BY NEWS SPEQAUSTS OK
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
A CRITICAL YEAR brornis
ing momentous events is
the prospect for 1948.
Rough going is, In prospect I
diplomatically, economically ,
and politically. But the outlook
is bright in science.
More food, but more shortages
higher prices, ' but possibly Tes
labor trouble are among the para
doxes on the horizon.
This will be a presidential elec
tion year and that factor is beinp
felt jat home and abroad.
Hre is the likely shape u
things to come..
I ' ;
FOREIGN AFFAIRS:
Crisis Abroad,
But War Unlikely
IN THE field of international af
1 fairs, 1948 seems destined to tx
one of history's,cruciaI years, al
though not likelr to oroduce a
general war.
There may be a lull in Russia'!
propaganda during the U S elec
tion campaign to avoid the pos
sibility that the ensuing ad minis
tration might go into offic- in an
atmosphere suggesting a popular
mandate for a continued ''tough'
policy toward Communism.
But the Communist light to sab
otage the European Recover)
Program will continue.
Vital decisions regarding the fu
ture of Germany can be expected
The probabilities are for no for
mai "separate peace."
The United States will become
more involved in the business of
bolstering other countries against
the Communists. A full-fledged
program for China is In the cards.
China, wary of what might hap
pen if. she aggravates Russia into
supplying more help to Commu
nist rebels, probably will continue
to block a formal Japanese peace
conference without Russian par
.tieipaticn. Russia, standing to
gain little or nothing from, a
treaty, will stick to her demand
that it be handled by the foreign
ministers.
The UJ. "Little Assembly"
may get around the Russian boy
cott by calling special sessions of
the General Assembly.
Jewish emigration to Palestine
probably .will have serious reper
cussions. The winter will further strain
. the socialist government in Brit
ain, and a coalition substitute or
return of the Conservatives to
power is not out of the question.
POLITICS:
Hot Fight Seen
For Presidency
ABOUT the only political fore
casts that can be made with
virtual certainty seven months
before the
eiore int ;
reside ntial . , I
ominating iwf
onventioiw W
ri.TheRepub
presidential
nom
CO
are
licans have
horse race on
their hands
with no leu
than six candi
date possibili
ties Jockeying
tor position.
2. President Truman has the
Democratic nomination if he wants
it
3. It's not going to be any walk
away. Republicans were saying eight
after their sweep in the 1946 con
gressional e lections that they
could win-with almost anybody jb
1948. They've changed their tune.
Not necessarllyin order of
strength, the six.GOP prospects at
Philadelphia will be: Dewey, Taft.
Stajsen, Warren. Eisenhower and
: MacArthur.
Dewey, 1944 standard bearer
and unannounced a to 1948, is be
ginning to speak out on some im
portant issues. Taft. Stassen and
Warren are avowed candidates.
Eisenhower and MacArthur may
be classed as receptive.
Prices will still be sufficiently
high to be the big Issue. Whom the
voters -will blame is debatable
Money in the pocket usually helps
the party holding the white
House. Money in the pocket, but
t with many necessities of life near-
ly out cf reach of the average man.
may mean another story.
. If the Republicans win the presi
dency next year ;they4 no doubt
would keep control of the Senate
and House. It's more of a question
' "whether the Deiytocrats could re-,
gain Congress while keeping the
white House.
THE ECONOMY:
Prices Climb;
Shortages Grow
PRICES wiH be higher and many
shortages will continue in 1948.
The course of the fight against
inflation, the fate of the Marshal
plan and the shape of the new tax
program all axe variable factors
which will affect 1948.
Many feel that a recession Is in
the cards, and at least the threat
of a perhaps serious depression.
Authorities in their respective
fields see these things ahead for
1948:
PRICES: Increases already an
nounced for automobiles, textiles,
includine clothing and earoetine.
many foods, tires and other rubber
products and a great variety of
terns made with steel, including
refrigerators, washing machines
and other appliances. New round
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TRUMAN RENOMINATED: Th President i ."ZJ ', JOE IOU1S KO'D?
can run again if he wants. But he will Tt V"- r J J ' Tha champion, :
have a hot election fight. U "Z Ul f Vl': growing old, mayl J J
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TELEVISION BOOMi In the
"video" will come into its
of wage increases could be felt
throughout the economy.
