Tvwup 7,
How High is Up?
I he Dow Jones Industrial Aver­
age has entered record territory,
and it appears that the stock market
is likely to register yet another pos­
itive year-end quarter. In fact, the
market average has not recorded a
losing quarter since the last three
months of 1994. It is interesting to
note that the market has reached
lofty heights despite recurring con­
cern about interest rates, economic
activity and corporate profits, valu­
ation measures, speculative activi­
ty, mutual fund enthusiasm, etc.
While we know that neither trees
nor bull markets grow to the sky,
and the latter usually reverses just
when they are most widely accept­
ed and endorsed as the new status
quo, the current bull market may
still have somewhat further to run
before it is fully exploited.
The fact that September ended
with a gain had some historic sig­
nificance. Infact,since 1960,there
have been 13”up” Septembers and
11 were followed by a net gain in
the final quarter of the year.
On the other hand, the 21 “down”
Septembers since I960 were fol­
lowed by a gain in the fourth quarter
in 17 cases.
Perhaps the most noteworthy
point of these results is that the
market has a clear upward bias in
the fourth quarter (up 80% of the
time since 1960). While we have
no strong reason to argue against
positive market results for the re
mainder o f 1996, it would certainly
not rule out temporary corrections
along the way.
In fact, there have been sharp, if
brief, reactions in the early weeks
of the first three quarters o f 1996
and each was somewhat more se
vere than the prior one.
While this enlarging precedent
may no, continue in October, we
would at leas, be prepared for
reaction within the overall uptrend
pattern.
There is strong evidence of over­
bought conditions and these could
lead to market vulnerability and
short-term weakness.We would
expect any near term weakness or
sell off to be well contained.
In other words, we still expect to
see some selective upside for the
market averages. Translated into
the Dow Jones Average, this could
allow for a challenge of the 6100 to
6200 area late in the 4th quarter of
1996. It should be noted, however,
that there is risk of a 25% decline
once the ultimate highs of the major
averages are reached
One new piece of evidence in
this regard is additional aggressive
buying of US stocks by foreign
investors. Although we still be
lieve that foreign investors will
eventually become more involved
in the U.S. market, their recent wave
of investment is probably another
sign of the enthusiasm that often
precedes a cyclical market top.
Reflecting these indications, we
would prefer to raise some cash to
take advantage of future weakness
in the market.
This is not to say that there is no
potential for gains, but now more
than ever selection of the right sec­
tor and right stocks is of critical
importance.
Some groups that appear attrac­
tive are advertising aerospace/de-
fense, electrical equipment, oiI drill­
ers, services and selected retail,
railroad, machinery, specialty
chemical and biotechnology issues.
Areas to avoid for the short-term
are airlines, appliances, autos, print­
ing, toys and telephones.Maurice
Valdiviesocan be reached a, Merrill
Lynch in Lake Oswego at 503-699-
7201 or 800-667-9346. Se habla
espanol.
j¿S£$ i Æ
fe & w
In our own words
En nuestras pro prias palabras
Photo and article, written by Mandel it del Barco, appeared in Si Magazine, Spring 1996.
Source: New York Times News Service. Photo credit: Joe Rodriquez
Guadalupe Ramirez was 13 when
she arrived in Los Angeles with her
father, two sisters and one brother
They were joining her mother and
another brother who was dying o f
leukemia, and in the U.S they could
get the kind o f medical attention that
was impossible to find in Mexico
Back in Baja, California, Guada-
lupe had only gone to school through
the fifth grade, though she was at-
National Dia
de la Raza
S ean C riiz , E ditor
i l l P ori land O bservador
by
T
October 12 is a day that is cele­
brated or recognized for a variety of
reasons. Fundamentally, all who
note the day recognize it as the sym­
bol of one of the most far-reaching
and important events in world histo­
ry—the "discovery” o f America
by a European adventurer known
today as Christopher Columbus.
The repercussions of this event will
echo as long as mankind walks the
Earth.
For those whose ancestors emi­
grated from Europe, it is celebrated
as Columbus Day, and revered for
the opportunities it opened in the
“new" lands for the adventurous, the
oppressed, and the industrious. This
is history as it is popularly taught in
Anglo textbooks.
