NORTHWEST
East Oregonian
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Tuesday, December 28, 2021
OHSU: Peak omicron hospitalizations could be half of previous prediction
data. The key variable driving
the uncertainty is how likely an
omicron infection is to land a vacci-
nated person in the hospital.
For his latest run at the data,
Graven lowered omicron’s hospi-
talization rate, but upped the vari-
ant’s “immune escape,” or the
rate at which the virus evades the
defenses of immune systems that
already had been exposed to the
virus. He also upped his estimate of
how many people, on average, will
get boosters every day. The result
showed a dramatically lower peak
hospitalization rate.
The peak could end up even
lower if Oregon’s efforts to get
people boosted are particularly
successful, according to Graven’s
modeling.
Omicron-driven cases should
start climbing now, Graven said,
and hospitalizations soon will
follow.
“One way we’re going to know
is we’re going to see a lot more
breakthrough cases,” Graven said.
Oregon Health Authority
experts have said the variant likely
already is the dominant one in
Oregon, though there is such a lag
in sequencing data the state does
not know for sure.
COVID-19 cases among vacci-
nated people have consistently
accounted for about 30% of known
infections since early November.
With omicron, people who have
had a regular course of two doses
of the vaccine appear to be just as
likely to get infected as those who
haven’t been vaccinated, research
shows.
The omicron variant appears to
By FEDOR ZARKHIN
The Oregonian
SALEM — Oregon’s COVID-
19 omicron hospitalization peak
won’t be nearly as bad as forecast-
ers predicted a week ago but still
could overwhelm the health care
system within weeks with about as
many people needing hospital beds
as did during the delta wave.
Oregon Health & Science
University revised its omicron
surge projections Thursday, Dec.
23, down from about 2,400 people
hospitalized at the peak of the
upcoming surge to about 1,200,
provided Oregonians take steps to
prevent the spread of infections.
The peak, which is expected to
hit in early February, could exceed
1,700 if Oregonians’ behavior
doesn’t change, though it always
has in the past when infections
have started to climb, OHSU data
analyst Peter Graven said.
But while the downward revision
could be heartening, the currently
predicted wave of hospitalizations
could still rival or exceed Oregon’s
peak in early September.
“The risk of overwhelming
hospital systems is real,” Graven
said. “We’re seeing a dire situa-
tion.”
Graven said he incorporated
new, more accurate data from
countries fully in the throes of their
omicron surges in his COVID-19
forecasting model, allowing him to
make more accurate predictions for
what will happen in Oregon.
The numbers could be revised
down again next week, when
Graven said he hopes to produce
a forecast with yet more accurate
Ben Lonergan/East Oregonian, File
Registered nurse and firefighter Rachelle Lasater administers a dose of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vac-
cine Sept. 7, 2021, at the East Umatilla County Ambulance Area Health District office in Athena. Oregon Health &
Science University on Thursday, Dec. 23, revised its forecast for peak hospitalizations due to the omicron variant
from about 2,400 people to about 1,200.
cause milder illness, but spreads so
easily and so fast the sheer volume
of sick people is expected to send
hundreds to the hospital. Having
two shots of the vaccine helps
prevent serious illness but does not
always do so. Boosters are consid-
ered the best available option for
those who are eligible.
The Oregon Health Authority
and Gov. Kate Brown last week put
the state on notice after Graven’s
previous forecast came out, urging
1 million more Oregonians to get a
booster shot.
The health authority announced
Forecast for Pendleton Area
TODAY
WEDNESDAY
| Go to AccuWeather.com
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
Dec. 23 it will open four clin-
ics, in addition to the six already
in service. The agency has asked
providers to double or triple how
many doses they administer each
week. The health authority also has
hired 60 additional vaccinators,
who will be sent to help at medical
facilities around the state, spokes-
person Rudy Owens said.
But the health authority plans
to shut down all six of its high-vol-
ume clinics for some portion of the
holidays, citing health care work-
ers’ exhaustion.
“We want to ensure they get a
Steelhead fishing on Columbia River
still off limits above The Dalles Dam
East Oregonian
Very cold with a
little snow
Very cold; a little
morning snow
Mostly cloudy with
fl urries
Turning colder
with some sun
Partly sunny and
very cold
PENDLETON TEMPERATURE FORECAST
28° 15°
19°
7°
33° 14°
23° 15°
18° 2°
HERMISTON TEMPERATURE FORECAST
28° 19°
24° 13°
34° 16°
23°
23° 20°
4°
OREGON FORECAST
ALMANAC
Shown is today’s weather. Temperatures are today’s highs and tonight’s lows.
PENDLETON
through 3 p.m. yest.
HIGH
LOW
TEMP.
Seattle
Olympia
34/22
18/11
22/14
Longview
Kennewick Walla Walla
23/14
Lewiston
34/23
24/18
Astoria
36/25
Pullman
Yakima 17/10
31/20
24/19
Portland
Hermiston
35/26
The Dalles 28/19
Salem
Corvallis
36/29
Yesterday
Normals
Records
La Grande
28/19
PRECIPITATION
John Day
Eugene
Bend
37/31
34/22
30/25
Ontario
27/22
Caldwell
Burns
20°
16°
42°
28°
63° (1955) 6° (1983)
24 hours ending 3 p.m.
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Normal month to date
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Albany
37/31
0.02"
1.56"
0.97"
6.63"
4.46"
8.49"
WINDS (in mph)
30/23
24/16
Trace
1.52"
1.31"
8.90"
13.06"
13.04"
through 3 p.m. yest.
