'-- PAGE TWO :' ' ' , " : j .Tho OSEGOU STATESEI&It, gfelau Qr , -
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NEW YORK,-Pee. Sl-T-Ameri-
'aan mllTa any) rinnrlM will turn
f vut TOlajn of goods breaking
F -all past booming records In 1941
that Is the almost unanimous
prediction of economists, bus!
Bess analysts and forecasters as
the nation plunges into the New
t Tear...
It U not a difficult prediction
to make, ther aajr, aince the pro
duction, records of glittering 1929
were broken In 1940, as measured
by federal reserre board statis
tics.
And It is not Improbable, in the
opinion of some, that national in
come may break orer the golden
peaks of fabulous 1929.
- .The reserve - board's index of
.production for 1940 Is expected
to show an average of about 121
per cent of. the 1935-39 average,
but' for December alone It esti
mated around 13 S. The 1929 av
erage was lit.
.' Total national Income for 1940
Is placed at about 174,000.000.
; 000. nearly 11 per cent under
1929, hut the. general price level
the past year has been about 16
per cent below that' of 11 years
ago. ,
New High 4m. Income Likely
If industrial output is kept at
'. an accelerating clip in 1941, and
if the price level, lately inclined
to rise, . works higher, it is not
, beyond the realm of . probability,
soraer analysts, say, that a record
. -dollar level of national Income
might be reached.
Yet all quality predictions by
- pointing.' out' that the current
business cycle Is fired by the bu
llosa of , British and American
' arms spending, and ' that It may
: be drastically influenced by the
".fortunes of war.
Defeat of. Britain, many say.
- would cat off British buying here
but presumably the United States
..would accelerate even the present
defense measures to protect Itself
' In - a totalitarian world. British
arms orders 'would no doubt be:
euicklr taken over. Few think,
: however,: that such a world-shak- i
ut vpaec tn the balance of power
Xotiay - Thar.
CoatiaHeas. Today. 1-11 IV M.
1 :
Also Km an-! Short
LP
DP
.'-.so A :
. t ;:'";- ,
I i JTeataw f
Norwegian Sing
could be" Weathered 'without dls-
tarblnf repercriasfons. ' ,
Real Peace riot, Anticipated
A British victory, if achieved.
is generaly expected to take time.
What some refer to as an "out
break of peace" is not figuring
much In calculations, for any
peace that the forecasters can
foresee in the near future, they
say, would presumably be an,
armed truce. In which arms mak
ing would go on apace.
A real peace with disarmament
would bring up the vast problems
of transition from wartime to
peacetime economy. A great shift
ing of jobs and changing over of
factories. But behind it, some
point out, would be the enormous
pent-up. wants of a half billion
Europeans long on short rations.
Rehabilitation would present
bugei problems of financing but
many are hopeful that m e a n a
would-be found.
Assuming continuance of the
present background at heme and
abroad, business analysts are In
clined ta look for a levelling off
of - the business trend over the
next few months, on the ground
that' steel and machine tool are
working at capacity, and it will
take time to bring additional ca
pacity into production.
Season 'ly adjusted business
index fignr mostly are calcu
lated on th. basis of a normal
expansion In the early months
of the year, so if production mere
ly holds at present levels, these
index figures would decline a few
points. Some think it may be sev
eral months-before sUch an Indi
cator as the federal reserve index
of Industrial production shows
further striking advances. But
with the government now giving
intensive attention to creating ad-
Jobs for IVIillions fo
As Industry Speeds Arms Assembly;
Non-Defense Work to Increase, too
WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 (AP) American labor stood
on the threshhold of another new year today facing; the pros
pect of employment for millions in an industrial machine
geared up for national defense, and hearing union leaders de
clare their support of the defense program. -
The absorption of from 5,000,000 to 6,000,000 workers
by industries producing war . ma-
terlals and the ordinary commodi
ties tor domestic Consumption has
been - predicted ! by government
statisticians for 1941. :
4 Miniow Needed, PefesMo ':
About 4.000.000 workers, these
statisticians nay. will be needed
to produce the, aircraft, fighting
ships, guat, powder,, buildings,
food ;and clothing contemplated
tor, national defease and aid to
Britain. . ; " . .:" , ,f.
- At the same- tlme; the expand
ing payrolls In these Industries
are expected to stlmalate employ
ment : In ; the toon-defense field , to
such an extent that Jobi will W
provided" tor; another ; l.ott.Otfr
worker. r - - -vA;-.
- AFL, President ' William Green
predicted in a New Year- state
ment that the Impact ot arma
ment bonding on Industry would
create i.OOO.OOO jobs and the
army: of unemployed, he added,
"win have practlcallr disappear-
CIO 'Preatdeat " Phm Morray
saw 1141 as the year of "great ex
pansion of organlxatloa activity
on behalf of 'labor and of the nation.-,
r. -;
."The millions of workers who
Baakon flee German Adolf Hitter, visit occupied
ditlonal casaciti. and ueinc all
neglected existing capacity
,i tsroogh sub-contractiag, as much
as six months may see big gains.
Priorities May Affect Total
The nation's aggregate bus!
ness may be held down somewhat
if it is found necessary to use
priorities, to hold back materials
from normal production, to make
them available to arms plants.
