8
TnE MORNING OREGONIAX, SATURDAY, OCTOBER" 30, 1920
CONTROL IN SENATE
TO BE
Mark Sullivan Says Majority
of Eight Is Likely.
TWENTY-TWO BATTLES ON
Republicans, Thinks Political
Expert, Probably Will Lose 2
and' Gain 5 Places.
(Continued Prom First Page.)
others, this is true. But. it does not
follow that thl apparent advantage
of the republicans 1 very real. The
true situation will be'revealed by a
survey of the 34 contests to fill Va
cancies -which will be,, determined on
Tuesday. '
la the 84 contests next Tuesday,
the senators who now fill the seats
concerned are divided as follows:
Democrat a ........,............ 19
Republicans 13
Among these 19 democratic seats
nine are in southern states, which
always go democratic. Without any
doubt these nine contests will result
in favor of the democrats. Thesenine
seats are in the following: states:
Virginia. Georgia.
North Carolina, Alabama (I),
fiouth Carolina, Louisiana,
Florida, Arkansas. -
There remain ten democratic seats
which may conceivably go one way or
the other. These ten democratic seats
are In:
Maryland,
Kentucky,
Oklahoma,
Colorado,
South Dakota,
Idaho,
Nevada,
Arizona,
California,
Oregon.
Tkree Itepnbileans to Win.
Just as I have said that there are
nine democratic seats which are not
really subject to contest, so among
the 15 seats now held by republicans
and to be contested on Tuesday there
are thre In which the republicans
will win just as surely as the south
ern democrats will win. These three
are:
Pennsylvania, Kansas.
Vermont,
This leaves 12 republican seats as
to whlchr-there are real contests.
Connecticut,
New Hampshire,
New York,
Ohio.
Indiana,
Illinois. -
Wisconsin,
Iowa.
M issouri,
Utah,
North Dakota,
Washington.
These 13 seats now held by repub
licans, in which there are real con
tests, added to the ten seats now held
by democrats, in which there are real
contests, makes in all 22 real con
tests. Let us consider first what chance
the republicans have to retain all the
seats they now have, taking the 12
republican seats as to which there
are real contests, and beginning in
the east.
Nrir Hampshire.
First of all New Hampshire: In
New Hampshire, Geirge H. Moses is
running for re-election. Normally,
until very recently. New Hampshire
has been considered a safe republican
state; but within the past few years
it has had one democratic senator,
and In 1916 Wilson carried the state,
so that New Hampshire must now be
considered as normally among the
doubtful states.
Not only this, but it must be ad
mitted that Senator Moses' chances
of winning are, in some degree, less
than the normal chances of a re
publican In New Hampshire. He was.
and Is, a "bitter-ender" as to the
league of nations, and he was op
posed to woman's suffrage.
Senator Moses' opponent Is Ray
mond Stevens, a progressiva dem
ocrat, who a few years ago served in
congress and who more recently
served as a member of the' shipping
board by appointment of President
Wilson. The probability is that Moses
will win, but the contest Is close.
Connecticut.
In Connecticut the case of Senator
Brandegee 1 almost identical with
that of Senator Moses. Senator Bran
dege was, and is, a "bitter-ender"
on the league of nations and also
opposed to woman's suffrage. In his
opposition to woman's suffrage in
the senate he expressed himself with
a violence of language that made the
friends of woman's suffrage bitter
gainst him.
Senator Brandegee's democratic op
ponent Is Augustine Lonerpan, a
Hartford lawyer, who is now serving
his sixth year in the lower house of
congress. As a congressman he has
made the reputation In his state of
being willing and diligent In attend
ing to business the people of his state
have in Washington, a painstaking
quality which makes friends for a
candidate.
Moreover, Mr. Lonergan is in favor
With the Irish element of his state
and to that degree is supposed to bo
free of that curse of Irish disapproval
which is hurting the democrats in
every part of the country this year.
This Connecticut contest will be close.
It is universally admitted by repub
licans that Brandegee will run at least
fifteen thousand votes behind Hard
ing. The outcome, therefore, depends
largely on the presidential contest.
If Harding's majority in Connecticut
falls below 15,000 Brandegee will lose.
Nfw York,
In New York almost the same situ
ation exists. The republican senator
who is fighting for re-election. Wads
worth, was not a "bitter-ender," but
he was opposed to prohibition and
woman's suffrage, and Is now ppposTd
by the friends of both those causea
It is not believed, however, that Wads
worth is in as serious danger as Moses
and Brandegee are. In fact, the prob
ability Is that while Wadsworth may
run behind Harding, he will neverthe
less be safe. New York should go
heavily republican.
Ok In. t
Come next to Ohio. The question
there is whether a republican or a
democrat will be elected to fill the
vacancy created by Hardings retire
ment. This outcome, of course, will
depend largely on how Ohio goes in
the general election. If Ohio had a
carefully discriminating electorate, the
dumocrats would have a better chance
to win for the senatorial candidate
than lor Cox. Of the two candidates.
