1 4
5
f J VIEWS ON BUSINESS
ty Business Men of Country
Vary in Views on Recession
(Editors Note: Biulntu men hold varylnl view of the biulnr- recession. rana
Ini trom optimism to pessimism. Between the extremes tre a large number be.
ltevini an upturn will beiln next aprlnf. These views, and those ol economists and
others studylm the scene, are described In the lollowlnl article by Sam Dawson,
Associated Press business news columnist.)
By SAM DAWSON
New York UP) How do businessmen themselves assess the
present slump? How do their guesses on its probable length and
depth stack up with those of economists and others publicly
rhnreed with telline us where we're heading?
Guesses range all the way from saying we'll hit bottom before
the end 01 tnis year 10 torecasis
that we won t until the end of
statistical bureau says the low
point will come late this year
or early in 1950, and thinks it
will take each Industry an aver
age of nine months to recover
half the ground it lost.
Guesses as to unemployment
range to 514 million by Sep
tember. It's over 3 million
now.
How about wages and sal
aries? The chairman of Con
solidated Groceries says they'll
probably stay where they are,
and that other ways to cut costs
must be found. The president
of General Electric agrees that
every effort should be made to
Sheriff Young
Issues Warning
Sheriff Denver Young has is
sued a warning to merchants or
anyone cashing checks to exer
cise unusual care as a wave of
bogus checks is on, he says and
law enforcement officers are be
ing hard put in meeting the sit
uation. The sheriff said a social se
curity card furnishes no ade
quate identification of a check
Dasser. Where there is doubt he
suggests the bank or maker of
the check be contacted.
Transient workers now are
flooding stores and service sta
tions with checks and they buy
some food or other articles and
receive substantial sums In
change which may cause heavy
losses to the business men in
case of bogus paper. Law offi
cers will be assisted materially
by the merchants exercising due
care in securing identfication
before passing out the money
and goods.
Trade Agreement
Measure
Expired
Washington, July 1 W The
Reciprocal Trade Agreements
Act died last night at least for
a while because congress failed
to get around to renewing it.
This act Is a cornerstone in
our foreign policy. It was first
passed in 1934 under the guid
ance of President Roosevelt and
Secretary of State Hull to build
up better trade with other coun
tries.
It has been renewed repeated
ly since then by congress, the
last time in 1948 when it was
made clear the act would die
June 30, 1949 unless congress
acted to continue it.
Months ago President Truman
told congress the deadline was
approaching and the act should
be renewed. The house approv-
" ed it. But the senate has daw
dled. Maybe in a month or so the
senate will finally do something
about It. In the end, congress
Is expected to continue the act
for at least another year, maybe
another three years.
Montgomery Ward
Reduces Prices
Chicago, July 1 OP) The fall
and winter catalogue issued by
Montgomery Ward and Compa-
nv. nfftplnls sriiH veetnplDv fen-
tains the most extensive price
reductions since 1938.
Officials of the mail order
house said reductions, as com
pared with last fall's catalogue,
included women's and misses
coats and dresses down 4 to 39
per cent; furniture 10 to 15 per
cent; radios 10 to 20 per cent;
auto batteries 15 to 25 per cent,
and men's working clothing 3
to 20 per cent.
Also marked down were sev
eral building material items.
These include oak flooring,
down 29 per cent; kitchen cabi
nets, 21 per cent; shingles, 12
per cent, and paint, 15 per cent.
1950, but average off some
where about the time of the
first robin next February
March. But let's not forget those
who still hold that inflation can
become a threat again soon.
Here are the current opinions
of a number of leaders in indus
trial and public life. You'll
note that what they do has much
to do with what they forsee.
One of the most pessimistic
is the head of a construction ma
terials company. He says we
have about 18 months more of
recession in store. He reflects,
perhaps, the belief that' the
building industry will be one of
the last to be hit by the piece
meal slump, and the last to re
cover.
On the other hand, president
of the National Machine Tool
Builders association thinks the
worst is over, saying that the
first half year orders in his in
dustry already are averaging
higher than in the last quarter
of 1948.
Predictions in the steel indus
try have mostly set early 1950
for the turning point from their
decline, now gathering speed.
In the auto industry, unhurt
as yet, we have the prediction
of the president of General Mo
tors that the next "60 to 90 days
will be very interesting in the
history of our country." Others
say the auto industry will be
the last to feel the recession, and
that it will hurt them least and
for the shortest time.
