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About The Oregon statesman. (Salem, Or.) 1916-1980 | View Entire Issue (Jan. 1, 1927)
ofiSiisMejss Leaders1 Wmecasts-foi Year 1927 timism Two Successive Years of Prosperity Close With Stock and Bond Prices at Highest Levels Ever Recorded, So Believers' in Cycle Theory Cautious Low Pricey of Commodities Cause Some Concern; But Danger From Inftated Prices, High Inventories and Over Expanded Credit Are' Absent Stability in Banking, Good Supply of Crude Oil, .Surplus of Resources Volume of Manufactures, Transportation, Demand, All Point to Another Good Year Nationally and Optimism Prevails Generally Throughout The Country Building Continues GoL Op , . - ' : All Indications Point To Continued Prosperity No Clouds In Business Sky, Say Industry's Prophets Underlying Conditions Sound, Business Risks Mini mizedMoney Conditions Easy . -..-.'. 1 JNEW YOitK, Dec. 31 (AP) Conaenratlre optimism Is the key note ' of business forecasts or 19?7 of tha nation's leading bank nf lnd business' men. ' .; ?Wlth two successive years of nansnal prosperity Just drawing to a close, and stock and bond ' prices around the highest levels er recorded, it in natural that prediction for the future should b attended with an anuaaa! d gre of caution, particularly by those committed to the . cycle theory of business. While a num ber of executives indicate that a lo-itjiig down in. general business is likely, fundamental conditions generally are regarded aSsouad and 'no serioas depression is look ed for in any responsible quarter. Some concern is expressed over the huge volume of securities ; owned by banks, oyer the lew price of commodities, particularly1 cotton, and Its possible effect on j the country's . purchasing power, 6m the growth of Installment, buying and over the apparent de cline in building costructioin. However, the ordinary harbingers of business depression audi as in flated prices, high inventories and over-expanded credit are absent. ; The Views of bo me of the na tionally recognized spokesmen for banking and business follow: 7- ; Banking By CHARLES B. MITCHELL, President, National City .Bank of -j'.'' New York "fThe year 1926 has been one Of comparative stability in. bank ing. -Pot over a decade the finan cial world has been tossed about in a, sea of alternating .inflation and deflation caused by war and great shifts of gold on a scale heretofore unheard of. Gradually the effects of the war are clearing away, and banking; conditions the world oyer ire getting back more nearly to normal. ! ,rlntttla country, commercial demandajnave shown a healthy ex pansion during, the past year, in keeping: with the activity of in dustry, bat there is no evidence of borrarwing to excess. In fact, the conspicuous feature of the pres tnt situation has been the ability , jf business concerns to finance themselves with comparatively little "recourse to bank credit. Such increases" as have occurred in - commercial borrowing have been offset In 'part by, a decline in bank investments and security loans, so that, the i 'year closes with but a AND I HILLMAN m . FUEL t COMPANY GO HAND IN HAND Phone 27 or 1855 if.r- Cherry City - i Manufacturers of Glierro HARDWHEAT Cereals and Proprietary Feeds. 6PAI1 ICinds Phone 318 ; SALEM'S ONLY, moderate advance in total bank credit outstanding over the levels prevailing at the beginning of the year. - "Concern-has been expressed in some quarters over 'the present large holdings of banks of secur ities and collateral loans which are Ineligible for rediscount or pledge at the Reserve banks. The expansion of these holdings In re cent years has been due tarpely to the fact that gold Imports ltav caused supplies of funds to in crease faster than they could be absorbed in the ordinary commer cial channels, so that banks have had no other alternative than their employment in the security markets. ! The problem of main taining liquidity should engage the attention of all bankers, but there is no evidence that the bank ing position thus far has been im paired. If we do not get any more gold the savings of the country will gradually absorb this large floating supply of ' securities, and banks will increase their holdings of commercial paper. "Despite the large amount of funds employed in the security