THE MORNING OKEGONIAN, FRIDAY, JUIT 2, 1920
PALMER SLATED TO
TAKE FIRST BALLOT
McAdoo Second With Cox
Trailing, Is Forecast.
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ST
Oliioan's Supporters and Admin
istration Leaders Due to De
cide Final Roll Call.
BY MARK SULLIVAN.
Copyright by the New Tork Evening Post.
Inc., Published by Arrangement.
THE AUDITORIUM, San Francisco,
July 1. Within 24 hours, and prob
ably within 12 hours, of the balloting,
hero Is the way the situation stands.
Palmer should lead on the first bal
lot. He should have auout 2S0 votes.
Next to him will come McAdoo. It
is less easy to predict McAdoo's
strength on the first ballot accurate
ly, because strategy clearly calls on
the McAdoo managers to conceal
some of their strength at the begin
ning. However, McAdoo should have on
the first ballot as many as 230 votes.
Cox should have almost as many. All
the rest of the votes will be dis
tributed among the favorite sons and
minor candidates, with New. York
giving its bi-delegation to its gov
ernor; Indiana to Marshall: Oklahoma
to Owen, and so on. If these figures
become out of date between now and
the balloting it will be because of
growth of McAdop strength.
Palmer to Lose Knrly.
After the first Dallot, ir Palmer con
tinues to gain, that fact will not be
significant. Every competent ob
server here believes that Palmer will
reach his peak in one of the very
early ballots, and will thereafter de
cline. Thereupon the convention should
crystallize for a time into a tug-of-war
between two groups, which may
be loosely designated as the state
leader group and the administration
group. I emphasize the fact that
these terms are chosen largely for
convenience. Lines are so criss
crossed that the terms "state leader
group" and "administration group"
do not mean much except as conven
ient designations.
The state leader group will be for
Cox; but when you come to say whom
the administration group will be for
there arises the necessity for explana
tion and surmise, always emphasized
in these dispatches. It is true that In
the beginning McAdoo will seem to be
the candidate of the administration
group. It is also true that there is
a small army of office holders and
ex-office holders here working for
McAdoo.
Little Fellows Back McAdoo.
But the conspicuous fact, which is
extremely puzzling unless you explain
it on the basis of the theory which
will be stated later, is that this group
of office holders and ex-office hold
ers, working for McAdoo, does not
Include the really big administration
leaders, members of the cabinet and
the like, who in other respects are
carrying out the administration's will
here. McAdoo in a way,, and in the
beginning ballots, can be loosely de
ncribed as the candidate of' the ad
ministration group, in the sense that
a large number of minor officehold
ers are working for him. But only
in that sense.
The cabinet members and other
friends of Wilson, who have so far
completely and conspicuously domi
nated the convention and carried out
the presumed wishes of Wilson as
respects practically every detail, have
not been Identified with the McAdoo
candidacy. The attitude of these men
as regards this detail of the nominee
is so far unknown. They have given
no indication whatever of having a
candidate for the nomination.
This might readily be explained on
the ground of superior wisdom and
superior subtlety, but there are as
pects of it which make that explana
tion difficult to accept. Your corre
spondent's explanation is based on
the surmise which is wholly a sur
mise that these cabinet members and
other friends of Wilson are in an em
barrassing position. They think that
Wilson is going to be canonized by
the democratic party within a quarter
of a century.
YllHon Supporters I.oyal.
Inasmuch as they have this sort of
exalted attitude about Wilson as
party leader, they are 1 reluctant to
take nf their own initiative the defi
nite step which marks the passing of
that leader from power. They are re
luctant, in short, to take the initiative
in lining themselves up for any candi
date other than Wilson himself. They
fear it might seem disloyal to Wilson
They may know, and they rust know,
the impossibility of Wilson running
again; but they hesitate to be the
ones to act officially, so to speak, on
that assumption.
If these men were united on a can
didate as they are united on other
things, there would be no question of
the outcome. Up to now it is per
fectly apparent that they are not so
united.
lour correspondent's surmise is
that with the taking of the first bal
lot the embarrassment of this situa
tion about Wilson's personal position
will be solved. The result of the
first ballot will break the ice, the
result of that ballot will serve1 notice
on every individual concerned and to
all the. world that however much thi
convention honors Wilson as a party
leader, he Is not to be taken seriously
as a candidate for the nomination.
Administration Holdn Whip.
That fact, it seems to your corre
spondent, will relieve the embarrass
ment of these cabinet members and
friends of Wilson. They will then
feel free to take a hand in nominal
ing somebody else. If they take that
hand with the same firmness and the
same unity among themselves as has
characterized their previous control
of the convention they can probably
do what they please with regard to
the nomination as readily as they
have done what they pleased in re
gard to everything else.
Let us assume that they have this
unity and that they do take control.
If they do, whom will they back for
the nomination? Will they adopt
McAdoo, or will they adopt someone
else? Unquestionably they will
adopt McAdoo for the beginning, as
a means of holding their forces in
order. But your correspondent is less
confident that they will go at it with
the serious determination of putting
McAdoo finally over.