SHORTAGES: Continuing In
nearly everything made with steel
Automobile makers expect to be
behind orders most if not all of
the year Appliance m a k e r s in
same position. J3 rain and some
other foods ana in many sections
gasoline, fuel oil and other oil
roducts will be short. Many tex
iles. particularly decorators'
items, will remain short
HOUSING: A five per cent gain
in all residential building over
1947 but only one per cent, gain in
one-family and two-family dwell
ings. Apartment house construc
tion expected to rise 14 per cent
over 1947. Prices higher, at least
for first part of the year. About
70.000 new prefabricated homes
will be built; Shortage in all hous
ing will remain acute.
STEEL.: At the very roots of the
economy, stel will continue short.
Production increase of 1.000.300
tons over 1947 anticipated, but de
mand will be for 66,500,000 tons
a g a i n a t shipments of 62,000,000
tons, a peace-time record.
LABOR:
Industrial Peace
Hinges on an IF
THE new year probably will not
be a big year of strikes.
It's true there are uncertainties
and trouble spots. The cost of liv
ing looms importantly in the pic
ture. Wage demands will be heard.
Court battles will be fought over
the Taft-Hartley act. John L.
Lewis's soft coal contract will ex
pire June 30.
But leaders of both sides If
business continues at a high level
will have particular reasons to
meet one another halfway.
AN ENCOURAGING SIGN:
Strikes have been virtually ruled
out in the steel industry, which is
usually a wage pace-Setter among
manufacturing industries.
The two-year steel contracts run
until April 30. 1949. The CIO
Steelworkers Union has said these
contracts "definitely assure peace
in the industry for two years"
even though they can be reopened
for wage negotiations after
April i. .
Union leaders will try to chan
nel the main energies and emo
tions of their members into the
1948 political campaigns. They
will seek to elect a friendlier Con
gress. A big uncertainty la the cost of
living. To what extent will unions
press for wage increases because
of high prices?
Government officials are ex
pressing more concern over rising
wages and prices than over the
prospect of strikes.- P
'
AGRICULTURE:
Farmers Watching
The Weathervan?
THE weather will have more
than anything else to say
about what American agriculture
does in 1948.
Agriculture
will ' have a
market for all
the food, with
a few possible
exceptions
that it can pro
duce. ' t- ,T , ,
Farmers plan to plant larger
acreages. They have more tractors
and other machinery. The fertile
izer supply will be a little larger.
There well be no critical shortages
of workers.
And they have the incentive.
Agricultural department officials
predict a continuation of favor
able prices.
But drought took hold of the
rich wheat producing area of the
southwest last fall. As a conse
quence, there was a serious de-
new year
own.
cline In fall seeding of winter
wheat. i
But despite this setback, it Is
still possible to harvest another
bumper wheat crop providing
there is enough winter and early
spring rain.
It was the weather that hit the
1947 corn crop, first by a wet,
cool spring and later, by dryness
during the growing season.
As a result, the corn crop
dropped 25 percent below 1948 to
create a shortage in feeds which
wilt force farmers to lower their
production of livestock for 1948.
Barring widespread drought and
an tmforseen sharp drop m farm
prices, agriculture's net income in
1948 should about match the 1947
record of $18,000,000,000.
AVIATION:
Supersonic Speed
Tops 1948 Show
AVIATION will mark 1948 as
the year man raced sound and
won.
Researchers
will pace: (1)
What looks like
a new high in
air transporta
tion, (2) anoth
er tough and
for some com
panies a deci
sive year in air
craft manufac
. turing, (3) a
further shake-
. down to tnor
mal" levels in personal flying,
(4) a vast experience in flying
military jet planes, (5) reshuffling
of the government's aeronautical
agencies, (6) continued swelling
of the number of pilots and civil
aircraft .
Underlying most of that Is the
development of a new national
aviation policy.
compared with 1847, relatively
few new types of planes will be
announced The big outpouring of
new designs conceived during the
war is about ended.