President Roosevelt, in his ad
dress to the nation Dec. 29, men
tioned this possibility.
Meanwhile, some 2,000,000
workers have been given em
ployment In the industrial pickup.
of 1940 and many more are ex
pected to find employment in
1941. Mounting payrolls may
well quicken the already greatly
expanded demand for consumers
goods. In the past several weeks,
wages and prices have shown a
moderate tendency to rise. This,
the government is watching close
ly, hoping to prevent any disturb
ing upward spiral of prices and
costs.
Taxes Cat Profits
If there is nothing of the car
nival spirit about the defense
boom in business that character
ized 4.929, it Is because It is gen
erally recognised as deadly ser
ious business. Taxes are taking a
big slice of business profits and
are expected to take more. Presi
dent Roosevelt has expressed the
objective of doing the defense job
without creating a single million
aire: In Wall street the stock mar
ket ends 1940 well under the lev
els of a year ago. Yet some antici
pate that the wages of capital
may improve a little, if Interest
rates Increase somewhat later on,
as billions are borrow to finance
the defense effort.
The world situation has hit the
Come in 1941
make up the CIO come from th
basic mass production industries,"
he said. "Upon their labor and
their loyalty depends the produc
tion of all that la most-essential
industrial stability and nation
al defense.
, -As .patriotic 'Americana, thee
worker la these baste industries
desire to make their fullcontrl
bution t . the . Welfare : of their
country and the defense of Its in
atHtttlon.' ' T ' -.Leaders
BespeaJc Xabor lace
i Murray said the CIO's collect
Ire ' agreements had preserved
"substantial. Industrial . peace by
providing orderly- democratic
means tor the adjustment of dif
ferences. - r---
On th - Sam question. Green
said not a ilngl strike by aa AFL
union -"impeded the defease pro
gram and added: !-..;..
- "We are preaiaa- for wider and
'even more eff ecttva aelf-dlaelpUae
amonjr oar organisations, we are
preparing to assume new burdens
and- sacrifice 'Whenever, neces
sary, but . we also Insist. on our
democratic rights j. : .'
........ . - V ;. ' .' .'
New Year
farmer by cutting off important
foreign markets for such things
as cotton, tobacco and citrus
traits, but even so, farm income
for 1940 is estimated to have
reached about $9,000,000,000,
including government payments,
a total about $500,000,000 over
1939. Growing payrolls in indus
trial centers should help produc
ers of meats, dairy products, and
other foodstuffs.
Rites Conducted
For Theron Field
WACONDA Funeral services
for Theron H. Field, 52, were held
Monday from Clough - Bariick
chapel. He died of pneumonia
December 27 at a Salem hospital.
Mrs. Frank Thompson of this
community- was soloist. Pallbear
ers, were Henry Stafford, Hug
Crook, Frank Thompson, Frank
Felton, Ed Belleque and Bruno
Miietta. Interment was In Clag
gett cemetery.
Re Is survived by the widow;
four sons, Harvey of Camp Mur
ray, Wash.; Eugene, Harold and
Carl of this community; one
daughter. Elsie and his parents,
Mr. and Mrs. Hardin W. Field of
White Salmon, Wash.
Monoxide Is Used
By Portland Man
PORTLAND. Dec. 21-PV-Po-
lice found the body of a man iden
tified as Howard E. Yambert, 41,
Portland. In an automobile on the
lower Columbia river highway
near Rocky Point Monday.
The car's motor was running
and a hose carried monoxide fumes
from the exhaust pipe to the In
side of the auto, State Officed I.
Ej Campbell said.
Call Board
GRAND
Today Paul Muni, Gene Tierney
In "Hudson's Bay."
! STATS .
Today Fred MacMurray, Patricia
Morrison In "Rangers of For
tune." Bob Burn. Una Merkel
in "Comin Round the MOun-
- tain., , - - , -
HOLLYWOOD .
Today Ann Shirley. James Elli
son in "Aane of Windy Pop
lars." -George O'Brien.in "Prai
rie Law." v -v : '
Friday Three Mesqulteers la
?Covered Wagon Pays." Fay
t7ray, Charles Lang Jn "Wlid-
c SLSnfORB
Today Errol Flynn, Olivia De
Havllland In. "San U Fe Trail."
Lucille Ball. Richard Carlson' la
fToo Many Girl." ".'a"-V:
! ; currroL, - V ; .
Todsy-iw- C. Fields In ; "X la
Baok Dlck";wlth Una Merkel.
' Jack Uolt la "The Great-Plane
' KoberyJS-V-'- "
Saturday Jam .jCagney, Pat
D'Brlea; In ."Her Comes t th
' Navy. Roger Pryor. Aniu
Louise lm' "Glamour, for Sale."
" LTJIRTY- ' . -
Today Boris Karloff In Doomed
" !to. Die. Johnnie Downs. Con-
- nli;ore la "Uoh It Off."
nday Roy Rogers In "Young
Buffalo B11L" Richard Arlen In
- THot Steel" with Andy Devlna.
Pari
ltalg9 Germang, and Japan sign economic and mtlitarg poet.
V TOOK A FRIEND'S
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