Polk County News
Polk County Itemizer-Observer • August 2, 2017 5A
PSU releases Polk County population forecasts
Cities use data to plan for long-range planning in Urban Growth Boundaries
By Jolene Guzman
The Itemizer-Observer
POLK COUNTY — The
Population Research Center
at Portland State University
estimates that Polk County
will grow at a yearly average of
about 1.5 percent until 2035.
PSU released its popula-
tion forecast on June 30, in-
cluding estimates for coun-
tywide population and with-
in cities’ urban growth
boundaries. Urban growth
boundaries include areas
surrounding cities, but not
yet within the city limits.
After evaluating those
numbers, leaders in Dallas,
Monmouth and Independ-
ence believe the forecasts
are mostly accurate.
The forecast estimates
population growth through
2035, and then from 2035 to
2067, and are used for plan-
ning purposes for cities.
“It allows us to do our
longer-range planning. That
is why they are so impor-
tant,” said Jason Locke, Dal-
las’ community develop-
ment director. “It was a
good process and now we
have these numbers and we
can start moving forward
with them over the next two
years.”
Locke said initial forecasts
sent by PSU seemed too
conservative. PSU has aver-
age growth from 2017 to
2035 at 1.6 percent per year.
Locke said Dallas made the
case for faster growth during
that period based on build-
ing trends in recent years.
“We have subdivisions
being built and so forth,” he
said. “We provided them
with enough evidence to
raise that to 1.8 percent.”
Dallas’ UGB population
sits at 16,414 now. Forecasts
have the 2035 population at
22, 665 with a growth rate of
1.8 percent between 2017
and 2035. In 2067, the fore-
cast is 33,208 with 1.2 per-
cent growth between 2035
and 2067.
Falls City’s UGB popula-
tion within its urban growth
boundary is at 1,003 now
and forecasted to be 1,119 in
2035 and 1,285 in 2067. The
average growth rates for the
Falls City UGB are 0.6 per-
cent (2017-2035) and 0.4
percent (2035-2067).
For Independence UGB,
the current figure is 9,326.
Its population forecasts are
13,803 in 2035, and 21,741 in
2067. Growth rates are 2.2
percent (2017-2035) and 1.4
percent (2035-2067).
In Monmouth UGB, the
population is 9,994 now and
is projected to be 12,943 in
2035 with a 1.5 percent
growth rate between now
and 2035, and 17,708 in
2067, with a 1 percent
growth rate between 2035
and 2067.
Total for the county is
81,089 now, 105,217 in 2035,
and 149,203 by 2067. Aver-
age growth rates are 1.5 per-
cent (2017-2035) and 1.1
(2035-2067).
PSU will update its fore-
casts every three years.
Locke said the slow down
after 2035 accounts for pre-
dicted slowing in-migration
from other states and a
lower birth rate. He said he’s
confident in the final report
numbers, as did Independ-
ence City Manager David
Clyne and Monmouth City
Manager Scott McClure.
“Overall if you look at
methodology, look at the
numbers that they used, we
are pretty comfortable with
that,” Locke said.
Locke added the long-
term forecasts are different
from the annual population
estimates PSU puts out each
year. Those estimates don’t
add in population in the
urban growth boundary and
use different data, such as
building and demolition
permits issued by the cities.
In 2016, city population
estimates (within city limits)
are: Dallas — 15,345; Falls
City — 950; Independ-
ence — 9,250; and Mon-
mouth — 9,745.
Polk County unemployment rate sits at about 3.8 percent
Itemizer-Observer staff report
SALEM — In June, Oregon's
nonfarm payroll employment
grew by 8,500 jobs, following a
gain of 2,600 in May, according
to a press release from the Ore-
gon Employment Department.
The June increase was the
largest gain since February
2016, when 9,600 jobs were
added. Gains were widespread
among the major industries,
with 11 of the 14 industries
adding jobs.
The economy in Polk and
Marion counties is following
the same track, said A.J. Fos-
coli, Dallas’ economic develop-
ment director, in a recent re-
port to the Dallas City Council.
He said Polk County’s unem-
ployment rate is at about 3.8
percent.