However, it will be year of
new planes on the airways, with
the first' operational flights of the
Boeing stratocruiser and the Con
vair 240, along with increasing
use of the Martin 202, the Lock-
IK I h " '
,. m,i.i I, ,.,I,.,J M
A YEAR PACKED WITH
APNewtfeatures
TCOR those who like, to get their historic perspective meas
V tired in round figures, 1948 offers many diverse anniversaries.
One hundred years ago,
around the New Year's corner:
Gold was discovered in California. Jan. 24. touching? off the
famous rush westward by prairie schooner and around Cape Horn
by clipper ship. The "Communist Manifesto" was published the same
month in Europe by Karl Marx and Frederic Engels, sparking a
chain of events still reverberating around the world.
niexiee eeaen Texas, Arizona and California to the u. 5. tor
$15,S0t,00S en Feb. 2. The great revelation of 1848 began in
Europe with Louis Philippe forced to abdicate, Feb. 24, when
the second French republic was proclaimed.
Another throne tottered when Prince Metternic was overthrown
in Austria, Mar. 13, and four days later Italian patriots revolted in
Milan. Within five days rebellion flared in Berlin.
The Associated Press was formed by six New York news
' papers In May and the Merican War was ended with the treaty
of Guadalupe. May , IS. Wisconsin was admitted as 50th state,
May 29. The cornerstone of the Washington monument was laid
. July 4. The first American woman's . rights convention met in
Seneca Falls, N. X, July 19.
Oregon was organized as a territory, Aug. 14. Lt Ulysses S. Grant,
26, married Julia T. Dent of St. Louis, Aug. 22. James; A. Garfield,
15, began driving mules along Pennsylvania and Ohio CanaL Old
"rough and ready"; Gen. Zachary Taylor, here of the Mexican war
and "no-platform" nominee of the Whies. was elected President of
U. S., Nov. 7. Louis Napoleon was
four years, on uec ZQ. ,
Among Its many golden anniversaries. It 4k will mark the
aasaxe of exactly Si years since: '
New York became a corporate
Ksft fivfki iliemvatrswl 'Mflinm
vui iw uuvviwitu a wrnui
(Charles L. Dodgson). author of
the battleship Maine just after
' "i
PRICES UP: Housewives V' , "
Forecasters for 1943
THIS SYMPOSIUM is compiled by the following news
specialists of The Associated Press: J. M. Roberts, Jr.,
foreign affairs; Harold Oliver, politics; Harry T. Mont
gomery, economics; Max Hall, labor; Ovid A. Martin, agri
culture; Howard W. Blakeslee, science; James J. Strebig,
aviation; Robert Geiger, education; Dorothy Roe, women;
W. G. Rogers, arts; Bob Thomas, movies; C. E. Butterfield,
television; Jack O'Brian, entertainment; Frank Eck, sports-
heed postwar Constellations and
the Douglas DC-6.
The airlines expect to carry
nearly 15.000.000 passengers
more than a million over 1947 on
domestic runs, and to increase in
ternational air travel by nearly 40
per cent.
Manufacturers expect to turn
out about 1,400 to 1,500 military
planes, about the same as in 1947.
The output of personal planes
will likely fall below the 15,000
built in 1947.
The federal airport building
program will have its first full
year, with about 500 projects.
SCIENCE:
Atomic Power
Leads the Parade
NINETEEN - FORTY - EIGHT
should be the first year of
atomic powerin a nuclear-electric
plant at Oak Ridge, Tenn.
This pilot plant will make
enough electricity so that engi
neers can blue-print the costs of
atomic energy. It also will answer
roblems of safety dangers not
ikely from atomic explosions, but
from radioactive atoms.
Backing up the Oak Ridge ex
periment are . others using dif
ferent materials, such as heavy
water, and concentrated Pluto
nium, instead of uranium. If and
when concentrated atomic metals
can be safely used for power, the
already small weights of atomic
fuel will be further reduced.
The new drug, streptomycin, Is
the following events were lust
proclaimed president of France for
city of five boroughs on Jan. 1:
nlisifitm In sWftst Insert ap9fM11
uviviumiu m a siimi w w
Alice in Wonderland, died, Jan. 14;
taps, exploded and sank in Havana
BUMPER CROP YfAR: farmers again will find markets for
likely to become important in
treating tuberculosis of the lungs.
