VOL. XLIV. NO. 13,672. -
PORTLAND, OREGON, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4, 1904.
PRICE FIVE CENTS.
EfNMEHAGLE
Parker Must Get 80
Doubtful Votes.
ROOSEVELT ONLY SIXTEEN
Issue of the Campaign Rests
on Nine States."
INDIANA MOST TO PARKER
Should He Get All Other Debatable
Territory and Lose It, Tie Will
Result, Which Means House
Will Re-EIect President.
FORECAST OF ELECTION.
6urely Republican. Sorely Democratic
California ... 10
Illinois 27
Iowa 13
Idaho 3:
Alabama 11
Arkansas 9
Fiorina 6
Georgia 12
Kansas 10
Maine 6.
Massachusetts . J6
Kentucky
13
Louisiana ....
Maryland
Mississippi ...
Missouri .....
. 9
. 8
. 10
. 18
Michigan 14
Minnesota ..... 11
Nebraska . . 8
North Carolina.
12
iw Hampshire 4
South. Carolina.. 9
North Dakota.. 4. Tennessee 12
Ohio 23
Oregon 4
Pennsylvania .. 34
Rhode Island .. 4
South Dakota ... 4
Utah S
"Vermont ...... 4
Washington ... 8
'Wyoming' . . . 3
Wisconsin. 18
Txas .
Virginia
18
.. 13
.159
Total
223,
States Called. Doubtful.
Colorado 6
New Jersey..... 12
Connecticut
7New York , 39
Delaware 3
West Virginia 7
Indiana ........ -15
Montana ....... S
Nevada 3
Total electoral vote... ........ ......476
Necessary to elect........ 239
Votes needed by Republican from
doubtful states IS
By Democrats 80
WASHINGTON, Oct. S.--(Special.) Tlia
foregoing forecast ot the Presidential
election Is based on the most accurate in
lormatlon obtainable at this time. In
spite of the apparent largo advantage on
the Republican side, the estimate agrees,
strange to say, with the views of the
leading Democratic sachems, yet not to
the point of disheartening them, for they
draw abundant hope from the list of
doubtful states. But the chiefs in the
Parker camps cannot dispel the fear that
the Republicans will be able to secure
enough votes from the uncertain column
to elect their candidate.
Roosevelt needs only 16 electoral votes,
or thereabouts, from the column, while
Parker must have as many as 80. None
but the most rock-rlbbM and hide-bound
Democrat denies that the Republicans
ihave a fair chance of winning Indiana
with 15, New Jersey with 12 and Dela
ware with three, or contends it is impossi
ble for his own party to lose New York
with 39, Connecticut with seven and "West
yirginia with seven.
To call the Democratic Quest a forlorn
hope might perhaps not be true, for in all
elections are chances which cannot be
foreseen, yet such a statement would not
belie present appearances. If there is any
certainty of approximation to truth In
pre-election appearances, it may be put
down that Roosevelt cannot be beaten.
Many safe and sane Democrats have ad
mitted the doubt, and Republicans who
apprehend Roosevelt'3 defeat are scarce
as last year's blrdnests.
Democrats Must Rely on Miracle.
'Unless a miracle aids the Democratic
cause in the next flvo weeks causing a,
stampede to Its candidate, the stars in
their courses will continue unfavorable to
Parker. In spite of the chorus, a Demo
cratic mathematician Is quoted as say
ing Democratic figures are unsympathetic
and rainbow painting Is as chilly as the
north pole borealls. Democrats concede
the states here named surely Republican,
with the possible exception of Idaho, Utah
and Rhode Island, which have only 10
electoral votes, hut which Republicans re
gard as safely their own. The Democratic
claim to those states is faint and seldom
heard.
