Page 10A
East Oregonian
ELECTION 2016
Saturday, November 5, 2016
Supermajority could slip away,
but Oregon Dems still in control
By HILLARY BORRUD
The Oregonian/OregonLive
SALEM — Democrats in the
Oregon Legislature have a problem
this fall.
Republicans have a fighting
chance to claw back seats in the
House and Senate — thanks to an
unusual number of open seats, a slate
with some moderate candidates and
an infusion of local and national cash.
Democrats aren’t expected to lose
control of either chamber. But defeats
could erase their 18-12 supermajority
in the Senate and cut into their 35-25
majority in the House. That would
threaten their ability to push priority
bills in 2017, from requiring busi-
nesses to provide paid family leave to
raising the gas tax for a long-antici-
pated transportation package.
And yet that setback may only be
short-lived.
Even if they lost badly this year,
Oregon Democrats have a demo-
graphic edge that’s likely to widen
over the next decade, as the state’s
urban centers — including suburbs
and smaller cities such as Hood River
and Bend — continue to grow. Those
areas already have more Democrats
than Republicans, and more people
overall presumably means even more
Democrats.
———
Registered Democrats already
outnumber Republicans in 39 of
the 60 House districts and 22 of 30
Senate districts, according to an
analysis of data from the Secretary of
State’s office. In a little over a decade,
as much as 85 percent of Oregonians
could be living in those areas, said
Jim Moore, director of the Tom
McCall Center for Policy Innovation
at Pacific University.
Moore said lawmakers will likely
redraw their districts after national
censuses in 2020 and 2030 and shift
seats from rural areas to “the more
Democratic population centers.”
“At that point, the Republicans are
going to be in a world of hurt, because
they’re not going to have the suburban
districts anymore. They’ll just have
the rural districts,” Moore said. “The
demographics are everything, they
really are.”
Despite Democrats’ overall regis-
tration edge, House Majority Leader
Jennifer Williamson, D-Portland, said
several contests this fall are so close
— because of open seats in swing
districts — they could be coin flips.
Williamson said she’s focused
on simply holding onto Democrats’
10-vote majority in the House, which
puts them one vote shy of a superma-
jority. With a supermajority, Demo-
crats could pass revenue measures
without any Republican votes.
“We see this as a very defensive
cycle,” Williamson said. “My first
and foremost priority is to return to
a majority in the House. I think we
can’t take anything for granted this
election cycle.”
Moore said this year’s most
competitive House races are clustered
in Portland’s suburbs and a district
between Salem and Woodburn.
Right now, they’re all held by
Democrats who’ve decided not to
seek re-election. And the Republicans
looking to replace them have largely
positioned themselves as friendlier to
a wider spectrum of voters.
———
Preston Mann, a spokesman for
Promote Oregon Leadership, the
political action committee for House
Republicans, pointed out that candi-
dates lost by roughly 1,000 to 1,400
votes in three of those districts — in
Woodburn, around Hillsboro, and
near Happy Valley and Damascus —
in 2014.
But for all their talk of defense,
AP Photo/Don Ryan, File
Republicans have a fighting chance to claw back seats in the House
and Senate, thanks to an unusual number of open seats, a slate with
some moderate candidates and an infusion of local and national cash.
House Democrats have also gone on
the attack in some Republican-held
districts where Democrats nonethe-
less hold a registration edge.
Two of those seats, in Wilsonville
and out in Yamhill County, are being
vacated by Republicans. But the other
three are held by moderate incum-
bents who’ve defied demographics
to win convincingly in past elections:
Knute Buehler of Bend, Julie Parrish
of West Linn and Mark Johnson of
Hood River.
Privately, some political observers
wondered why Williamson and
Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, have
aggressively targeted those districts
with so many open Democratic seats
to defend, reports The Oregonian.
Williamson defended the strategy,
saying it was valid to challenge
Republicans in areas “where we see a
Democratic registration edge.”
But House Minority Leader Mike
McLane, R-Powell Butte, called
Parrish, Johnson and Buehler the
type of centrist candidates who still
appeal to voters in increasingly blue
suburban districts.
“They’re running very vicious
campaigns against all three of them,”
McLane said of Democrats, “which
is a shame because Knute and Mark
and Julie have shown themselves to
be bipartisan leaders and independent
leaders.”
For example, Parrish supported
Oregon’s 2014 ballot initiative to
legalize same-sex marriage and has
declined to seek endorsements from
groups on either side of the abortion
issue, saying “it’s not for me to make
that decision for someone else.”
Buehler, an orthopedic surgeon
often mentioned as a 2018 guberna-
torial candidate, championed a 2015
bill that made Oregon the second state
after California to allow on-demand
birth control pills at pharmacies. And
Johnson helped Democrats pass an
anti-coal law this year that says util-
ities must serve half their customers’
demand with renewable energy by
2040.
Moore said incumbents can
remain popular in these districts
as they transition from red to blue
because voters often prefer centrists
in either party.
“Taking on Knute Buehler is a
thankless task,” Moore said of the
Bend Republican. “He’s very popular.
He’s also an avowedly moderate
Republican.”
———
In the Senate, voters in Southern
Oregon must choose between Repub-
lican Alan DeBoer of Ashland and
Democrat Tonia Moro of Medford to
replace Democrat Alan Bates, who
died in August.
Bates, who narrowly won his
first election to the seat in 2004, was
famed for his bipartisanship.