No one looks for streptomycin to
be a cure, but the new drug has
demonstrated an ability to cause
temporary improvement
Cancer will see more drugs
tried out than ever before, al
though no drug has yet-been dis
covered that has more than tem
porary good effects.
Chemistry expects the indus
trialization of the new: fluor-car-bon.
This is a combination of
fluorine and carbon, in which the
fluorine replaces hydrogen. .It
makes an oil safer and tougher
than any hydrocarbon. These oils
will stand more heat and more
pressure and may permit ma
chines to run al higher speeds and
temperatures. j
THE ARTS:
Creative Hopes
Spring Eternal
WILL 1948 give us at last the
great American novel? Will
we hear the symphony we've
waited for all our lives, or the
soprano with the voice of our
dreams, and face and figure to
match? Will some artist paint the
incomparable masterpiece?
The answer to these questions
will probably be no, as it has been
for oher years, i
Critics will continue to hope,
however. Publishers, impresarios
and gallery directors will be hope
ful, toOv Masterpieces mean mon
ey in their pockets. They did
FAMOUS ANNIVERSARIES
harbor, Feb. 15; Emile Zola was
French for reviving the Dreyfus case with "T Accuse."
U. 8. armed ferees mobilized against Spain, March 12; U. 8.
Navy's first submarine made its first dive. Mar. 17; the first re
eerded sale ef an antamobile was nude en "Apr. 1 for S 1,000.
Andrew S. Bewan landed on the Cuban coast Apr. 25 to carry the
"message to Garcia." U. S. declared war on Spain, Apr. 25; A dm.
. Dewey destroyed the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay, May L
U. S. won the battles of San Juan Hill and 'SI Caney. July 1. Cant
Joshua Slocum completed a round 'the world trip, alone in a 36-foot
boat, July 3. Peace was formally proclaimed between U. S. and Snam.
Aug. 12. Hawaii was annexed by
niuiemuui was emnronea ai uie nague, aepi, o. ine treaty wun.
Spain was signed Dec. 10, U. S. taking Puerto Ilico. the Philippines
and Guam. I
Among cities to which next year will re important as an
anniversary, are Detroit, which was first visited bj LaSalle In
1S48; Nashville, which was incorporated in 1848; Sacramento,
Calir., which was laid out in 1848, and Worcester. Mass, which
received its charter in the same year.
For a broader view of 1948 in relation to history, consider that
300 years before, English Royalists rose in arms to try to free
Charles I and were defeated by
da uama found an au-water route
IX led 'the Sixth Crusade against the Turks; 2,000 years before,
Caesar put down a revolt of the Gauls and Cleopatra then an entic
ing 17. inherited a half share in the Egyptian throne.
The year will be the 200th anniversary df Ben rai.klin's experi
ments with electricity; the lOOtn anniversary 'A the College of the
City of New York, University of Mississippi nd University of Wis
consin: the 50th anniversary of the National Institute of -Arts and
Letters, National Society of Daughters of Founders and Patriots of
America, Order of Eagles and DePaul University; the 10th anni
versary of the CIO. National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis and
U. S. Trotting Association. - t .
And according to Vreeland's anniversary a tntansc, 1948 will
mark the 5th birthday of Katharine Cornell, George Jewel, Pan!
Robeson, Gene Tuntey, Beatrice Lniie, Albert B. "Happy"
Chandler, Ernest Hemingway, Walter Fidgeon and Grade Fields.
pretty well in 1947. despite a sum
mer slump in publishing.
But the arts, much more than
the artists, are very sensitive to
taxes, pay envelope! and living
costs. Most people stop buying
books, concert tickets and pic
tures before they will give up
automobiles, candy or the extra
parlor maid.
Creative work goes on, however,
and there may be more of it next
year than ever before.
EDUCATION:
Free College
Drive Begins
GOVERNMENT advisers are
proposing revolutionary
changes in American education to
five schooling
o millions of
more students
at public ex
pense. These are
aimed at pro
ducing t h o u
sands of more
trained leaders to keep America
ahead in all branches of science,
and educating the "little people"
who dont want to be leaders
how to get more happiness out of
life.