Republicans concede the 14 solid South
states as surely Democratic On nine
states rests the issue of the campaign,
and there both parties are concentrating
their efforts. Bach counts them doubt
ful. It is evident that Parker must have
Indiana or lose. Should he win all the
other doubtful states and lose Indiana, the
result in the electoral college would be a
tie according to the exhibit, and the
House of Representatives would elect
Roosevelt. Parker would fail also if he
should lose Connecticut, "West Virginia
and Delaware, or Connecticut and New
Jersey, or New" Jersey and West Virginia,
cr Colorado and New Jersey, or Colorado,
Connecticut and West Virginia.
New York Not Essential.
From every point of view. New York is
absolutely essential to Parker, but It Is
not essential to Roosevelt. Yet, Republi
cans are confident of carrylng!New York,
more confident still of carrying Connec
ticut, New Jersey and West Virginia.
Though Delaware has a local factional
fight, but one electoral ticket Is In the
field. Republicans claim the state, and
Democrats do not, though the latter have
not surrendered hope.
All Republican estimates give Indiana
to Roosevelt by pluralities ranging up to
S0.000. Of Montana and Nevada, little
is known here, but Democrats put up the
stronger claims. On Colorado, neither
uariy counts with confidence. Utah is
HOP
regarded in Republican circles as un
questionably safe.
As before stated, the figures indicate
that any 15 electoral votes out of the
doubtful list case for Roosevelt would
tie the electoral college and make Roose
velt President through the House of
Representatives. Of course, that Is a re
mote contingency and its possibility is
mentioned only to show how few votes
Roosevelt needs from the questionable
states. Republicans insist that it is more
probable that their candidate will win
the so-called doubtful states than that
Parker will win any three of them, but
no three can elect him, though Indiana
is regarded by Republicans as the surest
of the doubtful states Democrats declare
as theirs. The latter are under tho ne
cessity of doing so for reasons already
set forth. For the same reason they lay
claim to New York and West Virginia
and more faintly Connecticut and West
Virginia and Delaware.
All hope of their carrying Wisconsin
and Illinois, which was their comfort
early in the campaign, has been abandoned.
Beef Trust fpr Roosevelt.
NEW YORK. Oct. 3. (Special.) A
Chicago special to the World says:
'The beef trust is for Roosevelt.
Some of its officers have made big con
tributions to the campaign fund. J.
Ogden Armour today said:
" 'We are going to support Roosevelt
most emphatically. We have been sat
isfied with his Administration, ano will
bo well satisfied to have him continue
in office.'
'"The Swifts and other members of
the other beef trust company are also
Republicans and for Roosevelt.
Oregon Will Give Big Majority.
OREGONIAN NEWS BUREAU, Wash
ington, Oct. 3. J. W. Ivey, of Alaska,
told the President today Oregon and
Washington would each roll up Repub
lican majorities of 30,000 this Novem
ber. DAY HOME PE0M ALASKA.
Judge Who Investigated Federal Of
fices Will Not Talk.
OREGONIAN NEWS BUREAU. Wash
ington, D. C, Oct- 3. Judge Day, who
was sent to Alaska last Juno to investi
gate charges brought against Judges
Brown and Wickersham and various other
officials of the Judiciary, has returned to
"Washington to report to the Attorney
General and President. On his report,
the President will determine whether
tho Judges and various district attorneys
and marshals shall bo reappointed or
whether service demands new men. Judge
Day absolutely refuses to discuss his
findings.
Place for ex-Oregon Official.
ORlsJGONIAN NEWS BUREAU. Wash
ington, D. C, Oct,3.Mlss MolUe Gaither,.
former superintendent of the Uma'Clla In
dian school, has been appointed outing
agent at tho Carlisle Indian school,
Pennsylvania, at a salary of $1000 per
year.
ICE PACK BLOCKS STBAIT.
Winter Is Rapidly Setting In in the
Hudson Bay Country.