“Remember that 5 percent is
what economists consider full
employment,” Foscoli said. “We
are well below what economists
feel comfortable with as far as
maintaining a full workforce.
Foscoli added that business-
es are to the point that they
are hiring or considering hiring
people who may not be the
best suited.
“It means that businesses
are keeping employees,” he
said. “I’ve heard that business-
es are rehiring employees that
maybe they let go.”
The state’s leisure and hospi-
tality industry added the most,
increasing by 2,100 jobs. In ad-
dition, strong hiring occurred in
construction (+1,600 jobs) and
manufacturing (+1,400). Finan-
cial activities was the only
major industry to cut substan-
tially, as it shed 800 jobs.
Over the past 12 months,
Oregon’s payroll employment
rose 47,300, or 2.6 percent. This
rapid pace was an acceleration
from earlier in the year when
over-the-year growth was hov-
ering around 2.0 percent.
Oregon’s unemployment
rate was little changed at 3.7
percent in June. The rate re-
mained near its all-time low of
3.6 percent reached in May.
Oregon's rate was significantly
below its year-ago rate of 5.1
percent in June 2016 and well
below the U.S. unemployment
rate of 4.4 percent in June 2017.
Other signs of a tight labor
market in Oregon include
fewer long-term unemployed
and falling measures of labor
underutilization.
The number of Oregonians
who have been unemployed
for more than six months
dropped to 10,700 in June, the
lowest on record dating back
to 2002. In contrast, the long
term unemployed reached a
peak of more than 100,000 in
2010, during the aftermath of
the Great Recession.
Meanwhile, U-6 — the
broadest measure of labor un-
derutilization, which includes
the unemployed, those who
have stopped looking for work
within the last year but still
want a job, and those who are
working part-time but would
prefer to work full-time —
dropped to 7.4 percent in June.
Cubanisimo Vineyards
Eola Hills Wine Cellars
Legacy Vineyard
Left Coast Cellars
Whatever you do during the eclipse, make sure to
include a glass of award-winning vino from one of our local wineries.
Recently named the No. 1 spot to watch the eclipse, the vineyards
in Polk County will offer exceptional views. Those of us who live
here are already privy to those views on a regular basis.
It’s a great chance to beat the rush of people coming into our
county headed to wineries on the weekend of the eclipse — or to
take those visitors out for wine tastings.
Though many of Polk County’s wineries have sold out events on
Aug. 21, the day of the Great American Eclipse, they have more to
offer throughout that weekend and for the whole month of August.
Take time this month to stock up on your favorite vintages and try
something new.
Eola Hills has a lovely pinot noir with an eclipse souvenir label.
What better way to enjoy this historic event than with a beautiful
bottle of Oregon wine?
If you have out-of-towners coming
in for the weekend of the eclipse, Eola
Hills is sold out, but Cubanisimo and Left Coast Cellars have events
on the afternoons of Saturday and Sunday (Aug. 19 and 20) open to
the public.
Cubanisimo is hosting salsa dances, wine tasting, a commemora-
tive glass, and food during the afternoons at $40 per person from
noon until 6 p.m. A basic package to enjoy the view, music and wine
is available for $25 per person – veterans and active-duty military
are free.
Left Coast will have wine tasting and truck tours from noon until
5 p.m. Truck tours end at 4 p.m. Cost is $20 per person, or $10 for
club members.
ECLIPSE RESERVATIONS
August 19th
Basic Package $25 • Afternoon Package $40
Camping Under the Stars!
August 20th
Eclipse Reservation Party!
August 21st
$250 includes entry,
commemorative glass, wine
tasting, raffle, food ticket, private
library tasting of 6 special
vintages, hors d’ oeuvres, campsite,
breakfast, and next day’s entry.
$150 — Reservation Only
Includes your entry fee,
wine tasting, tapas plate, a
Cubanisimo wine glass and
entry into our daily door prize
raffle, coffee, and breakfast.
CUBANISIMO VINEYARDS
1754 Best Road NW, Salem, OR 97304
503-588-1763 • vino@cubanisimovineyards.com
Thank you to these sponsors. Please make it a point to visit these wineries while exploring our great region.