THE MORNING OBEGOKIAff, SATTJBP-AY, "NOVEMBER 5, 190 t Entered at the Postofflc at Portland, Or., as second-class matter. REVISED SUBSCRIPTION RATES. Br mall (postage prepaid In advance) Daily, -with Sunday, per month ? --85 Dally, with Sunday excepted, per year 7.60 Dally, -with Sunday. Ter year 8.00 Sunday, per year ,4.......... 2-00 The "Weekly, per year ...... 1.50 The Weekly. 3 months ,- -50 Dally, per -creek, delivered, Sunday ex cepted ... lo Dally, per -week; delivered. Sunday in cluded 20c POSTAGE RATES. United States. Canada and Mexico 30 to 14-page paper . .....i... lc 16 to SO-paee paper ...2c E2 to 4 4 -page paper .............3o Foreign rates, double. EASTERN BUSINESS OFFICE. . (The S. C. Beclcwith Special Agency) New York; rooms 43-50. Tribune building. Chicago: Rooms 510-512 Tribune building. The Oregonian does not buy poems or stories from Individuals and cannot under take to return Any manuscript sent to It without solicitation. No stamps should be Inclosed lor this 'purpose. KEPT ON SATVK. Chicago Auditorium Annex; PostofSce News Co., 173 Dearborn street. Decrer Julius Black. Hamilton & Kend rick, 908-912 Seventeenth street, and Fine BUS Bros., 605 16th St. Kansas City. Mo. Rlcksecker Cigar Co (Ninth and "Walnut. Xoa Angeles B. F. Gardner, 259 South , Bprlng, and Harry Drapkln. Oakland, Cal. "W. H. Johnston, 14th and Franklin st. Minneapolis 1L J. Kavanaugh, 50 South ffhlrd; L. Regelsburger. 217 First Avenue Bouth. New Xork City I. Jones & Co., Astor House. QgSextV. R. Godard and Myers & Harrop. Omaha Barkalow Sro 1612 .Farnham; Mageath Stationery 'Co., 130S Para am. Salt Lake Salt Lake News Co.. 77 West Second South street. . St. Louis World's Fair News Co., Joseph Copeland. Geo. L. Ackerman, newsboy. Eighth and Olive st&. and Excelsior News Company. San Francisco J. K. Cooper Co., 740 Mar ket, near Palace Hotel; Foster & Orear. Ferry News Stand; Goldsmith Bros., 236 fiuter; L. E. Lee, Palace Hotel News Stand; - F. W. Pitts. 1008 Market; Frank Scott, 80 .Ellis; N. Wheatley. 83 Stevenson; Hotel St. Francis News Stand. ( Washington, D. C. Ebbltt House News 4 Etand. , e - , FOKTLAND, SATURDAY, NOV. 5, 1004. $ THE OUTLOOK TODAY. The reasons -why there is so much confidence in the election of Mr. Roose Y velt may be worth brief restatement inasmuch as the election is now just jp at hand. In spite of Republican claims to the y contrary. The Oregonian thinks New f Yortf a doubtful state. The chances may be about even for a Republican "up-state" majority equal to or some . what exceeding the opposing majority in the city. This Is the real judgment all round. If the result depended on the State of New York the wagers would toe about even, instead of four or Ave to one on Roosevelt, as they are. For the Eastern calculation is that Roosevelt is sure to receive a clear an strong majority over and above any possible combination of states for Par ker, plus New York. The canvassers express certainty that In no event even with New York against him can he have less than about 50 majority. The list of states has "been run over so much that It Is not necessary now to review It. But though New, York is not neces sary to Roosevelt, it is the chief center of interest, partly because it Is abso lutely necessary to Parker, partly be cause the magnitude of its vote appeals to the imagination, and partly because the faction now in control of theDemo cratic party are concentrating all effort on New York, both because they know that without that state Parker can have no chance whatever,-and because also they are extremely anxious to ob tain the best result possible for use hereafter, in keeping the management orcontrol of the party from falling back into The hands of Bryan, who has open ly announced his purpose to begin an effort to recapture it, immediately after this present election. Claim Is made by the Democratic managers of 150,000 plurality for Parker In Greater New York. This is erfor mously In excess of any majority ever gained, and Republicans will allow no more than 125,000 as the highest possi bility; and even this exceeds by many thousands the lead of Cleveland over Harrison in 1892 the1 year of phenom enal slump to the Democratic party. The Republican estimate of the "up state" plurality for Roosevelt puts 150, 000 as a minimum, which Is much below that for McKInley In 1900. Other esti mates carry the figures up to 175,000, which certainly Is too high. The Chi cagoTribune's correspondent telegraphs that "the estimate of 150,000 for Roose velt up the state is a minimum, while the estimate of 150,000 for -Parker In Greater New York isa maximum. On this account most political forecasters trive the state to Roosevelt by a com paratively narrow margin." But the New York Herald repeats Its remark that the state is extremely close and doubtful, with probability of no jnore than 4000 or 5000 either way. The Oregonian, after study of all sources of opinion, deems this a very probable judgment. New York seems as likely to vote for Parker as for Roosevelt, but it is not now perceived how Roosevelt can be beaten or Parker elected. HARNEY'S IRRIGATION PROJECT. Senator Fulton is right In saying that little water will make "semi-arid lands In Oregon yield abundantly. There is godd reason to believe he is near the truth when he says that Mr. Newell, chief of the reclamation service, has un derestimated the irrigating power of Sllvies River, in Harney County. Mr. Newell doubtless knows accurately the flow of the stream; but the people of Harney County think they are better acquainted with the potentialities of the soil. They Insist that the water of Silvies River, which now drains Into Malheur Lake, will reclaim more land than he has convinced himself it would. The early estimate of Government reclamation engineers was that Silvies River would render productive. 