Health & Wellness
You Take Care of Mom, but
Who Will Take Care of You?
T
he pool of family and friends to care
for Baby Boomers as they age into
their 80s will be less than half as deep
as it is today, according to a new report from
AARP. The report predicts the ratio of
potential family caregivers to elders need-
ing care will plummet from today’s seven
In Oregon, the
caregiver support ratio
in 2010 was 6.9
perent, and by 2050 it
is projected to drop to
2.8 percent
caregivers for each person over age 80 to
fewer than three caregivers per elderly per-
son in 2050. “The Aging of the Baby Boom
and the Growing Care Gap” from the AARP
Public Policy Institute also anticipates that
the dearth of family caregivers projected for
2030 to 2050 will intensify the emotional,
physical and financial costs borne by future
caregiving family members and friends.
“More than two-thirds of Americans believe
they will be able to rely on their families to
meet their needs when they need long term
care,” said Lynn Feinberg, AARP Senior
Policy Analyst and one of the report’s
authors, “but this confidence is likely to
deflate when it collides with the dramatical-
ly shrinking availability of family
caregivers in the future.”
“As the number of people over the age of
80 increases in the next 20 years, the num-
ber of people in the primary caregiving
years will remain flat,” the report
states. Meanwhile, in 2050, there will be
three times as many people age 80 and older
as there are today. As a result, by 2050, the
caregiver support ratio which was 7.2 in
2010 when Boomers were in their peak
caregiving years, is projected to drop to 2.9
percent when the boomers will have
reached their eighties. According to the
report, “In just 13 years, as the Baby
Boomers age into their 80’s, the decline in
the caregiver support ratio will shift from a
slow decline to a free fall.”
The caregiver support ratio in each of the
50 states and District of Columbia is also
expected to experience declines similar to
the national trend. In Oregon, the caregiver
support ratio in 2010 was 6.9 perent, and by
2050 it is projected to drop to 2.8 per-
cent. “Rapidly increasing numbers of
people in advanced old age and shrinking
families to provide support to them
demands new solutions to financing and
delivering long term services and supports,”
said Feinberg.
“The Aging of the Baby Boom and the
Growing Care Gap” calculates the avail-
ability of caregivers by dividing the number
of people in the most common caregiving
age range (those ages 45-64) by the number
of older people most at risk of needing long
term services and supports (those ages
80+). The former group reflects the demo-
graphics of today’s average caregivers, the
latter is the population likely to have some
kind of disability and need help with daily
activities.
The complete report, “The Aging of the
Baby Boom and the Growing Care Gap: A
Look at Future Declines in the Availability
of Family Caregivers,” can be found at
www.aarp.org.
October 16, 2013
The Portland Skanner Page 9