B10
STATE
Wallowa County Chieftain
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Revenue forecast dramatically higher than expected
at the end of a recession,
when lawmakers decided to
use the money to help cover
state spending.
Since then, voters have
made it harder for the Legis-
lature to dip into the kicker.
They passed a constitu-
tional amendment in 2000
that requires the approval of
40 state representatives and
20 senators to shift money
away from the automatic
rebate.
That’s a tall order. Even if
Democrats were united, they
would need two Republi-
cans to agree to the plan
in both the House and the
Senate — and Republican
leaders fi ercely oppose any
changes to the kicker.
“Any attempt by Dem-
OPB Photo/Bradley W. Parks/East Oregonian
ocrats to take their hard-
House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, signals her vote on the House fl oor at the Capitol in
earned kicker away from
Salem. In a bill Kotek introduced Thursday, May 16, roughly half of the estimated $1.4 billion
working Oregonians and
tax rebate would be kept by the state and spent on a set of transportation initiatives the
squander it all on growing
speaker argues will benefi t public safety, air quality, and job creation.
government or rewarding
their campaign donors will
plies and services.
be met with strong opposi-
ments that I think need to be D-Beaverton, want to put
That calculation doesn’t made,” Brown said.
tion by House Republicans,”
as much as they can into the
take into account the larger
House Minority Leader
Brown
and
House state’s reserves.
cash reserves that Rayfi eld Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Port-
Carl Wilson, R-Grants Pass,
“In public fi nance, when
warned May 15.
and his fellow co-chairs, land, have also suggested you have a temporary phe-
Rayfi eld said budget
Sens.
Betsy
Johnson, putting some of the wind- nomenon — a historic wind-
writers should focus on the
D-Scappoose, and Elizabeth fall into affordable housing, fall — the position is you
extra money in the general
Steiner Hayward, D-Beaver- a priority they share.
sock it away,” Hass said
and lottery funds instead.
ton, want the state to have
“The more we can do for after reviewing Wednes-
His take is that the Legisla-
by the end of 2021. It also housing with the additional day’s report.
ture “has no control” over
doesn’t include any new resources, we should try,”
Oregon has run up about
the kicker, despite its record
programs or projects that the Kotek said.
$27 billion in PERS debt.
size.
Legislature approves or jobs
But Rayfi eld and some of Pension costs are grow-
“We have absolutely zero
it adds.
his fellow Democrats in the ing as more public employ-
ability to touch that, unless
“I think we’re probably Legislature are leery of any ees reach retirement age.
you had a
much closer to being able new spending that would While there’s
two-thirds
to fund the current service have to be covered in future no way for
‘ANY ATTEMPT BY DEMOCRATS
vote in the
level, but that doesn’t mean budgets.
the state to
House and
that the co-chairs, for every
“You
use
one-time erase its debt
TO TAKE THEIR HARD-EARNED
Senate and
agency, they’re going to do money for one-time pur- with a sin-
KICKER AWAY FROM WORKING
the
gover-
that,” Rocco said. “They’re poses,” Rayfi eld said.
gle
move,
nor
signing
still looking at making
Sen. Chuck Riley, D-Hill- the
Legis-
OREGONIANS AND SQUANDER IT it,” Rayfi eld
some current service level sboro, who sits on the Sen- lature could
reductions.”
ate Finance and Revenue put some of
ALL ON GROWING GOVERNMENT noted.
R a y -
That hasn’t stopped key Committee, responded cau- the overage
OR REWARDING THEIR
fi eld, John-
people in the Capitol from tiously to Brown’s wish list. toward pay-
son, Steiner
tossing out ideas for how
“Those are all good ing it down.
CAMPAIGN DONORS WILL BE
Hayward and
the newfound $770 million things, and yeah, OK, sure,
It’s “very
MET WITH STRONG OPPOSITION other mem-
should be spent.
we can always use money likely” the
bers of the
Gov. Kate Brown said in those places,” Riley said. budget will
BY HOUSE REPUBLICANS.’