ST. JOHNS, N. F.. Oct. 2. The
French fur steamer Stord. from Hudson
Bay, has arrived here. She reports Win
ter Is rapidly setting in, and that an ice
pack blocked Hudson Strait on August
12. There had been frequent snowstorms
before September S. The temperature at
that time was never above 35 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Tho Canadian cruiser .Neptune was
sighted on September 10, proceeding west
through tho Strait. Tho captain of the
Stord expressed doubts that the steamer
Gauss would be able to cet tnrough the
straits this year.
(The Neptune Is one of a certain ex
pedition sent to enforce certain laws
against American whalers. The steamer
Gauss was three years ago engaged In
Antarctic exploration under the auspices
of the Germans. Early this year she
was repurchased, named the Arctic, and
sailed for the North under the command
of Captain Bemier for the purpose of
annexing a number of Arctic Islands to
Great Britain, after which she was to
proceed as far as possible in the direction
of the north pole.)
LIVES OF F0TR SNUFFED. OUT
Earth and Ore Falls in Georgia Mina
Two Men Injured.
CARTERSVILLE, Go., Oct. 4. By the
falling of earth and ore in tho Morgan
mine, the lives of four men were
snuffed out here today. Two others
are seriously Injured, and are expected
to die. The dead:
R. P. Morgan, president and manager
of the Morgan Mining Company.
James Harris, Jr., white, Cartersville.
Robert Boynton, negro, Cartersville.
Unknown negro.
Injured: Wright Miller. Cartersville;
Al Buford, Cartersville.
COACHES ABE OVERTURNED.
Four Persons Killed and Fifty Injured
In English Railway Accident.
LONDON, Oct 3. Four persons were
killed and it is estimated that about 50
were Injured, some of them fatally, in a
railway accident near Llanelly. 15 miles
southeast of Carmarthen, Wales, today.
An express train drawn by two engines
was derailed, the engines Jumping the
track and several coaches being over
turned. .
LEAVE TO CHRISTEN SHIP.
Prominent Nebraskans Are En Route
to Seattle.
LINCOLN, Neb.. Oct. 3. A party com
prising Governor Mickey and his staff,
five other state officers and ladies with
enough others to make a total of 35 left
tonight in a special car on the Burlington
for Seattle, where on Friday they will
take part in the launching of the battle
ship Nebraska. Miss Mary Naln Mickey,
daughter of the Governor, will christen
the ship.
Noted Sculptor Seriously III.
PARIS, Oct. 3. Frederick Augustus
Bartboldi. the sculptor of tho .statue of
Liberty of New York Bay, is -critically ill
with tuberculosis.
Tokio Has Reassuring
Advices From Arthur.
STEADY PROGRESS OF SIEGE
Russian Squadron Is Reduced
to Great Straits.
BIG STEAMER STRIKES MINE
Engaged In Clearing Channel for tho
Fleet at the Time-Mikado's Army,
as Result of New System, Will
Contain 1,000,000 Men.
Small outpost fights constitute, the
sum of the activities reported from the
vicinity ot Mukden.
The Japanese blockade of Port Arthur
is so effective thatGeneral Stoessel has
been unable to Inform the War Office
at St. Petersburg' of the situation there.
The report of the arrival of the Russian
armored crutoer Bayan, of the Port Ar
thur squadron, at Hanchau Bay, near
Shanghai, has no official confirmation.
SPECIAL. CABLE TO THE) LONDON TIMES
AND PORTLAND OREGONIAN.
TOKIO, Oct. 4. It Is officially announced
here that while the enemy's clearing
squadron was operating outside of Port
Arthur, on September 20, a large steamer
struck a -mine and sank. A number of
similar disasters have been suffered by the
enemy ever since the clearing squadron
resumed operations In July.
It now appears that the squadron has
been reduced t6 great straits. According
to Russian reports all the Japanese at
tacks upon Port Arthur between Septem
ber 20 and 26 have been repulsed by the
Russians. These reports are not credited
In Tokio, where Information has-been re
ceived, showing steady progress of the
siege and the recent capture of several
important positions.