Opinions of retailers, purchas
ing agents, and middlemen gen
erally reflect their belief that
prices haven't come down far
enough yet.
The slump is only half over
and more realistic price ad
justments" are due, says the
chairman of the business survey
committee of the Natfonal As
sociation of Purchasing Agents
That would give the slump about
nine more months to run.
But the general credit man:
ager of the Commercial Credit
Co. of Baltimore says prices
won t reach bottom within the
next year. And an economist
for Macy's New York depart
ment store, says it "may be six
to 12 months before we attain
a right degree of price balance
along a broad economic front
A Harvard business school
professor of marketing esti
mates we are from one-third to
one-half way down the busi
ness slope. The international
HS7ol?IF
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1405 Broadway Ph. 3-5606
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223 No. High Ph.3-8095
keep them where they are, but
he also says they mustn't go any
higher right now.
Silverton Among members
of the First Christian church
attending the week's session at
Turner residing in cottages on
the camp grounds are Rev.
Arthur Charles Bates, Mrs.
Bates, Mrs. Lydia Dawes and
Mrs. Carole Rold. Each day
driving to Turner for the serv
ices have been several car loads
of other members for special
day and evening programs of the
Oregon State conference of
Christian churches.
Millmen Offer
New Schedule
Mill workers at four Salem
plants that have been idle for
68 days will immediately return
to work following a vote by the
union Thursday night to accept
a compromise offer from the
operators.
The millmen had demanded
an increase of 17 M cents. The
operators offered H4 cents. The
compromise offer is an increase
ranging from 5 to 12 cents.
F. D. Van Sweringen, execu
tive secretary of the Building
Trades council, said the new top
bracket wage is $1.90 an hour.
Workers in the second bracket
were raised 7te cents to $1.67 M,
and the lowest bracket got a
S-cent raise to $1.50.
Four Salem plants were in
volved. They were Keith Brown
Building Supply, Oregon Pulp
& Paper, Reinholdt & Lewis,
and Salem Willamette. The
Brown and the OP&P were
picketed.
The vnlr hy the Salfm lorn
to accept the offer was 104 to
( Capital Journal, Salem, Oregon, Friday, July 1, 19499
Two Salem Firms
Submit Low Bids
Portland, July 1 WP) Bidders
on three of four jobs made of
fers under government cost esti
mates, Col. O. E. Walsh of the
corps of engineers reported.
Neuman & Co. Salem, with a
$49.860 offer for repairing and
11. It had previously been ac
cepted by the Portland local by
a vote of about 2 to 1.
raising apartment buildings at
Bonneville was farthest under
the estimate. The engineers had
list $71,904 as probable cost.
Another Salem firm, Gordon
and Co., bid $4640 for fireproof
ing and installing an alarm sys
tem in a dormitory in the Meri
dian dam housing area at Low
ell. The estimate was $5,200.
G. E. Dennis & Son, Portland,
bid $9,497 for revetment repair
at Budds Chute on the Willa
mette river four miles northeast
of Indepenaence. The estimate
was $11,527.
...Truly, a Beverage
"of the first Water"...
"Of the first water" is an
expression originated by
the ancient Arab diamond
traders to describe a diamond
of flawless purity and per-
fection "approaching that of the clearest drop
of water."
It takes rare, fine, pure water, coupled with
premium grains and hops and the patience and
skill of the master brewer, to make an excellent
beer. When Leopold Schmidt, master brewer,
discovered the sparkling waters from a subter
ranean well at Tumwater, Washington, over 54
years ago, he knew he had found a treasure of
great rarity. Here was one of the few spots in the
worid where such water could be found for pro
ducing the finest of beers. Three generations of tht
same family of master brewers have continued to
practice their brewing skill at this spot, and the fame
of their product has spread far and wide.
The Olympia Beer you buy today is the result of
this skill and... ''It's the water." This wonderful
Artesian water will always be the measure of differ
ence in taste that has made Olympia so popular as
"America's Original Light Table Beer."
v BEER
"It's the Water
Visitors always welcome at
"one of America's exceptional breweries"
OLYMPIA BRIWIMO COMPANY
' O I V M I A. W $ M H O I O N, U. !. A.