A8
LOCAL
Wallowa County Chieftain
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Batten down the hatches: Forecast suggests cold, snowy winter
By ELLEN MORRIS
BISHOP
For the Wallowa
County Chieftain
SALEM — Brace your-
selves for a stormy, cold
winter. A relatively mild
November may lure north-
east Oregon into compla-
cency, but in late December
and all of January, storms
will come, winds will blow,
and snow will fall.
“Last winter was sort of a
‘nothing-burger,’” said Pete
Parsons, an Oregon Depart-
ment of Agriculture mete-
orologist. “This winter is
going to come with extra
mayonnaise.”
With colder water tem-
peratures in the tropical
Pacifi c, weather is moving
into La Nina conditions,
which promise wetter and
colder winters in the Pacifi c
Northwest, Rocky Moun-
tains and the Great Plains.
Parsons is basing his fore-
cast on the analog win-
ters of 1959-60, 1970-71,
and 1995-96 when El Nino
(warm water in the tropical
Pacifi c) shifted to La Nina
(cold water in the tropical
Pacifi c).
“The fi rst year you move
out of El Nino and into a La
Nina tends to be pretty vol-
atile in the Pacifi c North-
west,” Parsons said. “It’s
cold and snowy. You tend
to get more mountain snow
than normal. … Look for a
very different winter than
we’ve had for the past two
(winters).
“We’re moving towards
a colder signal in the Pacifi c
Decadal Oscillation. That
will make it colder than it’s
been for the last seven years
or so.”
The winter of 2016-17
was a La Nina year, Parsons
noted, and we could have
similar conditions this year.
But, Parsons said, cli-
mate change has also
resulted in warmer waters in
the northern Pacifi c that add
some uncertainty to the sea-
sonal forecast, he said.
For November, Par-
sons sees mild tempera-
tures and normal precipi-
tation in Northeast Oregon
Ellen Morris Bishop/Wallowa County Chieftain, File
Cindy and Derek Bowker, who live up Hurricane Creek Road, posted this sign after late winter
snows accumulated in February 2019. This winter could be much colder with even more snow,
according to the Oregon Department of Agriculture seasonal forecast.
due to high-pressure ridges
developing over the Pacifi c
Northwest.
“In El Nino years, like
the last two winters,” Par-
sons said, “we tend to get
cold weather early in the
season. But in La Nina
years, the protective ridge
over us develops in the
fall then goes away, and so
we get cold temperatures
descending on us later in
the season. La Ninas start
out mild, but just wait until
January. That’s when we
can have some really cold
weather.”
His long-term forecast
for this winter shows that
in December, the protective
high-pressure ridge begins
to weaken, allowing the jet
stream to direct more cold
Arctic air our way.
“That’s a stormy pat-
tern, and it will drive more
storms our way.” Parsons
said. “December is likely
to be stormier than normal,
with lower snow levels than
normal.”
That means, he said,
the start of a good winter
snowpack, with near- or
above-average snowfall in
the mountains.
“It’s likely that cold-
air outbreaks will hold off
until after Christmas,” he
said. “From about that point
through January is the prime
slot for really cold weather.”
In January, with the pro-
tective high-pressure ridge
moving to the west over
the Pacifi c, Parsons expects
periods of cold and possibly
frigid weather.
“There’s cold air dumps,
really signifi cant ones, that
are almost certainly going to
occur,” he said. “The ques-
tion is whether they dump
into the Northern Plains and
into the Rockies, or move
west over us. We are almost
always going to get at least
one Arctic event into the
Pacifi c Northwest.”
There is a good chance of
overall below-average tem-
peratures in January.
“It’s possible that we
would have multiple out-
breaks of Arctic air, and the
one or more could ‘lock up’
over us,” Parsons said.
Winter weather could
also include windstorms and
rain-on-snow fl ood events,
though those are more likely
on the west side of the state.
“Doesn’t that make it
interesting?” Parsons said.
“Would you want the same
thing every year? La Nina
makes for some really vola-
tile weather. So batten down
the hatches.”
Enterprise woman joins National Guard
By BILL BRADSHAW
Wallowa County Chieftain
ENTERPRISE — “You’re
in the Army now. …” That’s
what Hailey Collier could
sing starting Monday, Oct.
26, when she left for basic
training at Fort Sill, Okla-
homa, for a stint in the Army
National Guard.
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The 21-year-old Enter-
prise High School graduate
will have an eight-year com-
mitment, six years active
and two reserve, as she con-
tinues a family tradition of
military service. Her uncle
also served in the Army and
both grandfathers were in the
Navy.
She said last week she has
several reasons for enlisting.
“It’s for a lot of reasons —
the educational benefi ts and
background experience so I
can fi nish a criminal justice
degree without going into
serious debt,” she said, add-
ing that she hopes her time in
olive drab will help her later.
“I also want to fi nish EMT
training and want to work in
the sheriff’s department.”
In fact, she’s hoping to
return home after her Army
hitch.
“(I) want to be here after
a little while once I get a
career going,” Collier said. “I
wouldn’t mind staying here
for a while.”
But, she said, she’ll go
where the work is. She hopes
to become a law enforcement
offi cer, possibly starting at a
dispatch position.
“A lot can change between
now and then, but that’s what
I’m looking at right now,”
she said.
After basic, she expects to
be training at Fort Sam Hous-
ton in Texas to be a medic.
She already realizes Okla-
homa and Texas will be quite
Bill Bradshaw/Wallowa County Chieftain
Hailey Collier, of Enterprise, is embarking on a stint in the
Army National Guard. On Monday, Oct. 26, 2020, she left for
basic training at Fort Sill, Oklahoma.
different from Wallowa
County, with her upcoming
posts lacking the beauty of
Northeast Oregon.
“Yeah, that’s what I’ve
heard,” she said.
As far as the potential for
going overseas, she believes
it could be interesting.
“I’m keeping an open
mind about it,” Collier said.
The 2018 EHS graduate
was active in high school.
She was a cheerleader for
football and basketball, and
in the spring she played
softball.
Collier is the daughter of
J.R. Collier, who works for
Oregon State Parks as well
as coaches high school base-
ball. Her mom is Lisa Collier,
who manages Head Start for
Wallowa and Union coun-
ties out of Enterprise. Hailey
Collier is the third of seven
children of the Colliers.
She said joining the Army
was entirely her own idea,
not her family’s.
“It wasn’t their idea, but
once (it was) brought up they
supported me,” she said.
“They agreed it would build
my background and experi-
ence. They were supportive.”
She even has found sup-
port from her co-workers
at Anton’s in Joseph, and
believes they’ll miss her.
“We all get along really
well,” Collier said. “It’s
going to be tough to leave,
but it’ll be alright.”
She’s heard the tales of
how diffi cult basic training
can be, but is undaunted.
“I’m pretty excited. I defi -
nitely think it’s something I
can do,” she said. “It’s sup-
posed to be hard and you’re
supposed to struggle. …
I’m excited to see areas I’ve
never seen before.”
Conatact Elaine at 541-263-1189
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