800,000 acres of land. But Mr. Newell has ac quired later information, which has caused him to reduce that estimate to one-third. Naturally, Harney County residents are disappointed. It may be that they have an expanded Idea of the possibilities of the project, but they probably do not exaggerate as the Reclamation Bureau depreciates. In spite of the expert knowledge of the Government engineers, the verdict here tn Oregon will lean to the side of those who are tilling the soli In Harney County and by practical experience know what it will da In the Pacific Northwest, Immense areas, once deemed worthless, are pro fiucing great harvests, to the wonder of Eastern Scientists and to the explosion of their theories and to the profit of the agriculturists. "Where once were dry, barren wastes now grows the cer eal that feeds Europe and Asia.. This is not said to- cast discredit on Mr. Newell or his able engineers, but to suggest that the Harney project has more merit than credited to It by the Reclamation Bureau. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY MISSED. "We are assured by the hysterical Spo kane Spckesman-Revlew that Judge Turner, who Is temporarily affiliating with the Democratic party In the hope of .securing an office, has always been a railroad commission man. The Review and a number of its Democratic allies In various parts of Washington state that Turner's record on the commission matter has always been thoroughly consistent and that he has always en deavored to secure the passage of the much-desired bllL Accepting this for what It Is worth, it would be interest ing to know why Turner did not pass a commission bill in 1896, when he had full control of the .Legislature. There was no questioning his power at that particular session of the Legislature, for men who strode up and. down the lobby of the Olympia Hotel declaring that they would never vote for Turner and would not sell their birthright for a mess of pottage eventually found the .way to the Turner headquarters and emerged thoroughly Inoculated with tha De Rol germ. Having t such power over men, and with the Interests of the dear people so much at heart, Is it not strange tha$ this idol of the masses did not take advantage of the opportunity and put through any legislation which he or his friends desired? "Why did he not say to the multitude who were clamoring for him to accept the United States Senatorshlp, "No, friends, I decline to accept the bauble until you carry out my wish of a lifetime and pass a rail road commission bill?" The Review asks us to believe that Turner has been a commission man since the days of the territorial convention. But there was an opportunity where he had the Legis lature In full control but made no move toward releasing the wheat kings of Eastern Washington from the bondage In which the railroads are supposed to be holding them. The perfect control Turner had over the Populist Legislature precluded all possibility of a failure to pass almost any kind of legislation which he want ed. As an illustration of the practically unlimited power that was in his hands, Judge Wlnsor, of Seattle, in a review ol Turner's career at Olympia, spoke In Seattle last Friday Tegardlng the squelching of the Senatorial bribery In vestigation as follows: While 'witnesses were being brought from Tacoma Turner appeared, and early In the morning, when Jthe committee made a partial report, one of Turner's friends arose" and moved that thq commltee bo discharged. That motion was carried by the majority, which that man controlled and which he used as Instruments to bring about his elec tion. But Judge Turner failed to say the word that would give the people the much - desired railroad commission. Clothed with a power that brought to him Democrats, Populists and even Re publican votes, In sufficient numbers to elect him United States Senator, and also to squelch an Investigation as to how "it happened, he deliberately passed up the one great opportunity for secur ing a commission bill made by his own Legislature. It is in searching for a reason for his failure that some of the Eastern Washington voters are filled with a haunting fear that perhaps after all there has been a break in the much vaunted Turner consistency on the rail road commission matter. STANDARD OIL IN POLITICS. The official denial of the Standard Oil Company that it has taken any part in the nomination or election of any can didates to office has failed to quiet the public mind on that subject. As a mat ter of fact, it has made the public more suspicious than ever, and it will re quire all of the great contribution that has been made in aid of Parker to offset the loss that will be suffered in other directions. Before -the Maryland Bank ers' Association a few days ago Mr. J. M. Nelson, of Baltimore, delivered an address on "Financial and Commercial and Monopolistic Combinations." This address was of particular Interest at this time, as it Included a statement showing the enormous proportions of the Standard Oil group of banks in New York City. This group Includes the National City, National Bank of Commerce, Hanover National,, First National and Chase National, with a combined capital of $64,000,000. or 60 per cent -of the entire capitalization of the forty-two National banks in New York City. The deposits In the five Standard Oil banks reach the enormous total of $623, 000,000, and loans and discounts are $430,000,000, the deposits being 7 per cent greater and the loans and discounts 3 per cent greater than those of the other thirty-seven New York National banks. The well - authenticated reports of Standard Oil participation In National politics, together with the merciless grilling which Thomas Lawson has ad ministered to the Standard Oil crowd, undoubtedly provoked the recently