THE SUNDAY OREGONIAN, PORTLAND, DECEMBER 31, 1923
Through countless decades the torrid
zone has contributed something to the
material welfare of the temperate
zone.
BY JOSEPH A. PETTIT, M. D.
WHAT is to be done with the peo
ple living in the year 2200T
The population of Europe has
during the past hundred years Increased
about 200 per cent. To state It con
cretely: whereas Its population a century
ago stood at a little over 100,000,000, it
has now mounted-to over 800,000,000.
Applying the law of ratio (based upon an
examination of the percentage of In
crease during the past four centuries and
the increased longevity of modern civili
zation) we may calculate that the next
hundred years will bring the population
well up toward a billion. Then what?
Will the people be able to sit down, or
will they have to stand up? Will they
go hungry, or will they be fed, or clothed,
or provided with snelter? And if the
percentage ratio continues for 200 years
beyond that, how will the acres of Eu
rope stand the strain of maintaining
2,000,000,000, or more?
We will dismiss the hypothesis of
emigration; for statistics reveal the fact
that emigration has been influencing the
population of Europe to a maximum de
gree for the past 100 years, and that, in
epite of an emigration of some 30,000,
000, its population has climbed. What
then will retard this overwhelming ratio
of increase? Will future wars do so?
There eeems to be a common Impression
that wars tend to shrink the population
of countries to an enormous degree. Let
ns consider the statistical reports of the
recent war. During a, period of over four
years, a majority of the population of
Europe were opposed to one another in
the most deadly conflict recorded in his
tory. The machinery used tor the de-
struction of human life during this period
of strife surpassed in ingenuity and ef
ficiency that of all preceding wars. The
size of the armies actually engaged in
conflict cannot be paralleled on the pages
of history. Yet, notwithstanding the
vastness of the armed forces pitted
against one another, and the fiendish in
genuity of their engines of war, there
were not over 7,000,000 of men slain
during the four years and three months
that this conflict endured. Viewed with
out reference to percentage ratio, this
figure looms large and portentous; but
viewed with reference to the total popu
lation of the countries engaged, it shrinks
li importance. To speak specifically,
only 2 per cent of the population was
killed, or what amounts to only of 1
per cent per annum. The birthrate, which
existed during the war far exceeded the
figures of loss. Has, then, Europe's
population been actually lessened by the
war? We are forced to admit that It has
not. Neither does it seem to have been
definitely retarded. The majority of the
wounded 12,000,000 (comprising after
all only 4 per cent of the population)
have returned to some peaceful occupa
tion. The prisoners of war about 2 per
cent of the population either have re
turned to their former occupations, or
soon will, amply able to do their part in
the fecundity of the European races. So
that we conclude that while the ratio of
population increase has been momentarily
slowed down to soma Blight degree, there
continues a prodigious numerical pro
gression of the human race.
It is of interest to consider also how
the population of the United States has
been affected through the loss of life dur
ing the world war. The actual war losses
amounted to about 1-18 of 1 per cent of
the total population. Nor was this total
seriously affected by the influenza epi
demic, the worse scourge which has ever
swept over the United States in many
years. The death toll was less than
of 1 per cent figures which may be of
interest when compared with the black
plague, which claimed one-third of Eng
land's population during three successive
waves In the 14th century. An examina
tion of the population of the United
States during the last half century re
veals that it has climbed by leaps and
bounds that It has, In fact, grown 120
per cent The last census of the United
States shows that the population of this
country has increased 21 per cent for the
ten years ending in 1910; and that the
increase for the past ten years was 15
per cent. And this is despite the fact
that the big influx of emigration has been
shut off during half of this period and
that the influenza epidemic and the war
have claimed their relatively (from a per
centage standpoint) meager toll. Our
population now stands at about 105,000,
000. If the same percentage of increase
that has governed the population of this
country during the past 50 years is main
tained, and since the normal increase
will beyond doubt be swelled by Imml-
gration from over-crowded Europe, it is
reasonable to assume that the United
States will have by the year 1373 no less
than 200,000,000 of inhabitants.
The figures which are given in refer
ence to the decrease of birth rate among
the American people will not in reality
affect the increase in population, because
relatively few babies die now as com
pared with 20 years ago. In other words,
the American mother of a quarter of a
century ago might bear five children, but
on the average would not raise to man
hood any more than the American mother
now, who bears only three children and
loses none through the diseases of in
fancy. A recent press dispatch speaks of
an Oregon woman dying at the age of 98.
At this particular time she had five liv
ing children, 25 living grandchildren, 42
living great grandchildren, and one great
great grandchild. She and her husband
may be accredited with having added 73
to this country's population. A careful
check of other families might prove this
to be no exceptional record.