markets. . growth of installment credit, and other demands upon the banks, the important thing to note is that the total volume' of credit required of the Reserve banks is less than that of a year ago. The country is thus carry ing on its business without draw ing upon its ultimate banking re serves, a fact tat-speaks strongly for the -underlying soundness of the credit situation. "With the resources of the Re serve banks practically untouched, money conditions continue easy. with no prospect of strain. What the trend of rates will bring dur ing the coming year depends, in the last analysis upon the course of business. No one etxpects any thing in the nature of tight mon ey, but it is true also 'that aside from such temporary seasonal easing as always occur in Janu ary no large reductions are likely so Ion? as business holds up to current levels. It should be ne membered that demands for cap ital have Increased very rapidly during the past five, years, and that heretofore they have been met, with funds to stpare, largely because of the replenishment of our bank reserves through gold Imports. With the probability that the period of large golfl im ports is row over, we can htardly expect to enjoy indefinitely; the unusual combination of high busi ness activity and abnormally low money rates." , 1 Oil Si4llr W. C. TteAOIE President, Standard. OIL Company, New Jersey' "With a perversity that was nicely timed. Nature released a f fresh flood of new, crude o$ pro duction last summer, just sas a large rectlon of the public had be come convinced that we are tprac tically at the end of our oS , re sources. "There is no major business activity so hard to forecast as crude production. No Sooner do experts complete their charts and commit themselves' to predictions than some lictle-consf A4 rod area is sure to break loose with a lot of oil. "In the past year -Inhere was Milling Co. PATENT, FLOOR s FLOUR MilL THE CIRCUIT RIDER r y J' v s. Handsome- monument on the State House grounds, commemorating tho pioneer spiritual leaders of Oregon who took the initiative in creating a civilization here, in other ways than in preaching the Christian religion. It is the work of A. Phimister Proctor, nationally1 fa uious sculptor, and was presented to the State of Ore gon by Robert A. Booth, in honor of his father, Rob rt Booth, one of the early circuit riders in Oregon. good reason in tiie early months to look for a substantial decrease for the 12 months period compar ed with 1925. The first six months loss amounted to 22". 000. 000 bar rels. Now it appears that i.ot only has the deficiency of the first half year been overcome by increased production in later months, but it is a practical cer tainty that the total yield Tor the full year 19 26 will exceed that for 1925 by a substantial amount and in so doing establish another new high record for the United States, above 765,000.000 barrels. "With the record breaking out put, increased imports and sea sonal decline in consumption, a large -'amount of current produc tion is now . going into storage. Nevertheless, and taking Into ac count the recent reduction in post ed prices, the producer is averag ing 8 cents a barrel more on his mid-continent production now than he was a year ago. For all the light crudes produced in Kan sas. Oklahoma and Texas, an av erage of 38 cents a barrel more has been paid so far this year. "The remarkable gain In pro duction has been due mainly to the development of three major pools in the latter half of the year. These are Panhandle and Spindle top in Texas and Seminole in Ok lahoma.' How . important they have been in effecting the change in the statistical position may be judged from the fact that they were doing only 70,000 barrels on July.l and by Thanksgiving were producing 35 7.000 barrels daily. "Even with this laew top for production, it is the. expectation of, the industry that stock.-) of crude and products on hand at the close of this year vill be re duced 15,000.000 barrels. If so. this will , be the first time that upy inroads have been made upon h country's huge reserves since! 