Willis, republican, and Julian, demo
crat, the latter U decidedly the better
man. Julian is a successful business
man, wllb an interest in progressive
REPUBLICAN
! things, and would make a decided ad-'4!
- - w Lilt. 1 II 11.1 i n an UIU
fashioned politician, whose chief as
set is a gift for rotund oratory in
country schoolhouses.
Indiana.
Come next to Indiana. Here the
republican, Watson, is under the
severest sort of attack and there is
not a republican leader In Indiana
but admits that Watson will run at
least twenty thousand behind Hard
ing. If If were a normal year, there Isn't
a (Jpubf In the world that Watson
would be defeated. If he wins at all,
it will only be because he is swept in
"y "an or tne presidential year.
Watson's opponent is that veteran
aemocrat, Thomas Taggart.
Taggart has a verv different nnai
t:on In Indiana this year from what
s lormeny been the case. News
papers and Individuals who years ago
ucu iu revue xaggart are this year
either supporting him outright or else
n. taggart as Taggart is
one thing; but Taggart in comparison
with Watson is another. Taggart will
get the votes of many of the best busi
ness men In the state. Bxcept for the
republican landslide, he would win.
; Illinois.
Illinois comes next. Tn fhi Df,i,
the republicans in all probability will
""' ineir senatorship. In spite of
me recent iactional excitement, the
repumican candidate, William B. Mc
Kinley, seems easily ahead of his
democratic opponent.
VI-ooln
In Wisconsin one of the best men
in the senate in either party, a man
who would figure In any just list of
the ten best senators we have had
In recent years. Senator Lenroot, is
up for re-election. Normally, In such
a state as Wisconsin he should win
handsomely, but he Is being pursued
vindictively by La Follette.
La. Follette has introduced an inde
pendent candidate, who will take a
very large part of the republican elec
torate away from Lcnrnnt it ,.u
be
-Pity for Lenroot to lose, but
no Question that he is lnih
most serious danger. The only corn
s'" ,Ln.the "'tuatlon is that If he
should lose, the democratic nominee,
tLPaul a Relnsh, who would in
that case win, Is a high-class man. He
was recently minister to -China and
formerly a teacher in the University
of Wisconsin. - ' ,
Iowa.
.?MKvnff the MlssisiPP. In Iowa the
n ,an ,senatr. Cummins, is a
Oumte . fr ""'lection. Senator
hmnTCVaifroad" T5
republican tic-iro .. .
hyanwdicap,.however, u'ndoubte?-1
Mlssoorl.
InriSSOUrl Se"tor Spencer is the
e?ectionanT, ?andidat seeking re
election. -lt is generally admitted in
frabSrvUrbeiriatHSF,enCer w"
bl h'nd th "St of the repub
lican ticket and Missouri is so close
to being a doubtful state that he can
not afford much qf a handicap. The
ZT":,n have a "
"orh Dakota.
In North Dakota Or. E. F Ladd
nominally has the republican nomina
tion but his support is really that of
6 Nn-Partisan league, and, al
though Dr. Ladd nrnhoKi,. iii
he will come to Washington without
any material obligations that the re-
i.uu.ns can depend on. to help
them make a majority.
Washington.
In Washington Senator Wesley L.
Jones is a candidate for re-election.
Jones will run behind the rest of the
rcpuuiiuan ticKet. He was the chair
man of the senate committee on com
merce and In that capacity took cer
tain official positions in -j ,
Pacific coast shlppihg that have made
enemies for him among an element
that is strong in- the business circles
of Seattle.
Democratic Seats Now In Doubt.
This completes the survev of the
republican chances of holding scats
mm. iney now nave. ii
turn to their chances of makinir
gains from the democrats.
Maryland.
In Maryland the sitting democratic
senator, John Walter Smith, is a can
didate for re-election. He is a fine
old man, much loved In his state.
Maryland lies close to the canital and
Senator Smith has always been dili
gent in attending to the rather large
mass of business that Maryland cit
izens have with the departments In
Washington. But Senator Smith voted
for the prohibition amendment, and
Maryland is one of the states where
the "wet" element has considerable
powe. Also Senator Smith voted
against woman's suffrage. His re
publican opponent, O. E. Weller, will
be the beneficiary of both these facts.
A little while ago it looked as If
Maryland would go republican. At
this writing, however, the trend in
Maryland is slightly in the direction
of the democrats, and the republicans
certainly cannot rely on any definite
hopes of winning a seat here. The
well-informed leaders in both par
ties do .not claim a .majority 'ofover
2000 either way.
Kentucky. '
Kentucky is one of the states In
which the republicans have, most
hope of winning a senatorship away
from the democrats. Toa democratic
candidate is the sitting member, J.
