TIIE MORNING OREGONTAX. FRIDAY. NOVEMBER 1, 1912.
5
TREND
in
ii
I
iin
OF
TOWARD TAFT
Poll Shows Wilson Leads, bu
Indicates Possibilities of
Closing Days.
MORE STATES DOUBTFUL
Wilson's Estimated Strength In Elec
toral College Now Cut Down to
39 7 and Roosevelt Has -Dropped
From 78 to 20.
The trend of opinion towards Taft
r-ontlnues. as shown by the Chicago
Record-Herald's poll op to October 57.
Though Wilson still leads and Roose
velt holds second place. Taft is creep
ing up perceptibly and several states
which were placed In the Wilson and
Roosevelt columns a week previous are
now transferred to the doubtful col
umn. Wilson's estimated total electoral
rote Is cut down to S3 7.- Roosevelt's
from 78 to 10, and 103 votes are re
corded as doubtful. The trend towards
Taft is more marked in the dispatches
from each state published by the Record-Herald
than In the summing; up
with which it introduces its figures.
Wilsoa'a Early Start Admitted.
While admitting that Wilson has a
great lead, that paper says:
"The great question now Is whether
In nine days Taft or Roosevelt can
overcome their Democratic adversary's
lead, and whether Wilson's running
start will enable him to outstrip hi
rivals to the end."
Discussing the situation by states.
the Record-Herald says:
"Among the changes of the week, as
Indicated by the straw vote, some re
sult In profit to W llson, some to Roose
velt. Pennsylvania is placed In the
doubtful column. List week both the
methods employed In analyzing the re
turns Rave the state to Wilson. Thli
week Wilson Is favored by the face re
turns, but Roosevelt has the advantage
when the switches from party to part
are computed. Illinois also wanders to
the verge of the doubtful list. From
the first It has been given to Roose
velt by the straw vote tables. This
week Roosevelt wins on face returns,
while on the shlf?. from party to party
M'llpon Is given an Indicated plurality.
"Michigan likewise has been turned
into the doubtful column. Both Hit
nnls, and Michigan have strong Roose
velt tendencies, but they are debatable
statea at present, nine days before the
polls open.
"Oregon, which was classed as a
Roosevelt state, has in the last seven
days developed a decided Wilson tend
ency. Both the straw ballots and re
ports from political correspondents In
dlcate that were the election tomorrow
Wilson would win Oregon.
Idaho la Danbtfal List.
"Idaho, which waa listed as a Roose
velt state up to the time the courts de
cided that Roosevelt electors could not
get on the ticket. Is doubtful, hanging
in the balance between Wilson and
Taff.
"Montana, which was doubtful, has
given signs of yielding a Wilson plur
ality; Delaware, which is still doubt
ful, sees Wilson In the lead at present:
North "Dakota, classed as a Roosevelt
state, is apparently debatable territory
Roosevelt. Wilson or Taft. any of the
three is not without prospects of win
ning the state.
"New England apparently has under,
gone no change. Wilson retaining his
lead: New York and the other large
Eastern commonwealths apparently
stand as they did seven days ago, with
Wilson the favorite, Pennsylvania alone
wandering Into the doubtful list.
"In California Roosevelt appears to
have Increased his strength: in Wiscon
sin Wilson seems to have been
strengthened somewhat.
I "In Iowa, Taft has picked up more
than 4 per cent on the face of the straw
ballots; Roosevelt has lost about 2 per
cent, while Wilson has remained In his
old place.
"Taft has gained on the face of the
straw ballots In Minnesota, and so has
Roosevelt, while Wilson has lost
ground, but retains the lead."
Statea change Place.
A comparison of the accompanying
table with that published last Monday,
shows that Delaware and Pennsylvania
have been transferred from Wilson to
the doubtful column and Montana from
doubtful to Wilson; Idaho. Illinois,
Michigan and North Dakota from
Roosevelt to doubtful; Oregon from
Roosevelt to Wilson.
The figures are analyzed in two
ways by the, ace ,of, the returns and
by the percentage of switches of votes
from one pa'ty to another since 1908.
