Wallowa.com
OPINION
Wednesday, March 10, 2021
A5
When will the pandemic end?
MOUNTAIN
MEDICINE
Ron Polk
“T
here’s this attitude that public
health measures are getting in the
way of opening up the country.
It’s exactly the opposite…the public health
measures are the pathway to opening the
country. That’s the point that gets lost.” —
Dr. Anthony Fauci.
A former university colleague was
known for asking challenging questions
in his classroom. The appropriate answer
often required the student to qualify their
response by saying, “It all depends,” and
then identify the conditions that make their
answer true.
“When will the pandemic end?” The
short answer is, “It all depends.” The lon-
ger answer is the subject of this column.
Person-to-person transmission of the
SARS-CoV-2 virus, and therefore the
incidence rate of COVID-19 infections,
depends on these conditions:
• The proportion of the population
adhering to behaviors that reduce transmis-
sion, including masks, physical distancing
and personal hygiene such as handwashing.
• The proportion of the popula-
tion already infected who are therefore
immune, currently 25-40%.
• The proportion of the population who
are immunized, currently 21%.
Achieving herd immunity is the goal
of vaccination. Herd immunity means the
virus has too few new people to readily
infect so the pandemic dies out. The pro-
portion of the immune population required
to achieve herd immunity is 70-85%. The
sum of current U.S. immunity (above) is
short of 70%. Rapid immunization of the
remaining vulnerable population is why we
have been waiting for our age groups to be
Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research
summoned to Cloverleaf Hall.
Scientists at Public Health Informatics,
Computational and Operations Research
(PHICOR) have modeled these complex
relationships.
Graph A illustrates that under con-
ditions at the time of the analysis (Feb.
16), including 1.7 million immunizations
per day, the rise in the proportion of the
US populations with infection plus vac-
cine induced immunity (top dotted line)
will reach 70% in July. If only vaccine-in-
duced immunity is considered (lower dot-
ted line) then 70% will not be reached until
November.
Graph B illustrates increasing immuni-
zation to 3 million per day (beginning Feb.
16), herd immunity will occur in May, two
months earlier. There are also 10,000 fewer
predicted deaths.
Additional scenarios, including the
effects of loosening social restrictions
and the impact of variants can be viewed
online (www.nytimes.com/2021/03/04/
learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-
march-10-2021.html). The strength of these
models is that it is easier to understand the
reasons why we have altered our lives for
the past year, and the goal that we all have
— to return to a semblance of normality.
There are additional issues that need
to be considered as our society tries to
achieve herd immunity:
• Vaccine hesitancy. The U.S. is cur-
rently vaccinating an average of 2 mil-
lion persons per day. Some say 3-4 mil-
lion doses per day are achievable. A Pugh
survey reported March 5 found that 30%
remain reluctant or opposed to vaccination.
This will delay achieving herd immunity.
• What’s normal? “How long to get back
to normal?” depends on how you define
normal. Dr. Fauci recently said, “If nor-
mality means exactly the way things were
before we had this happen to us, I can’t
predict that.” President Biden has said,
“we’ll be approaching normalcy by the end
of this year.”
Few scientists believe the SARS-
CoV-2 virus will be eradicated. Instead it
will likely become endemic, perhaps like
annual influenza. The unvaccinated will
continue to be vulnerable to infection.
There will be a new normal.
Is everyone on board? Although new
infections are decreasing, a return to “nor-
mal” social behavior too early is concern-
ing. Governors of Mississippi and Texas
reversed mask mandates for residents on
March 2, decisions that were widely criti-
cized by public health officials. On March
5, the federal Center for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) reported new data
confirming the importance of masking.
• Variants. Scientists are monitoring
COVID-19 “variants of concern” that have
lower sensitivity to current vaccines. Vac-
cinations will reduce variants that may
threaten us all. Updated vaccines that tar-
get variants may become part of rou-
tine vaccinations for SARS-CoV-2 in the
future.
• The bubble. This review has focused
on the U.S., but we don’t live in a bubble.
One estimate is that it could take 7 years to
achieve herd immunity for the rest of the
world.
• The bottom line. “When will things
return to normal?” It all depends…on us.
