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Thursday, January 14, 2021
East Oregonian
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Modeling: Only 127 ICU beds were available as of Jan. 12
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outcome startling and dark.
It is important to note the
IHME new daily case totals
are estimates of all COVID-
19 cases in Oregon, includ-
ing those not tested. The
OHA totals include only
cases of COVID-19 that
have resulted in a positive
test or are presumptive posi-
tive cases, meaning there is a
significant disparity between
the numbers each organiza-
tion produces.
The IHME’s modeling of
what it calls the “most likely”
scenario predicts Oregon’s
death toll could more than
triple from 1,667 on Jan. 12
to 5,011 by April 1.
That scenario also proj-
ects the pandemic will hit
extremes previously unheard
of in Oregon during Febru-
ary, with average daily new
infections reaching 8,763 by
Feb. 7. The state’s all-time
high for daily new infections
reported by the OHA stood at
2,176 as of Monday, Jan. 11.
The same modeling put
the average number of new
cases projected for Saturday,
Jan. 9 at 1,814, which is rela-
Ben Lonergan/East Oregonian, File
Cars pass through a drive-thru COVID-19 testing event at Wildhorse Resort & Casino in Mis-
sion on Dec. 17, 2020.
tively close to the number
of cases the Oregon Health
Authority reported that day
at 1,643, though daily cases
tapered off to 939 by Jan. 11.
T he I n st it ut e a l so
projected that demand for
intensive care unit beds in
Oregon, due to COVID-
19, would exceed the state’s
capacity on Saturday, Jan.
16, with demand rising until
late February and continu-
ing to exceed availability
until March 17.
The IMHE model puts
the number of ICU beds
available to take COVID-19
patients at 210, which is far
below the actual number of
total ICU beds in Oregon
— 695, according to track-
ing data from the OHA.
However, not all of those
beds will be able to accept
COVID-19 patients, and as
of Jan. 12, only 127 of those
beds statewide were unoccu-
pied and staffed, according to
the OHA.
A different scenario that
IHME modeled, which
accounts for a rapid rollout of
a COVID-19 vaccine to those
at high risk, predicts fewer
deaths from the disease.
However, spread in that
scenario remains extreme.
Under the rapid rollout
to high-risk populations
scenario, which appears to
track closely with statewide
vaccination efforts thus far,
the model projected Oregon
would tally 8,650 average
daily COVID-19 infections
by Feb. 6 and a total of 4,585
deaths by April 1.
“As compared to a no
vaccine scenario, rapid roll-
out (of a COVID-19 vaccine)
targeting high-risk individ-
uals only could save 1,300
lives,” IHME stated in its
modeling report.
In the IHME’s worst-case
scenario, state mandates were
eased, resulting in a projected
death toll in Oregon og 6,876
by April 1 and 15,744 average
daily new infections reached
by Feb. 11.
The IHME’s best-case
scenario came in the form
of an immediate jump to
“universal mask use,” in
which 95% of Oregonians
complied fully with proper
mask-wearing procedures. In
that scenario, daily infections
held steady before beginning
to taper off in early Febru-
ary. Current mask use was
measured at 76%.
While the projections
from the Institute of Health
Metrics and Evaluation are
dire, it should be noted the
Oregon Health Authority
maintains that modeling
is extremely challenging.
Additionally, changes in
each of the factors that drive
the spread of the disease —
mask wearing, vaccination,
social distancing — are all
modeled separately, meaning
that changes in more than one
(for example, if vaccination
were to speed up as people
wore masks more diligently)
would result in a different
outcome.
Vaccine: County has received about 2,700 doses
Continued from Page A1
Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press
Members of the National Guard gather inside the Capitol
Visitor Center on Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2021, in Washington as
the House of Representatives continues with its fast-moving
House vote to impeach President Donald Trump, a week after
a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol.
Bentz:
Continued from Page A1
him for incitement of insurrec-
tion.”
Two Republicans from
Washington state also voted
to impeach.
“I believe in our Constitu-
tion, individual liberty, free
markets, charity, life, justice,
peace and this exceptional
country,” Rep. Jaime Herrera
Beutler, R-Washington, said
prior to the vote. “I see that my
own party will be best served
when those among us choose
truth.”
Rep. Dan Newhouse,
R-Washington, said in a state-
ment before the vote that
opposing impeachment would
“validate the unacceptable
violence we witnessed in our
nation’s capital.”
The House Judiciary
Committee’s statement for
impeachment said reports
showed the crowd at Trump’s
rally preceding the riot last
week was large, angry and
prepared for violence.
At that rally, Trump’s
“incendiary speech” reiter-
ated false claims that “we won
this election, and we won it by
a landslide.” Trump told the
crowd that “if you don’t fight
like hell, you’re not going to
have a country anymore.”