For 15 states the figures follow:
from Bryan to Roosevelt are 21J and
from Bryan to Taft 142 in a total poll
of 6018 votes, but are more than offset
by a switch of 884 of Taft's vote of
four years ago to Wilson. In Iowa
Roosevelt gains 226, Taft 59. Debs 61
Bryan votes-in a total of 7140. Wis
consin shows the La Follette influence
against Roosevelt in a switch of 1055
Taft votes to Wilson against only 664
to Roosevelt, while the Colonel gains
only 189 Bryan votes and is in third
place. In Minnesota the switch from
Taft to Wilson Is 1169 In a total poll
of 8042. enough to put Taft In second
place above Wilson, but still behind
Roosevelt.
In short, a radical change In the re
sult of the election would be brought
about If the Republicans who announce
their purpose to vote for Wilson were
to return to their party allegiance and
the Democrats who have Joined the
Roosevelt Progressive party were to
adhere to their new affiliation. In
some states this might give Taft a
plurality. In others, while leaving, Wil
son in the lead. It would put Taft
ahead of Roosevelt.
DEBATE SUBJECTS NAMED
High Schools In Various Sections of
State) to Meet.
VILSQN OVATION
LASTS FOR HOUR
Great Audience in Garden in
New York Acclaims Dem
ocratic Nominee.
PLEA IS MADE TO VOTERS
Candidate Says pis Success I4es in
Solid Democratic Congress . and
Democratic State Organiza
tions AH Over Land.
NEW YORK. Oct SI. Woodrow Wil-
SAL.EM. Or., Oct. 31. (Special.)
amonir th. various hia-h achools have I son. speaking tonight before an audi-
been named fcr-the various districts ence that rilled every corner oi m-
n a pamphlet which has been prepared son Square Garden, receivea ine great-
EE SULT 0F ELECTION AS INDICATED BY STRAW VOTE
The present relative strength of the candidates in the electoral col
lege as Indicated by the canvass of the Chicago Record-Herald is as
follows, the table being In no sense a forecast, but a summary of lndi- -cations
nine days before November 5:
i
Wilson. a
Alabama 12
Arizona 1
Arkansas 9
Colorado (
Connecticut 7
Florida 6
Georgia 14
Indiana IS
Iowa IS
Kansas 10
Kentucky IS
Louisiana 10
Maryland 8
Maine 6
Massachusetts ... 18
Minnesota 12
Mississippi 10
Wllaea.
Montana 4
Nebraska 8
Nevada 3
New Jersey 14
New Mexico S
New York 4S
North Carolina... IT
Ohio 24
Oklahoma 10
Oregon 5
South Carolina... 9
South Dakota..... 5
Tennessee 12
Texas 20
Virginia 12
West Virginia.... 8
Wisconsin 13
Roosevelt.
California 13
Washington 7
Total 20
Taft.
Utah 4
Vermont 4
Wyoming 3
Total 11
Doubtful.
Delaware S
Idaho 4
Illinois 29
Michigan 15
North Dakota.... 5
Pennsylvania .... 38
New Hampshire.. 4
Rhode Island 5
Total 103
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Total 397
For Wilson Thirty-five states, total electoral vote 897
For Roosevelt Two states, total electoral vote 20
For Taft Three states, total electoral vote 11
Doubtful Eight states, total electoral vote 103
Total electoral college..
Necessary to elect
.681
.2S6
by the State Library Commission. In
the Eastern Oregon district debates on
the question whether an' Income tax
should be levied in Oregon will be held
at Moro. PrlnevlUe and Weston. In
the Columbia River district debates will
be held at Astoria, The Dalles, Esta-
cada. Forest Grove. McMlnnville. Park
Place. St. Helena. St. Johns. Tillamook,
and Woodburn on the Question or
whether the President of the united
States should be elected by a direct
vote of the people.
In the Central Oregon district aeoates
will be held at Albany. Corvallla. Eu
gene. Cottage Grove. Kalis city, junc,
tion City. Lebanon. Salem and Spring,
field on the question of establishment
of a state Insurance law for compen
sation of employes engaged in hazard
ous occupations. In the Southern Ore
gon district there will be debates at
Ashland and Klamath Falls on the ques
tion of capital punishment. In the coos
Ray district there will be debates at
Bandon. Coquille, Myrtle Point, North
Ronri anil Marahfleld on the question of
an educational test in connection with
mmtgration.
The aublect for Inter-district ana
final contests will be on the mainten
ance of a large Navy.