———
Ron Polk lives in Lostine. He is emeritus
professor of pharmacy (retired) and profes-
sor of internal medicine (affiliate) at Vir-
ginia Commonwealth University.
Act will protect more Oregon rivers and streams
OTHER
VOICES
U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden
O
regon is special for many rea-
sons. But two attributes are near
and dear to my heart: our state’s
unmatched natural treasures and our firm
commitment to democracy that I call the
“Oregon Way.”
With those attributes in mind, I was
proud last month, along with Sen. Jeff
Merkley, to introduce the River Democ-
racy Act.
The legislation proposes to protect our
natural treasures by adding nearly 4,700
miles of rivers and streams in Oregon to
the national Wild and Scenic Rivers sys-
tem — the largest Wild and Scenic Rivers
effort in U.S. history.
And the bill takes its name from the
fact that the proposed rivers and stream
additions came directly from more than
15,000 nominations submitted by Orego-
nians statewide.
That open public process encouraged
Oregonians to nominate rivers that are
outstanding for their recreation, fish and
wildlife habitat, or because they provide
clean drinking water. This bill represents,
for example, nominations for Tumalo
Creek from a science class at the Pacific
Crest Middle School in Bend, for Rough
and Ready Creek from river guides in
Southern Oregon, and for the Uma-
tilla River and Middle Fork John Day by
the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla
Indian Reservation.
In addition to reflecting Oregonians’
desire to protect our spectacular rivers for
generations to come, the bill would con-
tinue to rev up our state’s outdoor rec-
reation economy — which, according to
the Outdoor Recreation Industry, sup-
ports 224,000 jobs statewide and gen-
erates $15.6 billion in consumer spend-
ing. The legislation was crafted with the
input of small businesses across Oregon
who know these protections support hunt-
ing, fishing, and outdoor recreation, and
will help them as they fight to recover
from the pandemic as more and more
Oregonians find refuge and safety in the
outdoors.
And we did this the “Oregon Way.”
We solicited nominations from the people
who interact with these rivers every sin-
gle day. And we listened to concerns these
folks were having in real time by taking
a 21st century conservation approach that
considers the climate emergency, and the
sobering risks that wildfire poses to Ore-
gon families and small businesses.
In the devastating aftermath of the his-
toric infernos that ripped through Ore-
gon communities in fall 2020, I made sure
the River Democracy Act takes multiple,
necessary steps to protect homes, busi-
nesses, and our state’s special places from
wildfires.
Those steps include the requirement
that federal land management agencies
assess the risks of wildfire in Wild and
Scenic River corridors, as well as near
homes and businesses, and develop a risk
reduction plan that must be implemented
immediately.
The bill also allows federal land man-
agement agencies to enter into cooper-
ative wildfire-fighting agreements with
states and local governments and estab-
lishes a federal grant program for states
and local governments to help repair
drinking water quality, watersheds, and
infrastructure.
The River Democracy Act even spells
out that nothing in the legislation pre-
cludes the ability to fight fires in wild and
scenic corridors, including the construc-
tion of temporary roads when necessary
for public safety.
I intend this bill to protect federal pub-
lic land, and believe strongly that pri-
vate property rights must be upheld. This
includes farming and ranching, which are
vital to many local economies around the
state. The legislation takes great care to
state in plain English that “Nothing in this
Act or an amendment made by this act
affects private property rights.”
And finally, the bill includes language
that explicitly makes it clear that valid or
vested water rights will not be affected;
and the state of Oregon can still adminis-
ter water rights in accordance with state
laws and regulations.
Since becoming Oregon’s senator, I
have hosted nearly 1,000 in-person town
halls in every nook and cranny of our
state. We have temporarily moved meet-
ings online during the pandemic. But
whether online or in person, these town
halls are built on the “Oregon Way.” We
come together as Oregonians to dig into
the issues that matter. We may not agree
on everything, but at the end of the day,
we are all still committed to improving
outcomes for each other.
That’s what we do in Oregon. Working
together to find solutions that work for
everyone is as integral to our DNA as vot-
ing by mail or public beaches.