He said to “walk down Penn-
sylvania Avenue to prevent
Congress from confirming
the election of ‘an illegitimate
President.’”
“These comments directly
incited a violent attack on the
Capitol that threatened the
safety and lives of the Vice
President, the Speaker of the
House, and the President pro
tempore of the Senate, the first
three individuals in the line of
succession to the presidency,”
the Judiciary Committee
report read.
“The rioters attacked
law enforcement officers,
unleashed chaos and terror
among Members and staffers
and their families,” the report
said.
Bentz was sworn in on Jan.
4 as the new congressman
replacing 20-year veteran Rep.
Greg Walden, R-Hood River.
Bentz had been in the Capi-
tol earlier on Jan. 6, before
thousands of Trump support-
ers stormed the seat of national
government, overwhelmed
police and began defacing
statues, occupying offices and
stealing computers and other
items.
The members of Congress
in the Capitol at the time
were able to escape the riot-
ers by a few minutes, as secu-
rity guards rushed them into
safe locations, along with
Vice-President Mike Pence.
Bentz, at that time, was
in his office in the Long-
worth Office Building, across
Independence Avenue from
the Capitol. He was follow-
ing congressional leaders’
requests to reduce the number
of people in and around the
chambers for fears of COVID-
19 infection. He consulted
with staff about upcoming
possible objections to Elec-
toral College votes. Bentz had
already voted to approve the
votes of Arizona, saying he
saw no reasonable issues on
which to object. But additional
challenges were expected on
other states won by Joe Biden.
Bentz became aware that
the thousands of people who
attended the Trump speech
streamed up Pennsylvania
Avenue, some yelling “hang
Mike Pence” and “stop the
steal,” assaulting police offi-
cers, and smashing their way
into the Capitol. Bentz and his
staff followed security proto-
cols to lock the office and shel-
ter in place. They watched the
events unfold like most Amer-
icans experienced it: on tele-
vision.
Bentz issued a statement
that evening about the attack.
“I condemn the actions
of the rioters in the stron-
gest terms possible,” he said.
“I call on all Americans to
choose peaceful protests over
violence, chaos, and anarchy.”
Bentz also made clear that
the verification of the Electoral
College vote that evening had
officially and finally ended the
election.
“We can accept that Joe
Biden will be the next Pres-
ident of the United States,”
Bentz said. “I am commit-
ted to a peaceful transfer of
power.”
Bentz said the majority
of Trump supporters in his
district and around the nation
opposed the attack on the
Capitol.
“I continue to empathize
with those whose frustrations
with the electoral system
remain unresolved. I share
their frustrations, and as the
Representative of Oregon’s
Second District, I will do my
best to address their concerns.”
additional doses on Jan. 12,
he said.
“We started setting up
staff with the intent that we
were going to hold three
(vaccine clinics) for three
weeks, but it was on the
condition that we would get
the vaccine,” Fiumara said.
“Since we didn’t, we obvi-
ously can’t hold those events.”
So far, Umatilla County
has inoculated nearly 2,000
residents since the efforts
began in late December 2020,
which ranks 11th among
counties in Oregon. Officials
say the county has received
around 2,700 doses.
Good Shepherd Medi-
cal Center in Hermiston has
immunized 1,250 people
out of the 1,500 doses they
have received, according to a
spokesperson from the hospi-
tal. However, the spokesper-
son said the hospital is unsure
when the next shipment will
arrive and how many doses
they will receive.
Officials say that St.
Anthony Hospital in Pendle-
ton does not have any more
doses of the vaccine.
Fiumara and Murdock
say each time the county
has received a shipment of
vaccines, they have been
pleasantly surprised that they
have been able to use up the
doses quickly, highlighting
the two drive-thru clinics last
week that brought the vaccine
to nearly 600 residents. But
when the event was over,
the county had exhausted its
supply of vaccine.
“There’s going to be folks
in the county who don’t want
the vaccine,” Fiumara said.
“But, right now, the folks who
want it — there’s a lot more
than we have vaccines to give
right now.”
Recently, the county
obtained a freezer from
Oregon State University
capable of holding the Pfiz-
er-BioNTech vaccine, which
requires containment at
temperatures close to that
of Antarctica, according to
officials. Fiumara said he
has corresponded with state
officials about the county’s
desires to receive the Pfizer
vaccine, which is distributed
in 1,000-dose batches, but
Life Flight:
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iston is one of the rural
hospitals that Life Flight
serves.
Brian Patrick, vice pres-
ident of nursing, said as a
“critical access hospital,”
one of Good Shepherd’s
functions is to be able to get
patients in the Hermiston
area to a larger hospital if
they need more specialized
care than Good Shepherd is
able to provide. The hospi-
tal’s contract with Life Flight
helps facilitate that, he said.