printed denial of what they termed "many false and misleading statements from various sources." That denial specifically stated that .neither the Standard Oil nor any of its constituent companies had been at any time con nected with "copper, steel, -banks, rail roads and gas (except natural gas)." The apparent assumption on which the denial was made was that a cor poration was a power separate and apart from the men who directed its operations. If this view of the oil oc topus was generally accepted, the re cent spirited denial from the house of Rockefeller might be 'received with a better grace. As the distinction be tween the corporation and the men who manipulate it is not so pronounced as to attract general attention, the public alarm over the Increasing strength and power of this great trust will not be .alleviated by any number of denials of responsibility for the baneful Influence which Standard Oil is exercising' In this Presidential campaign. Toe five banks before mentioned are owned or controlled by the same men who own and control Standard' Oil, and their power In the Industrial world Is enormous and far-reaching. Wielding such immense power as is conferred on them by the control of 57 per cent of the deposits and 53 per cent of the loans and discounts of the metropolis of the New World, the Standard Oil banks do not have to come out In the open In & political fight. In fact, it would be unsaTe for them to do so, and their most effective work Is done under cover, but when, the individual mem bers of the "Standard Oil crowd" are known to be working for the election of Parker, we are afforded the strongest possible circumstantial evidence that what the world knows as "Standard Oil," the "Standard Oil combination," or any other term which' may be applied to the system, is- taking part In the Presidential election. " Despite all the power that will be put forth by this king of all trusts, there Is hardly a possibility that It can -defeat Roosevelt. Working under cover is less rapid than in the ope"n, and if the great i mass of people who hold the balance of power in this country once become awakened to the fact that Standard Oil Is opposing any candidate, the election of that fortunate candidate is assured. The Standard Oil opposition to Roose velt, If It becomes generally known, will be a powerful factor in assuring his election. THE TARIFF ON WHEAT. Extraordinary conditions in the grain trade, due to a very short crop in this country and enormous crops in the Ar gentine, India and Russia, have demon strated beyond argument that the tariff on wheat has this year added nearly 25 cents per bushel to the price of the cereal. This has enabled the farmers of Oregon, Washington and Idaho to sell one o the largest crops on record at the highest average price they have ever received. Nine-tenths of the wheat from this territory has been sold to Eastern buyers. That the tariff alone made this business possible Is shown by the quotations In Chicago, New York and Liverpool, and corrob orated by the following letter from the Dunlop Flouring MUla, of Richmond, Va., to the New Ycrk Journal of Com merce under date of October 24: It may bo of Interest to your readers to know that It Is Quite probable that we may be In a position to grind Russian and Black Sea wheat. We wero offered on Saturday a superb quality of wheat at SL05 per bushel cU .Newport News. This, with duty paid, would cost us $1.30, as against SL20 to $1.30 asked by domestic shippers of No. 2 red Winter wheat, -which has a milling value of at least 5c per bushel under that of the for eign wheat The .foreign wheat is really beautiful, tests 63 pounds to the bushel, is clear and plump and of rich color. The chances are that this year the Imports of foreign wheat will be as great, if not greater, than our entire export of wheat and flour. On October 16 the Chicago Inter Ocean announced, the sale by a Chicago firm of 1,000,000 bushels of Oregon wheat to a Loulsvllfe (Ky.) milling concern at $1.25 per bushel. No argument Is neces sary to prove that the Oregon wheat would not have sold for so high a figure had the Canadians and Russians been permitted to enter their wheat free of duty. The Oregonian has never been favorable to the policy of a duty on wheat, but it was Imposed for the pro tection of our Eastern American farmer. This year 'a the first time that conditions have arisen that have made it operative to the advantage of the grower. Down in the sunny South, where wheatgrowing is not an important in dustry, the Democrats have sought to make an issue of the tariff on wheat, if was in answer to a Texas paper's argument against the duty that The Oregonian cited the fact that this was the first year since the enactment of, the DIngley law that an opportunity had been afforded to give the farmers the benefits for which It was framed. It may "be many years before unusual conditions will again make it operative to the advantage of the farmer, but this year there can be no question as to thq financial assistance It has given hitn.N Eut for the duty, which has kept out foreign wheat, there would have been no movement of Pacific Northwest wheat to the East by rail. THE WOMAN'S EXCHANGE. The Idea of helping industrious, wom anly women who must work for a liv ing to turn their talents for needlework and- housewifely accomplishments to account, by work that they can perform In their own homes and in conjunc tion with domestic duties, has been worked out through the organization known as the Woman's Exchange in many cities. Attempts have been made from time to time to establish a Woman's Exchange In this city, but for various reasons they have failed, or partially so, after having met the mod erate expectations of workers and or ganizers for a time. This effort was re vived some months ago by the