If it is not McAdoo that they de
termine to put over, then their choice
must lie among a small number of
others, like John W. Lavls, Homer
Cummings, or someone else similarly
agreeable to the administration. In
any event, assuming that they are
as united on this point as they have
been about the rest of the convention,
they will succeed with whomever
. they take up. But at this point arises
the question: Will they be united?
Will these cabinet members and
friends of Wilson, who have so far
demiuated things, stand together on
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BRQADWfY
the point of naming the candidate
for the presidency?
Obligations Prevent lolly.
The only reason for apprehending
that they may not is the fact that
several of them have developed either
personal ambitions for the presidency
or else are ne Deneficiaries of booms
organized by others. There is a
movement for Cummings, there is a
movement for Colby, there is a move
ment for Glass. Whether the pos
session of individual ambition may
prevent their unity of action in nam
ing a candidate for the presidency
can only be told by the event.
As to the state leader group which
is supporting Cox, they are likely to
continue that support for a consider
able time. The state leader group has
as its basis the Illinois delegation.
under the leadership of George Bren-
n, aided by the bulk of the New
York delegation and other large dele
gations from the middle western and
eastern states. The chief purpose of
this state leader group, however, is
expressed as being not merely the
nomination of Cox, but the prevention
of McAdoo's nomination.
The state leader group proclaims
that they have some 430 delegates
who will stand against McAdoo to
the end. Four hundred and thirty
delegates, of course, is more than a
third, and if it should stand together,
and also be intelligently led. it might
prevent the nomination of McAdoo. I
add the qualification that it must be
intelligently led. Indeed, it must be
led with extraordinary intelligence.
One Group May Decide.
Your correspondent has seen this
kind of situation on many occasions,
and it is one of the accepted axioms
of practical politics that it is ex
tremely difficult, as it is expressed,
to beat someone with no one." A
balance-of-power group like this can
readily be, and often is. the deciding
factor in a convention, but as a rule
it is the deciding factor only when
it has an affirmative candidate of its
own. When it is acting in a purely
negative way, it is much less formid
able.
Your correspondent hesitates to be
lieve that McAdoo's nomination, if it
is prevented at all. will be prevented
by this group. Of course, in a way
this group does have a candidate.
They are loosely identified with the
main body of the Cox supporters.
But the principle upon which they
have been brought together is not
to nominate Cox, but to defeat Mc
Adoo.
Now a to some minor factors.
First, Bryan: I cannot discover that
so far as regards the nominee. Bryan
has any specific group of delegates
who will follow his leadership.
Bryan's fight here has so far been
solely on tho dry versus wet plank
in the platform, and on that point
undoubtedly there are many dele
gates, indeed, probably a majority of
the delegates, who sympathize with
Mr. Bryan's position and feel grate
ful to him for the fight he is making.
Bryan's Standard Deserted.
But whether that sympathetic at
titude toward him will crystallize
into a willingness to act under his
leadership as regards the nomination.
remains to be seen. Of course, it
the nomination should become a case
of dry versus wet, uncomplicated by
other considerations, Bryan would
have power. Cox is the candidate
of the wets. There can be no doubt
about that, and if at any time it
should become a case of getting to
gether to beat Cox the drys would
be very happy to accept Bryan's
leadership.
Next, this matter of "ten men in a
room at 2 A. M." This has become a
derided phrase and a derided con
dition of -hypocrisy on the one hand
and cynicism on the other. Both point
to it with scorn. But any observer
of national conventions, if he
frank, knows that practically always
at some point toward the end it does
become a case of "ten men in a room
at 2 A. M."
The phrase as recently used has
come to have a sinister significance
that need not be so and is not always
so. The truth is that 1092 men can
not take any action and cannot be
brought into intelligent agreement ex
cept by means of agreement on the
part of the leaders of the various
groups
Caucus Wards Off Disaster
Without this meeting of minds on
the part of leaders, 1092 undirected
men would wobble around and get
nowhere for weeks, or else, in a burst
of some accidental emotion, would
come to some eccentric and perhaps
unfortunate result.
There will be "ten men in a room at
2 A. M." here as there was in Chi
cago. In fact, these meetings are al
ready beginning to take place.
In the heat of a battle leaders may
yell at each other publicly. To news
paper men they may picture their op
ponents as malevolent scoundrels, but
all of that is of the heat of battle.
Sooner or later certain specific facts
affecting their own fortunes become
perfectly clear to these leaders, and
sooner or later they come together
for conference. In point of fact, these
conferences are already beginning
tentatively.
Last of all, it remains true as it
always has been that everybody here
concedes that John W. Davis is in a
class apart. If ever the situation
arises where someone will say, "Let
us stop this snarling; let us cease
being for one man because he is my
friend; let us cease being against an
other man because he denied me pa
tronage; let us raise this "situation
to a higher elevation and, omitting
all personal relations, choose that
one democrat who could -most surely
Just One Reader
Perhaps one of the general misconceptions
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of large numbers.
As a matter of fact, in every single contact
with the public there exists for the time being,
only one advertiser, one publication and one
reader.
The point of any campaign must rest on inter- ,
esting that one reader.
At this moment there is just you and us and
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While this advertisement is being read, the
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In writing your message about your goods or
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