TALE IS TOLD BY BULLET
Strike Victim Is Slain by Forelgn
Manufactnred Missile.
SALEM. Mass.. Oct. 31. That the
bullet which ended the life of Anna
Lopiszo was of foreign make and
could not have been fired from a re
volver of American manufacture; that
Joseph Caruso confessed to a detective.
whom he thought a menu, inai n
itahhiui a nnliceman In the same riot
and that officials of the Industrial
Workers of the World advised violence
and disregard of law in industrial dis
nut were features in tne Closing ieo
ttmnnv offered by the commonwealth
todav In the trial of Ettor, Giovannltti
and Caruso for the Loplzzo murder.
District Attorney AttwiU declared he
had no more witnesses and court ad
Inurned for the day. while the prosecu
tor was reading the Jury a pamphlet
alleged to have been written by Vln-
est ovation of bis campaign for the
Presidency.
Entering the hall at 9 o'clock, after) tlnued the speaker, "but I want to say
have a greater and greater feeling of
satisfaction because I know that the
American people are about to make on
of the most vital choices of their lives
From one ocean to the other, men are
becoming aware that in less than
week the common people of America
will come into their own.
New Party Held to Be Republican,
"I know from the reports coming
from all parts of the country that the
new party lias not come from the Dem
ocrats. Therefore it must be made u
of those Republicans who are dissatls
fied with the regular organization an
its avowed purposes and programmes.
All men have to do is to realize that
all common enterprises of life are th
enterprises of politics; that a man Is
not voting an abstract political creed,
but is voting a programme of justice
and of right when he votes at th
polls. Now, If you want that pro
gramme, what are you going to do next
Tuesday?
"Vote for Wilson," Interrupted
voice, and there was great applause.
I appreciate the compliment," con
speaking before an enthusiastic audi
ence In the Bronx, the Democratic can
didate stood for an hour and three min
utes at the railing of the speaker's
platform, waiting for the demonstration
to end.
No man could fall to be moved by a
demonstration such as we have wit
nessed tonight," he said with every evi.
dence of deep feeling, as he finally
made himself heard; "yet I am the more
thrilled because I realize It is a demon
stration for a cause and not for a man.'
Oalkant Refuse ta Be Quelled.
Starting with the first shouts from
the doorway when Governor Wilson ar
rived by automobile from the Bronx
meeting, the .Madison Square Garden
outburst defied his utmost efforts to
quell it. The Governor's motion for
quiet brought only renewed cheers.
Chants of "We want Wilson," shook the
hall, and twice when the cheering had
slightly subsided, it was revived with
renewed vigor by young women who
forced their way to the front of the
speaker's stand and inspired the crowd
to fresh efforts.
Governor Wilson spoke extemporane- pitiful to the man who promises the
onsiy. He had spoken but a few mln- American reoDle what he Is not ready
utes and was declaring that the Roose- to Derform. The case is mada un: the
veil jrogressive party, wnerever it case is before the Jury,
couia capture ine regular Republican. Governor Wilson will leave. New
was regular and wherever it could not. York at 8:30 o'clock tomorrow" for
was irregular, when a man directly Rochester, where he is to adBressIa
this: The one thing that will set re
form forward in this country is
unlted"Government, and a united Gov
eminent does not consist of a Presi
dent. A united Government consists
of a House of Representatives, of
President and of something that in my
time the people have not yet captured
. Senate.
Plea Made for State Tickets.
And It consists of something more.
If you have a Democratic Government
ait Washington and do not have a Dem
ocratlc government In the states, you
have no conducting medium by which
to signal to Washington.
Tou have got to have a vital organ
ization of purpose spreading through
out the United States in order that
great bodies of men may unite together
for the great project of emancipation.
and the only possible chance of having
a great united organization after the
4th of March next Is to vote the Demo.
cratlo ticket.
'After next Tuesday we shall know
not what men are going to proclaim,
not what men are going to profess, but
what men are going to do. God be
Illinois ..