The Minister of Finance rntertained a
number of the leading bankers on Octo
ber 1 at a dinner and later announced that
he Intended to issue the final installment
of the war loan of 80.000,000 yen (about as
much in dollars) at 92, 5 per-cent repay
ment, to end in seven years. These terms
fere the same as were made for the last
issue, and it is expected that the money
will be readily subscribed.
Two hundred and twenty-two miles of
the Seoul-Fusan railway have been laid,
leaving only 60 miles for completion. The
work on the Seoul-WIJu railway is also
progressing rapidly, as well as on tho
Decoville -line from Kiulleng .Cheng to
Feng Chwang Chen, whence It will extend
next Spring to Liao Yang.
According to the Japanese military sys
tem hitherto In force, service with the
colors commences at the age of 20 and
lasts three years. With the expiration of
this term, the men pass into the reserve
for a term of nine years and then. the ter
ritorial army. The latter is not liable to
service abroad.
The new system extends the reserve ser
vice to fourteen and one third years, and
inasmuch as the change became operative
on the day of promulgation, all men who
served with the colors from 1SS7 to 1S91 are
added to the strength of the active army.
Statistics show the number -of such men
to be 331. 15, from which must be deducted
10 per cent for casualties. There remain,
then, 300,000 men actually available. This
calculation is necessarily based on the re
turns prior to the program of extension.
The total war strength will ultimately be
brought up to over a million men.
At the farewell banquet given on Sun
day by Prince Karl Van Hohenzollern, a
Japanese prince, in proposing the health
of. Emperor William, said that tho des
patch of so distinguished & member of the
German Imperial family to accompany the
Japanese army constitutes a strong proof
of tho friendship cementing not only two
courts but also two empires.
FORCE PRACTICALLY WIPED OUT
Only TweJve Out of 4000 Men Es
caped In Port Arthur Assault.
LONDON, Oct .4. The Daily Telegraph's
Nagasaki correspondent, cabling under
date of Sept. 23, says:
"Terrible artillery conflicts are adding
to the horrors of tho situation at Port
Arthur. On September 22 and 23 the Rus
sians made sorties against positions held
by the Kanagawa Regiment and desperate
fighting ensued. The Japanese force was
practically annihilated, only one non
commissioned officer and 11 men remain
ing alive out of the 4000 who went into
the engagement.
"The Japariese tunnel into Port Arthur
was completed on September 24 and was
Immediately used. The result Is un
known." EXPECTS MORE BATTLES SOON
Russian General Believes Liao Yang
Opened a BJoody Campaign.
(SPECIAL CABLE.)
LONDON, Oct. 3. General Romanoff,
late commander of the Sixth Division
of the Russian army at the front, and
who received injuries which tempor
arily incapacitated him, has been in
terviewed with regard to the situation
In the Far East. He said in part: 1
"Tho present big war really -began
with the battle at Liao Yang:, and we
may now expect a series, of bloody .en
gagements. The situation is now en
tering upon s; period of Russian ad
vances, which will prove the more com
plicated and difficult halt ot the cam
paign. We all believe that we shall
win, but looking at the root of the
matter, I say that the war will be a
sovere one since the enemy has turned
out to be a brave and capable one. Be
sides having to fight the enemy proper,
"we have to contend with difficulties at
our own base.
T strongly believe that had General
Kuropatkln not been haunted with
fears for tho position ot the army,
gathered together after such super
human efforts from a distance of 10,000
versts, and taken the chances of a de
cisive battle at Liao Yang he would, in
all probability, have won. But to have
done that he would have been com
pelled to risk ail if he had suffered de
feat, and defeat might' have ended the
whole war."
FOUR DAYS' BATTLE REQUIRED
Japanese Gave No Thought to Losses
In Last Port Arthur Fighting.
