re dispatch
centers in La Grande
and John Day.
As of Wednesday
afternoon, most of the
new fi res were reported
at less than 1 acre. A fi re
reported Tuesday near
Medical Springs was
contained at 1.23 acres
at 12:55 p.m. on Wednes-
day.
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In the months since early
June, it has become clear that
SARS-CoV-2 is not evenly dis-
tributed throughout Oregon.
Outbreaks and super-
spreading events have oc-
curred in several counties. In
a survey conducted July 25-
26, Oregon State University’s
TRACE study found that
17% of Hermiston residents
may have had COVID-19
during their study period. In
Malheur County, the Oregon
Health Authority estimated
that 266 out of every 100,000
people have COVID-19, and
with 20% of tests coming
back positive, that number
could be much higher. Still,
some counties continue to
see little to no confi rmed
transmission.
Antibody tests are very
good at estimating the num-
ber of people who have been
infected with SARS-CoV-2,
the virus that causes CO-
VID-19. But in a place like
Oregon, where COVID-19
case rates are relatively low
compared to other states,
the tests aren’t very good at
telling individual people if
COVID-19
Continued from Page 1A
The Oregon Health Authority (OHA)
lists the age, gender and county of resi-
dence of people who die as a result of the
virus.
The agency’s Wednesday update does
not include the Baker County death,
which the Baker County Health Depart-
ment announced Monday afternoon.
There is often a lag between county and
state data related to the pandemic.
Holly Kerns, a public information offi cer
for Baker County, said county offi cials
would not release any additional details
about the outbreak at Meadowbrook
Place. The Herald has asked when the
fi rst positive test was confi rmed at the
facility, and whether all the cases are resi-
dents or whether some are employees.
The Herald also asked when the person
who died had become ill.
When the Baker County Health
Department announced the outbreak
at Meadowbrook on Friday, Aug. 14, the
department’s press release stated that
“none of the residents or staff are current-
ly hospitalized and no deaths have been
reported in connection with the outbreak
as of Friday (Aug. 14).”
The OHA’s weekly report, issued
Wednesday and including data through
11 p.m. on Sunday, Aug. 16, attributed 11
cases to the Meadowbrook outbreak.
The agency does not distinguish between
cases that result from a person testing
positive, and “presumptive” cases, which
involve people who have not tested positive
but have been in close contact with a person
who did test positive.
As of Wednesday, the OHA said at least
51 of Baker County’s cases involved resi-
dents who had tested positive.
The OHA’s weekly report also showed
that 50 of the county’s cases are residents
who live in the 97814 ZIP code, which
includes Baker City and parts of Baker,
Keating and Sumpter valleys.
The OHA doesn’t list the number of cases
for any of Baker County’s other ZIP codes
because all have fewer than 1,000 residents.
The Meadowbrook outbreak is the only
one reported in Baker County in a care
facility or other type of what health offi cials
call a “congregate living setting.”
These include the Baker County Jail,
Powder River Correctional Facility, and
drug and alcohol treatment centers oper-
ated by New Directions Northwest, said
Mark Bennett, a Baker County commis-
sioner and the county’s incident command-
er during the pandemic.
Bennett said the county is preparing to
hire two new nurses who will work at the
Health Department and offer assistance
if needed to the county’s other congregate
facilities as well as schools. The county
will use COVID-19 aid dollars to hire the
nurses, Bennett said.
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they’ve had the disease.
Through a quirk of sta-
tistics, depending on the ac-
curacy of the test, it’s easy to
get more false positives than
true positives, which means a
positive COVID-19 antibody
test doesn’t necessarily mean
you have antibodies for the
virus.
Researchers can account
for this mathematically, and
use the rate of potential false
positives and false nega-
tives to estimate the general
prevalence of the disease. Be-
cause research on COVID-19
immunity is still ongoing, it’s
too soon to say if the people
who have COVID-19 antibod-
ies can get infected again.
Although the data is
somewhat out of date and
has a relatively small sample
size, Cieslak says the results
are important: They show
that antibody tests can give
a much better picture of the
spread of COVID-19 than
you get by simply counting
all the cases. OHA hopes to
continue to do further anti-
body surveys like this one,
hopefully with more partici-
pants and stronger results.
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Police say an incident that started with two people
huffi ng canned air to get high at Geiser-Pollman Park
Monday afternoon ended with an argument that led
to one attacking the other with a knife.
Mariam “Evee” Collard, 20, of Baker
City, is being held at the Baker County
Jail for the stabbing of Michael Scott
Tugman, 32, of Baker City. Tugman was
taken to the hospital Monday with inju-
ries that weren’t life-threatening, District
Collard
Attorney Greg Baxter stated in a press
release issued Monday night.
The Baker County Major Crime Team was acti-
vated to investigate the incident.
Tugman sustained a slash wound to his left cheek
and stabbing wounds on his left triceps outer arm
area and left upper rib cage, Baker City Police detec-
tive Shannon Regan stated in a court document.
Collard and Tugman were acquaintances and the
general public was not believed to have been in dan-
ger during the incident, Baxter stated.
Collard was arraigned Tuesday in Baker County
Circuit Court on one count of second-degree assault, a
Class B felony which on conviction carries a manda-
tory minimum sentence of 70 months in prison.
Collard also was arraigned on a second-degree
disorderly conduct charge, a Class B misdemeanor, for
allegedly “engaging in violent, tumultuous or threat-
ening behavior,” court documents state.
Regan said Geiser-Pollman Park “was fi lled with
multiple adults and children” at the time of the stab-
bing.
During Tuesday’s arraignment, Judge Matt Shirt-
cliff ordered Collard held on $50,000 bail with release
possible after posting 10%, or $5,000. Bob Moon, a
Baker City attorney, was appointed to represent her.
Regan stated in the court document that the trouble
between Collard and Tugman started about 3:18 p.m.
Monday when Collard began recording Tugman while
he was under the infl uence of the canned air product
the two had been inhaling in the park. Tugman be-
came upset and told Collard to stop the recording.
He then approached her and the two wrestled over
Collard’s phone, which she was using to make the
video, according to Regan. Collard next grabbed her
fi xed-blade throwing knife, which measured 5 to 7
inches long, and stabbed Tugman three times, Regan
stated.
Collard fl ed the park and threw the knife behind
the Dollar Tree where it was recovered by police,
Regan said. Offi cers then arrested Collard and trans-
ported her to the jail.
Baxter said Wednesday that the case will next go
before a grand jury for consideration of any additional
charges.
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In a written response to the Herald’s
questions about the differences between
the Meadowbrook outbreak and the
county’s earlier cases, many of which
health offi cials weren’t able to trace to a
specifi c origin, Nancy Staten, the Health
Department’s administrator, and Mandy
Peterson, who also works at the agency,
noted that contact tracing typically is
easier in a congregate care setting be-
cause residents tend to have close contact
with fewer people.
“Sporadic cases in the community
are more problematic because there are
many sources from where the infection
can spread vs when it is in one family/
friend group,” Staten and Peterson wrote.
“It is also a concern when we don’t know
where the infection comes from. When we
can identify the source we can ask con-
tacts to quarantine and stop the spread.
If we don’t know where the illness is com-
ing from we cannot contact trace and stop
the spread.”
They also noted, however, that out-
breaks in congregate care facilities can
be more dangerous than sporadic cases
because residents often are at higher
risk of becoming seriously ill if they are
infected.
According to OHA’s Wednesday report,
of the 408 Oregonians listed as CO-
VID-19 deaths, almost 49% were 80 or
older, almost 75% were 70 or older, and
91% were 60 or older.
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