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’osed to Leave Behind a Middle East Quagmire
Now it’s Obama’s ‘dumb’ war
by
P eter C erto
If
B a ra ck
Obama owes his
presidency to one
thing, it was the
good sense he had
back in 2002 to
call the Iraq W ar what it was:
“dumb.”
Now, with scarcely a whisper
of debate, Obama has become
the fourth consecutive U.S.
president to bomb Iraq — and in
fact has outdone his predeces
sors by spreading the war to
Islamic State targets in Syria as
well. With the Pentagon predict
ing that this latest conflict could
rage for three years or longer,
Obama is now poised to leave
behind a Middle East quagmire
that closely resembles the one
he was elected to end.
Obama says the plan is to
ham m er Islamic State targets
from the air while bolstering part
ners on the ground. There are
two big problems with this.
First, bombs kill and injure
civilians, potentially radicalizing
their friends and families.
Look no further than the drone
war battlegrounds of Y emen and
have refused to collaborate with after funding Osama bin Laden’s
the United States.
crusade against the Soviets in
Pakistan, where terrorist re
While the Kurds may prove Afghanistan — supplying the
cruiters have exploited the se more reliable allies, their first very fighters who would later
vere trauma inflicted on civil priority is to consolidate their form groups like al-Qaeda and
ians there to sign up new mem own territory in Iraq — as evi the Taliban — the enemy of
bers. A similar dynamic could denced by their seizure of the your enemy is not necessarily
play out in Iraq and Syria, disputed (and oil-rich) city of your friend.
where the White House has Kirkuk during the chaos of the
The Islamic State is gaining
suspended the already paltry rules Islamic State invasion in June.
ground because o f political
meant to limit civilian casualties
In Syria, the options are even breakdowns on both sides of the
from drone strikes.
worse: It’s either the dictator Ira q i-S y ria n b o rd e r. T h at
Second, those partners on the Bashar al-Assad — with whom vacuum is one salient legacy of
ground come with a lot of bag Washington has refused to co the last war in Iraq. Pumping
gage.
operate — or a gaggle of so- more money, bombs, and arms
Despite outnumbering Islamic called “moderate” Syrian rebel into the region will only deepen
State forces 40 to 1, the Iraqi groups that the W hite House the crisis — while turning more
Army turned over M osul — plans to vet, train, and arm to the Americans into targets.
Iraq’s second-largest city — teeth.
If Washington wants to do
without firing a shot, leaving be
The CIA, which has been work som ething about the Islamic
hind millions of dollars worth of ing directly with Syrian rebels in State, it should send humanitar
advanced U.S. military equip Jordan, is reportedly deeply skep ian aid to displaced civilians, re
ment. And when the Iraqi Army tical of this plan. These rebels are start talks to end Syria’s civil
does fight, it has a nasty pen unlikely to defeat either Assad or war, and condition all assistance
chant for dropping indiscrimi the Islamic State, much less both to Baghdad on its willingness to
nate (and illegal) barrel bombs of them. A better bet is, like the improve conditions for Iraq’s
on civilian neighborhoods, as it even better-funded Iraqi Army, Sunni minority.
did in Islamist-held Fallujah ear many of them will wind up turning
The last thing Obama should
lier this year.
their arms over to the Islamic do is fight a war for allies who
Shiite militias may step in to fill State’s fighters.
are losing a popularity contest to
the gap left by the Iraqi Army.
Remember this: If the Islamic a group that beheads people.
But many of these groups were State gets beaten back, the
Peter Certo is the deputy
deeply involved in the sectarian United States will be responsible editor o f OtherWords and the
bloodletting of Iraq’s turbulent for whatever takes its place. As editor o f Foreign Policy In
post-invasion years, and some Washington should have learned Focus.