Crepps Wickliffe Beclstnan. His re
publican opponent, Richard Hrnst, is
a very popular man, and will prob
ably get more than the normal re
publican vote. This Kentucky case
of Ernst is almost the solitary case
where n republican candidate for
senator is expected to run as strong
as, or stronger than, Harding will.
South Dakota.
In !outh Dakota the present sen
ator whose term expires is a curious
person whose autobiography in the
Congressional directory consists of
SULLIVAN SAYS SURE REPUBLICAN ELECTORAL VOTES
ARE FULLY DOUBLE SURE DEMOCRATIC. ONES.
Necessary to elect. 266. It will be observed that Harding has
within 13 of enough sure republican electoral votes to give
him the election. Cox would have to carry every one of the doubt
ful states in order to win. , As a matter of fact, Harding is more
likely to carry many of these doubtful states than Cox is. In
making up the list.of doubtful sates I have included practically
every state in which there is anything in the nature of a contest
at all, every state which the democrats have even the remotest
chance of winning. All this is explained in the text, where will be
found a much closer analysis than is attempted in this list.
Cox Statea
Alabama.
(Georgia
Florida v. :..
Virginia i
Mississippi -t. . . . ,
North Carolina J?-....
South Carolina
12
14
12
10
12
9
Louisiana 10
Arkansas.; 9
Texas 20
Oklahoma 10
Tennessee '. 12
Total 136
Hardinc; States
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts. . .
New York.......
Pennsy lvania. . . .
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota. ......
North l.kota. . . .
South 1- kota. . . .
Nebraski
L
l -i " , . :
il STATES UN WrilCrl SENATORIAL ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD THIS YEAR i
l
' - Washington L ' . : J-V " ' I
L IDAHO I ( I VafrV-tK f fZy' VJSAjS
k o. vta 1 n k ("t p Lfl'tMrl
It-AL-' . KANSAS j MO
arizona I N illEEir-ar '
The man anonat stairs which will, vote for senators to fill the 34 vacancies which occnr this year. Nineteen tea tM,
at present occupied by democrats, 13 are held by republicans. Mark Sullivan in his accompanying- analysis
the present distribution.
.likely to go.
these 22 words: "Edwin S. Johnson
of Yankton. S. D. : democrat; born in
Owen county, Indiana, a long time
ago; was always proud of his an
cestors and family." The author of
this odd . narrative of his own
achievements declined to run again,
and the democratic nomination went
to a highly respected and able law
yer, U. S. G. Cherry.
The republican nominee is the
present governor of the state, Peter
Norbeck. The race is further com
plicated by the, independent candi
dacy of one of the oldest figures in
Ajuencau puiiiiL-s, a man nunieu
Richards, who wrote that extraordi
nary document, the South Dakota
primary law. Also there is another
candidate running independent, mak
ing four in alL While South Dakota
Is expected to go strongly for Hard
ing, it might readily happen that
either the democratic candidate or
the Independent candidate, Ayres,
would win the senatorship., . -
Oklahoma.
The republicans have occasionally
boasted of prospects of winning a
senatorship trom the democrats in
Oklahoma. It is true that on the
senatorship the democrats In that
state are injured by factionalism.
Senator Gore . was defeated for, re
nomination by his own party because
of his anti-Wilson and. anti-league
attitude in one of the bitterest con
tests ever held In that state of in
tense partisanship." ..
Many of Gore's friends, as well in
many democrats who don't like Wil
son and: the league of nations, will
undoubtedly satisy their revenge by
refraining from Supporting Scott Fer
ris, who took the nomination away
from Gore.
The republican candidate," Harreld,
has had no further public experience
than part "of one term in congress.
The election as a whole in Oklahoma
this year is not likely to vary greatly
from normal, and in Oklahoma any
thing near a normal result would cer
tainly not give this senatorship to
the republicans. If the republicans
should win this senatorship. It
must be interpreted as a strong
blow aealnst the , league of na-
tions. of somewhat the same nature
of the victory of Tom Watson in
Georgia, an incident that was due
wholly to anti-Wilson and anti-league
sentiment among old-time democrats,
rrtan.
Next, Utah. One of the real war
horses of the republican party and
one of the ablest men in public life,
Senator Smoot, is a .candidate for re
election. All the information from
Utah is to the effect that he Is having
no easy time. The great probability
is, however, that local recognition
of Smoot's great ability, added to lo
cal appreciation of the high position
which Smoot has long had In the sen
ate, -in his party and in the country
generally, will be enough to pull Smoot
through. His situation, however, has
been a matter of constant concern to
the republicans. His opponent is a
democrat now sitting in the lower
house of congress for his fourth year,
Milton H. Welling.
Colorado.
Colorado is one of the most diffi
cult states to make predictions about.
In addition to the two regular party
nominees there are three independent
nominees and one of these inde
pendents' is the present democratic
senator, Charles S Thomas. Senator
Thomas had decided to retire and
refused to enter the democratic pri
maries. After the primaries were
over, however, he decided to run on
an independent ticket, with a plat
form that is powerfully and irrecon
cilably anti-league of nations.
