OPINION
Wallowa.com
Wednesday, April 28, 2021
A5
Tracking COVID-19 cases and deaths
OTHER VIEWS
Kevin Frazier
Younger, urban
Oregonians
believe they
can make a
bigger impact
A
large percentage (43%) of Orego-
nians do not believe they can make
their community a better place to
live, according to a recent Oregon Values
and Beliefs Center survey.
That figure becomes a majority among
Oregonians ages 65 and over; just 62% do
not believe they can have a big or moder-
ate effect on their community. That percent-
age is also a majority among rural Orego-
nians (54%).
Comparatively, urban (64%) and
younger (66%) Oregonians feel much more
capable of having a positive effect.
What explains these differences?
There’s no one answer. Instead a vari-
ety of factors have convinced some Ore-
gonians that the system is just too stacked
against them to be able to turn the gears in
their favor.
One explanatory factor: access to infor-
mation. Nearly six in 10 urban Oregonians
have a high degree of trust in the people
who publish the news about their commu-
nity, whereas just four in 10 rural Orego-
nians share that view. There’s also a 10 per-
centage point gap in how much Oregonians
in the tri-county area trust broadcast news
when compared to Oregonians in the rest of
the state (57% versus 47%).
The connection between faith in local
news and faith in capacity to incite change
makes sense. If you feel confident that you
know what’s going on in your neck of the
woods, then you likely feel capable of get-
ting involved or at least staying informed
about major changes in your community.
Another factor impacting the impact gap
— personal security. Oregonians 65 and
older seem to feel more in control over their
personal well-being. A full 85% of these
older Oregonians reported they feel able to
control what is important in their lives on
a majority of days. That number plummets
to 65% for Oregonians between 18 and 29
years old. Perhaps insecurity about their
own lives spurs younger Oregonians to feel
as though it’s only through communitywide
changes that they can improve their own
well-being.
One final factor and more evidence for
the thesis: disparities in how much peo-
ple feel as though community leaders care
about their needs. Almost 60% of younger
Oregonians agree that “(t)he people run-
ning my community don’t really care much
about what happens to me.” On the oppo-
site side of the spectrum, only 44% of older
Oregonians doubt the responsiveness of
their community leaders.
Why these gaps matter
Our democracy hinges on its perceived
legitimacy. If people don’t feel as though
the levers of change are responsive to their
efforts to make their community better, then
faith and participation in our democracy
understandably decreases. Consider that
around half of Oregonians in the tri-county
area are somewhat or very satisfied with the
way our democracy works, but only 39% of
Oregonians in the rest of the state share that
level of satisfaction.
The aforementioned factors suggest that
we’ve got a lot of work to do when it comes
to giving Oregonians the information and
leaders they deserve.
What are some ways to chip away at this
impact gap?
First, address news deserts. Oregonians
in every community deserve news that’s
well-funded and well-resourced so that they
can keep local officials accountable and
share opportunities about how and when to
get involved.
Second, make our elected officials more
accountable to voters, not special interests.
One way this is happening is through cam-
paign finance reform. This will help give
all Oregonians a chance to impact an elec-
tion, while also reducing the extreme sway
wealthy individuals and organizations hold
over candidates.
Third, we can end the idea of Oregon
exceptionalism when it comes to good gov-
ernance. This may sound harsh, but Oregon
is not living up to its own standards when
it comes to being a leader in democracy.
Across the urban/rural divide and age spec-
trum, only one out of every four Orego-
nians think the state’s democracy has got-
ten stronger in the past four years. That’s
abysmal.
To improve our democracy here in Ore-
gon, we have to be more open about the fact
that it’s flawed and more intentional about
instituting meaningful reforms.
———
Kevin Frazier was raised in Washington
County. He is pursuing a law degree at the
University of California, Berkeley School of
Law.
OTHER VIEWS
Fred Brockman
ewsflash! Due to a worldwide kill-
off of coffee plants and demand
from the public for a replacement,
a synthetic coffee is now on the market.
Although studies to date have concluded
the synthetic coffee is safe, the public is
encouraged to report adverse reactions. A
multidisciplinary team of experts will deter-
mine if reported adverse reactions involve
causation, or were merely associations.
The newsflash is fiction. But it serves
as an analogy for understanding the Vac-
cine Adverse Event Reporting System (cdc.
gov/vaccinesafety/pdf/vaers_factsheet1.
pdf) where 3,486 deaths among people
who received a COVID vaccine have been
reported (cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/
vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html, April
20 update).
VAERS is an important safety moni-
toring program established in 1990 and
managed by the Centers for Disease Con-
trol and Prevention and the Food and Drug
Administration. Safety monitoring occurs
after a vaccine goes through clinical tri-
als for effectiveness and an extensive ben-
efit-risk analysis, and obtains either a FDA
traditional approval or Emergency Use
Authorization (fda.gov/vaccines-blood-bi-
ologics/vaccines/emergency-use-autho-
rization-vaccines-explained). VAERS is
designed to gather information from the
public and medical professionals on events
associated with use of a vaccine, allow-
ing the agencies to investigate reports
and determine if a safety intervention is
warranted.
