22 Capital Journal, Salem, Oregon, Tuesday, June '28, 1949
THERE'LL BE MOANS
Things Will Probably Get
Worse Before They're Better
(Editor's Note: Some Industries have been hit harder than other In the "piece
meal" recession we are undersolm. For the country as a. whole, thins, probably
will let worse before they set oetler. The situation Is surveyed by Sam Dawson,
Associated Press business news columnist, In the following article.
By SAM DAWSON
New York VP) The slump is expected to get a good deal more
painful shortly. Some big key industries, like steel and autos,
have yet to feel it. And when they really cut back, it'll raise hob
with all business in the industrial midwest and east.
The wailing and moaning you've heard to date will just be a
whisper to what you'll hear be-v
fore this year's over.
At the same time, a number of
other industries have brighter
prospects for the second half of
this year. And still others expect
that any further slump this fall
will be a mild affair for them,
only a little worse than now.
Let's look at some of these
prospects, starting at the indigo
bottom of the industrial rain
bow and working up toward the
rosy top.
Gloomiest outlooks just now
are for steel, other metnls, coal
and as a result, for the rail
roads. Steel hit its peak in a booming
first quarter, is now sliding
downhill fast, expects to hit bot
tom the first of next year and
start back up in the spring quar
ter. It hasn't trimmed prices
much yet.
Non-ferrous metals cut prices
drastically after demand died in
March. A number of mines have
closed, others have cut back
the work week. Many feel the
worst will be over by August or
September but doubt if their
pulse will be really strong again
before next spring.
Coal mine over - production
piled large supplies on the
ground. Cold weather will help,
but whether costs and prices can
be brought down to help coal in
its competitive fight with fuel
oil and natural sas depends a
lot on what comes out of the
talks with John L. Lewis.
Railroad carloadings average
lower this year. They are pretty
well reconciled to having traf
fic fall off still more the last
half, but they pray for freight
rate hikes to offset it.
Industries farther along the
readjustment trail but still hav
ing their troubles are furniture,
clothing, shoes, textiles, retail
trade and the airlines.
Furniture output is running
about 20 per cent behind last
year, but it was a lot worse than
a few months ago. The shoe in
dustry , ran into trouble two
years ago and is beginning to
feel the first faint recovery
breeze now. Clothing sales and
production are now in pretty
good balance, but far below the
peak. Price differences still
split the clothing makers and
the retailers.
Wool mills caught the slump
head on at the beginning of the
year. Production hit a low
point in April and has made its
first hesitant upward step. They
might get going again the first
of tlie year.
Retail trade felt the slump
first, when customers balked at
prices. Department store dollar
sales are below last year, but
unit volume is holding high.
Earnings are due for a drop this
year, and if unemployment
grows, sales will drop faster
this winter. Inventories aren't
dangerously high, however.
Airlines went sour after the
war, but are in the black again.
This is their best flying weather.
Earnings may slide again next
winter, but they're pushing their
lower-priced coach service.
Industries still riding high,
but with prospects for the sec
ond half doubtful, r autof and
utilities.
Auto order backlogs may dis
appear this fall, but th industry
is still producing top speed, giv
ing at least token price cuts to
buyers and earnest pep talks to
salesmen.
Building of homes is running
behind last year and may sluff
off further next winter. Indus
trial building is also easing off.
But public and institutional
building is increasing and tak
ing up the slack.
Riding along on the cushions
of the government supports are
the farmers. Right optimistic
are the grocers. And perhaps
the cheeriest of them all are the
airplane builders.
Thirty-two of Tennessee's 44
governors have been lawyers.
Four were soldiers, three mer
chants, two farmers, two editors
and one a tailor. The tailor, An
drew Johnson, later became
president.
State-Wide Housing
Survey Planned
Portland, June 28 VP) An at
tempt will be made soon to get
a more accurate survey of un
employment in Oregon.
The Portland labor-manage
merit committee will sponsor it,
hiring an independent research
firm to do the work, upstate and
in Portland.
Lee C. Stoll, committee chair
man, said such unemployment
statistics as provided by unem
ployment compensation claims
are too sketchy.
He said the committee plan
ned to get many other factors
migration, welfare rolls, man
agement layoffs, labor union re
ports and others to get a com
plete picture. The reports will
be issued quarterly, he said.
The Rural Electrification Ad
ministration reports that almost
51 per cent of Tennessee farms
now have electric power.
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