Senator Thomas Is a scholar and a
sound lawyer, with a free mind, a
racy personality and a gift of lan
guage that puts him among the most
interesting, as well as the most able,
members of the senate. The regular
republican nominee in Colorado is
Samuel Nicholson, a mining man, who
Iowa is
Kansas.
10
Wyoming. . . .
Washington.
Oregon
Idaho
California. . .
3
7
5
4
13
253
Total ,
Doubtful States
New Hampshire..
4
I
24
15
S
13
8
18
6
4
3
3
3
4
5
14
142
Connecticut. .
Delaware.
Ohio
Indiana . .......
Maryland .
Kentucky
West Virginia.
Missouri
Colorado.
Montana .......
New Mexico. .
Arizona ,
Nevada
Ctah
Rhode Island. ,
New Jersey. . . .
Total.
H r " DAKOTA I -'Ci
The letters "D" and on the above map indicate the party . that now holds tne
MAXIMUM OF ELECTORAL
VOTES FOR COX ESTI
MATED AT 179.
Necessary to elect, 266. It will
be observed that even if Cox
should get every state that he
has even a faint chance of car-
rylnge would have only five
more electoral votes than
enough to win. But the as
sumption that Cox can carry
every one of these states listed
as possible Cox states would be
foisting a miracle on the law
of changes. As a matter of fact,
the largest number of electoral
votes that Cox is seriously like
ly to get is 179.' It might ' fall
as low as 142, It might be"
just barely possible to figure.,
out a way for Cox to win by
adding New Hampshire with
four electoral votes to hls list,
but the assumption that "Cox
can carry every oneof the
states listed as possible .Cox
states, a-nd then, in addition,
carry, -let us say,,-New Hamp
shire, would be foisting a mira
cle on the law of chances. As a
matter of fact, the largest num
ber of electoral votes that. Cox
is seriously likely to get is
about 171. It might fall as low
as 113. -
Certain Co states
Virginia........... 12
Alabama 12
Georgia ,. 14
. North Carolina- 12
South Carolina. 9
Florida 6
Mississippi 10 t
Louisiana 10
Arkansas : . 9 "
Texas ... 20
., , - - 114
Practically certain Cox
states , -Tennessee
12
Very probable Cox states
Oklahoma JO
Possibly Cox states (In
the order named)-:
Utah 4 -'-V
Kentucky .....13
Maryland s-" .
Missouri 18 .
Arizona 3
Montana 4 '-. V'
New Mexico 3 ' "'
Indiana .' 15
Ohio 24
West Virginia. . . - 8 -,
Colorado -' g
Nevada - 3
Connecticut 7
California 13 .
Rnode Island 5
New Jersey 14
135
Total 271
30 years ago was a populist and in
his later years has become one .of
the most conservative of republicans.
He will get the bulk of the ordinarily
conservative republican vote. The reg
ular democratic nominee is Tully
Scott, a justice of the supreme court,
who has made a reputation that com
jnends him to labor and to other lib
eral elements among the voters.
Idaho.
Idaho Is one of the states In which
the republicans count with confidence
on making gains from the democrats.
The present democratic'senator, John
F. Nugent, was elected two years ago
by a majority of less than iOOO. Nor
mally that 1000 votes would seem an
easy handicap for the republicans to
overcome; moreover, the "republican
trend in Idaho this year is as strong
as It is elsewhere and it may. carry
in the republican candidate for sen
ator. '
The republican candidate is ex-Governor
Gooding. At one stage of the
campaign the Non-Partisan league had
a separate candidate for senator, but
lately they have withdrawn him. Dur
ing the latter part of the campaign
in Idaho it has seemed increasingly
possible for the republicans to recover
a senatorial seat here.
Oregon.
Oregon has one of the most inter
esting senatorial situations in the
country. The sitting member. Cham
berlain, is one of the ablest senators
in his party and is popular in Oregon
so popular. Indeed that, although
Oregon is sure to go republican this
year by fully 35,000, it is nevertheless
quite possibleVor Chamberlain to be
eleoted by virtue of many of the sajne
republican votes that will give Hard
ing his majority over Cox.
The republican candidate in Oregon
is Robert N. Stanfield, an ambitious
and likeable sheep raiser, who has
grown rich in that occupation through
his talent for organization and his
understanding of market situations.
Although comparatively young, he has
been a member of the legislature sev
eral times and was once epeaker of
the house.
-The tar'ff on wool cuts a good deal
of figure in Oregon politics and Stan
field, of course, will be the beneficiary
of republican - apprehension on that
point. Undoubtedly Stanfield has been
growing steadily. Also, just recently.
Chamberlain's chance of winning has
been injured by the appearance in the
f'eld of an independent democratic
candidate, running on a straight pro
league platform.
Nevada.
In Nevada the present democratic
senator, Charles B. Henderson, is op
posed by ex-Governor Tasker L.