Ben Lonergan/East Oregonian, File
A nurse reaches for a vial of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine during a vaccination clinic at
St. Anthony Hospital on Dec. 28, 2020.
added the state seems some-
what reluctant to make ship-
ments because of doubts the
county could distribute all the
vaccines quickly enough.
County officials say they
are also hearing “rumblings”
from some state health offi-
cials that OHA will be
increasing its vaccine ship-
ments to more densely popu-
lated centers, such as along
the Interstate 5 corridor, but
have yet to see confirma-
tion in writing that this will
happen.
“We’re really worried
that means we’re not going
to receive large doses of
vaccine,” Fiumara said.
Fiumara said that a week
ago, he would have consid-
ered a lack of federal supply
to be one of the main reasons
why the state is distributing
vaccines so slowly. But now,
with the shifts and changes
to accommodate the 12,000-
dose benchmark, “it’s start-
ing to look like maybe there’s
more holdup within OHA
than we thought,” he said.
“The feds have given
way more (vaccines) than
have been distributed out,”
Fiumara said. “And the ques-
tion becomes why. What is
holding it up and what needs
to change to fix that. And I
don’t know those answers
because we’re not having that
same issue here.”
Murdock said by keeping
the vaccine on the west side
of the state, he believes the
state is neglecting its commit-
ment to focus on vaccinating
groups disproportionately
affected by COVID-19,
noting that Umatilla County
has a considerably diverse
population.
The state’s changes come
in response to a national shift
as the Trump administration
on Jan. 12 instructed states
to begin immunizing every
American over 65 years old,
as well as tens of millions of
people with health conditions
that make them especially
vulnerable to the virus.
Like the efforts in Oregon,
that change also comes in
response to pressure due to
a slow start in vaccinations,
as only 9 million people had
received at least one dose
of a COVID-19 vaccine by
Monday Jan. 11, according
to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention —
considerably less than what
the federal government had
originally promised.
The move comes just
as the country’s death toll
recently eclipsed another
grim milestone, now with
more than 4,000 Ameri-
cans dying from the virus
each day. More than 380,000
Americans have died
from COVID-19 since the
pandemic began, according
to a New York Times data-
base.
In Oregon, daily reported
deaths continue to show
record highs, with a record
54 Oregonians reported
dead from the virus on Jan.
12 and 41 more on Wednes-
day, Jan. 13. The state has
averaged 17 reported deaths
in the past week, according
to an Oregonlive/Oregonian
database. Since the pandemic
began, 1,667 Oregonians
have died from the virus.
In Umatilla County, 64
residents have reportedly
died from COVID-19. With
6,471 confirmed cases since
the pandemic began, the
county has reported 828 cases
per 10,000 residents. That’s
the second highest rate of
infection among counties in
Oregon, ranked only behind
Malheur County, which has
nearly 50,000 fewer residents
and over 3,000 fewer cases.
“Schools are trying to
get open, all these things are
trying to happen, and a lot of
folks want the vaccine as a
pathway for this to open and
we want to give it to them,”
Fiumara said. “I think a lot of
folks are under the impres-
sion that we have more infor-
mation than we’re sharing,
and honestly, we really don’t.
We’re as frustrated as a lot of
folks.”
Patrick said the hospi-
tal also recently signed an
agreement with Umatilla
County Fire District No. 1
to share the cost of an ambu-
lance and crew stationed at
Good Shepherd solely for
transports. Ground trans-
ports can be more appropri-
ate in some situations, such
as in severe weather or with
a patient whose condition
would be negatively affected
by the pressure at a high alti-
tude.
“One limitation with Life
Flight is that if it’s foggy or
windy, that limits their abil-
ity to get out of here,” Patrick
said.
Wit h Li fe Fl ig ht ,
however, a patient having
a heart attack can get to a
catheterization lab within 90
minutes, he said. Patrick also
pointed out that Life Flight is
staffed by nurses qualified to
give a more advanced level
of care than a paramedic,
with more advanced equip-
ment at their disposal than a
typical ambulance.
A recent news release
from Life Flight Network
stated Life Flight’s aircraft
and specialized ambulances
act as a “mobile intensive
care unit” able to perform
care such as ICU-level venti-
lation. The network recently
announced new upgrades to
its capabilities, including the
ability for in-flight plasma
transfusions.
The service transported
its first suspected COVID-
19 patient on March 1, 2020.
“This year has required
health care workers across
the region to come together
to respond to this unprece-
dented public health crisis,”
Michael Griffiths, CEO of
Life Flight Network, said
in a statement. “Working
alongside first responders,
doctors, and nurses in every
part of the region, we’ll
continue to do our part for
as long as we’re needed.”