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
rercentase of Switch
Indicated
pluralltte
...Wilson S.S83
. ..Wilson 10J.7SO
. ..Wilson 10:.:l
...Wilson 15.J3J
.Wilson 10.933
houlh Dakota Wilson 45. 6 3D
Washington .Roossvelt. . 2.143
Oregon Wilson 5.093
Monia ia Wilson..... 13.3:t0
Nw York Wilson 105.551
Pennsylvania .......... Roosevelt. 10.520
Connecticut Wilson..... 24.(49
New Jersey Wilson 82.932
Maryland . WUion Si. 791
Delaware Wilson . 1M7
Second.
Roosevelt
Taft
Roosevelt
Koosevelt
Roosevslt
Roosevelt
Wilson
Roosevelt
Roossveit
Roosevelt
Wilson
Taft
Taft
Roosevelt
Taft
By Facs of Returns
Indicated
pluralities. Second.
Roosevelt. .119.643 Wilson
Wilson 9S.182 Taft
Wilson 77.675 Roosevelt
Roosevelt.. 24.834 Wilson
Wilson S2.772 nouserelt
Wilson 34.914 Roosev.t
Roosevelt.. 23.13S Wilson
Wilson 3.191 Roosevelt
Wilson S.48 Roosevelt
Wilson 169. 922 Roosevelt
Wilson..... 17.199 Roosevelt
Wilson 9.S09 Roosevelt
Wilson 10,431 Roosevelt
Wilson &2.SB4 Roosevelt
Wilson..... 14.960 Roosevelt
According to this table Wilson sup
plants Roosevelt as leading candidate
in Illinois. Iowa. Michigan. South Da
kota and Oregon; Roosevelt supplants
Wilson as leader In Pennsylvania; Taft
supplants Roosevelt in second place in
Connecticut. Delaware and New Jersey.
The Record-Herald's dispatch regard
ing Oregon says:
Wilson Is an Indicated winner In Oregon
by any method of computation based on
test ballots collected th last week or so.
On the face of the returns the New Jersey
ito has an Indicated plurality of 8191 and
on percentage of change. 1.1.092.
Roosevelt carried the state In the pri
maries, but apparently has been losing
ground during the present campaign. Some
claim the ex-Presktent's alleged acceptance
of - trust campaign funds four years ago
has hurt him: otners say mat wnson Him
self has made the Inroads and has been
compared with the Colonel to the detri
ment of the latter.
President Taft. too, has gained strength
and what he has acquired has coma from
the Progressives.
Taft's Opportwalty Skewsu
A atudy of the way votes switch
from one party as cast In 1908 to an
other party as they will be cast this
year is instructive and shows what a
great opportunity Taft has to change
the indicated result by winning back
votes which, according to present In
tention, would go to Wilson. Iowa
Fhows that Taft has lost 748 to Wilson.
1227 to Roosevelt and 84 to Debs. If
these 78 should return to Taft, he
would have 232S and Wilson only 2858.
while Roosevelt would be relegated to
third place.
The figures show also that Wilson Is
not likely to hold his party strength,
losing considerably to Roosevelt and
In a lesser, though material, degree to
Taft, but more than compensating for
this loss by his gains from Taft's 1908
vote. Thus In Michigan the switches ,
cent St. John, of Chicago, general sec
retary of the Industrial Workers of
the World. This pamphlet, which was
found at the Lawrence strike head
quarters, was admitted in evidence by
Judge Qulnn, despite objection by the
defense.
It outlined the history of the Indus
trial Workers of the World and their
alms and methods. Its presentation to
the Jury will be completed tomorrow.
when the commonwealth will close.
In the pamphlet, the commonwealth
maintains, is advice to workers to dis
regard the law. In the preamble to
the constitution of the organization
read to the Jury it was set forth that
"the basic principle makes the Indus
trial Workers of the World a fighting
organization. .
- It was. also declared that the only
bargain the organisation would make
with the "employers' class" waa "com
plete surrender of organized industry
to the workers.
Captain W. H. Proctor, of the Mas
sachusetts district police, and two ex
perts on cartridges and revolvers gave
testimony that the bullet found in
Loplzzo s body was of foreign manu
facture and Captain Proctor said the
only type of revolver he was able to
discover which fired the kind of bul
let was a No. 9 Italian revolver.
Louis Laeourt, an Italian detective,
testified that he worked himself Into
the good graces of Caruso after the
Loplzzo killing and declared the de
fendant had told him ha had "stuck
a knife into a big fat policeman" in
the riot of January 29. This was the
day that Policeman Benolt was stabbed
an3 miss Loplzzo shot.