.CHEFOO. Oct. 3 A private let
ter received today from Port Arthur
dated September 23 gives further details
of tho fighting of September 19 to Septem
ber 22. The attack began with a heavy
bombardment directed against nearly all
the Russian outposts, and many of the
main forts. The slielllng of the redoubts
protecting the water supply of Port Ar
thur was tremendous. Nightfall Septem
ber 13, found the waterworks redoubts re
duced to mere heaps of debris. The gar
risons of the redoubts thereupon retreated
safely to the main fortifications under the
cover of darkness.
At 4 o'clock the same afternoon the Jap
anese assault of "high hill" began. The
Japanese plan of attack never varied.
First a bombardment and then an assault,
and when repulsed a bombardment again
and then another assault.
Eventually the Japanese succeeded In
placing one field gun and two machine
guns in position behind hastily made bar
riers. Their tenure of the position, ow
ing to the fire of the inner forts, was
very Insecure, and when Lieutenant Pog
gorsky and the volunteers charged tho
tide turned against them. One battalion,
composed of the remnants of two compa
nies, wa3 annihilated in trenches which
they refused to desert. Another detach
ment was driven into the Russian entan
glements, where Captain Sychaff's force
was waiting, and completed Its rout. Two
other attempts made by the Japanese to
retake the positions failed.
STOESSEL FULL OF COURAGE.
Japanese Failures at Port Arthur
Cause Him to Be More Hopeful.
ST. PETERSBURG, Oct. 3. The reports
circulated abroad during the last few
days that the Emperor had received most
pessimistic reports rom Lieutenant-Gen-oral
Stoessel are denied. . It Is learned au
thoritatively that the Emperor did not re
ceive a single dispatch from Stoessel while
he was away. On the contrary, the feel
ing about Port Arthur Is distinctly more
hopeful, owing to the failure of the be
siegers to make headway.
Nemirovich. Danchenko. the Russian
war ,ijr-f ispUiMicat, wua rsoantly received
by General Kuropatkln at Mukden. He
telegraphs that the commander is looking
hale and hearty, and that his ' words
breathe unruffled confidence. Kuropatkln
Is worshipped by the soldiers and enjoys
the unbounded, confidence of the officers
whom he cheers and invigorates by exam
ple Into unceasing activity. To the young
er officers he says constantly:
"Be patient. We are sure to win. The
enemy must and shall be vanquished.
Till then, help one another. Be vigilant.
Remember now Is the time to learn. So
take your lessons to heart."
CONTENTS OF TODAYS PAPEB
Political.
Roosevelt needs only 16 votes of those In doubt
ful column, while Parker requires 8a Page L
Bryan takes stump In Nebraska and again says
his views are not in harmony with those of
Parker. Page 2.
Fairbanks and Pulton begin tour of California,
speaking at Ban Francisco In the evening.
Page 3.
Republican factions in Delaware make peace.
Page 2.
Parker returns to New Toic and Is giving close
attention to campaign details. Page 2.
Rosso-JapaBeee War.
Toklo Is advised that army is making- steady
progress at Port Arthur. Page 1.
Last position taken by Japan eso required four
days' fighting. Page 1.
Czar will name a new Commander-in-Chief In
48 hours. Page 5.
Inability of scouts to locate Oyama'a right
alarms Russian War Office. Page 5.
National.
Secretary Hay, at International Congress,
pledges America to arbitration. Page 1.
General health of the Army shows an improve
ment. Paso S.
Domestic.
Postmaster-General Payne is not expected to
live another day. Page 1.
Workings of Missouri boodle combine complete
ly revealed by ex-Speaker Kelly, page 3.
PoreJgx.
Balfour says Unionists will do no bargaining
with Irish party. Page 3.
New Russian Minister of Interior begins put-'
ting- Into effect liberal policy he promised.
Page 3.
Commercial and Marine.
Heavy shortage'ln Maine corn pock. Page 13.
Grain speculation tame at San Francisco.
Page 13.
Chicago wheat market affected by Portland's)
flour shipments. Page 13.
Another cargo of coal arrives from Australia.
Page 12.
Conflicting movement ot stock prices at New
Tork. Page 13.
Pacific. Coast.