Oduie. Here, as nearly everywhere
else, the democrat would be the fa
vorite were it not for the opposition
to the Wilson administration. It is
also true that Oddie Is a popular man.
Nevada is one of the very few states
in which the democrats have a better
organisation than the republicans.
About all that can be said about this
senatorial election In Nevada Is that
it will be very close.
, . Arizona. -
In Arizona the sitting 'democratic
senator,' Marcus Aurel'us Smith, is a
candidate for re-election. His oppo
nent is Ralph Cameron. - In this state
the conditions are much the same as
in Nevada and tne result will.be close.
California,-.
In California the Bitting democratic
senator, James D. Phelan, is a candi
date for re-election. His opponent,
Samuel Shortridge, a San Francisco
lawyer, is an old-time standpat re
publican who in the recent realign
ment of California politics arising out
of Johnson's reconciliation with the
old guard, now has Johnson's support
Undoubtedly there is a large .num
ber of thoughtful republicans In Cali
fornia who regard Phelan a the bet
ter candidate and will support him.
In addition to that, Phelan, . on his
own account, is deservedly one of the
most popular men in the state. He
will have an effective organization
and hosts of friends working far him.
Phelan will run at least 60,000 votes
ahead of Cox and may readily run
100,000 votes ahead. Unlesa Harding's
majority In California is over 100,000,
Phelan will return.
The best judgment, taking these
senatorial contests as a whole, is that
the republican losses will be two and
their gains five. This would rpake
the next senate: republicans, 52; dem
ocrats, 44. ; -,' ' '
ENT0N HAS RALLY
ENTHUSIASTIC MEETING HELD
BY REPUBLICANS.
: , ' w
Strong Appeal Made for Stanfield,
League Condemned and Senator
Chamberlain Criticised.
WARRENTON, Or., Oct. 29. (Spe
cial.) An enthusiastic republican
rally was held In the local theater
last night. G. C. Fulton, Otto Erick
son and Charles Halderman were the
speakers and Or Clifford Barlow pre
sided. Mr. Fulton made a strong ap-
Ipeal for Robert N. Stanfield, repub
lican candidate for United States
senator. Otto Erlckson, an ex-service
man, condemned the league of nations
and supported the republicans. : Mr.
Halderman explained what Senator
Chamberlain had done, for Clatsop
county and then noted a Number of
things the senator had neglected.
The fact that Clatsop county had
to donate the naval base site "at a
cost of 1100,000 and that the forts at
the mouth of the Columbia ' were
manned with obsolete guns and with
out adequate military strength, while
government money had been spent
freely -in southern states, was attrib
uted to certain senatorial neglect.
Some republican candidates for
county offices were present and they
were formally introduced to the audi
ence by the chairman.
REPUBLICAN VICTORY SEEN
State Chairman Declares Oregon
Will Vote Straight Ticket. .'
Thomas H. Tongue. Jr., republican
state chairman, yesterday called upon'
republicans of the state to put the
finishing touches on the "state cam
paign. "The republicans will win a great
victory in Oregon for the entire tick
et next Tuesday," he declared.
' "The next two days are the most
important of the campaign. and I am
glad to say that reports received at
state headquarters from every coun
ty of the state show that the clean,
constructive campaign of the repub
lican standard bearers has met with
favor from the voters.
"The people have decided that they
want a change of administration.
They believe that the republican can
didates will be able to acomplish
more for the nation than the demo
cratic candidates. They want an eco
nomical, constructive businesslike ad
ministration, backed up by a repub
lican congress which, will re-enact
a protective tariff, introduce the
budget system, restore our constitu-'
tional form of government, enact pro
gressive legislation, and above all
to eliminate extravagance and waste
from our national affairs.
"From, every county chairman with
whom I have talked in the last two
days I gef reports of wonderful
gains that Stanfield has made. The
people have determined to. answer
Harding's call for A republican sen
ate and they are not going to turn
him down on the-'flrst request that
he has made directly of Oregon."' .
EVANS FAVORS' MARKET ACT
Object of Proposed Bill Declared
Worthy of Consideration.
Provision of the State Market Com
mission act giving the market direc
tor supervision over co-operative
marketing association exist'ng un
der the laws of the state is deemed to
be one of th wisest features of the
proposed law, by Walter H. Evans,
- X .
'including two from Alabama, are
indicates the probable changes In
senatorship not how the stata ia
district attorney of Multnomah coun
ty, who gives his approbation to the
measure as .. a piece of constructive
legislation. ..
' In a letter to Robert E. Smifh. Mr.
Evans states that after studying the
proposed' measure he has no hesita
tion ln going on receord for it and
believes that objects -of the bill are
entirely worthy of the consideration
of a government, either state or na
tional, la fact he states all' of the
functions of the proposed,.' bill are
at present exercised -to some, degree
by the national government.'