Wars and disease do not seem to have
had even a decimating influence on the
population of the civilized world. Nor
does there appear to be a decline in the
reproduction of the race. And so, when
our great grandchildren sit by their fire
sides as grandfathers themselves, it is
not Improbable that they can boast of
their country being 300,000,000 strong.
The problem of maintaining this ever
increasing population is one that will
have to be met in the future, when the
percentage has leaped to the saturation
point.
The probabilities are that there will be
a wide margin of gain in the ratio of
population Increase during the next 100
years or so. This potentiality for in
crease is reasonably insured through the
strides made in medical science during
the past 50 years in the preservation and
stimulation of human vitality. It Is of
interest to note that in the 17th century
the average of human life was 13 years,
while in the latter part of the succeeding
century this average was raised to 30
years. During the "first part of this cen
tury It rose to 35, and we find statistics
showing that the average of human life
has at present attained the mark of 45
years. Typhoid epidemics are now his
torical, a result of the two methods of
prevention innoculation and avoidance
of contaminated water. The former
death toll of diphtheria amongst chll--dren
no longer exists, because of the pre
ventive quarantine or the curative in
noculatlon. Many former lethal diseases
of the abdomen and of the other parts of
the body are now amenable to surgical
cure. The excessive use of alcohol has
always had a direct and an indirect in
fluence upon the shortening of human
life. The voluntary moderation of its
use Is gradually creeping over the world,
and compulsory abstinence is being
forced on some countries. The gradual
elimination of the deleterious effect of
diseases, as well as of intemperance, will
have a tendency to remove many of the
causes which influence early tissue de
generation. We may find the next gen
eration able to avoid the untimely de
velopment of the senile changes, and our
old people more likely to enjoy health
when they attain the time-honored period
prescribed by holy writ. We may finally
establish a new standard. These factors
will undoubtedly add at least a few more
years to the average longevity. A scien
tific consideration of the situation leads
to a reasonable assumption that during
the next quarter of a century the average
of human life will be increased to 55
years or better. And It might be well to
emphasize the fact that these factors will
have a potential influence upon the rela
tive increase of the world's' population,
both as to the increased duration of pro
ductivity, as well as to the immediate
enumeration.
The unborn generations are going to
live longer than have the past genera
tions. The ideals of the civilized world
and the desires of modern men, as well
as of the forthcoming man, woman and
child, will make wider demands on life.
The primitive desire for a simple abode,
a few acres, a cow and a horse, and home
spun raiment, has now been transformed
into the ambitious demands with which
we are immediately familiar.- It is evi
dent that greater per capita productivity
is necessary. Modern machinery and
factories cannot produce raw materials.'
They merely transform them from one
shape to another. The problem of the
increase of the world's population pre
sents not only the natural numerical In
crease of demands, but also the quality
of the demands. It is not so much a
question of where the food is to.be given
manufacture into more edible forms, or
where the cotton is to be spun and woven
into cloth, as it is a problem of where
these foodstuffs and fundamentals for
raiment are to be produced in adequate
quantities. In response to a question as
to what the people in a certain village
did for a livelihood, a facetious reply was
given that the inhabitants took in each
other's washing for a living. So far as
furnishing essentials for existence of hu
man life is concerned, some manufacturing
centers present an analogous situation.
It is evident that an adequate amount of
crude materials must come from some
where. At the present time the wheat
fields of western Canada and the United
States sources of supply that did not
exist 100 years ago furnish an enor
mous amount of the world's bread stuffs.
These regions have been opened and put
to the plow to feed an evergrowing and
ambitious population. And with that
population still on the increase and. still
demanding, other sections and regions of
productiveness will have to be looked for
to yield their full quota of the world's
supply.
So that now as we consider the future
populations of the world, we feel that
new fields of production must be found.
And why not the tropics? Through
countless decades, tne torrid zone has
contributed something to the material
welfare of the temperate zones hides,
rubbers, coffee, drugs exclusive prod
ucts which have gradually become an
intimate and necessary part of the life
of the temperate zones. The tropics,
broadly considered, contain both a mini
mum population and a potentiality for
maximum productiveness of those sub
stances essential for the food and raiment
and material comfort of human beings.
This productiveness exists potentially in -the
superlative degree, and yet is ac
tually developed in only a minimum de
gree. And why? The answer is found
in the very essential particular in which
these two regions are divergent energy.
