Page 6 The Skanner Seattle March 21, 2018
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What to Expect From a Resurgent Russia in Putin’s New Term
By Angela Charlton
Associated Press
MOSCOW — Vladimir
Putin now has a stron-
ger hold on Russia — and
stronger place in the
world — thanks to an
overwhelming mandate
for yet another term as
president.
His domestic oppo-
nents are largely re-
signed to another six
years in the shadows.
His foreign opponents
are mired in their own
problems, from Britain’s
messy exit from the Eu-
ropean Union to chaos
and contradiction in the
Trump administration.
Even widespread vot-
ing violations are unlike-
ly to dent Putin’s armor.
And accusations that
he meddled in the U.S.
election and sponsored
a nerve agent attack in
Britain have only bol-
stered his standing at
home.
Here’s a look at what to
expect from Putin’s next
six years in power, for
Russia’s rivals, neigh-
bors and its own 147 mil-
lion citizens.
NEW COLD WAR?
Relations
between
Russia and the West are
already at their lowest
level since the collapse of
the Soviet Union 26 years
ago.
Despite a friendly-ish
relationship with Presi-
dent Donald Trump, Pu-
tin’s new mandate gives
him little incentive to
seek entente with Wash-
ington, especially as the
investigation of alleged
Russian interference in
the 2016 U.S. election in-
tensifies.
Putin-friendly
lead-
ers have made gains in
recent Italian and Ger-
man elections. Western
countries are likely to
see more Russia-linked
hacking and propagan-
da aimed at disrupting
elections or otherwise
discrediting democracy
— including the U.S. mid-
term elections in Novem-
ber.
Since Putin’s domestic
popularity bumps when-
ever he stands up to the
West, expect more tough
“
SYRIA AND THE EX-
TREMIST THREAT
Russian-backed Syrian
forces helped rout the
Islamic State group from
Syria, and Putin argues
that Russia saved the day
in a conflict that had con-
founded U.S.-led forces
fighting against IS.
Now
those
Rus-
sian-backed Syrian forc-
es are closing in on the
last strongholds of West-
ern-backed rebel forces.
Viewing that as a geo-
political and military
victory over an illegal
Western-led interven-
tion, Russia is unlikely to
pull out of Syria anytime
soon.
Despite a friendly-ish re-
lationship with President
Donald Trump, Putin’s new
mandate gives him little in-
centive to seek entente with
Washington
talk from Putin the next
time he faces threats at
home, and bolder Rus-
sian vetoes at the U.N.
Security Council of any-
thing seen as threatening
Moscow’s interests.
His claim several weeks
ago that Russia has de-
veloped new nuclear
weapons that can evade
missile defenses clearly
showed Putin’s adamant
determination to boost
Russia’s power to intim-
idate.
An emboldened Putin
could position the resur-
gent Russian military as
a peacemaker in other
regional conflicts — for
example in Libya, where
Russia has oil interests
and where a disastrous
Western invasion seven
years ago left a lawless
state now seething with
extremists.
RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORS
To Russians, Putin’s
biggest victory in 18
years in power was
AP PHOTO/PAVEL GOLOVKIN
AP analysis examines Putin’s likely impact on Russia, Syria and the West — including U.S. relations
A person holds a banner of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Manezhnaya square, near Kremlin in
Moscow March 18. An exit poll suggests that Vladimir Putin has handily won a fourth term as Russia’s
president, adding six more years in the Kremlin for the man who has led the world’s largest country for
all of the 21st century.
annexing Crimea and
crushing Ukraine’s am-
bitions to move closer to
the EU and NATO.
Putin is frustrated at
the resulting U.S. and
EU sanctions but ap-
pears unwilling to make
concessions that would
bring them to an end.
Ukraine is split between
a volatile government in
Kiev and a Russia-backed
separatist region stuck
in a frozen but still dead-
ly conflict that serves Pu-
tin’s interests.
Moscow’s actions in
Ukraine sent a warning
signal to other countries
in Russia’s orbit that
reaching westward is
dangerous. And former
Soviet bloc states within
the EU are increasing-
ly drifting back toward
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Moscow, from Hungary
and Poland to the Czech
Republic and Slovakia.
FELLOW RUSSIANS
Putin’s new mandate
could theoretically hand
him the power to make
bold reforms that Russia
has long needed to raise
living standards and
wean itself from its oil
dependence.
But Putin has con-
vinced Russian voters
that drastic change is
dangerous, and that pro-
tecting the country from
threats takes precedence
over improving daily
life.
Experts predict he may
enact some changes like
expanding
affordable
housing and fighting cor-
ruption on a local level.
But less likely are big-
ger changes such as over-
hauling the pension sys-
tem, which is unpopular
among a strong Putin
voting base, or spending
cuts in the security sec-
tor, unpopular among
the ex-KGB friends in Pu-
tin’s entourage.
Russia has weathered a
two-year recession, and
inflation and the deficit
are low. But personal in-
comes have stagnated,
the health care system is
crumbling and corrup-
tion is rife.
HIS OWN FUTURE
The biggest question
for Russians over the
next six years is what
happens after that.
Putin is constitution-
ally required to step
down in 2024, but he
could change the rules
to eliminate term limits,
or anoint a malleable
successor and continue
to run things behind the
scenes.
Asked at an impromptu
news conference Sunday
night if he would seek the
presidency again in 2030,
when he would be eligi-
ble again, the 65-year-old
Putin snapped back: “It’s
ridiculous. Do you think
I will sit here until I turn
100?”
Opposition
leader
Alexei Navalny, Putin’s
most serious foe, will
face further pressure
from authorities as he
works to expose corrup-
tion and official lies.
Other Putin rivals
such as candidate Kse-
nia Sobchak and oli-
garch-turned-dissident
Mikhail Khodorkovsky
will try to gain a foothold
through upcoming local
elections and the parlia-
ment.
And members of Pu-
tin’s inner circle will be
jockeying for position
for the day when he is no
longer in the picture.
Putin may revive ef-
forts to promote artifi-
cial intelligence and oth-
er innovation as part of
a focus on the younger
generation, whose loyal-
ty he needs to ensure his
legacy outlives him.
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