TARIFF NEEDS AHfe".' l5TOeLD
. - v
Voting of Straight Republican
Ticket Urged by McArthurr
Addressing a large ""crowd at the
Falling school last night. Represen
tative McArthur uiacussed general
campaign issues and urged election
of the entire republican ticket. He
dwelt upon the necessity of a tariff
for the protection of American labor
and industry and called attention to
the constructive record otHhe present
republican congress. He also dwelt
upon his own record in congress, re
ferring to the progressive and hu
manitarian, legislation which he has
favored. C. C. Peck also addressed
the meeting. - - s
The McArthur headquarters yes
terday received encouraging reports
from different sections of the city.
A number of straw votes, showing
McArthur fai in the lead of his demo
cratic opponent, were reported. A
number of bets at odds of 10 to 8 and
10 to 7 on McArthur were rumored
last night.
REPUBLICAN VOTES URGED
- .
Oregon Voter Issues Recommenda
tion on, Coming Election. '
The Oregon Voter issued its recom
mendations on the electron yesterday.
The Voter advocates the complete
republican ticket and for supreme
court justice recommends writing in
the name of George M. Brown, and
for attorney-general recommends
writing in the name of I. H. Van
Winkle. For city offices, the Voter
gives George L. Baker first choice
for mayor and Herbert Gordon sec
end choice. Its ticket for commis
sioners consists of(f. M. Mann and
T. L. Perkins. It recommend sup
port of all the city measures. On
state measures the Voter recommends
the 60-day legislative session. in
creasing terms of county officers, the
port consolidation bill and the Roose
velt bird refuge bill. The Voter" ad
vises voting against all other state
measures.
. . v
Prohibitionist to Speak.
Johnson Smith, federal prohibition
enforcement officer, will speak at
Lents tonight at 8 o'clock. Other ad
dresses will be made by William D.
Bennett and Norman S. Richards.
CANDIDATES FOR SENATE TO BE VOTED ON NEXT
TUESDAY.
This Is a' complete list of the republican and democratic candidates-
for United States senator in the states in which there are
senatorial contests. In addition, the candidates running on inde
pendent tickets are given where they are important. There are,
of course, many candidates running on minor tickets, who are un
important, notably ln Maryland and Virginia, where negroes are
running on what they call "Illy-black" tickets.
A lab "ma .
Oscar Underwood .(I.)
Thomas Hefflin (I.) for term ex
piring 1925.
- Arkansas
T. H. Caraway :D.) - "
Arisona
Ralph- H. Cameron (R.) ." '
Mark 'Smith (D.); .
California
Samuel Shjwtridge (R.) .
James IX Phelan (D.)
Colorado -
Samuel D. Nicholson (R.)
Tully Scott (D.)
Charles & Thomas (N.)
Connect len t
Frank B. Brandegee (R.)
Augustine Lonergan (D.)
Florida
John M. Cheney (R.)
Duncan U. Fletcher (D.)
Georgia
C. H. Williams (R.)
1 Tom Watson(D.)
Idaho ' ' ,
F. R. Gooding (R.)
John F. Vugent (D.)
Illinois
' W. B. McKinlev (R.)
Peter A. Wallin (D.)
Indiana "
James E. Watson (R.)
Thomas Taggart (D.) "
Iowa
Albert B. Cummins (R.) "
Claude R. Porter (D.)
Kansas . " - -
CharlesCurtis (R.)
George H. Hodges (D.) "- " '
r Kentucky ,
Richard B. Ernst fR.) vT"
. J. C. W Beckham (D.) . '
Louisiana
. Edward Broussard (D.)
Majryland
O. E. Weller (R.)
John Walter Smith (D.) '
M 1mm our I
Kf Men P. Spencer (R.) '
Breckenridge Long (D.)
ELECTORAL VOTE, COX
19; HARDING 352
Mark Suflivan Predicts Re
publican Victory.
CLOSE ANALYSIS IS MADE
Possible Minimum of Electoral
Vote for Cox and Ills Pos
sible Maximum Put at 2 71.
Continqed From First Page.)
credited to Cox. This makes a total
of 126. . ..
Border Spates. to Be Close.
We now come to the five so-called
border states:
Kentucky ............................ 13
Maryland .'.' 8
Missouri IS
Oklahoma 10
West Virginia h
Total 57
These border states are commonly
closely contested and they will be as
closely contested this year as any
time before. In these states there is
no sign whatever of the landslide
which the republicans are claiming
elsewhere. In discussing these states
with both the democratic managers
and republican managers you rarely
find one who will claim any of these
states by mora than a few thousand
majority.
Of these five border states I am
Inclined to think that Missouri and
West Virginia are most likely to go
republican, leaving Oklahoma, Ken
tucky and Maryland likely to go
democratic. Tn e degree of their like
lihood to go democratic Is In the
order named. I think Oklahoma is
pretty surely to go democratic. Ken
tucky a little less sure, and Maryland
the least sure of the three.