HIGH
LOW
TEMP.
Pendleton 25/17
37/29
24 hours ending 3 p.m.
Month to date
Normal month to date
Year to date
Last year to date
Normal year to date
HERMISTON
Enterprise
28/15
30/22
18°
13°
40°
27°
63° (1980) 6° (1924)
PRECIPITATION
Moses
Lake
30/20
Aberdeen
15/0
13/5
Tacoma
Yesterday
Normals
Records
Spokane
Wenatchee
30/22
Today
Medford
36/32
Wed.
NE 4-8
NW 4-8
Boardman
Pendleton
NNE 4-8
WNW 4-8
SUN AND MOON
Klamath Falls
29/20
Forecasts and graphics provided by AccuWeather, Inc. ©2021
Sunrise today
Sunset tonight
Moonrise today
Moonset today
7:35 a.m.
4:18 p.m.
1:22 a.m.
12:42 p.m.
New
First
Full
Last
Jan 2
Jan 9
Jan 17
Jan 25
NATIONAL EXTREMES
much deserved opportunity to rest
and spend time with their friends
and families,” Owens said in an
email.
And, per the OHA, the state’s
clinics aren’t the core engine
behind the statewide vaccination
effort. The high-volume sites will
administer about 10% of the shots
to be provided statewide, Owens
said.
“We believe it will be more
efficient and productive to scale
up existing providers like clin-
ics and hospitals where we can,”
Owens said.
SALEM — State regulators have closed
steelhead fishing into 2022 for the main-
stem Columbia River from The Dalles Dam
upstream to the border of Oregon and Wash-
ington.
The Oregon Department of Fish and Wild-
life announced the closure in a press release
Wednesday, Dec. 22. The ban on steelhead
extends into the mid-Columbia tributaries of
the Deschutes, John Day, Umatilla and Walla
Walla rivers.
The decision is to protect summer steel-
head. Even though it soon will be 2022, steel-
head from summer’s record low upriver run
remain in the mainstem Columbia River and
tributaries above The Dalles Dam, accord-
ing to ODFW. The passage of approximately
67,750 fish at Bonneville Dam this year was
70% of the forecast and the lowest return on
record.
Oregon and Washington fishery managers
since 2017 have implemented a number of
fishery restrictions throughout the Colum-
bia River and various tributaries due to the
declining steelhead returns. Protective regu-
lations have included broad area and time
closures, one-steelhead bag limits when open,
thermal angling sanctuaries and hoot-owl
restrictions (closing fishing at 2 p.m. before
temperatures are warmest).
In addition to protecting wild summer
steelhead, fishing closures have helped ensure
hatcheries throughout the system were able to
collect sufficient broodstock to spawn the next
generation of hatchery steelhead.
While recent summer steelhead returns
have been poor, the press release stated there
are hopeful signs that conditions for salmon
and steelhead may improve in the Columbia
Basin in coming years. The Pacific North-
west is in a La Nina cycle, which delivers
cooler ocean temperatures and more rain and
snow that may help alleviate the drought and
improve habitat conditions for salmon and
steelhead.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration estimates ocean conditions
off Oregon in 2021 were the second-best since
sampling of ecosystem indicators started in
1998. These improved conditions should
result in better ocean survival and subsequent
adult returns.
Although many steelhead fisheries have
been constrained in recent years, opportunity
remains available. Per permanent regulations,
fishing for hatchery winter steelhead is open
in the Columbia River downstream of The
Dalles Dam and in most adjacent tributaries.
Anglers can fish for summer steelhead in
segments of the Imnaha, Umatilla and Grande
Ronde rivers where return data indicates
broodstock needs will be met and impacts to
wild fish will be low. The bag limit for hatch-
ery steelhead will increase to two fish begin-
ning Jan. 1 in the Snake River from Lewiston
to Hells Canyon Dam.
Because poor summer steelhead returns
may persist in the near-term, according to
the press release, fish biologists across the
region will be coordinating on future protec-
tive measures while considering equitable
sharing of the conservation burden.
Yesterday’s National Extremes: (for the 48 contiguous states)
High 87° in Kingsville, Texas Low -34° in Gold Butte, Mont.
IN BRIEF
NATIONAL WEATHER TODAY
Construction bid for new
Wallowa clinic gets the OK
WALLOWA — The Wallowa County
Health Care District Board of Trustees on
Dec. 13 accepted the bid of Wellens General
Contractors to remodel the former Fox
Archery location in Wallowa into the new
location of the Wallowa Memorial Medical
Clinic.
“The people of Wallowa deserve to have
a premier clinic that does not require an
hour round-trip trek to garner health care
services.” Wallowa Memorial Hospital CEO
Larry Davy said in a press release. “It is our
mission to provide premier care to the residents
of Wallowa County. A professional clinic in
Wallowa is the next piece in delivering on that
mission. We are so thankful for the commu-
nity’s support and the approval of the board.”
According to the release from Wallowa
Memorial Hospital and Clinics, the approval
of the bid is the next step in getting the
roughly $3 million project going.
“We couldn’t be more excited to bring
consistent, quality care back to the people of
Wallowa,” said Nancy Crenshaw, a Wallowa
resident and Health Care District Board
member since 2018.
The new clinic, which is on track to open
sometime in 2022, will be a state-of-the-
art clinic similar to the one recently built in
Joseph. The roughly 5,400-square-foot build-
ing will have six exam rooms, a behavioral
health room, a community conference room
and a physical therapy room. The clinic will
be open five days a week.
— EO Media Group
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