But last month, Bates’ widow took
Moro to task for “disappointing”
attack ads on DeBoer — suggesting
the difficulty Moro could face in
claiming the seat.
“It’s upsetting to hear of commit-
ments to follow in the shoes of Alan
Bates, without understanding that to
follow in his shoes, first and foremost,
means a campaign of civility and a
willingness to cross party lines for
better outcomes,” Laurie Bates wrote
in an opinion article in the Medford
Mail Tribune.
The ads in question criticized
DeBoer for his support of two devel-
opment projects during his time as
mayor of Ashland. Senate Majority
Leader Ginny Burdick, D-Portland,
said they simply pointed out “in a
very above-board way” DeBoer’s
record.
But Burdick also said losing a
seat in the Senate may not change the
dynamics in the chamber much. A
handful of Senate Democrats already
lean toward the center. And one,
Betsy Johnson of Scappoose, often
votes with Republicans on high-pro-
file bills.
———
So how might a new balance in
the Capitol affect what lawmakers
manage to accomplish?
“I think everybody knows we’ll be
looking at a transportation package,”
said Williamson, the House majority
leader.
Gov. Kate Brown’s attempt to
raise gas taxes in 2015 failed after
Republicans insisted on a repeal of
Oregon’s controversial low-carbon
fuels law. If House Democrats pick
up a seat, they could pass an increase
on a party-line vote.
But if they lose seats, they’d
have to work even harder to pick up
Republican support to reach a deal.
Even priorities that could pass with a
simple majority of lawmakers, such
as legislation for paid family leave or
a push to limit rent increases, could
face headwinds in that case.
McLane, the House minority
leader, said Republicans can force
Democrats to craft bills with bipar-
tisan appeal if they add seats in the
Legislature.
“The only thing that I have seen,
or anybody else has seen, that brings
Democrats to the table to build
consensus is when they don’t have the
votes to move something,” McLane
said. “One could say the only thing
standing between Oregonians and
the insatiable appetite of extreme left-
wing Democrats for more money are
House Republicans.”
———
Oregon Democrats insist they’re
not taking anything for granted,
despite their increasing registration
advantage.
The state has become a national
target for Republicans, however, who
have either partial or total control of
legislatures in 42 states.
“Republicans are at their strongest
position in legislatures in the history
of the party,” said Tim Storey, an
elections analyst with the National
Conference of State Legislatures.
“You can’t overstate it.”
That’s freed up national money
to swing races in Oregon, where
Republicans say they can remain
competitive in by picking candidates
who appeal to voters.
“By focusing on candidates who
offer real solutions and visions for
responsible governance, Republicans
have succeeded in putting former
Democrat strongholds back on the
map, making even the bluest states
competitive for GOP gains,” said
Ellie Hockenbury, communications
director for the Republican State
Leadership Committee.
But changing demographics loom
for the national party as much as
they do in Oregon. Does that mean
Republicans are destined to give back
whatever gains they make this year?
“That all depends,” Storey said,
“where the Republican Party goes
following this election and future
elections.”
BRIEFLY
Washington elector
says he won’t vote
for Clinton
WASHINGTON (AP)
— A Democratic elector in
Washington state said Friday
he won’t vote for Hillary
Clinton even if she wins
the popular vote in his state
on Election Day, adding a
degree of suspense when the
Electoral College affirms the
election results next month.
Robert Satiacum, a
member of Washington’s
Puyallup Tribe, supported
Bernie Sanders in the
Democratic primary. He
said he believes Clinton is
a “criminal” who doesn’t
care enough about American
Indians and “she’s done
nothing but flip back and
forth.”
He said he has wrestled
with what to do, but feels
that neither Clinton nor
Republican Donald Trump
can lead the country.
“She will not get my
vote, period,” he said in a
phone interview with The
Associated Press.
Dems across nation
sue GOP alleging
voter intimidation
NEWARK, N.J. (AP)
— Lawyers for Democrats
around the country are
filing lawsuits claiming
Republicans and the
campaign of GOP presidential
nominee Donald Trump
are pushing supporters to
intimidate and confront voters
on Election Day.
Trump has called on his
supporters to act as “election
observers” in certain areas of
the country to help prevent
fraud.
In Ohio, a federal judge
on Friday issued a temporary
restraining order against
Trump’s campaign and his
friend and informal adviser,
Roger Stone, barring
them from harassing or
intimidating Ohio voters
during Tuesday’s election.
Attorneys representing
the Democratic Party argued
Friday in New Jersey
court that the GOP was
coordinating with Trump to
intimidate voters, accusations
that the Republican Party
says are not true in that
state or in five other states
where Democrats are waging
similar battles.
Clinton sent
daughter email,
later classified
WASHINGTON (AP)
— The State Department
on Friday released a 2009
email chain that shows
then-Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton forwarding to her
daughter material that the
department classified last year.
At issue is a December
2009 email that President
Barack Obama’s trade
adviser, Michael Froman,
sent to senior White House
and State Department staff
members. After it made its
way up to Clinton, she sent
it to “Diane Reynolds,”
an email pseudonym for
Chelsea Clinton.
“See below,” Clinton
told her daughter. The
entire email chain has been
blacked out on confidential
grounds, the lowest level of
classification.
“Republicans are at their strongest position in legislatures
in the history of the party. You can’t overstate it.”
— Tim Storey, elections analyst
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