So it’s in the true spirit of the “Oregon
Way” that the proposed River Democracy
Act now opens a new round of conversa-
tion among us as Oregonians.
I very much look forward to continu-
ing that conversation to preserve and pro-
tect rivers and streams, safeguard private
property rights as well as water rights,
and strengthen wildfire protections in
river corridors across the state.
———
Ron Wyden is Oregon’s senior senator.
Pumping iron became my armor
WRITERS ON
THE RANGE
Crista Worthy
W
hen I was young, I was so pretty.
Leggy, with long, blonde hair. I
hated guys whistling at me. There
must have been something about that 115-
pound girl that looked like an easy mark, so
passive.
The summer I turned 20, I waitressed at
a small, family-owned pizza place by the
beach in San Diego, near my university.
One morning at work the owner’s son, a big
strong guy, was the only other person there.
He grabbed me, and threw me up on the
stainless-steel counter where they assembled
the pizzas.
I didn’t scream, or hit him. I yelled “No!”
and tried pushing him away, but it didn’t do
any good. Afterwards, I slid off the table,
went in the bathroom, proceeded with work,
and avoided him the rest of the day. I quit a
couple of days later and never told anyone
why. I felt embarrassed. I moved on.
The following summer, I turned 21 and
took a cocktail waitress job at an upscale
restaurant near the university, working
6 p.m. to 2 a.m. I made $100–$120 a night
in tips — good money for 1980. One eve-
ning my boss asked me to help him carry
wine glasses out of the storeroom.
Up in that little dark room, he suddenly
turned and exposed himself. I backed away
and he offered me cocaine, as if that would
change my mind. I kept backing up, right
out of the room. I was sure he would fire
me, but he didn’t. I never said anything
about it.
The San Diego Chargers’ training camp
was just up the street and the players came
in every afternoon. They were kind, fun and
always respectful.
But at night, some other customers were
not. As I took their order, some men tried to
put their hands up my skirt. I’d immediately
step back, but sometimes when I turned
around to get their drinks, they’d slap me on
the butt.
When I returned with their orders, I’d
stand across the table so they couldn’t reach
me. Sometimes they’d “accidentally” drop
my tip on the floor, so I’d have to bend over
and pick it up, and they’d laugh. Who was
I supposed to tell — my boss? This is how
things were four decades ago.
A creepy older guy always hung around
my station, where I picked up the drinks.
He was relentless. One night he must have
slipped something in my drink because I
remember waking up at his place as he stood
over me and said, “You weren’t that good
anyway.” I was so embarrassed. I don’t
remember how I got home. I left the job.
I took a job at another restaurant and
soon another man was hanging around me
every night. One night at 2 a.m., I caught
him following me home.
I quit the next day and took a job as a vet-
erinary surgical assistant: $3.35 an hour.
At age 25 I was teaching aerobics at
night and noticed that one girl looked bet-
ter than everyone else. She told me she lifted
weights and I asked her to show me. From
day one, I was strong — 25-pound dumbbell
presses! I was hooked. I read up on it and
started lifting two hours a day.
Within two months I was getting mus-
cles. I have never been harassed since. A
year later, I weighed 140 (still do) and used
60-pound dumbbells (still do). Women in
the gym wanted to know how they could
do it, too, and I helped them. I won a world
championship. Athletes respected me. I mar-
ried one of them.
I finally told a friend what happened to
me when I was in my early 20s. I finally
acknowledged what had happened after she
said: “You were raped.”
Of course, it explains why I grew mus-
cles like armor, and why I loved having con-
trol and a strong body. Even today at 61, if I
want to, I know I can back a man off just by
body language.
I don’t feel vulnerable anymore. I’m just
glad that nowadays, it’s getting easier for
women to speak up about harassment and
rape, particularly when it involves power-
ful men.
Women have learned so much since I
was young, and many are tough and brave
in ways I wish I’d been. And some men, cer-
tainly not all, are being held accountable. At
last.
———
Crista Worthy is a contributor to Writers
on the Range, writersontherange.org, a non-
profit dedicated to lively conversation about
the West. She writes about aviation, travel
and wildlife from her home in Idaho.