Giving these three states to Cox,
we now have a total of 157.
We now have behind us all the
states which are in any degree
southern or in any degree tradition
ally democratic. From this point on
we enter that three-fourths of the
country which is either traditionally
republican or doubtful. In this sec
tion of the country there are 11
states which' Cox has some chance
"of carrying. Please mark that I put
it that way "Cox has some chance
of carrying" them. I don't mean by
any means to -classify these states as
probably democratic. I merely say
thai. Cox has some chance of carry
ing them, and that they are the only
states in the section we are now con
sidering that he has any chance of
carrying.
Nine Noted As Possibilities. '
These 11 states, set down in the
order of Cox's chances ro carry them,
are as follows:
Utah 4!Ohfo" 24
Arizona 3 Colorado 6
Montana 4'Nevada 3
New Mexico 3 Connecticut ...... 7
Indiana ......... 15i Rhode Island.... ni
. New Jersey 14
Total : 88
If Cox should carry every one of
these states, in. addition to all that
I have already ""given him. he would
then have a total of 245 ejectoral
votes.
But It cannot be predicted that Cox
will carry all these states. I have set
these states down and this figure oi
8S electoral votes down as the max
imum he can get in the territory
outside of the south and outside of
the border tates.
Let us now go back and assume
that in these border states Cox should
carry the two which I have given to
Harding namely, Missouri, with 18,
and West Virginia, with 8. On this
assumption, adding these 26 to the
245 already given, we would have
271 electoral votes.
This 271 electoral votes Is the out
side maximum that the most opti
mistic democrat could possibly give
to Cox.
Possible Cox Maximum 271.
As I say, I give 271 as the outside
figure of the number of votes that
Cox can possibly get. To give him
that number it is necessary to put,
as I have put it. ln the lists of states
which he has a bare chance of carry
ing such states as New Jersey and
Connecticut.
We now have 271 as the maximum
number of electoral votes that Cox is
likely to win and 114 as the minimum
number. He may get as many as
Nevada
Tasker Oddie fR.)
C. B. Henderson D.)
Miss Anne Martin (Ind. R.)
XeW Hampshire
George H. Moses (R.)
Raymond B. Stevens (D.)
Sfevr York
James W. Wadsworth (R.)
Harry C. Walker (D.) .
North Carolina
A. E. Holton R.)
Lee S. Overman (D.)
North Dakota '
E. F. Ladd (R.)
H. P. Perry (D.)
Ohio
Frank B. Willis (R.)
W. A. Julian (D.)
Oklahoma
John William Herrald (R.)
Scott Ferris (D.)
Orfcon
Robert Stanfield (R.)
George E. Chamberlain (D.)
Pennsylvania V
Boies Penrose (R.)
John A. Farrell (E.)
South. Carolina
Ellison D. Smith (D.)
South Dakota
Peter Norbeck (R.)
U. S. G. Cherry (D.)
T. H. Ayres (N. P. league)
R. O. Richards (Ind. R.)
Utah
Reed Smoot (R.)
M. H. Welling (D.)
Vermont
W. P. Dillingham (R.
Howard E. Shaw (D.)
Washington
Wesley L. Jones (R.) J?
George F. Cottrill . vD.)
Virginia
Carter Glass CD.) for term ex
piring 1925".
S Wisconsin
. Irvine L. Lenroot R.)
Paul Reinsch (D.)
James Thompson (Ind.)
Frank Weber (Soc);
1271, or ha ma v nt an rw . 111
Within this maximum and minimum
It takes pretty careful steering to try
to make a guess and within this
figure it must be, to a certain degree,
a matter of guessing as to exactly
what Cox's electoral vots is likely
to be. , v -
The best Judgment I can arrive at
Is that Cox, In addition to the ten
southern states and three of the border
states, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Mary
lands may also get Utah, Arizona
Montana and New Mexico with a totai
of 14. This would give him a total
of lil. He is more likely to fall
below than go above this num
ber. If he should go above this
figure at all. It is most likely to be
because of OVest Virginia. During
the last few days of the campaign
est Virginia has beconie an exceed
ingly doubtful state. It is one of the
.Very few states ln which the demo
crats have dollar for dollar as much
as the repubUcans. If we give West
Virginia to Cax that will make 17s
as the outside number of electoral
votes Cox is likely to gat.
Victory Would Be Two to One.
Assuming that this number is ap
proximately correct, let us consider
just how "overwhelming" the repub
lican victory will be. If Cox gets
179, Harding will get S62. That
nearly two to one. and two to one.
It must be confessed. Is a rather
overwhelming v'ctory.
Let us now measure it in terms of
the number of states carried. If Cox
gets these 179 electoral votes he will
have carried 18 states and the repub
licans will nave carried 30. This is a
little more than one-third of the total
number of states. It is not a great
distance from the sarr proportion
hat I have already mentioned, two
to one.