The CDC cautions readers (cdc.gov/
coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/
adverse-events.html, April 20 update)
against concluding that reports of adverse
events associated with use of a COVID
vaccine is necessarily caused by the vac-
cine. They explicitly warn readers:
“Reports of death to VAERS following vac-
cination do not necessarily mean the vac-
cine caused the death.” They also state:
“physicians review each case report of
death as soon as notified and the CDC
requests medical records to further assess
reports.” This process allows doctors to
determine whether each death was a result
of the vaccine, or due to something else.
In the second sentence after “3,486
reports of death” among people who
received a COVID vaccine, the CDC states
in bold type: “A review of available clini-
cal information including death certificates,
autopsy, and medical records revealed no
evidence that vaccination contributed to
patient deaths.”
The key to understanding the VAERS
reporting is the difference between asso-
ciation and causation, a foundational prin-
ciple of statistics and science. An associa-
tion refers only to a co-occurrence between
two variables or events. Two events can be
N
associated without having a cause-effect
relationship. For example, as sales of ice
cream increase so do sales of sunglasses.
But ice cream sales don’t cause people to
buy sunglasses or vice versa; hot weather
is the cause. Causation, also known as a
cause-effect relationship, requires scien-
tific evidence that one variable or event is
wholly or partially responsible for the other.
Numerous questions must be addressed
to establish a cause-effect relationship
between a vaccine and a serious adverse
event. In addition to the review of each case
report, experts evaluate VAERS data with
a battery of epidemiological and statistical
tests to determine if a cause-effect relation-
ship exists.
For example, one question and test is
whether a particular serious adverse event
in the vaccinated population is statistically
higher than in the corresponding non-vac-
cinated population; if not, then causation is
refuted. If causation is refuted in nearly all
questions, the vaccine is not responsible for
the serious adverse event even though an
association existed.
Can the CDC and FDA reach a different
conclusion about COVID vaccines in the
future? Yes, they can and will if a cause-ef-
fect relationship is established. When pre-
liminary analysis suggests a possible
cause-effect relationship, a pause on use
of a vaccine can be implemented prior to a
conclusion being reached.
Different people perceive risk dif-
ferently, but quantifying the risks pro-
vides important perspective. Assume
for a moment there were 10 U.S. deaths
caused by COVID vaccines. As of April
24, 225 million doses have been adminis-
tered in the U.S., fully vaccinating 93 mil-
lion people (CDC data at npr.org/sections/
health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-
is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-go-
ing-in-your-state). Thus, the fatality rate for
fully vaccinated people would be 0.011 per
100,000.
Oregon’s COVID fatality rates per
100,000 people in the 30-39, 50-59 and
70-79 age groups are, respectively, 3.4,
30 and 174 (page 19 in oregon.gov/
oha/covid19/Documents/DataReports/
Weekly-Data-COVID-19-Report.pdf
April 21 report, censusreporter.org/pro-
files/04000US41-oregon/). While Wallowa
County’s COVID case rate is about half
that of Oregon’s, the county’s COVID fatal-
ity rate (71 per 100,000) is similar to Ore-
gon’s (59 per 100,000) (public.tableau.com/
profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
vizhome/OregonCOVID-19Testingand-
OutcomesbyCounty-SummaryTable/
CasesandTestingbyCountySummary-
Table, census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/
wallowacountyoregon/PST045219).
The comparison reveals an Orego-
nian’s and Wallowa County resident’s risk
of death from COVID would be approxi-
mately 315, 2,770, and 16,200 times higher
– respectively for the average individual in
the 30-39, 50-59 and 70-79 age groups —
than the risk of death caused by COVID
vaccines. And remember these values are
based on a hypothetical — not actual — 10
deaths caused by COVID vaccines.
The occurrence rate for anaphylaxis is
similar: approximately 2-5 people per mil-
lion vaccinated in the U.S., equivalent to
0.2 to 0.5 per 100,000 (cdc.gov/corona-
virus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-
events.html, April 20 update).
Moral and religious beliefs about vac-
cines are important to many people. After
reading up on the topic to include author-
itative medical sources (for example,
nebraskamed.com/COVID/you-asked-we-
answered-do-the-covid-19-vaccines-con-
tain-aborted-fetal-cells) consider having
a personal conversation with your faith
leader.
Risk is a fact of life. Mathematical anal-
ysis of data can help us make decisions to
better manage risk and reduce the chance of
harm to ourselves and others. Current data
show the risk of death or serious illness
from contracting COVID-19 is far greater
than the risk of death or serious illness from
vaccination.
As always, your local doctor or pro-
fessional health care provider is avail-
able to discuss your and your family’s spe-
cific COVID risk factors and answer other
COVID-related medical questions.
———
Fred Brockman lives near Lostine and
is a retired microbiologist.
