3T l)e
a r t l a n d © b a e r u e r ----------------------- c g c h n o io g ^ ---------------------------------------- March 22,200a
Pages
The next 1,000 years; the “Big Five” engines of economic growth
B> G raham T.T, M om tor
eor T iie
P ortland O bserver
The current information era, made
possible by communication and
co m p u ter te c h n o lo g y , is still
reaching its zenith but has relatively
few remaining years o f dominance
-possibly as few as 20. Two decades
is not too short a time to start
thinking seriously about what comes
next.
Each new w ave o f the “Big Five”
will enjoy abriefdominance, similar
to the previous “ Big Four.” It will
first become the largest provider o f
employment and soon thereafter
account for the biggest share o f
gross domestic product. Careful
research shows that the forces
behind fundam ental econom ic
change begin to gather decades,
even centuries, before the wave
peaks. Each o f the impending new
economic waves is already well
under way.
Leisure Time Era: Dominant bv
2015
L eisu re-o rien ted b u sin e sse s -
everything from bars to video stores
to opera houses - will account for
50% o f the U.S. gross national
product shortly after 2015.
"Big entertainment” conglomerates
th a t in c lu d e film , te le v isio n ,
publishing, music, hotels, and theme
parks - such as Viacom-Paramount,
Simon & Schuster, Disney’s ABC,
and Time-W amer-Tumer - are in
the forefront o f this new sector.
Som etim e p rio r to 2015, new
technology and a number o f other
trends will allow people to devote
over 50% o f their 1 ifetimes to leisure.
Life Sciences Era: Dominant by
2100
L ife sc ie n c e s w ill d o m in a te
economic activity by 2100 and well
intothefollowingcentury. Mapping
the genomes o f humans and other
organisms opens up epoch-settling
potentials. The secret o f life itself,
one o f th e m ost so u g h t-a fte r
mysteries o f all time, is beginning
to be revealed. Understanding the
“blueprints” for life will allow
genetic engineers to control the
evolution o f plants, animals, and
human beings.
As early as 2020, that power will
cause the most divisive moral and
ethical d ilem m as o f all tim e.
Eugenics - humans taking conscious
control oftheirevolution-is certain
to become the most-controversial
issue in these debates. Organized
religion, along with other critics
and crusaders, will exert powerful
effo rts to oppose life-alterin g
genetic technologies.
Eventually, genetic principles will
be applied to clone human organs
for transplant and discover the
mechanism s behind aging. The
possibility o f“immoi ■ aity” looms.
Megamaterials Era: Dominant by
2200-2300
M e g a m a te rials te c h n o lo g ie s,
including the ability to disassemble
and reconstruct matter at the atomic
and subatomic levels, will radically
transform the physical sciences, but
will require considerable time.
These technologies may dominate
b etw een
2200
and 2300.
Megamaterials science unravels the
mysteries o f the myriad states and
configurations o f matter.
Nanotechnology, the fabrication of
molecule-sized tools and machines,
is a L illip u tia n fro n tie r only
b e g in n in g to be e x p lo red .
Nanotechnology will use fewer
materials, consume less energy, and
minimize waste.
Megamaterials science will explore
fro n tie rs even sm a lle r than
nanotechnology: Step-by-step and
part-by-part, the dizzying array o f
particles and/or wave forms that
make up atomic structure continue
to be discovered. Scientists are
peeling away the other layers o f the
atom ’s nucleus like the layers of an
onion and identifying numerous
su b a to m ic co m p o n e n ts. The
innermost depths and dimensions
o f su b a to m ic m a tte r rem ain
unfathomed.
Manipulation o f atoms depends
upon the ability to “see” or image
atomic and subatomic structure and
processes. X-ray probes can image
the structure o f molecules, proteins,
and enzymes. New atomic force
microscopes can resolve individual
atoms. Once the precise nature of
matter is understood, science will
be able to control it at will. That
time is not far away.
New Atomic Age: Dominant by
2100-2500
Thermonuclear fusion will usher in
a New Atomic Age. Fusion uses
virtually limitless hydrogen as fuel,
and so it has the potential to satisfy
unlimited energy needs. Once we
learn to duplicate the hydrogen
fusion that fuels the sun, humans
will extract energy from their own
"star-furnaces.”
Since World War 11, nuclear fission
has been harnessed not only to create
vast arsenals, but for scores o f
peaceful purposes. A grow ing
num ber
of
n a tio n s
are
overwhelmingly dependent upon
nuclear fission for their energy
needs. That reliance will continue
to grow. We can look forward to
According to Graham T. T. Molitor, a well renowned Futurist, in the next 20 years after the Information
Age. five great eras (Leisure Time, Life Sciences, MegaMaterials, New Atomic, and New Space} will sweep
through the world economy over the next 1,000 years.
steady progress in this area as well.
New Space Age: Dominant by
2500-3000
E xtraterrestrial en terprise will
beco m e th e m ain e n g in e o f
economic activity sometime prior
to the year 3000, perhaps as early as
2500. For centuries, increasingly
so p h istic a te d te le sc o p e s and
observational probes have been
searching and studying the far
reaches o f the cosmos. Astrophysics
and a score o f other new fields of
inquiry have slowly but steadily
revealed secrets o f the universe.
Spacecraft, manned and unmanned,
have begun the task o f exploring
outer space. The cosmos looms
closer than ever.
V isio n a rie s
have
a lre a d y
established businesses to arrange
space travel for thrill seekers and
for “burial” o f cremated remains in
the cosmos. Others foresee space
colonies that would mine resources
from the vast riches o f this solar
system, this galaxy, and beyond.
The exploration o f the universe will
occupy humanity into eternity.
Many o f the technologies needed
for the New Space Age have been
e sta b lish e d .
N ow ,
th ese
technologies need to grow.
Prospects for Progress
Today’s fast-paced lifestyles and
im m ed iate c o n c e rn s seldom
encourage taking the long view.
Our sense o f history is vague. Yet,
careful examination o f the past and
present is essential for projecting
possible, probable, and preferable
future prospects. The economic
timeline presented here offers such
a long view, allowing individuals to
take advantage o f future economic
opportunities, latching onto those
on the upswing and sidestepping
those on the downswing.
On a final note, studying the past
and the present shows that the human
c o n d itio n
has
ste a d ily ,
incrementally improved. We should
be able to e x p ect co n tin u ed
improvement in the years ahead.
Graham T.T. Molitor is president
o f Public Policy Forecasting and
vice president and legal counsel o f
the World Future Society. For more
on futuristic subjects, visitthe World
F u ture S o c ie ty ’s w eb site at
www.wfs.org wfs.
.................
See your business on the web
advertise on
The Portland Observer website
Come visit us at
www.portlandobserver.com
...............................................................................
"
----------- ---------------------------------