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SIUSLAW NEWS ❚ WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2015
Study shows Oregon population reaches 4 million
PORTLAND — Portland
State University’s Population
Research
Center
(PRC)
released the preliminary 2015
population estimates for
Oregon and its cities and
counties on Monday, Nov. 16.
According to the prelimi-
nary July 1 population esti-
mates, Oregon’s population
increased from 3,962,710 in
2014 to 4,013,845 in 2015, or
by 51,135.
This increase represents a
1.3 percent change, slightly
higher than in the previous
year, at 1.1 percent.
The increase in 2015 is
around 7,500 higher than
added in 2014, but still not
quite reaching peak pre-reces-
sion growth of 58,000 in
2006.
Population growth consists
of two factors: natural
increase (the number of births
minus the number of deaths)
and net migration (movers-in
minus movers-out).
From 2014 to 2015, net
migration accounted for
roughly 80 percent of
Oregon’s population growth.
During the past several
years, natural increase has
been contributing a shrinking
share of population increase.
Because of a declining fer-
tility rate, the number of
annual births has increased
only slightly in recent years;
and the number of annual
deaths has risen at a faster
pace due to the wave of aging
baby boomers.
The counties that experi-
enced the largest gains in
population from 2014 to 2015
have the largest populations.
As in the previous many
years,
Multnomah
and
Washington counties added
the highest number of persons
—each adding around 11,700
and 10,000 residents, respec-
tively.
Clackamas,
Deschutes,
Marion, and Lane counties
each added over 3,000 to their
populations; Jackson County
added over 2,000; and
Yamhill, Linn and Benton
each added at least 1,000 to
their counts. The population
increases in these ten counties
contributed to 88 percent of
the statewide population
growth this year.
Almost half of Oregon’s
thirty-six counties experi-
enced increases ranging over
100 to under 835 persons.
Nine counties saw little popu-
lation change in the past year
(less than a 100 person
change).
Generally, net in-migration
has either boosted population
growth around the state or has
prevented population losses.
In counties where a natural
decrease is occurring (over a
third of the counties experi-
ence a natural decrease,
meaning there are more
deaths than births), net in-
migration has offset overall
population decreases.
Net in-migration this past
year is estimated to have
accelerated in most counties
statewide from last year.
In terms of growth rates, or
percent change, nine counties
saw increases at least at the
same as the state or higher.
Deschutes County experi-
enced the largest percentage
gain (2.6 percent) followed
by Hood River, Washington,
and Multnomah counties (2.2
percent, 1.8 percent, and 1.5
percent, respectively).
Thirty-four of Oregon’s
242 cities experienced popu-
lation growth in the past year
at rates higher than the state.
For smaller cities, sharp
spikes in the growth rate
could mean the increase of
just a few persons, however.
Oregon’s
incorporated
cities have gained over
32,000 people from 2014 to
2015, with a combined 2015
total population of 2,776,860.
Incorporated cities collective-
ly capture about 70 percent of
the state’s population, about
the same as in the last few
years.
Preliminary estimates also
show that cities accounted
almost two-thirds of Oregon’s
population increase, roughly
the same as in 2014.
The preliminary estimates
at least show small population
increases in about half of
Oregon’s 242 incorporated
cities from July 1, 2014 to
June 30, 2015, with 35 cities
adding more than 100 per-
sons.
Portland shows the greatest
increase with almost 12,000
additional persons than in
2014.
The cities of Eugene,
Hillsboro, Salem, Grants Pass
and Bend each added over
1,000 persons in the past year.
The population increase of
over 1,400 in Grants Pass was
largely attributed to large
annexation of over 1,300 per-
sons during the year.
Twenty-eight other cities
and towns are estimated to
have a population change of
between 100 and 900 during
the period, led by Wilsonville.
Sharp population increases
in some of the smaller cities
are usually due to the con-
struction of apartments, or the
arrival of workers and con-
tractors for industrial projects
such as energy or power, or
for agricultural related jobs.
Eleven cities, scattered
throughout Oregon are esti-
mated to have between 5 and
110 fewer persons in 2015
than in 2014.
Most losses are attributed
to a decrease in the group
quarters population (persons
living in group living situa-
tions such as jails, college
dormitories, and nursing
homes), the removal of
mobile homes, or the demoli-
tion of housing units.
Fifty-eight cities reported
to PRC that they had no
change in population during
the one year period.
Note that the decrease in
Tualatin’s population is due to
a correction rather than an
actual population loss.
PRC produces annual popu-
lation estimates for Oregon,
and its counties and incorpo-
rated cities using the most
recent available data.
These estimates are based
on changes in the number of
housing units, persons resid-
ing in group quarter facilities,
births and deaths, students
enrolled in public school, per-
sons employed, Medicare
enrollees, state and Federal
tax exemptions, Oregon driv-
er license holders and other
administrative data.
Statewide housing and
group quarters’ population
data are collected from annual
questionnaires sent directly to
Oregon’s cities and counties.
If the surveyors do not
receive updated annual data
from a city, its population
estimate remains the same as
in the previous year.
The annual population esti-
mates are used for revenue
distribution to local govern-
ments and in program admin-
istration.
The preliminary population
estimates are subject to revi-
sion during a month review
period.
The final July 1, 2015, pop-
ulation estimates will be certi-
fied by Dec. 15, 2015.
The annual population esti-
mates are revised quarterly to
account for annexations
throughout the year.
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