board of control of the -Woman's Union, and so carefully have the details of the work been handled, and so patiently have the attendant discouragements been over borne by cheerful helpfulness that the work seems now to be established upon a sound basis. The value of an organization of this kind has been often demonstrated. The Woman's Exchange, as its name implies, opens a market for the prod ucts of the industry of women who must make their own way and in so doing prefer or are compelled by cir cumstances to work In their own homes. It is not in any sense a money-making enterprise, as far as profit to the pro moters Is concerned. It is desirable and Indeed necessary for it to be self-supporting. To this end the efforts of the managers are bent. The exchange does Lnot indorse the bargain-counter idea of extreme cheapness In the food It serves or the wares it undertakes for a small consideration to sell. It proposes rather to offer to its patrons food that Is pal atable, wholesome and daintily served, and charge what such food and service are reasonably worth, while upon the principle that whatever Is worth doing at all Is worth doing well It excludes from Its sale offerings Ill-made 'articles of clothing and cheap work wrought from flimsy materials. In brief, the purpose Is to establish and maintain a standard of excellence in a line of endeavor which offers a wide field of usefulness, to the end that the Woman's Exchange may come to stand for an honest, earnest, philan thropic effort on the part of women whose lines have fallen In sheltered .places to help women, equally honest and earnest, who must be self-supporting, to help themselves. The effort has been and Is successful in other cities; there is no reason why It may not succeed in Portland, and it ' may be added it has under present aus pices every prospect of reasonable suc cess. THE WdNDEB OF IT. The British Iron and Steel Institute, numbering 350 members, will spend the first ten days of November on a tour of the Iron and steel plants of the States' of New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio.' fit Is fourteen years since this body vis ited the United States, it having come in 1890, as it came in 1904, at the. invita tion of Mr. Carnegie, who Is its presi dent. "Much that was new "and sur prising to the members of the institute awaited them in .1890," says the Outlook; "Much more awaits them this year." In fourteen years what has not been done In the name of industrial progress, in. the development of manufacturing skill, in construction in Iron and steel In the United States? To begin with, this country has forged ahead until It now stands at the top of the column of Iron and steel producing countries. A Navy full armored 'and equipped has sprung into existence; the three shipyards on the Coast or on the Gerat Lakes at which iron ships were built have been multiplied by ten, and the United States Navy fourth among the navies of the world has been bunt In these yards and armored and equipped with ord nance from the great steel plants that the Institute will visit within, the next week. Looking back oyer this brief space of years, we wonder what we see; looking forward. Imagination soon reaches Its limit' and dies away In wonder. It Is easy and Indeed natural and just to sympathize with Enoch Arden, of Tennyson's story, In his desolate home coming, when standing' outside in the drizzle of a November . night he saw through the window In the reflection of the cheery firelight He that other reigning In hla place. Lord of his rights and of his children's love. This Enoch Arden was cast away while engaged in the laudable endeavor to compass means whereby ha might give his children A better bringing up than his had been or hers. Though yearning for home, he could not get home, for Che simple reason that for ten years no ship came his way. He was by compulsion A shipwrecked sailor waiting for a salt. And he got-home at the earliest pos sible moment. But for the man' who goes away In a huff, stays away be cause he wants .to, allows his wife to think he is dead, and Indeed encourages this belief, and after he gets tired of this sort of thing corned back to find that she Is married to another man, there is neither sympathy nonplty. Let such recreant go his way. He ought to be used to It after years of a go-as-you-please gait. The attempt of the Washington Dem ocrats to make capital for George Tur ner out of the lumbermen's demand for a 40-cent rate ha3 apparently fallen flat It Is not Improbable that a. great many of the candidates for the Legislature on both tickets signed Mr. Beckman's pledge to support "any and all meas ures" without a full knowledge of what It meant, and when he. attempted to drag the lumber Industry still further Into politics by lining it up for Turner the lumbermen very properly refused. There may or may not be any truth In the report that Mr. Beckman has been promised an office by Turner In return for his very active work among the lumbermen, but it is certain that he is taking an unusual interest In be fuddling Washington politics with mat ters which might very properly have been omitted. There can be no clean politics where a majority of the Legis lature is pledged to adopt, IT necessary, tho methods of the "cinch bill" artist, the blackmailer and the political high wayman. Mr. Roosevelt's reply to Judge Parker makes an Issue never before presented between candidates for the Presidency. Mr. Roosevelt distinctly says that Judge Parker has uttered falsehoods. And of course he has; It is a pity the campaign Has come to this;- but Judge Parker has brought It to this. Mr. Roosevelt, though" President, was not bound to submit in silence to Judge Parker's slanderous and calumnious statements. Judge Parker's long asso ciation with the disreputable politicians