KATHRYN B. BROWN
Owner
ANDREW CUTLER
Publisher/Editor
ERICK PETERSON
Hermiston Editor/Senior Reporter
THURSDAy, NOVeMBeR 18, 2021
A4
Founded October 16, 1875
OUR VIEW
We must be
friends, not
enemies
n his first inaugural address, Abraham
Lincoln made an appeal for unity on
the eve of the Civil War.
“We are not enemies, but friends. We
must not be enemies. Though passion may
have strained it must not break our bonds
of affection. The mystic chords of memory,
stretching from every battlefield and patriot
grave to every living heart and hearthstone
all over this broad land, will yet swell the
chorus of the Union, when again touched,
as surely they will be, by the better angels
of our nature.”
The American people are becoming
ever more divided by national politics and
cultural disputes. Recent polls conducted
by the Pew Research Center show the parti-
san differences.
The politics of the past 20 years have
become increasingly divisive, intolerant
and personal.
Where did it all begin? Was it the elec-
tion in 2020 of Joe Biden and the specious
allegations of fraud, or was it the 2016
election of Donald Trump and the equally
specious allegations of Russian collusion?
Does it go back to Bush v. Gore, circa
2000?
Over the last 18 months we’ve seen a
host of incidents that have fueled the divide
— a summer of nightly riots in major
cities accentuated by vandalism, looting
and attempts to burn public buildings and
immolate police officers; a divisive elec-
toral campaign; and an angry mob of our
fellow citizens busting into the U.S. Capi-
tol.
And, of course, there’s the turmoil of
the COVID-19 pandemic and the response
to it by state and federal officials. What
could be more divisive than government by
mandate?
There is no shortage of provocateurs,
left and right, using these incidents to whip
us into a frenzy. But the real fault lies with
us. We’ve taken the bait.
We have become all too occupied with
the divisions, arranging ourselves neatly in
one camp or another. We have listened only
to those things that bolstered our world
view. We allowed agitators and activists to
use our fear and anger as a means to their
own ends.
We stopped talking with and listening to
each other. We have slapped vile labels on
our neighbors and turned them into irre-
deemable enemies. And, when times are
desperate, instinct dictates we deal harshly
with an enemy.
We can disagree, but we must respect
each other’s point of view. We should live
our lives, not our politics. Rather than our
differences, we must focus on our common
values and ideals.
Our friendships are strained, but we
must not be enemies.
I
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211 S.E. Byers Ave., Pendleton, OR 97801
Forecasting snow accumulation in the area
LARRY
NIERENBERG
EYE TO THE SKY
ow that it is mid-November,
we all know Thanksgiving and
Christmas are right around the
corner. It also means winter and snow
across most of Oregon and Washington
are not that far away, either.
In the past, the National Weather
Service would forecast a range of snow
accumulation for a location, say 4 to 6
inches, provide a particular time frame,
and that would be it.
Currently, the NWS is not only fore-
casting the range but is providing the
full range of possibilities from the least
amount to the maximum amount for
a given storm. Using the 4- to 6-inch
range I mentioned above, that would be
considered the “most likely” accumu-
lation for a location. What this means is
the forecaster is most confident that these
amounts will occur in that particular
area. However, does the forecaster think
there is a better chance of 4 inches or 6
inches?
Also, though 4 to 6 inches is the most
likely range of accumulations, there
is still a chance the snowfall could be
greater than 6 inches. Is this chance a
high probability or low probability of
occurring? At the same time, there is
a chance the snow could be less than 4
inches. Again, is that a high percentage
or a low percentage chance?
Over the last year or so, the NWS in
Pendleton began forecasting probabi-
listic snow amounts. National Weather
Service meteorologists predict the “most
N
likely” accumulations, based on their
expertise and interpretation of the avail-
able meteorological guidance. A full set
of snowfall forecast information is then
developed that combines NWS fore-
caster skill and 50-plus U.S. and interna-
tional weather models to give a range of
possibilities, not just the current expec-
tation.
Thus a more complete picture is
formed with all this information that
lets us know the likelihood of exceeding
any given snowfall amount. Specifically,
we use all this forecast data to compute
a reasonable lower-end and high-
er-end snowfall amount based on many
computer model simulations of possible
snowfall totals.
The lower end amount represents a
90% chance that more snow will fall
and only a 1 in 10 (or 10%) chance that
less snow will fall. Conversely, our
reasonable upper end snowfall amount
represents a more unlikely scenario, with
only a 1 in 10, or 10%, chance that more
snow will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90%,
chance that less will fall. The upper end
amount is considered a “reasonable worst
case scenario” and has been proven to be
useful for planning purposes for many of
our partner agencies.
