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Next Round of Unwinnable War Beckons
]
Islamic State targets may just make things worse
jy A manda
U fheil -S omers
Once again, a U.S.
F re s id e n t vow s to
e iliminate an extrem-
i st militia in the Middle
last to make the re-
;ion, and Americans,
afe.
And that means it’s time again
f or a reality check. Having failed
n n its bid to destroy the Taliban
nd al-Qaeda in Afghanistan,
tl le United States is still trying to
d ismantle both organizations.
>ver the course of 13 years of
'ar, that mission has spread to
yria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia,
ibya, Mali, and West Africa, as
m lilitant groups on two continents
ave ad o p ted the al-Q aed a
rand.
Contrary to normal logic, the
4rite House wants everyone to
:e this failure as a badge of
ipertise. As President Barack
bama vowed in an interview
l Meet the Press, fighting the
lamic State forces “is some-
th ing we know how to do,” mainly
be cause w e’ve been battling
sir nilar groups “for five, six, seven
ars.”
Years of air strikes, drone-
operated killings, and covert
operations have brought
neither peace nor safety to
the region and its people.
Estimates of the death toll
from U.S. attacks in Paki
stan, Yemen, and Somalia
alone range from 3,100 to 5,400,
including 570-1,200 civilians.
Precise figures are impossible to
obtain since the strikes remain
classified, and investigating drone
attacks is difficult and danger
ous work.
Nor has the drone campaign
halted the proliferation of groups
seeking to link their — usually
local — agendas to the idea of a
global struggle represented by
al-Qaeda. Indiscriminate killing
— and the constant fear of death
from above — has only de
stroyed communities and pro
vided easy recruitment material
for extremist groups.
Obama promises that his plan
to combat and destroy the Is
lamic State forces will also ad
dress the underlying political
problems in Iraq and Syria. Such
claim s are tenuous, at best.
has found some support in the
areas it has taken over. Bomb
ing Islamic State targets — es
pecially where they are em bed
ded in communities and liable to
cause civilian casualties — car
ries no promise o f changing this
dynamic for the better. It’s more
likely to change it for the worse.
The Islamic State is indeed a
danger to the people of the re
gion and to efforts to resolve the
political conflicts in Iraq and
Syria. Yet the past decade has
shown, again and again, that
A m erican firepow er d o esn ’t
solve these problems. Even if
W ashington manages to help
destroy this al-Qaeda spinoff,
the grievances that give rise to
groups like it can’t be bombed
out of existence.
The campaign formerly called
“the W ar on Terror” has only
proven to perpetuate both war
and te rro r. N o am o u n t o f
rebranding or wishful thinking
will change that reality this time
around.
W hat’s far more certain is thal
all military campaigns have un
intended consequences, some of
which don’t appear for many
years afterward.
The Islam ic State itself is
largely a product of the U.S.
invasion and occupation of Iraq.
Dismantling the Iraqi state and
rebuilding it along sectarian lines
produced an authoritarian gov
ernment dominated by Shiite Is
lamists who ignored minority
grievances and often suppressed
dissent with bullets. The result?
An entrenched civil war with no
end in sight.
Although U.S. media cover
age of the violence in Iraq sub
sided following the withdrawal
o f combat troops, sectarian at
tacks against civilians have con
tinued. Car bombs, street as
saults, and kidnappings have
transformed Baghdad into a city
segregated by sect. Large parts
of the country, including the Sunni
majority areas in the west and
Amanda Ufheil-Somers is
north, feel abandoned by the the assistant editor o f Middle
central government.
East Report, published by the
These political tensions are Middle East Research and In
the reason why the Islamic State formation Project.