who have made him what he is has brought him below the level of a gen tleman! And that Is a pity; or rather the pity of it is that such a man is the candidate of a party for the Presidency. General Lew Wallace, soldier, diplo mat and author, at the age of 77 la writing an autobiography. In It he will tell how Grant saved Mexico as a re public. He will recount a religious talk with Robert G. Ingersoll, who influ enced him to rewrite the widely read novel "Ben Hur." General Wallace was Interviewed at his home a few days ago by Frank G. Carpenter on theBe and other interesting topics. What be said will be published in The Sunday Orego nian tomorrow. The New York World makes a fore cast of the Presidential election In which it concedes the Republicans 201 out of the necessary 239 votes. It says the Democrats are assured of 159 'Votes the Solid South is mighty helpful to the Democraoy while In the doubtful class it places 116. Among these are states like Connecticut, Idaho, New Jersey, Utah.iWisconsin and Wyoming, with a total of 39 votes. The World ought to guess again. Candidate Davis continues to scatter gems of wisdom among the voters of West Virginia. His platform to date seems to be higher prices for the pro ducer, lower prices for the consumer, protection for the Industries that need It, no protection for, the Industries that do not need it, let the good trusts alone, and punish the bad trusts. Uncle Henry Is much Interested in the West Virginia voter; but not half so much as the voter Is Interested In Uncle Henry a3 a cam paign producer. That the principal supply of domestic help must come from immigrants is a Belf-evldent proposition. Portland housewives who are earnestly seeking reform by way of organization will be Interested to know that an Immigrant Girls. Trust Is In existence In New York which keeps in touch with members Jri all parts of the country. Its workings are described by a wide-awake corre spondent in The Sunday Oregonian to morrow. The Post-Intellgencer says that the fraudulent registrations In- the First Ward of Seattle will reach one thou sand. The job is believed to have been done chiefly In the Interest of the Dem ocratic candidate ' for the office of Sheriff. ' During the maneuvers of the Black Sea fleet "not a single ship understood or obeyed the Admiral's signals." So now say the Russians In extenuation of the trawler tragedy. It was all due to ignorance. Probably. How can our own Mr. Powers and his satellites in local Democracy espouse the Parker cause on a "stand-pat" is sue? Painless dentistry should be the, next course of study for the students who drove Dr. Lane out of the classroom. Th Interpretation thro is that acf Parker 1s & liar. A COSTLY CASYASS. Ths Methods Employed by Repub licans in New York and Indiana. St. Paul Pioneer Press. "Clean poIltlcsV sometimes cost money, especially when opposed to dirty politics. Rooseveltian standards have been ap plied In the operations o the Repub lican managers during the present con test: but how expensive those opera tions yet are Is shown by the fact that, to prevent the carrying of New York State by the old-fashioned Tammany methods of colonization and reocatinx. Mr. Odell's state commltteo took a com plete census of Greater New York. They got down the name and residence of every voter, thus placing it in their power to challenge and arrest any person attempt ing to cast an illegal vote. The coat of that census probably equaled the cost of taking the United States census of the same area in 1900, and probably also equaled.ln amount any "corruption fund" ever spent in Now York. But It was money well and honestly expended. Its results are seen In the fact that New York has secured the fairest registration, with the probability of the cleanest elec tion to follow, known for many' a year. Also in a marked decrease, since the work was done, of Democratic claims re garding the result in the Empire State. It has been shown that the city majority for Parker, relied on to overmatch tho country majority for Roosevelt, will be far Bmaller than before anticipated. The betting, which was nnce even, is now 5 to 1 in favor of Roosevelt. Hlggins, too has become the favorite In the betting-ring as against Herri ck. This Is really an unreliable criterion, but a pop ular one. nevertheless. It has cost a great deal of money, too, to canvass Indiana and other so-called "doubtful states" in the expensive ways adopted. But at the close nobody will be able to point to a dollar illegitimately used, for Republican successes by Mr. Cortelyou's committee or with lt3 consent- Neither wiU Theodore Roosevelt enter upon his second term of office handicapped, by pledges to any contrib utor to the Republican campaign fund. Tho knowledge of these facts Is "heart ening," not only to the men who have generously contributed to that fund, but to the wholo body of Roosevelt voters, and to all who hope for the "final regen eration of political methods the country over. .TAGGART ON INDIANA. Mr. Thomas Taggart, of Indiana, con tinues to utter his prophecies that Par ker will cany Indiana. Thls persistency on the part of Mr. Taggart has brought out reminiscent statements as to his similar prophecies In former times, from Mr. Harry New, also of Indiana, now vice-chairman of the' Republican Na tional Committee. Certain of these recol lections arc worth reprinting, towit: Mr. Taggart was chairman of the Democratic State Central Committee In 1892 and 1804. and as chairman then and since he has made all sorts of predictions, few of which ever have been verified. In ISM he predicted Democratic victory In Indiana, until the night before the election, 'and the Republicans carried Indiana the next day by 44,000 plurality. Just before the Presidential election of 1800 Mr. Taggart again ' entered the field of prophecy, and Oc tober 22" wrote a card fpr the Indianapolis News, which appeared In that paper over his own signature. Here Is what he said: "I desire to say that Indiana never looked brighter for a Democratic victory than it does at this time, and I feel sure, from the reports received from all parts of the state, that the electoral and state tickets will both be suc ceeefuL" Both tickets were defeated by something like 18.D00 majority. ' Then again, in October. 