Methodist Conference at Eugene, makes new
appointments and adjourns. Page 5. '
Mildred Bryant commits suicide at Salem be.
cause ot love affair. Page 4. a
County School Superintendents. mak annual
reports. Page 4.
Walla Walla. Penitentiary employes said to be
forced In line, for Turner. Page 4.
Sports.'
Pacific Coast League scores: Taccma 3, Seattle
2. Page 9.
Portland stad Vicinity.
Adolph Gaudron fatally wounds Pierre Serge-
Kisslow. a business rival, and commits sui
cide. Page 8.
Senator Turner expresses confidence of election
as Governor of Washington. Page 12.
Railroads announce new rates on grain, east
and west bound. Page 8.
Ruth Osborne shoots jealous lover who attacked
her. Pace 8.
Son. fooling with pistol, accidentally shoots his
father. Page 10.
Sheriff Word receives threatening letter. Page
12.
Mayor Williams propceaa an amesded box ordi
nance. Page 14.
Hopbuyers wait for cable advices. Page 9.
Aaron Beck, aged pioneer, dies of paralysis.
Page S.
MsTiiTTm hold annual meeting. Page. 7.
Chamber bf Commerce -fixes grata standard
for Northwest. Page 12.
.rjtfSeatties la IVatsrsal' Better 'ftirrtitlniL
ax solved. Page 10.
EMEDYFORWAR
Hay Agrees With Tolstoi
It Is Religion.
NOTABLE SPEECH FOR PEACE
Secretary of State Addresses
International Congress.
-. ,, !
COMMENDS THE HAGUE COURT
j
Support Of Administration Is Pledged
rr ,
to Arbitration Great Boston Au
dltorium Is Unable to Accom
modate the Thousands.
BOSTON, Oct. 3. Secretary of State
John Hay, representing the United States
of America, spoke tho word of welcome
this afternoon to the delegates to the
International Peace Congress, who as
sembled here for the first formal meet
ing of the thirteenth annual convention.
Secretary Hay traced briefly the war
history of this country and pointed out
that the country's greatest men had
been warm advocates of peace. He
agreed with Tolstoi that religion is the
remedy for war. Ho promised the Ad
ministration's support, so far as practica
ble, to the principle of arbitration of
such questions as may not be settled
through diplomatic negotiations, and. ex
pressed confidence that at no distant
day the attention of the nations might
be brought to a project looking toward
the return of peace In the Far East.
The meeting was held in Tremont Tem
ple. Before 2 o'clock the Auditorium was
jammed and streams of people were
turned away from the entrances.
Edwin D. Mead, chairman of the com
mittee on organization ot the Peace Con
gress, after calling the meeting to order,
said:
"If the press of the world would adopt
and persist in the high resolve that war
shall be no more, the clangor of arms
would cease from tho rising pf the sun
to Its going down, and. wo could fancy
that at' last ovr tars, no longer stunned
by the din of armies, might hear the
morning etars singing together and all
the sons of God shouting for Joy.
"These words are not mine, but were
spoken at the International Peace Asso
ciation meeting at St. Louis a short
time ago by Secretary of State Hay,
and it Is with those words ringing in our
hearts that we rejoice that the Secretary
of State Is John Hay, and that he is with
us today."'
The Secretary then delivered his speech,
which was received with the highest
favor.
Mayor Collins said no word of his was
necessary to welcome peace delegates to
Boston, for Boston was the home of
peace. He Bald, if he were to paraphrase
a Bible text to suit the occasion it would
be this:
"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they
shall see God damned be the warmakers,
for they shall see the devil."
Right Rev. John Perclval, Bishop of
Hereford, was the first to make response.
He said the European nations looked to
the United States to lead in the move
ment for peace; that .the presence of
Secretary of State Hay in itself gave a
new character to the gathering, and he
felt grateful that the Secretary's speech
had been given In behalf of the Presi
dent of the United States, as well as in
his own behalf. "Mr. Hay is well known
in Europe and greatly respected and hon
ored," tho bishop continued.
