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Year 2000.
by J erry
of
D awson
T he P ortland O bserver
Earlier this month Robert X.
Cringely, o f PBS “Triumph o f
the Nerds” fame, spoke about
the Y2K problem at The Busi
ness Journal’s New Millen
nium Party, sponsored
by Bank o f America,
G rant T h o rn to n
and Oregon Pub
lic Broadcasting.
Cringely gave us
some good news
and som e bad
news: “The fact is
that none o f the
experts I’ve talked
to says Y2K will
be a n o n -ev e n t.
Their predictions
range from minor
annoyance to A r
mageddon.”
C ringely did p ro
vide som e insight
into som e fairly
c o m m o n
misperceptions. One
is that people who now sell us
goods and services will want to
continue to do so in the year
2000, and beyond. For example,
if the Y2K com puter-related
problems caused some billing
difficulties for AT&T, does any
one really think they will stop
us from making long distance
phone calls? O f course not, buy
maybe they will have to re-ne-
October 20,1999
Foéus
Page 5
What..... me worry?
gotiate our bills, or give us a dis
count, or bill us later - but some
thing will be done to preserve
their money-making business of
selling long distance phone ser-
clocks that in many cases are not
Y2K compliant, but Cringely
pointed out that most all of them
receive their critical date-related
information form systems out
side the chip. Many o f these pro
cessors have time criti
cal functions, too, like
sto p lig h ts, but the
year may be irrel
e v a n t. A traffic
light only needs
to know the
time o f day and
if it is a Monday
o f a Sunday.
Obviously, a lot
o f p eo p le are
w orried
about
b anks,
s to c k
e x -
changes,
and other
m is s io n -
c ritic a l s e r
vices. M ost o f these
have already been thor
oughly tested and have,
in fact, passed! Other,
less critical businesses
m ay have som e Y2K.
problems, but because
they are less critical they
can (and will be fixed
without severe conse
quences.
The real thing we need to fear,
according to Cringely, is all the
people who are COUNTING on
Y2K problems and are going to
be very unhappy if they don’t
occur. Would anyone panic if
the power went out during an ice
storm for 8 hours? No, o f course
not. These things are to be ex
pected, they get fixed, and life
goes on. What will happen if the
power goes off on January 1,
2000, at 12:01 AM for 8 hours?
O bviously m any people will
overreact and panic could en
sue. But why should it? The
hype o f Y2K is undoubtedly
contributing to this potential
mass hysteria.
Cringely concluded by saying,
“So is it time to gather canned
goods and K ruggerands and
head for the hills? Probably not,
but it is very clear that there will
be Y2K problem s, and that
some o f them may be difficult
to resolve.”
So yes, it might be wise to save
your bank statem ents, have
some extra water around, per
haps some logs for the fireplace
- but you don’t really need to
stockpile those Kruggerands
and head for the hills.
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Other businesses will also fig
ure out what they need to do in
order to stay in business. Money
does talk.
Another concern receiving a lot
o f attention is that o f imbedded
processors, which control ev
erything from milling machines
to elevators. Sure, these imbed
ded processors have internal
Budget: Neighbors prove to be valuable asset
money. Between now and No
vember, make a list o f fifty
people you can depend on if
times get tight. And, because
what goes around com es
around, make a list o f fifty
people who can depend on YOU
if times get tight.
When I went to college, there
were many days I would go out
to a frozen car in need of a jump-
start. This became the measure of
true friendship: who would you
call to help you start your car?
And, for whom would you get out
o f your warm bed to start a car?
Your list of fifty people should
start with immediate neighbors.
Go over, knock on their door, and
talk about Y2K with them. Find
out how you can cooperate.
We have constructed a society
where we rely on people based
on money: we pay for counse
lors, cooks and cops. We may
like our neighbors, but we
don’t NEED them. Y2K ( or
any other unforeseen emer
gency) can change all that
overnight. And if it does, it
may signal a new era of com
munity cooperation. Which
isn’t a bad idea.
10
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