1900, Mr. Taggart went to New York to raise money for the Indiana campaign, and on the day on which he returned to Indianapolis the New York Sun quoted him as follows: "I am going back to Indiana tonight, my friends. We are going to carry Indiana. -We are going to carry the Union. We are going to elect Bry an." There has not been a National or state elec tion. in the last 14 yean) In which the genial Tom has not Indulged In the same kind of talk, and the Democrats have gone on losing their money, betting on the Inaccuracy of his predictions all the time. I don't believe the Democrats will come anywhere near carrying Indiana, and I don't believe that Tom thinks so either. If ho does, he Is as badly deceived now as his jown newspaper utterances prove him to have been on past occasions. HOW PARKER WAS MISLED. Antl-Imperlallst Emissary Gives Him False Information. Chicago Tribune. Judge Parker's "impartial student of conditions," upon whose authority he based his startling statements concerning the Government in the Philippines, was an agent of the Anti-imperialistic League. H. Parker Willis supplies the Demo cratic candidate for President with the vmaterlaL He spent five months In the islands, returning in August. io was sent there by men who say now they "thought the. colonial government was wrong and an investigation would prove it." Willis was assigned to get the "truth," they affirm, but with the ex pectation that the result would uphold previously conceived opinions nourished by thoAntI-Imperlallstlo League. ' Edwin Burritt Smith, of Chicago; Carl Bcburz,. .Charles Francis Adams, Herbert Welsh'and Moorfleld Storey composed the committee by which Willis was sent, and to which he reports. Judge Parker has admitted that Willis supplied him with the statements refuted by facts in possession of the Government departments at Washington and by the reply of Governor Wright of the island government, secured at the Instigation of the Tribune. Thus the unbfased and impartial author ity upon which the Democratic candidate based his assertions is revealed to have been the agent of a body of men starting with the Idea that things were wrong. The anti-Imperialists who sent the in vestigator to the Philippines declare their intentions were to secure the facts with out regard to their own opinions. They assert that they wanted to learn the ex act conditions, financial, agricultural, so cial and governmental. They admit the possibility that the Investigator, knowing that a report sustaining the preconceived opinions might please his employers the most, might have been influenced, even "unconsciously." Thalr instructions, they say, were to. get the facts,' regardless of any influ ences. Willis was to make an unbiased report and to satisfy himself of the abso lute truth of his statements. The com mittee believes he did so. Willis now Is professor of political sci ence In Washington and Lee University at Lexington, Va. He secured a degree of Ph. D. at tho University of Chicago, studying Under Professor Laughlin In the department of political economy. He aft erwards was secretary of the monetary commission, .and also was an editorial writer on the New York Evening Post. Later he was Washington correspondent of the New York Journal of Commerce and of the Springfield Republican. During Willis five months In the Philip pines it Is alleged that he made an ex haustive study of conditions. He is sup posed to have traveled extensively throughout the Islands, to have examined reports, to have made comparisons, and to have found that American rule had brought about devastation. . Not a Serious Affair. Philadelphia Press. "Poor Charlie is quite seriowly ill, X hear." "Oh, no! there's nothing macs sifoctWl" , "Why, I heard it was osveasstoa t Xhm brain;" "Well?" IXVESTIGATINGTBE SCANDAL. Governor of Arizona Is Inquiring Into Placing of Orphans. PHOENDC, Ariz., Nov. L Governor Brodie of Arizona la now in Clifton and Qlorenci Investigating the scandal ensu ing Trom the placing of orphan children from a New York foundling asylum; a Catholic Institution. In private families. The report that ho has been commis sioned by President Roosevelt to seize the children Is erroneous. After recent protests of the people of Morencl against asylum methods, and their taking sum mary charge of the orphans and disposing of them In private families, the Catholic authorities at the asylum presented the matter to President Roosevelt. It Is learned that Governor Brodie was in Washington at the time and the President requested him to Investigate and report, though not In an official capacity. Re turning home, he submitted a partial re port of the matter and is now making a further personal investigation. He is ex pected to return to Phoenix next Sunday or Monday. It Is furjher. learned that all but 14 of the children were taken back by the Catholic officials, and these 14 were placed In families who are now trying to aaopt them. The question Is purely a legal one and will be settled by the Pro bate Court of Graham County. FAVORS TREATY WITH AMERICA Germany Is Willing to Negotiate an Arbitration Agreement. WASHINGTON, Nov. 4. Negotiations have been Initiated for a treaty of arbi tration between Germany and the United States. Several days ago Presi dent Roosevelt suggested to Baron Sternberg, the Gorman Ambassador. that a treaty of