The most likely accumulations, “low
end”, and “high end” are then plotted on
maps. Additionally, other maps are made
available for the probabilities of exceed-
ing 1 inch, 2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, 8
inches, 12 inches and 18 inches or more
of snow across the area.
Lastly, data is provided numeri-
cally for several cities and towns and
by county. For example in Umatilla
County, data is provided for Hermiston,
Meacham, Milton-Freewater, Pendleton,
Tollgate and Ukiah.
So, going back to my example of 4
to 6 inches, again, that is the most likely
amount. Hypothetically, the chance of 8
inches or more could be only 10%, or it
could be 40% or more depending on the
scenario. These numbers can give you an
idea if the accumulations look to be on
the upper end or lower end of the forecast
range, or even if they will be exceeded or
come up short.
Also, the “high end” or “reasonable
worst case” values can sometimes end
up being fairly close to the most likely
forecast. When this happens, it gener-
ally means there is good confidence
in the forecast with little variation.
Greater disparities between the high end,
expected, and worst case amounts point
to lesser confidence and a more complex
winter storm system. Often, you will see
quite a bit of variability (sometimes with
accumulation differences in feet) over the
Cascades and mountains of Northeastern
Oregon and Southeastern Washington.
These probabilistic forecasts are
generally updated twice a day around
5 a.m. and 5 p.m., but they can be
updated at any time if the forecaster
makes a significant change to the snow
accumulations. The maps and data
can be found on the National Weather
Service Pendleton’s website at weather.
gov/PDT/winter.
Hopefully, you will find this infor-
mation useful the next time the flakes fly
across Northeastern Oregon or South-
eastern Washington.
———
Larry Nierenberg is a senior forecaster
for the National Weather Service in Pend-
leton. Nierenberg leads National Weather
Service community outreach and hazard-
ous weather preparedness and resiliency
programs.
son does respond on scene, most patients
are transported by an eMT or eMTI.
To protest his firing, Mr. Anderson’s
crew “walked,” leaving an entire town
and a large section of Interstate 84 with-
out emergency care. I did not support
this and believe it’s morally and ethi-
cally wrong. They have since returned
with the condition I am no longer a crew
member. Now gossip abounds. Board
members and clinic staff have been
demonized. This vitriol is incredibly
damaging and may prove detrimental
to both the clinic and the ambulance. It
needs to stop. I pray it does.
Susie Crosby
Heppner
agreement on the fact that our veterans
deserve more. We have always been
there for you. Please consider spending
10 minutes to be there for us. Call our
representatives and tell them you care.
Here are just a few of the most influ-
ential bills:
• H.R. 147 provides transition
services for military to civilian employ-
ment; to include apprenticeships.
• H.R. 886 establishes grants and
assistance for state/local/tribal govern-
ments to implement programs to assist
veterans charged with non-violent
crimes to receive help.
• H.R. 3504 improves Veterans
Affairs housing and education assistance
programs.
• S. 1467 directs the VA to begin clin-
ical trials on medical cannabis.
• S. 189 directs the VA to use the
same cost of living increase as Social
Security; ensuring disabled veterans
keep up with inflation.
For an extensive list of proposals and
more ways you can help, visit www.vfw.
org/advocacy. (I am not affiliated with
the Veterans of Foreign Wars, just a fan
of their work.)
Kelley Dolson, USN retired
La Grande
YOUR VIEWS
Another perspective from
an Arlington emergency
responder
Information has circulated concern-
ing the firing of David Anderson from
his position as North Gilliam County
Health District health care administra-
tor. Most information has been gathered
from Mr. Anderson and his supporters,
without equal representations from the
NGCHD board. These members cannot
divulge information discussed in execu-
tive sessions. This has led to an inaccu-
rate perception of the situation.
As an eMI intermediate who has
been responding to calls in Arling-
ton since 2010, and a clinic employee,
I would like to clear a few things up.
The idea that Mr. Anderson was fired
“for no reason” is naive at best. There
is always a reason, even if unknown to
some. Current litigation will determine
the justification. The “we are noth-
ing without David” statement made by
one crew member does not apply to all
crew members. Hundreds of patients
were transported successfully before
Mr. Anderson was hired. Many patients
would not have survived without our
pre-David care. And though Mr. Ander-
Veterans need our help
November includes both Veterans
Day and the Marine Corps birthday, a
busy month for the veteran community.
Typically there are ceremonies, parades
and plenty of mattress sales. This year,
in addition to all of that, I have a request.
Please help us.
I’m tired of watching my brothers
and sisters die, broken and alone. I don’t
care about your politics or your reli-
gion. There should be nothing here but