1918. In the. past seven years! stocks abov; ground have increas ed by 350,000,000. "The industry Is steadily pro gressing in its effort- to increase the amount of gasolins obtained from each barrel of crude. To date this year the average gasoline yield has been 35 per cent, an in crease of nearly 2 Vi per cent from the average for 1925. This is mainly accounted for by the rapid spread of cracking processes. In the first nine months of the year there was produced in the coun try's refineries by cracking a total of 4.700,000 barrels of gasoline against 50,14 0,000 for the corre sponding period of 1925. The ac tual increase in gasoline obtained by cracking was therefore 29 per cent. ' ? . "This, to my mind. Is at once both th3 significant and the more reassuring single factor in the problem of the adequacy Of petro leum supplies to meet "the inereas-' ed needs of the future." . . Our Trade Is Won Br QUALITY . . Retained By FRIENDLINESS Insured By ' ; FAIR; PRICES : JRrPursIe$ BIERCnANT ; " 1825 Market SU Salem; Or. Steel Production By CHARLES M. SCHWAB Chairma.i of the Board of Direct ors, Bethlehem Steel Corporation. "At no time in history have the people of an entire nation enjoyed the prosperity prevalent in the United States today. At no tune have people dreamed of the' uni versal use of luxuries which v.e accept as our birthright. Our ma terial Tiosperity is astonishing, so remaraalile in fact that business men aro coming from all parts of the world to study our methods. "We still have many problems before us. Our very prosperity makes foreign manufacturers cast envious eyes at our markets. To maintain our markets and our present high wages with reason able profits or manufacturers we must realize efficiency and vccr; omies upon a progressive scale. a. A t T T 1 . THE INFANT Serving His Tender Needs f T T J T T T t T T t T T T T f r f T f t f t T X Y y Y Durine 42 j i i i and reliable -.1- ul o rfc j "r ley and the i 1 ' ' " 280 N. Commercial Street , ; - :; iv not merely in production but in marketing methods as well. "Both id industry and in agri culture there. must be co-operation among the factor involved to an extent never before considered necessary or even desirable, farm ing mast be conceived on a mote scientific basis. There musi be greater integration of agricultural producing units. We must apply to our fields the methods of larg scale production which have ben found successful in our factories. Waste in marketing must be min Imited on the farm as well as in Industry. "These things can and will be done through the cooperation of heads of industries, farmers, bank ers.' Wall Street men and ranchers. We have the greatest country in the! world and with intelligent ef fort, a feeling of humility and with faith in one another nothing ia beyond the power of achieve ment " Motion Pictures By ADOLPII ZDKOR President, Famous Players Lasky Corporation "This country is in good eco nomic condition, and in 1927 I think its prosperity will be on an even sounder basis than ever be fore. "The reason for this, to my mind, is a change in the mental attitude of. business concerns and individuals themselves. During the war and in the years that have followed, the United States went through a period of unprecedented activity. People were making money fast and spending it at the same pace. "In the last two years, however, particularly in the year now end ing, we have been husbanding our resources, we have become more conservative. This applies not only to industrial and commercial enterprises; it is also true of most of our citizens in the handling of their own private affairs. They are saving more, and when they spend money, they do so more in telligently; they demand greater value In return. Business is us ing; more care and foresight in its expansions, it is watching its future commitments with a more jealous eye. In other words, it is consolidating its position with the (Continued on Page 7.) DRUG STORE OF TODAY FOR EB.Y SHAKESPEARE'S SEVEN AGES 2. THE SCHOOL BOY Alleviating His Ills and Bruises 3. THE LOVER Supplying His Sweetheart Gifts 4. THE SOLDIER vears Frv's has safemiarrl th't healtk r j :j 7 J r TT . drues and medicines, i i r ii . . . w vr limouslv fnl nwino a fnrf sinH WnnAUU 1 A n --v- lJ " li t U,C best ableto correctly WISHING j YOU Ih bC9 LD AT A OLDEST BRICtf HOUSE CRUMBLING f - f i- L. , ' - - - - -- - - - - Krected in 1843 By'T. E. ARMSTRONG The ravages of time are relent less. The handiwork of men serves its purpose and crumbles into