arbitration between the United States and Germany would, in his judgment, be vry desirable. Am bassador Sternberg coincided with this view, and told tho President that he would Inquire of his government what steps. If any, it desired to take in the matter. Late this afternoon Ambassador Sternberg called upon President Roose velt and informed him that the German government had expressed itself as en tirely agreeable to the President's proposition and that he had been di rected to open formal negotiations for such a treaty. These negotiations will be conducted by Ambassador Sternberg on the part of Germany and Secretary Hay on the part of the United States. Cannot Remain In America. ST. LOUIS, Nov. 4. Six Chinese women who have been connected with a conces sion on the Pike on the World's Fair grounds, were arrested by Immigration Inspector A. C Ridgeway today on war rants charging them with being in this country for unlawful purpose's. Ho Hung, who attempted to end her life last night because she preferred death to returning to China, was among those ar rested. The arrests are understood to have been caused by the alleged confession of a Chinese woman, who was detained at San Francisco several months. On thestrength of this alleged confession Lee Toy, con- cessionalre of the World s Fair village, and Hypollte Dasllva, his agent, who went to China after tha girls, were ar rested. The girls will receive a.hearing before Immigration Inspector Dunn. Navy-Yard Wage Scale Stands. WASHINGTON, Nov. 4. At a confer ence at the Navy Department today be tween Secretary Morton and a local com mittee of tho Machinists' Union, it was arranged that the existing schedule of wages at the Washington navy-yards shall continue without change for the present and that the question of a revision of the wage scale shall be considered by the labor board at tho Navy-Yard at its next regular meeting in January. The wage scale Is fixed by this board semi annually and the present scale was ar ranged last July. Sooners' Likely to Make Trouble.' SALT LAKE, Nov. 4. Although the Uintah Indian Reservation In Northeast ern Utah is not to be thrown open for settlement until next March, already pros pective settlers are beginning to camp on the boundaries of the reservation, and trouble with "sooners" is anticipated be fore the date of opening. It is estimated that at Ashley and "Vernal 600 men are waiting for the opening. The reservation includes some of the richest farming and grazing lands In the state and is rich in minerals. Lawlessness Increasing in'Morocco. WASHINGTON, Nov. 4.r-Consul-Gen-eral Hoffman Phillip reports to the State Department from Tangier by mail under date of October 19 that in Morocco, par ticularly in the northern portion, there appears to be an increasing tendency to ward lawlessness and disregard of author ity among the restless tribes. There are as yet no evidences of French Interven tion to assist In the restoration of order.. Commission Inspects Coal Mines. POTTS VII. T.K, Pa.. Nov. 4. The Inter state Commission which Is investigating mining and transportation conditions in ths anthracite region, in connection with, tho suit of W. R. Hearst against the coal carrying railroads, today inspected the col lieries in the western end of the Schuylkill country and the mines north of Broad Mountain. Cruiser Tacoma Reaches New York. NEW YORK, Nov. 4. The cruiser Ta coma arrived here today from San Juan, P. R. She will go to the navy-yard to undergo necessary repairs. Russian Magazine Fired. TOKIO, Nov. 5. Press dispatches pub lished this morning announce that the Japanese shells have fired a Russian magazine at tho foot of Paiyinshan Mountain, which contained hot only much ammunition, but also large quantities of provisions. Tho lossT it is believed, will prove a serIous.ohe to the Russians. The blowing up of'the six forts mentioned In earlier dispatches appears to haver'been brought, about by the Russians them selves, as they are beyond the range of the Japanese guns. Almost Complete Calm at Mukden. MUKDEN, Nov. 4. Almost complete calm has prevailed since noon of Novem ber 3. At daybreak today the Japanese fired a few shrapnel at men working in the trenches along the center of the Rus sian right flank, but the firing soon ceased. The Russians today celebrated the day of the Holy- Mother of Kasan. The sun shone brightly and the soldiers gathered in crowds around the' chorus singers and all the bands played, Protest 'Against Mobilization. BRESLAU, Prussia, Nov. 4. Three thousand Poles marched through the streets of Czesterochwa, Russian Poland, Wednesday, as a protest against the mobilisation. The chief of police and gendarmes ordered the naraders to dis perse, but they refused to do so, and continued to sing Polish songs. A de tachment of infantry then charged the mob with, bayonets, with the result that six persons Were killed and 20 were -wounded. Admiral Maksc Round of Visits. TANGIER, Nov. 4. Vice-Admiral Ro Jestvensky paid a round of visits this morainff. Hft called on the commander el the TVench crulaer Kleber, en the com mander of the 'British cruiser Diana and Bit MobAoMBed M Torres, the representa tive at .Tangier of the ltan oi Moroeeo. Tk uMal'tAlttUs wre Ired. XohMtaMd 2X Torre retsr4 tltt AAttiraT call at ib' RtMcfan. Legation. ' NOTE AND COMMENT. . Built on New Plan? The girls are the prettiest seen at this house In many years too large, mostly for the small stage, but well arranged. Dramatic .criticism la New Tosk MalL Last call for fool election bets. Port Arthur begins to understand the evils of tight lacing. One of these days Aeronaut Knabenahue may take a drop too much. A drop In the bucket Isn't much, but a drop in the bucket-shop may be serious. By the way, has It ever been judicially decided that fan-tant Is a gambling game? It's about time