The bishop then expressed the opinion
that a change was coming In peace af
fairs of the world. He thought the
world's thanks were due to the Emperor
of Russia for his rescript by which he
bad brought the questions of peace and
disarmament within the range of poli
tics, or practical discussion, at any rate.
"Our hope for peace," the speaker said,
"is fixed upon the policy of the United
States in years to come."
Mr. Lund, of the Norwegian Parlia
ment, presented tho greetings of his
country.
The meeting was closed by all present
Joining in a hymn written especially for
the occasion.
The next session ot the congress will
be held, tomorrow morning.
ADDRESS OF 8ECRETARY
HAY
America and Her Greatest Men Ever
Warm Advocates of Peace.
BOSTON. Oct. 3. After reviewing the
work of Presidents ana other great
Americans In behalf of peace. Secretary
Hay, in his speech before the interna
tional Peace Congress, turned his at
tention to Tho Hague conference.
First, he feelingly referred to the
death of Senator Hoar, ot Massachus
etts, as follows:
"As If heaven had decided to give a
sign of deepest significance to the hour
ot your meeting It coincides with the
commitment to eternal peace ot all that
was mortal of our dead and honored co
laborer in this sacred cause George
Frlsbio Hoar. Not the least of his
many great acts was the firm and con
stant courage with which, through all
his illustrious life, hs pleaded for hu
manity and universal good will."
Coming to The Hague conference, Mr.
Hay said:
We ballad with joy the generous- initiative
ot the Russian Emperor, aad sent to the
conference at The 'Hague the hest'nien we
had In our civic and military life. When
The Hague Court lay apparently wrecked at
the beginning of its voyage, threatened with
death before It had fairly begun to live, it
was the American Government which gave
it the breath of life by Inviting the Repub
lic ot Mexico to share oht appeal to Its Juris
diction; and the second case brought before
It was at the Instance of Mr. Roosevelt, who
declined In Its favor the high honor of arbi
trating an affair of world-wide importance.
I beg you to. believe. It la sot by way ot
beast&g that I recall these lBcUeats to year
minds; it Is rather as a jrofessJoa . faith
is a. aavase which the yranwt Aamlaistrattea
has deesly at heart t&at X k yott 14 rav
member, in the deliberations upon which you
are entering, the course to which the Amer
ican Government Is pledged and which it has
steadily pursued for the last seven years. It
is true that In those years we have had- a
hundred days ot war but they put an end
forever to bloodshed which had lasted & gen
eration. We landed a tew platoons of ma
rines on the Isthmus last year;, but that act
closed without a shot of sanguinary succes
sion of trivial wars. We marched a little
army to Pekln; but it was to save not only
the beleaguered legations, but a great Im
periled civilization. By mingled gentleness
and energy, to which most ot the world be
yond our borders has done justice, we have
given to the Philippines, if not peace, at
least a nearer approach to it than they have
had within the memory of men.
No Army In America.
If our example Is worth anything to the
world, we have given it in the vital matter
of disarmament. We have brought away
from the Far East 55.000 soldiers, whose
work was dono, and have sent them back to
the fields of peaceful activity. "We have re
duced our Army to Its minimum of 60,000
men; In fact, we may say we have no army,
but In place of one a nucleus for drill and
discipline. We have three-fourths of one
soldfer for every thousand of the population
a proportion which If adopted by other
cowers would at onco Eliminate wars and
ruraors'of wars from the dally thoughts of
the chanceries of the world.