For Native Americans, i, marks
the beginning of the end of a way of
life. It is the genesis ofendless waves
ofgreedy, soul-less, double-dealing,
murdering racists who slaughtered
their way across the continent with
impunity. For those whose ancestors
survived, it is a national day of mourn­
ing.
National Dia de la Raza
For Hispanics, October 12 is the
National Dia de la Raza. For us, it is
a day to celebrate the creation of a
new culture and a new people, a
mixture of the “Old” and the "New”
worlds. And for us, it is a day of
mixed loyalties, when we try to cel­
ebrate what is good without forget­
ting about what is bad.
March on the Capitol
This year, the day is marked with
a march on the nation’s Capitol to
protest the anti-immigrant fever that
has resulted in legislation chiefly tar­
geting Hispanics. Some of the bills
and initiatives proposed are blatant­
ly discriminatory and attack immi­
grants who are in this country legally
along with those who are not.
Su voto es su voz
While many of the more outra­
geous proposals have been defeated
in various committees or have failed
as initiatives due to a lack of signa­
tures, the people and the powerful
forces that are behind them will be
back again and again. It is vitally
important that we all make our voic­
es heard in the coming election, and
in each election that follows.
Demagogues target Hispanics
The worst and most objectionable
of the proposals have originated from
members o f the Republican Party.
These forces would deny education­
al opportunities or health care to
children, locking them into a perma­
nent underclass. They would call for
legal immigrants to be deported if
they used more than twelve months
of public benefits such as child care
or self-improvement classes.
Armed robbers can count on be­
ing back out on the street in a matter
of months, but a legal Hispanic im­
migrant taking English classes would
be deported. This is the sort of racist
logic that requires a continuing and
public response, such as this march
on the Capitol. The Portland Obser­
vador endorses and supports this
demonstration of solidarity and pro­
test.
The “threat” from the North
When the subject of illegal immi­
gration is discussed, all fingers tend
to point South. The nation is not
concerned that the second largest
group of undocumented foreigners
here is Canadian. The Canadian
illegals speak english and look Anglo,
and they tend to celebrate October 12
from the same perspective as the
Anglo majority.
Hispanic consumer purchasing
power is $220 billion dollars at
present, and is expected to double in
only six years.
The number ofHispanics living in
the Northwest has increased by 23
percent since 1990, and is now well
over 360,000. The Williamette Val­
ley region o f Oregon is now the 37th
largest Hispanic market in the Unit­
ed States, with an annual purchasing
power approaching $ 2 billion.
This explosion of economic pow­
er is not due only to sheer numbers.
While many newly arrived Hispan-
ready supposed to be in high school
(the school principal sent her away
because for religious reasons she
refused to salute the flag) Speaking
only Spanish. Guadalupe was lost
on her first day in junior high north
o f the border She saw only numbers
in her incomprehensible math class.
Four years later, she still remembers
her first days in this country. "I
felt, " she recalls, "like I was on
another planet. ’’
Guadalupe won second place in
this year's National Association fo r
Bilingual Education student essay
competition. She is a student at
Sierra Pista High School in Baldwin
Park, California. She plans to be­
come a bilingual teacher after col­
lege
in
G uadalupe R amirez
“What do you want to be when
you grow up?" This is the question
my big brother asked me. I told him
I wanted to become a teacher.
My brother was in the bilingual
program at the high school, and I had
just arrived in the United States. He
told me how much I would love it.
He told me I would acquire the skills
I would need to study to become a
bilingual teacher.
I noticed my brother had a beau­
tiful new bicycle. When he told me
the history, I was deeply moved.
When he first started school, he rode
an old bicycle, and he parked it in the
parking lot One afternoon, some­
one stole it. He was so sad as he
walked home. Even though my par­
ents were sorry for him, they could
not buy him a new bicycle.
Within three days after the bicy­
cle was stolen, the students and teach­
ers in the bilingual program collect­
ed enough money to buy him a new
bicycle When they presented it to
him, they all cried with love. My
brother explained that this is what
distinguishes the program. Every­
one cares about each other, and they
work together to promote learning,
pride and self-worth.
In the bilingual program, every­
one is accepted. Love is there for all
the students, and individual differ­
ences are honored. People reach out
and help each other. No one feels
useless. All the students stretch to
understand and communicate with
each other.
My brother has not been with us
for two years He died o f leukemia,
but his memory remains alive inside
the bilingual program. The teachers
still tell his story, for it is one o f love,
and it inspires the others.