The recommendations of dozens
of educators who have partici
pated m postwar studies include
extension of free public schooling
into the first two years of college
and enrollment of more than twice
as many students in college as in
prewar years.
The President's Commission on
Higher Education, composed of 28
educators and public leaders, is
recommending that 4,000,000 stu
dents be enrolled in colleges by
1960, with 600,000 post graduates.
The commission is recommend
ing that $120,000,000 be made im
mediately a v a i 1 a b 1 e to finance
scholarships in the school year
1948-'49. Each year thereafter, it
says, undergraduate scholarships
should be available for 20 per cent
of non-veteran students. M a x i -mum
scholarships would be 8800;
the average $500.
But the educators believe there
must be more emphasis on stu
dents who never intend to go to
college or enter a skilled trade
These courses would provide guid-
condemned u Jail Feb. 23 by the
the U. S. he same day. Queen,
Cromwell; .450 years before, Vasco
to India; 700 years before. Laws
everything they fan plant.
hunting, budgeting, use of ItLn t
tima ivt ,r.niklitlM
amma I. mm A 11,. ...A
WOMEN:
Career Girl Bows
To Femininity
WOMEN achieved the "new
look" in 1947 (not without a
struggle) and now are prepared
io maxe mt
most of their
new elegance
iathe first Leap
Year since the
war.
Th mitlnnk
xor 1S4S on me - t,-.-v.
distaff side
seems to be an accent on feminini
ty, not only in clothes but in man
ners. The days of the strident
"emancipated woman" as well as
the comradely and efficient career
firl of war years are passing,
fomen will do just as earnest and
important work in 1948, but they
will make less noise about it.
Having won their place in the
fields once open only to men, wo
men no longer have to fight so
bitterly to protect their rights.
They can relax.
The college girls who will be
graduated in 1948 are less worried
about women's rights and will go
into practically all the professions.
Women have their serious in
terests for 1948. They are deter
mined to help avert another war
if that is possible. They do not
want to send their husbands, sons
and sweethearts into an atomic
war.
Women's interests for 1948 are
as wide as the world, but their
hearts are safe at home
TELEVISION:
Prices May Ease
In Video' Boom
TELEVISION could very weU
look upon 1948 as its first
"boom year." The Dast year saw
stations springing up in new cities
and manufacturers getting receiv
ers on the market in impressive
numbers.
A nation-wide television net
work is taking shape, with indi
cations that the middle west may
be added by new Years 1949.
Increased production and com
petition are expected to have
somewhat oi a leveling enect on
prices of receivers now ranging
from around szoo to S2,40a
The number of .stations rew
from eight to 18 in 1947 and may
see 20 added by mid-year. A to
tal of 53 others nave construction
permits, with 43 in addition hav
in license annlications on file.
St Louis. Detroit. Ba-'timore,
Milwaukee and Cincinnati have
been added to the television pio
neers of New York, Schenectady,
Philadelphia, Chicago and Los An-
!?. .
with probably zuu.uw receivers
now being tuned in, upwards of a
million more are forecast for
1948.
ENTERTAINMENT!
Deflation Booked
For Broadway Run
THE Theater has slimmeu down
its activity from the careless.
inflated conditions of the war
vears. when it was literally easy
to get money to back the worst
dramatic stinkers '
Despite a tighter economy, the
theater is better artistically, with
more admirable shows on the
Broadway boards than in many
a year. .
The future is shiny and encour
Sing, with almost all the fine
lywrights. even those who had
Z.8?.0 thf cast:Kreen forests of
, Hollywood, reading new scripU. :
I Night club business will con '.
unue generally to be "brutal."
, ivhich is the trade term for a
: night club slump. Waiters are. .
snow blind from looking sat un-
broken .expanses of white table- -I
cloths. '
' ResUurant business will con
tinue its gaily inflated jog so long
as food shortages continue, high .
profits keep falling into playful,,
pockets and spirits remain high.