The republicans frequently say that
their victory is going to be over
whelming and occasionally also that
It ts going to be unprecedented. When
they say that their victory Is going
to be unprecedented, they mean by
that that It will exceed Taft's victory
over Bryan in 1908 and Roosevelt's
victory over Parker In 1904. This
last victory Is the. standard which the
more hopeful republicans have set
themselves to excel. This defeat of
Parker by Roosevelt in 1904 repre
sented low-water mark for the dem
ocratic party. When the republicans
talk about exceeding It they must be
very optimistic Indeed.
Parker carried only 13 states, with
a total of 140 electoral votes. (Thera
is this difference in the conditions
between now and 1904 Oklahoma waa
not then a state. Also there has been
a congressional reaportionment. In
1910, and this changes slightly the
number of electoral votes ln each
state.) It is just possible for the re
publicans to' hold Cox down to these
same states that Parker carried. If
the republicans should be able to do
this, and in addition carry either Ken
tucky. Maryland or Tennessee, then
they will have exceeded the Roosevelt
victory over Parker oT.19M. R 1s
barely possible Tor the republicans to
do this, but I doubt It. -
Probable Harding States Given.
Now, approaching H from the other
nd, on the basis of states likely to be
carried by Harding, it follows from
what I have already said that the
states which Harding is fairly sure to
carry are: ;
Maine .......,
Vermont
New Hampshire.
.Massachusetts ..
New York ......
Pennsylvania . . .
Delaware
Michigan
Wisconsin ......
Illinois
Minnesota .....
BINorth Dakota..
4 South Dakota..
6
4 Iowa 13
18 Nebraska 8
45Kansas 10
3S Wyoming ........ 3
3 Idaho . . . 4
15 Washington 7
13'Oreson 5
2l,California 13
Total 360
If there is any error in this list, it
is likely to be in respect to New
Hampshire and Delaware.
The total electoral vote of these
states, which I credit as Harding
states, is 260. That is six lees than
enough to elect. I have set down in
this list only the states which Hard
ing is practically sure of carrying.
I shall make no attempt to make
predictions on the outcome in terms
of the popular vote. This aspect is so
complex that to enter into It at all
would result ln mere guesswork.
The addition of women to the elec
torate in many states is an uncertain
element.
Women Vote Uncertain Factor.
I have tried to find out the number
of women who have registered in the
various states, but It is not possible
to do so. In many of the larger cities
the number of women who have reg
istered is known, but in the rural
districts and smaller towns the re
sults have not been tabulated. Alore
over. In the rural parts of some states,
like Kentucky,-it -is not necessary to
register. Nothing definite can be said
in terms of the popular vote. This
element of the- added women voters
makes prediction this year excep
tionally difficult. All comparisons
with previous years are rendered ob
solete. :
It is not merely that the additional
women voters make the total uncer
tain. At best, estimates, of probable
majorities in each state Cannot be
made with enough certainty to justify
making them at all. Diligent investi
gation will make possible a certain
amount of accuracy in predicting how
a state1-will go., but a prediction as to
the amount of the-majority is a guesa
and nothing more.
For example, just preceding the
Maine election last September I had
letters from three of the four repub
lican congressmen in Maine, from one
of "the two- republican senators, and
from both the republican state chair
man and the republican national com
mitteeman. No one of. these believed
that the republican majority in Maine
would be over 30,000. lix-Governor
Cobb, who is considered the shrewdest
man in Maine on matters of this kind,
predicted 15,000. Mr. Parkhurst, who
was himself running for governor,
predicted the night before the election
thrf't he might have as much as 35.000
majority, but added - that he didn't
want to say so publicly for fear he
would be laughed at. As a matter of
font Vi MiiinA mninrltv tnrnpd out
to be not far from 70,000.
I cite this to prove that no amount
of investigation, and no amount of
knowledge of the facts will enable
any one to make a dependable predic
tion as to a majority in any state or
as to the country as a whole. It Is
possible to predict with fair accuracy
whereby a state will go republiran or
democratic; but beyond that it is not
possible to go.
Also, one more thing frankly in the
nature of avoidance. My Inquires
into many of these states have taken
place from a week to two weeks be-
c IV.. 1 i . . . T 1 1 1 - i i. rr i. n
weeks there has unquestionably been
a drift to Cox, possibly sufficient to
change the complexion of some states.
I have tried to estimate the effect of
this, but it is a most difficult thing
to manage over so large a territory.
IIARDIXG VOTE IS TWO TO ONE
University of Washington Straw
Ballot Strongly Republican.- ;
UNIVERSITY OF , WASHINGTON,
Seattle, Oct. 29. (Special.) Harding
won a sweeping victory in the straw
vote taken at the University of Wash
ington this week, with 1994 votes to
848 for Cox. Debs polled lf8 votes,
Christiansen 105 and Watkins 12. Tne
total vote included over three-fifths
of the entire university student body.
The voting was conducted by the Uni
versity Daily with the assistance of
other campus 'organizations.