The program offers hope and vi­
sion to all people. It offers a chance
in its own collective memory. It of­
fers a past, present and future to
immigrants, whose very progress
depends on the ability to understand
these forces and bring them together
to produce a new life.
The bilingual program gave my
brother a chance to feel happy and
important. Even though his life was
ending, he learned to love. He
brought out the love in others, too.
He learned to speak two languages,
and he left a memory with two cul­
tures, a memory of what bilingual
education really is. Inside this
program, my brother learned to
live each moment fully and passion­
ately.
The bilingual program is impor­
tant to me because it gave my broth­
er a chance, and permitted him to
enjoy the last years o f his life. It has
given me the confidence and skills
to answer his question, “ What do
you want to be when you grow up?”
I will become a teacher, a bilingual
teacher. I will teach to keep my broth­
er’s memory alive, as an example to
all people of what bilingual educa­
tion is, and how the outside world
should be.
I n ( )u r()w n W ords ( E n N nest ras
l ’ roprias Palabras) xx ill be a reg­
ular I'eatureol' l lie P ortland O b­
servador, o ffe ring to Hispanic
yo u th th e o p p o rtu n its toexpress
their thoughts and feelings— and
to describe th e ir experiences—-
asa L atino in a predom inantly
Anglo environm ent. The O b ­
servador encourages o u r young
readerstosubm it theiroxx n xx r i l ­
ing and a photograph and xxe
xx ill try to find spaee in o u r pag­
es fo r you.
Mexican rebels enter literary war
M exican rebels this week
switched their struggle from the
battlefield to the field of literature.
In an apparent bid to match the
poetry-rich com m uniques o f
Shakespeare-loving rebel Zapatista
Subcommander Marcos in the
southeastern state ofChiapas, Mex­
ico’s new EPR rebels in southern
Mexico weighed in with their own
verse.
In a communique on Friday, the
Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR)
departed from the blunt Marxist dog­
ma of its early statements to quote
Bertolt Brecht, the Sword o f
Damocles and even two words of
English, “o f course.”
The three-page statement accused
the government in the southern state
of Oaxaca of seeking to intimidate
journalists who covered the EPR
“The pressure to reveal sources...
is asking the journalist to betray his
professional and human ethic. It is
like pressing the priest to reveal se­
crets heard at confession, or demand­
ing that a defence lawyer give away
a professional secret,” it said
The statement, signed by the
rebels’ apparent spokesman Com­
mander Francisco, came at a time
when weeks have gone by without
an EPR attack
In the southern state o f Guerrero,
it called a unilateral ceasefire last
week, less than three months after it
first appeared.
Meanwhile, Marcos, whose ri­
val Zapatista rebels rose up in Jan­
uary 1994 in a brief burst of fight­
ing, has lowered the tone of his
once-celebrated writings.
He issued a one-word statement
on Wednesday, that said simply
“UU Y!!”- a sarcastic Mexican ex­
pression meaning “How scary”—
in response to a government threat
Bienvenidos
October 12 is the National Dia de
la Raza. Celebrate it as you will, but
not blindly. The Hispanic communi­
ties celebrate this day because this is
our home, our ancient place, and we
welcome you, so long as you are
considerate o f your neighbor. Viva
la Raza!
Hispanic economic power exploding
Across the United States, the His­
panic population is surging in a
wave of cultural and business ex­
pansion that is expected to acceler­
ate well into the 21 st century. Cur­
rently representing more than 10
per cent of the nation’s population,
Hispanics will become the nation’s
largest minority in less than fifteen
years
The number ofbusinesses owned
by Hispanics have tripled in just
eight years, growing from 250,000
nationwide in 1987 to 720,000 in
1995.
1*»
ÌJ À .l
ics are handicapped in this country
by an inability to communicate in
English, many have the advantage
of being both bilingual and bicul-
tural.
Stereotypes aside, Hispanics as
a people are industrious and entre­
preneurial. The man or woman who
labors in the field for meager sub­
sistence will not work less hard
when given the opportunity to move
upward.
The Hispanic people are a vital
and essential resource tothe growth
of our nation.
Feliz Cumpleaños
Happy Birthday
Alfredo Tyler Cruz
13 años de edad
Tu papá te ama mucho
Joven Hispano
Hispanic young man
S U B S C R IP T IO N
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