One successful New York opfra-"
tor is. opening a new steak house' .
for the "medium priced" trade"
because there "isn't a placej on '
Broadway where you can get a
$2.50 steak." ... : T
Broadwav movi mrsoup
ready have felt public resentment '
against high movie house ad mis- e"
sions, in one instance promptly '
lowering a S2.u tanti tor a sineie-
vie when patrons stayed away. "5
rhe incredible amounts paid to
ge stars (as high as S40.000 .
ek to Frank Sinatra and Danny-
ye), have been adjusted sharo- '- -
ly. Night club salaries, which hit'"
their height with $10,000 a week
to Milton Berle, have tilted back ...
toward $5,000 to $700 a weekvt
if your name is big. . -
The war is over, and so Is the.:
gleeful Broadway party.
TOrMoyiESR..
Gals, Gags, Gats
To Cut Film Costs
HOLLYWOOD faces another
perilous year in 1948.
In 1947, the U. S. motion pic
'ture. industry
grappled with
its most difficult
problems since
the advent of
sound movies.
A "shopping"
film audience
d'pJ2i?.?trI
T9 eVSltiatC
their program
ming. Pyramid
ing eosts
brought new
terrors to the film makers. '
The crushing blow came when ,
the British slapped a 75 per -ent ,
tax on American films ar d other
foreign countries followed suit
with financial restrictions. ,
Unless there are diplomatic de
velopments, film companies will
have to depend on the American
market lor their profits. , This
means that expensive flops will
have to be avoided.! In fact, the
traditonal multi - million - dollar
epics will become a scarce com
modity The order olthe year will
be for wisely planned, tightly-
aimed money makers.
The comins -ear will find stu- -
dios searching desperately for so
lutions to these problems. Per
sonnel cut - backs will probably ,
continue. New methods will have
to be found for cutting costs.
The year will mark the revival
of the B picture, abandoned dur
ing the moneyed era. Producers
are discovering that the lower
budget films, though much ma
ligned, can nevertheless Lring in
much-needed revenue.
The screen menu for 1948 will ,
reflect the producers' belief that
the public wants "entertainment."
This means a fare of gals, gags
and gats.
SPORTS:
Baseball Crowds
May Hit New Peak
THE sports picture of 1948 look
bright
There is a possibility that the
major baseball leagues may draw
20,000.000 fans for the first time.
However, some minor leagues
may fold.
The Boston 'Red Sox. disap
pointing favorites to retain the
American league championship
last season, are expected to bound
back. In the NaUonal League the
Brooklyn Dodgers will be favor
ites to repeat For the world
Series, at this early date it looks
like the Red Sox.
In view of Jersey Joe Walcott's
surprise showing against heavy
wcigni dwudi vnmmptoa uv
Louis, many contenders will chal
lenge the champion. Louis ap
pears ready to be taken. He may
Kt by Walcott in a return fight
t it is questionable whether ho
can beat uus leinevicn. ugnt
heavyweight champion. Lesne-
vich hits harder than waicoti, is
better boxer, and Louis has
shown that he is vulnerable to
a rignt to me jaw.
Horse racing figures to show a
slight decline in attendance and
wagering. But both Armed and
Stymie are likely to move their
earnings above the million dollar
mark. The Kentucky Derby ap
pears to be at the mercy oi Calu
met Farm's Citation, a Bull Lea
colt
In football Notre Dame, again
will be the team to beat .In the
toDsv-turvv Drofessional ranks.
the National Football League and
the Ail-America ionierence win
continue to remain at odds with
both the Brooklyn Dodgers and
Chicago Rockets of the confer
ence either disbanding or moving
their franchises to other cities.
jimmy Demaret and Ben Ho
gan again should head America's
touring golfers. ! -
America is expected to carry
off honors in the seventh Winter
Olympic Games at St Moritz,
Switzerland, Jan. 30 through Feb.
8 end -also in the fourteenth Olym
piad July 29-Aug. 13 in London.
American tennis will lose a lot
of prestige including the Davis
Cup now that Jack Kramer has
turned professional. The national
championship may go to Frank
Parker or Ted Schroeder.
ar- f mtt
r
-7 fi' vTSSr
4