Kohler & Chase Pianos of oualitv
375 Washington street at West Park.
beneath the speaker's stand shouted
"Governor, talk about the Baltimore
platform.'
Iaterrnn-ter Ia Ejected.
night meeting.
Governor Wilson in the Bronx, tooK-
occasion to reply to tne tayiAn juri
ponents'that the prosperity lot -th
Cries of "put him out" came from all oun'ry be afiected-bjr tiltf lec
parts of the hall and three policemen
grabbed the disturber and rushed him
to a doorway. Governor Wilson leaned
over the rail and called to the police:
"Don't put anybody out." but the man
was ejected.
"It is inconvenient to have more than
one man speak at a time, but this is a
free country," added Governor Wilson,
amid cheers from the crowd.
Mrs. Wilson and her three daughters,
in a box near the speaker's platform,
were apparently greatly moved by the
demonstration for the Governor and ex
changed smiles with him as he tried
to obtain order.
"Government is an enterprise of man
kind, not of parties," said Governor
Wilson. As election day approaches. I
tion. He pointed to the bettlngyjdds
in Wall street, so largely in favor of
Democratic success.
- Betting Given as Answer.
This was what he called his "answer
In & nutshell," showing, he declared,
that there was not the slightest pros
pect of any check in the country's
prosperity. . The only way the prosper
ity of the country could be injured, he
said, was by the deliberate efforts of
Wall street.
"The gentlemen in Wall street don't
bet 5 to 1 on their own destruction
and they don't go to their business
smiling and complacent when they ex
pect a deluge next week," was his way
of putting it.
When Governor Wilson reached
Nible's Hall In the Bronx, 'where he
made his first speech of the evening,
a big crowd had gathered. A demon
stration lasting 10 minutes was given
him. '
"What I am fighting for personally
he said, "Is that the average man be
not kept down and denied opportunity
What I object to in the prosperity of
the country is that too small a num
ber of persons originate ajid manage
the prosperity and that the rest of us
merely get what is left over after they
are satisfied.
Averasre Man Pat First.
"If the Government of the United
States is not suited to the fortune and
hopes of the average man, then it
ought not to be maintained to the
benefit of the minority.
"But suppose, for example, that I
should be elected President of the
United States; it is a reasonable hy
pothesis " -
A great shout Interrupted the Gov
ernor and the demonstration of cheers
lasted several minutes.
"Suppose I should be elected on the
5th of November and everybody would
say on the 6th of November, 'Well, he
has got the Job and it is up to him.'
Now what do you suppose would hap
pen. Nothing. You've got to stay on
the Job and back me up, or there is
nothing in it. There Is no use putting
men in office unless you are going to
help them do your thinking; unless you
are going to help them know your
needs. No man can think the thoughts
of a nation. The leader must' know
and think. What is there in leadership
if there is no one to follow?
Governor Wilson received a big re
ception in the Bronx. Several times
during his speech there were prolonged
demonstrations of approval.
Mbrriaee Licenses.
FOOTT-WE:5T W. W. Scott, cltv. 42. and
Louise West. 38.
A RNOLD-JOHANNESEN Arthur F. Ar
nold, Hoqulam, Wash., - 26, and Clara Jo-
hannescn, 21.
WALTER-WATROUS Carson J. Walter.
city, .10, and Eunace Watrous, 23.
ARMSTHONvJ-M' KNIGHT Millsrd Arm
strong-, city, legal, and Martha W. McKnight,
legal.
HANSEN -WAHL Nel. p. Hansen, cltr.
legal, and Lena Wahl. legal.
BACON-BEAN Ralph Bacon. Grants
Pass. Or., 32. and Virginia c. Bean, SI.
ANDBBSON-HTDE Albert L. Anderson.
city, legal, ard Abble L. Hyde, legal.
GREENE GREt N Krnost S. Greece, city.
legal, and Grace E. Green, legal.
cl NMKtiHAM-ruKK R (.-naries II. Cun
ningham, cltv. 26, and Flora E. Furlck, 26.
WASSER-SHANK Morris Wasser, city,
22. and Rose Shank, 18.
KKIiLER-BOWEN P. F. Keller. City. 22.
nd JJessis Bowcn, 19.
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