Men of the energetic zones have had
their ventures into the luxuriant tropical
regions, but mainly for adventure, for
temporary sojourn, for experiment, or
for speculation. It has stood as a self
evident truth that they would never be
able to accomplish the fact of permanent
existence in the enervating climate and
nnhealthful environments that It took
the native, who through the advantages
of birth and inheritance and gradual ad
justment had become immune to tropical
diseases or enured to tropical hardships,
to bear up under the debilitating climate
and its attendant diseases. But medical
knowledge has gone far to overcome
these difficulties and to conquer these
terrors. Malaria, the most prevalent dis-
ease of hot climates, Is a curable disease
by virtue of certain medicines, and it has
become a preventable disease through the
control of the mosquito pest. Typhoid
fever, as has already been said, is pre
ventable through both innoculatlon and
sanitation, as is also cholera; while yel
low fever, which is still difficult to cure,
can be absolutely prevented by the con
trol of the type of mosquito that has
been proved to be the only carrier of the
germ of this particular disease and the
only means of its transmission to man.
The failure of the French to succeed In
constructing the Panama canal was not
so much because of failure of finance or
lack of inadequate machinery, as It was
because of the fact that medical science
80 years ago had not solved the problem
of tropical diseases. Men died by the
hundreds of yellow fever, of malaria, and
of cholera. It has been estimated that
every tie laid in the construction of the
Panama railroad represented a human
life. During the American construction
of the present Panama canal the writer
spent some weeks in the canal zone.
There was not a single case of yellow
fever in any of the hospitafs. Malaria
had been curbed to a minimum, and al
most all the beds in the malarial wards
were vacant. It was possible to sit all
evening upon the veranda of the Hotel
Tivoli in the American 'quarter of Pa
nama without being bitten by a mosquito.
General Gorgas, heading the medical
corps, contributed more to the real "solu
tion of the problem of construction of
this canal than did General Goethals,
heading the engineer corps.
Besides disease, sheer physical dis
comfort has rendered the tropics dis
agreeable or Impossible for permanent
residence for the energetic inhabitant of
SCOTLAND YARD'S HEAD BRANDS
CLEVER WOMAN SPY AS A MYTH
Despite Historical Romances Growing Out of Every War, Famous Criminologist
Says Feminine JJspionage Failed Germany in World Conflict.
IMAGINE a war story without a wom
an spy, imagine a tale of diplomacy,
high or low, with a divine creature
moving through it, capturing the hearts
and souls of all the poor men and ex
tracting from them any state or military
secret her curiosity or her evil will
brought her to unveli. The woman spy
Is one of the most settled of beliefs and '
to suggest that they are not miraculously
effective, that they might even be said to
do more harm than good, to the side that
employs them, would seem to be a heresy
that few could be guilty of.
Yet this very heresy, this denial, that
women spies are valuable has just been
made by the man who by his position is
the one who ought to know best. He is
Sir Basil Thomson, who as chief of Scot
land Yard, head of the British secret
service during the war, and one of the
greatest criminologists in the world, has
made a remarkable record In crime de
tection. He has been called Sherlock
Holmes in real life and it has been said
that if it had not been for his efforts,
German spies, by their very number and
unlimited possession of funds, might have
accomplished what the German armies
failed to accomplish in the field.
Sir Basil Thomson has just arrived in
America and after a bit of looking
around has made some very startling
statements. One of them that came quite
unexpectedly was his declaration that the
German system of espionage was Inef
f.cient. Accustomed as we have been to
the dark tales of diabolical German in
trigue this will come as a surprise to
most Americans. But most astounding
of all is Sir Thompson's declaration that
in spite of the power of woman's charms
and her uncanny intuition she Is far from
tfficient In spy work.
Sir Thomson concentrated his two
heresies in one terse sentence. Speaking
of German spies he said, "I knew only -two
or three good ones; and the Germans
made the mistake of using women who
are useless for that work."
It is certainly hard to believe It pos
slble that such a statement could be
made in all Seriousness. By the shears
of Delilah, whose spy work deprived the
Israelites of their greatest hero, by the
charms of Cleopatra, who started by an
attempt to spy upon the Roman generals
and found it unnecessary since they were
perfectly willing to be her faithful serv
ants, by the dirk of Judith, who ended a
way by slicing off the king's head, it
would seem that the ladies deserve more
credit.
,
So much has the effectiveness of the
woman spy been practically an article of
faith, that it has passed to a proverb.
Almost everybody knows the meaning of
the French prcverb, "Cherchez la fem
rne," or look for the woman, in case there
is a particularly baffling mystery. And
novelists, movie producers, stage direc
tors have all served to keep up this be- -lief.
Yet if it is true, and Sir Basil Thorn
con ought to know, It was surely not
until the late world war that the par
ticular wiles of women as spies were sat
isfactorily guarded against, for history
has many records to prove that in the
past the woman spy proved herself re
markable, resourceful and serviceable to
her employer.
Sir Basil bases his belief in the in
feriority of women for this work on the
fact that they are not analytically mind
ed. . They may - be resourceful, in an
emergency, through their remarkable in
tuitive power, he admits, but he contends
they cannot lay plans or co-operate in
them, since these activities require great
analytical power.
