ELECTIONS
Thursday, July 7, 2022
East Oregonian
A9
Gloomy forecasts for Democrats in governor race
Times said, “even deep-blue
Oregon is suddenly compet-
itive.”
Citing “Biden, crime, gas
prices,” New York Times
reporter Reid J. Epstein wrote,
“almost nobody in Oregon
seems to be happy.”
Lots of evidence was rolled
out to back up the claims of
era-upending turbulence.
President Joe Biden’s
popularity was falling. Infla-
tion was rising. Brown was
unpopular in state polls. Gas
and food prices were bruising
Oregonians’ wallets.
By GARY A. WARNER
Oregon Capital Bureau
SALEM — As the last
Fourth of July fireworks
faded to black Monday
night, Oregon moved into
the stretch drive of the 2022
election season.
With four months to go
until the Nov. 8 election,
trying to pick the winners in
Oregon’s top political races
is highly speculative at best.
But that hasn’t stopped a
growing chorus of prognos-
ticators.
Despite a 36-year winning
streak, a Democratic victory
in the 2022 election for
governor was called “no
sure thing.” The race for the
supposedly Democratic-tilt-
ing 5th Congressional seat
was “too close to call.”
Four-decade winning
streak on the line
Back in 2018, The New
York Times came to Oregon
in the final two weeks of
the race for governor and
pronounced the outcome
“too close to call” based on
analysis by the Cook Political
Report and other politically
Throwing elbows
Yasser Marte/East Oregonian, File
Betsy Johnson, unaffiliated Oregon gubernatorial candidate, speaks to a crowd June 17,
2022, at the Eastern Oregon Economic Summit in Hermiston. Johnson poses a threat to end
the streak of Oregon’s Democrat governors.
popular trend-watchers.
When the votes were
counted, Gov. Kate Brown
had defeated the Republican
nominee, former Rep. Knute
Buehler of Bend.
Brown’s election night
exaltations of a “slam-dunk”
was an overstatement given
she received just 50.1% of the
vote. But when minor party
candidates were added to the
count, Brown beat Buehler
by a fairly comfortable
margin of just under seven
points.
Fast forward four years
and The Times was back in
Oregon, parachuting in to
check out the political land-
scape. Their report issued on
June 28 once again suggested
that the Democratic colossus
could be toppled for the first
time in since 1986.
In what could be a “wave
year” for Republicans, The
Unlike 2018, November
will be a three-way race to
succeed Brown. Along with
Democrat Tina Kotek and
Republican Christine Drazan,
unaffiliated candidate Betsy
Johnson is expected to make
the ballot.
All are experienced legisla-
tors with sharp elbows, churn-
ing out a steady stream of press
releases fueled by a week-long
blast of U.S. Supreme Court
rulings on abortion, guns and
the environment.
Johnson hit Kotek as too
cozy with public employee
unions and derided her as “Tent
City Tina” unable to clean up
a city she’s represented in the
House since 2007 that even
U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer,
D-Portland, admitted earlier
this year is “broken.”
Kotek has grabbed onto
Johnson’s gun rights stances
that polls show are out of line
with a majority of state resi-
dents, while hitting Drazan’s
“Life wins!” tweet following
the repeal of Roe vs. Wade by
the U.S. Supreme Court that
the Republican is a danger to
Oregon’s steadfast abortion
rights stance.
Drazan has sought to
portray herself as the best “not
Kotek” candidate for voters
who want a change, casting
Johnson, a longtime Demo-
cratic state senator, as using the
unaffiliated run as a gambit to
get on the ballot.
All argue over whether
Johnson will take more votes
from Drazan or Kotek — and
which will emerge with what is
almost certainly a close plural-
ity win in November.
With so many wedge issues
landing at once, the only polit-
ical certainty at this point in
2022 is uncertainty.
Oregon voters may decide new firearms requirements
By PETER WONG
Oregon Capital Bureau
SALEM — Only two
initiatives appear likely to
qualify for a statewide vote
Nov. 8 as Oregon’s deadline
approaches for petitioners to
submit signatures.
That deadline is Friday,
July 8. The state Elections
Division will have up to 30
days afterward to verify
signatures, generally done
with sampling.
The mass shootings in
Buffalo, New York, and
Uvalde, Texas, have given
momentum to advocates of a
measure to set new require-
ments for firearms permits
and limit ammunition maga-
zines to 10 rounds each.
At the end of May, they
had submitted barely 2,500
of the 112,020 signatures
required to qualify it for the
statewide ballot. One week
before the deadline, that total
had shot up to around 120,000
— and a chief petitioner says
the goal is 140,000.
The Rev. Dr. W.J. Mark
Knutson, pastor of Augus-
tana Lutheran Church in
Portland, said a wet spring
and the ongoing coronavi-
rus pandemic slowed signa-
ture-gathering efforts by 500
volunteers.
Then came Buffalo, where
10 Black people were shot
dead May 14 in a supermar-
ket, and Uvalde, where 19
children and two teachers
died 10 days later at Robb
Elementary School.
“People were saying they
could not sit anymore, so we
had 1,000 new volunteers
come forward to join the 500,”
Knutson said in an interview.
“A lot were parents with chil-
dren — it was pretty amaz-
ing. They are learning about
democracy.
“The process is as import-
ant as the result — democratic
action by the people. In this
nation right now, we need to
see democracy at work.”
In addition to the limit
on ammunition magazines,
the measure would require
people to undergo classroom
and live-fire training before
they obtain a firearms permit,
and complete background
checks. (Current law allows
a purchaser to obtain a gun
even if the check is incom-
plete after three days; the
measure would require the
check to be completed.)
The other initiative await-
ing qualification for the ballot
is a proposed constitutional
amendment to bar legisla-
tors from seeking reelec-
tion if they have 10 or more
absences that have not been
excused by the Senate presi-
dent or House speaker. Advo-
cates have submitted 183,942
signatures; the requirement
for a constitutional amend-
ment is 149,360.
Public employee unions
led the drive for the measure
after walkouts by minority
Republicans stymied legisla-
tive action in 2019 and 2020.
The Oregon Constitution
pegs signature requirements
to a share of the votes cast for
governor in the most recent
election. It’s 6% for an initia-
tive, which changes state law,
and 8% for a constitutional
amendment.
Voters also will see two
constitutional amendments
referred by the 2021 Legisla-
ture. One would define health
care as a right; the other would
remove slavery as a punish-
ment for crime.
The Lift Every Voice
Oregon movement also had
another initiative to ban
assault weapons. Though
technically still alive, Knut-
son said advocates chose to
focus their efforts on the other
measure.
“That one will save more
lives,” he said. “The permit
(requirement) applies to every
gun. People right now can
buy guns with no training, no
knowledge of how they work
and no understanding of what
they can do.”
The limit on magazines, he
said, “would take the ammo
from assault weapons.”
Assuming the measure
qualifies for the ballot and
voters pass it, he said, advo-
cates will take a version of
the assault-weapons ban to
the 2023 Legislature.