decay, which is to introduce th4 subject of, the first tbrick dwelling in Oregon. Standing on a beautiful round ed! knoll over-looking the level country two miles southwest of Wheatland and about the ame distance from Hopewell in Yam hill county, is the decaying rem nant of pioneer days when Oregon was young and civilization was primitive. i The builder of this monuments to yearly i enterprise was Georgef Gay. an! Englishman, who left a whaling Cvessel in San Francisco hatbor and wended his way north ward about the year 1830. In 1833 hephomesteaded this section ofpraire and ' woodland and erected a temporary habitation thereon. ; It was fair to look upon and entiding to the eye. The open area was' covered with a lururient growth of grass and the soil was fertile. .'It is said the grass "was so high that deer could hide with ou fears of being seen even at cloe range. Mr. Gay lived in his temporary dwelling for several years and farmed jn a manner common to the- times. It is easy to imagine hist yearnings for something to which he was accustomed, sur roundings that would keep In mind a little of the home lire, but what could it be that he was able to supply in so primitive a coun i Through Three Generations 5. THE JUSTICE Supplying 6. HIS - . , M,C."C1U1 rt"u iiappmcss ot oaiem s ramilies with o alwavft in fh Kanrlo f 1r;i1 i --i. r - . . vjji. v ui uirci uinn ann nrnirnctr UT compiereiy stocKea drug store in the Willamette val- care for your every drug ONE AND ALL A HAPPY NEW YEAR DRUO STOP R ji m i by Georjce Gay try? He must have meditated long and pondered well the subject. Years passed and.- no answer. Fi nally an. inspiration, came to him. The briak houses of Old England.' Ah! this is the answer. ' "The brick I can mold and burn and I can build them into a dwelling- that will stand and be -a constant reminder of the Homeland." He" went to work with a will and early in the '40s-the house was ready to be occupied. It con tained two large rooms on the ground .floor with a large fire place in each. The upstairs was sufficient for sleeping purposes. Small windows were the rule as Is evidenced by the openings. A door in front and rear. The wood work was hand dressed and must required the utmost of time and patience to prepare it for Its place in the. building. Much of this is In a good state of p reservation". . Mr. Gay "reared his family here, many descendants of, which still live in the Willamette valley. In 1872; he' sold the farm to Mrs. Alice Booth, who had lived In Pennsylvania, but who had formerly emigrated from England. Here she settled with her son. Israel, and daughter . Rachel. The old brick house still reminded its occupants of the Homeland," and we may reasonably surmise that the house -may have been the de ciding factor in its purchase. Mrs. Booth, lived to nearly 90 years of age and was a familiar and unique figure in the commun- TODAY'S NEEDS i thie Panaceas of Middle Age . ' ' ' ?' LEAN AND SLIPPERED EASE Continued Health and Comfort : - ! - 7. SECOND CHILDISHNESS Sans No Desire r ic c-.i- f jm ui uaicm lamuies wim pure unauM, ucgwicicu piiarxnacists. ' re- - ' t kS . .c requirement. XSJV ll a ac it ''"S I this place tney were joined ty tier Israel, has. operated this farm, to the present time.-more than. 54 years. Tears ago they bought more land and moved frami the old brick' house to a home' on the highway., . . The bid building is: crumbling lo decay.t :ricks are falling from the eaves and gables. One fire--, place has been torn out and the ceiling Is sagging to the floor. It t has become the shelter for sheep' and the garret a refuge for bats. The. wind sighs through the treat oak whleh overhangs this decay ing monument, and drooping, gray moss adds a tinge of sadness to the scene. I ! One could wish for better treat ment for that w Wen had - senti- ment and love builded Into its brick and mortar, into every board and shingle. . v ' .' A New Manufacturing Overstuffed . Furniture and Recovering to order Complete line of Wicker Ware Salem Wicker & Furniture Mfg. i Phone : 2218 State St.' Salem, Ore. Y Y Y Y t Industry Y ' Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y -Y Y f Y - Y :f Y Y Y Y : y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y v J ' .i r - .r acistj i - A. .A, ,--.;.p . ' - v ' v. v v V V V V "V w'-w