Another and more unexpected reason,
Sir Basil thinks, Is the fact that women
are more susceptible te the tender pas
sion. The use of women it has been ad
mitted has always been primarily a sex
one to rouse love in the bosom of Impres
sionable young officers, but in this there
is always danger, as women are more
likely to yield to this lure than men.
Male spies have frequently proceeded by
the temperate zone. But mechanical de
vices have done much to contribute to
his comfort and to mitigate his distress
in such environments. Cooling devices,
ice machines, and so on, all have tended
to ameliorate the hardships which have
hitherto beset those of other zones who
have braved the rigors of the heat and
other enervating conditions. So with
health insured, and with comfort in
prospect, there seems to be left no real
season why energetic peoples should not
take advantage of the tropical soil and
climate and its unbounded- productive
ness. And is there not assurance for the
future in the fact that the abundance of
the products of the most fertile areas of
the earth will for centuries feed the peo
ples of other zones, when they become
populated beyond the saturation point
and cannot produce sustenance for their
own inhabitants?
No one who has not personalty come
in contact with the tropics can adequately
realize its potential productivity. The
one crop a year proposition is unknown
there. It Ib simply a matter of how many
weeks or months it takes for a certain
crop to mature, and the ground can then
be turned over and replanted. The abun
dance of crop yield per acre Is amazing.
The variety of sustaining food stuffs
which can be grown in the tropics Is un
limited. The hope for an adequate production
of food and raiment for future peoples
seemingly rests upon the productiveness
of the tropics, and upon the fact that the
utilization of this productiveness will be
made possible through the development
of medical science, thus rendering it a
safe and healthful place In which to live
and produce human sustenance in a su
perlative degree.
forming an attachment to a woman in
the place where they were conducting
their activities. Women spies whose
duties have been to make men weakly
amorous, while successful, have just as
often, and even more so, become the vic
tims in their turn and have been ren
dered useless to the people who employed
them. Then again it is said that while
a man may subordinate everything to his
ratrlotism, this is not the case with
women, whose highest loyalty has always
been to love.
4
The ancient story of Ariadne well il
lustrates this fact. Some interpreters
have declared that when Theseus, who
came with the seven youths and seven
maidens from Athens to Crete to be sacri
ficed to the Minotaur, King Minos in
stead of trying to get political Informa
tion from the young prince by torture,
the usual method, decided to use guile
and commissioned his daughter Ariadne
to make love to him. But as It happened
It worked the other way round. Ariadne
fell deeply in love with Theseus and. be
trayed her father, her country, and all
the laws of virtuous womanhood for the
Athenian prince.
History offers another tale very like
this one. When Cortez, the conqueror of
Mexico came with his Spainards among
the Indians a woman who many believe
was sent as a spy entered the Spanish
ranks and gained the love of the general
himself. But It was of no service to the
Indians, for Marina, as she was called,.be
came passionately attached to the con
queror and thereafter helped him So
much that it has been declared that with
out her assistance the conquest of this
empire In the west would have been im
possible. California Gold Strike Aid to
Industry Here.
Oregon Said to Have Taken Dnat In
Exchange tor Produce.
OREGON'S first business excitement
came in August, 1848, when a lit
tle schooner from San Francisco
pulled Into the wharf at the village of
Portland and began to load all the Ore
gon products obtainable in exchange for
a lot of Mexican produce.
After a cleanup was made of all the
available products the captain of the
visiting craft announced the discovery of
gold in California. Very soon gold dust
and states money was rolling back into
Oregon in exchange for more Oregon
products and so wheat was soon elimin
ated as the circulating legal tender me
dium. It was not long before Oregon was
digging as much gold out of the sale of
its products as the miners were getting
in California. Industries began to get a
footing In the state and the demand for
workers brought additional settlers to
Oregon just as the gold digging opera
tions brought into California.
As one of the results of this develop
ment the manufacture of gold coins was
started at Oregon City a few months
later. The Oregon City mint was the
first on the Pacific coast and coined 158,
500 in gold money under the sanction of
the United States government. The faith
of the government in these early days of
the possibility of industrial development
In Oregon impressed citizens of the state
and resulted in the establishment soon
afterward of the nucleus of plants from
which present day industry developed.
Much Remains to Be Said.
"Senator, would you be so kind as to
tell me in two words just what is behind
this Shantung controversy?"
"I'm sorry, major, that I can't oblige
you, but when I return to Washington I
will be glad to send you a copy of a
speech I delivered some weeks ago. It
is only 20,000 words in length, but I be
lieve,' in the short time allotted to me,
that I ahem succeeded in showing that
the matter calls for ahem extended
debate."