Joint Ways
she expects some of the “But I’m a bit of a realist and include extra
House Minority Leader Carl Wilson, R-Grants Pass,
and Means
extra money to go toward understand we’re going to money for
Commit-
mitigating tuition costs have that (economic) down- the
PERS
tee are con-
for community colleges turn. We need to make sure fund to help
and universities, as well as that we have everything pay down the debt, Kotek tion where we can still have tinuing work to shape state
investing in foster care and covered for that downturn.” said Friday. That would be a sizable set of refunds going agency budgets for the next
law enforcement.
Riley and his committee an appropriate use of the out and potentially spend two years.
Rocco said the goal is
“I have some key invest- chairman, Sen. Mark Hass, windfall, Hass and Rayfi eld a good chunk of money on
to have the budget pieced
agreed.
one-time investments.”
Brown and Kotek also
Putting the kicker into together within the next
fl oated a less likely idea: the PERS fund has been three to four weeks. The
diverting money from the proposed in the past, Kotek Legislature must approve a
personal income tax kicker noted, and although she sup- balanced budget by the end
itself.
ports the concept, she added, of June for the biennium that
At $1.4 billion, next “I don’t think you get votes starts July 1.
Budgets aside, Ways and
year’s kicker would be the for that.”
largest in state history.
The last time the kicker Means also has more than
Kotek has proposed was diverted was in 1991, 360 policy bills to consider.
spending about half of it on
transportation
initiatives,
including grants to replace
or refi t old diesel engines
to reduce pollution, seismic
upgrades to the Interstate
205 bridge between Oregon
City and West Linn, and a
new program to build elec-
tric vehicle charging stations
and other infrastructure for
low-emission vehicles.
Brown hasn’t embraced
Kotek’s kicker proposal,
House Bill 3440. She said
Thursday that if the kicker
were diverted, it should be
for something that benefi ts
the entire state.
The Legislature usually
leaves the kicker alone. Ore-
gon only cashes the rebate
out to taxpayers in good
economic times, when tax
collections over a two-year
period are at least 2% higher
than economists expect.
Brown said she’d sup-
port using kicker money to
pay down more of the PERS
debt, if the Legislature can
cobble together a plan that
has bipartisan support.
“I think that is good fi scal
sense,” said Brown.
“We’re in a really inter-
esting opportunity, because
the kicker is so large,”
Kotek said. “We haven’t had
this opportunity in the past,
where the personal income
tax kicker rightly should be
going out to taxpayers. Here,
we have an interesting situa-
About $770M
more than
previous forecast
By Mark Miller
Oregon Public Broadcasting
Oregon has come into an
unexpected windfall, and
now it’s up to lawmakers to
fi gure out what to do with it.
Personal and corpo-
rate income tax collections
during the 2019 tax fi l-
ing season were dramati-
cally higher than state econ-
omists expected, according
to a report released May 15.
While much of that money
will go back to taxpayers
next year in the form of Ore-
gon’s unique “kicker” rebate,
the new forecast gives legis-
lative budget-writers about
three-quarters of a billion
dollars more to work with
as they decide how Oregon
will spend its money over
the next two years.
They aren’t getting too
excited, though.
“It may seem strange, but
the revenue forecast does
not change the method in
which we’re budgeting,”
said state Rep. Dan Rayfi eld,
D-Corvallis, who co-chairs
the budget writing commit-
tee. “We are still looking at
reduction options. We are
still being cautious and pru-
dent about how we spend the
resources that the state has.”
Decisions on agency
spending touch practically
every Oregonian.
Between general and lot-
tery funds, state economists
project that Oregon has
$24.8 billion to spend over
the next two years. That’s up
about $770 million from the
previous forecast.
Ken Rocco, legislative
fi scal offi cer, advises law-
makers on how much their
spending ideas would cost
the state. His offi ce con-
cluded the state would need
to spend about 14% more
than the current two-year,
$21 billion budget just to
keep in place services now
being provided, because of
the impact of infl ation, pay
raises and cost hikes in sup-
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