the authorities got to gether and bricked, up the Hole-In-the-Wall. . - Ethel Whatjs a "society girl?" Saman tha She's a girl that can't be de scribed In any other way. ,i So long as the public can get . "two straight up" with its breakfast bacon, the scarcity of salmon eggs will create no general alarm. One thing should be remembered to tha credit of the Baltic fleet: Its offlcers.didn't get into a squabble over the: flagship's looping the loop. . , New Yorkers are, already howling about tho subway service. The same old strap hanging game has to be gone through aboard the low-down cars. Municipal Theater Extended engage ment of Tom Word In that thrilling drama, "Pulling the Poolroom, or A Horse on the Horses." Advt., Two attorneys In Sheboygan (Wis.) are credited with having asked 1234 questions about some damaged cheese. The cheese should have been brought into 'court to speak for Itself. Madam Schnccsnoffski. who slipped away from the Mount Tabor Sanitarium, is said to be safely bestowed in a -neighboring house. We thought all along that the lady couldn't drag her name very far. Pajamas have been officially adopted for use In tho Army, although the Navy still clings to the old nightshirt Thi3 may possibly be explained by the fact that the sailors can never be made the victims of a night surprise. Up at Willamette University they have discovered that the fly has troubles of its own. We fear, however, that Pro fessor Boyer Is wasting his time if he i3 attempting to arouse sympathy for the 'flea-bitten fly among the bald-headed. A Chicago man is kicking because the girl to whom he was engaged kept the valuable ring he had given her, and re-turned-a cheap imitation. Instead of go ing to the worry and expense of suing the girl, the man should marry her, for a wife with such business enterprise would be a priceless boon to anybody. No American will take a tip. San Francisco Bulletin. What is boodle but a Up? What is "legitimate graft'" but a tip? What, in deed, is all graft but a form of tip? And coming down to the -tip that is too small to be called anything but a tip. it wouldn't be hard to flhd Americans of many 6ccupatlons that arb'ready fo ac cept all the tips they .can have offered them. Vanderbllt horses now wear nightshirts made of fine linen. These protect their coats from the blankets worn at night. In Paris the lap dogs are provided with gum shoes to keep their feet dry, and in New York the automobile shops cell sweaters for dogs, so that Prince or Carlo may be saved from catching pneumonia as he Is whirled along in his owner's whizz car. The only fashionable luxury the "smart set" seems to deny Its pets Is divorce. Developments in the case of Caesar Toung, who committed suicide as the evidence Indicates In a cabin New York, suggest that there must be thousands of people on the streets of a .great city all anxious for one reason or another to keep their identity or their whereabouts a secret. The "red-headed man," for in stance,, was afraid to come forward with his evidence because ho had been a con vict and did not want his employers to learn his story, as they would have- done through the publicity given every. detail of the case. Two merchants from near by townB, although they saw Young shoot himself, allowed tha Patterson woman to be thrown In Jail, accused ol murder, without saying a word in her be half. Presumably these two men were in New York for "a good time,' and were afraid to have their friends and relatives know the truth. It three men afraid of publicity happened to be witnesses of this shooting in a cab, how many others musf be walking the streets of New York? WEX. J. OUT OF THE GINGER JAR. Honest He It's hard to "keep a secret sometimes. Isn't it? She I don't know; I've never tried it Detroit Free Press. The Messenger Boy (disdainfully) Ter a bright sneriocic, youse are! Soy, did yer ever notIc de fambly resemblance between a doughnul an a life-preserver? Puck. Stern Parent Now, Georgie, Td like to p,u! In a whola day without once scolding or pun ishing you. Georgie Well, you have my con. sent. Baltimore American. Spellbinder rve nailed 17 different lies during this campaign. Voice from Audience Have- you got a union carpentera card, cull? Louisville Courier-Journal. "What conclusion does that campaign or ator reach in his argument?" "He never ar rives at a conclusion. He merely stops now and then to take breath." Washington Star. "He's written a problem play." "I thought he- was so moral." "He Is." "Wall, then, what's the problem?" "The problem. Is. 'How long will the play last? "Cleveland Plain Dealer. Butcher I need a boy about your size, and will pay you SS a week. Boy--Wlll I have a chancy to rise? Butcher Oh yes. Tou must be here at 4 o'clock every morn ing. Judge. Client to. Lawyer Don't you. think you bel lowed a good deal in your speech to the jury? lawyer Tes; but you see my argument was oo slim that I had touse force to make them swallow it. Detroit JBt-ee Press. . "I seo they are talking of making clothes now out of some sort of wood.". "dee whiz: Then I guess we'll And woodpeckers and squirrels in our clothes hereafter instead of moths." Philadelphia' Eress. It was 11 o'clock P. if. when the' Japanese fire ceased. "Repulsed?" aid one of the Itas. slan officers eagerly. "Oh, I'm afraid not," replied a companion. "I guess they've Just knocked 6ft for the night." Brooklyn Life:, "How's th earth divided?" asked a eai pons examiner who had already wors .Out tha patience of the clssa. "By earthquake," re plied one boy; after which the examteer faesd thatf he had enough orUMt dn.-Nw Terfeer. "How. old are yon?" brusquely lIrA tk comic oera. naaaer. "Blarhtees." th. as- jtleast 'fef Ut ckorsa r.epU, "with W pfctowi candor. "Tes? JTor haw mmttr mm' kv you. ba tax tkt desitabto eoe dillon?" Philadelphia Ttb . 5 '