Thank teachers for their dedication, sacrifice
OTHER VIEWS
Ann Bloom
he first week of May (May 2-8) is
National Teacher Appreciation Week.
Next to being a parent, teaching is the
hardest job a person will ever love.
Teachers spend long hours grading
papers, preparing lessons and setting up
their classrooms so their students can have
the best learning environment and educa-
tional experience possible. This is time spent
away from their families. They spend their
own money on supplies because school bud-
gets, cut to the bone, cannot afford to pay for
the “extras” that make learning fun, both for
the student and the teacher. In most, if not
all, cases they are not reimbursed for these
purchases.
Not everyone can be a teacher. It takes
five years of education, in most places, to
start as a first-year teacher and then the
teacher faces the looming prospect of years
of college-loan repayment.
Teachers are fearless. It takes a certain
caliber of person to not be overcome by
the thundering silence that follows a ques-
tion asked of a room full of seventh-graders,
who look as though they have just heard an
ancient language for the first time.
Teachers cannot be afraid of blood,
either, or other bodily fluids; scraped knees
are par for the course. They cannot be
daunted when someone small stands in front
of them and announces they feel sick, and
then proceeds to prove it on the teacher’s
shoe.
Dedication, teacher it is your middle
name. How many teachers have spent week-
ends, and late nights preparing their class-
rooms for the fall classes (raise your hands,
now)? It is a myth, too, that teachers get
three months of “vacation” in the summer.
Summers are spent taking classes to main-
T
tain their certification and credentials. Again,
this is at their own expense.
Teachers do more than teach. They help
students learn to tie their shoes, put on mit-
tens, remember homework (and, no, the dog
can’t eat it all the time), learn to read, write,
understand math and learn to get along with
others. And the list goes on and on.
A teacher must have a sense of humor.
One teacher told his first-graders, on the first
day of class, that they needed to get in a line.
This request was met with dead silence. The
first-graders all looked at each other. One of
them had the courage to raise his little hand
and ask the teacher, “What’s a line?” Well,
we all have to start someplace.
A teacher, in the absence of a parent,
is also the comforter of life’s heartbreaks
and heartaches, from the first time they
don’t get picked for a team to the last bro-
ken heart when they don’t get invited to the
dance. They are the tender of skinned knees
and other assorted “boo-boos” that go with
growing up. And, no, it isn’t just a part of
“the job.” Teaching is not a job, it is a call-
ing, a passion. If you are a teacher you know
this and understand it. If you are a teacher
and someone asks you, “Why are you a
teacher?” Do you find yourself thinking,
“Well, I could try to tell you, but you proba-
bly wouldn’t understand.”
We are so very fortunate that we have not
had to endure the heartbreak of a tragedy
such as Columbine, Sandy Hook or Marjo-
rie Stoneman Douglas High School. Places
where teachers paid the ultimate price pro-
tecting their students. Again, fearlessly and
without thought to their own safety, they
kept their students safe and out of harm’s
way.
If your child can read and write, play
well with others, does not run with scissors
and doesn’t need all the toys in the toy box,
you probably have a teacher to thank.
According to a recent National Pub-
lic Radio report, stress is the No. 1 rea-
son, even ahead of pay (which isn’t the No.
1 reason one goes into teaching in the first
place), why teachers leave their profession.
This was true even before the pandemic.
Between teaching in person (when they
can) and teaching virtually, some teachers
are working 10-hour days, six days a week.
Again, this is time they are away from their
families.
Though there should be an appreciation
week, and maybe someday there will be, for
administrative staff, principals, custodial,
para-professionals and cafeteria staff, and all
the others who keep a school running, and
they are greatly appreciated for their contri-
butions, until such time as they have their
own “week of appreciation,” we will have
to acknowledge them as a group, and thank
them for their hard work. And, yes, there
should be a parents’ appreciation week, too.
That goes without saying, of course.
I have had the pleasure and privilege of
working with the finest teachers imagin-
able. I have learned from them, laughed with
them and, yes, even cried with them. Wal-
lowa County is a very lucky place, to have
so many teachers of such a high caliber,
who go above and beyond for their students
every day. They love their jobs.
On a personal note, my best friend of
more than 50 years is a teacher. At the start
of the pandemic she was working 10-hour
days, six days a week. That is dedication.
She wasn’t doing it for any recognition or
accolades, she was doing it for her students.
I sent flowers. Thank you, Helen, for all you
do.
I have also been on the receiving end of
education by some excellent teachers. I have
one in particular, who taught me how to be
a critical thinker, how important the First
Amendment is, that a sentence is more than
a capital letter and a period and that on time
is late. Thank you, Dr. Tom Heuterman, for
everything.
So, the next time you are out in the com-
munity and you see a teacher, thank him or
her. They need to hear those words, they
need to hear them often, and they need to
hear them from us.
———
Ann Bloom lives in Enterprise and has
worked for the OSU Extension Service for
15 years as a nutrition educator. She stud-
ied journalism and education at Washington
State University.