But. fixed as our tradition is, clear as is
our purpose In the direction of peace, no
country Is permanently Immune to war so
long as the desire and the practice ot peace
ar' t universal. It we quote Washington
as an advocate of peace. It Is but fair also
to quote him where he says: "To' be pre
pared fo- war Is one of the most effectual
means of preserving peace." And at another
time he said: "To an active external com
merce, the protection of a naval force Is in
dispensable. To secure respect to a neutral
Oag requires a naval force organized and
ready to vindicate it from insult or aggres
sion." To acknowledge the existence of an
evil is not to support or approve it; but the
facts must be faced. Human history is one
long desolate story of bloodshed. All the
arts unite in the apparent conspiracy to give
precedence, to the jtlory of arms. Demosthe
nes and Perlclea adjured the Athenians by
the memory of their battles. Horace boasted
that he had been & soldier, son sine gloria.
Even Milton, in that sublime sonnet where
he said "Peace hath her victories no less
than those of war' also mentioned among
the godly trophies of Cromwell "Darwent's
stream with blood of Scots imbrued." In
almost every sermon and hymn we hear In
our churches the imagery of war and battle
is used. We are charged to fight the good
fight of faith; we are to sail through bloody
seas to win the prize. The Christian soldier
is constantly marshaled to war. Not only
In our habits and customs, but in our daily
speech and in our Inmost thoughts we are
beset by 'the obsession ot conflict and mutual
destruction. It is like the law of sin In the
members to which the greatest of the apos
tles refers: "Who shall deliver us from the
body of this death?"
I am speaking to those who recognise the
lamentable state of things, and who yet do
not accept it, or submit to it. and who hope
that through the shadow of this night we
.shall sweep into a younger day. How is
this great deliverance to be accomplished?
Rellgiaa Remedy for War.
We have all recently read that wonderful
sermon on war by Count Tolstoi, in which a
spirit of marvelous lucidity and fire, abso
lutely detached from geographical or polit
ical conditions, speaks, the word as It has
tben- given btm.to. weak it,-and. as no other
living man could have done. As you read,
with an aching heart, his- terrible arraign
ment of war, feeling that as a man you are
partly responsible for all human atrocities,
you wait with impatience for the remedy
he shall propose, and you find It is Reli
gion.' Yes, that Is the remedy. If all would
do right, nobody would do wrong nothing
Is plainer. It is a counsel of perfection,
satisfactory to prophets and saints, to be
reached in God's good time. But you are
here to consult together to see whether the
generation now olive may not do something
to hasten the coming of the acceptable day.
the appearance on earth of the beatific
vision. If we cannot at once make peace
and good will, the universal rule and prac
tice of nations, what can we do to approxi
mate this condition? What measures can
we now take which may lead us at least
a little distance toward the wlshed-for goal?
I have' not come to advise you; I have no
such ambitious pretensions. I do not even
aspire to take part In your deliberations.
But I am, authorized to assure you that the
American Government extends to you a cor
dial and sympathetic welcome, and shares
to the utmost the spirit and purpose in
which you have met. The President, so
long as he remains in power, has no thought
of departing from the traditions bequeathed
us by the great soldiers and statesmen of
our early history, which have been strictly
followed during the last seven years. We
shall continue to advocate and to carry into
effect, as far as practicable, the principle
of the arbitration of such questions as may
not be Bettled through diplomatic negotla-.
tlons We have already done much in this
direction; we shall hope to do much more.
The President Is now considering the nego
tiation'' of treaties of arbitration with such
of thek European powers as desire them, and
hopes to lay tl)em before the Senate next
Winter. And finally the President has, only
a few days ago, promised. In response to the
request of the Interparliamentary Union, to
Invite the nations to a second conference at
The Hague to continue the beneficent work
of the conference of 1SS9.
Reference to War In Par East.
It hfl5 not been thought advisable by the
President during the past Summer to call
the attention of the powers to a project
which would necessarily be regarded by two
ot them, and possibly by others, with refer
ence to Its bearing upon the deplorable con
flict now raglnc in the Far East. But as we
earnestly pray that the return of peace may
not be lonir delayed between the two nations,
! to both of which we are bound by so many
historic ties, we may confidently look for
ward at no distant day to Inviting- the atten
tion of the nations to this matter, and we
hope we may have the powerful influence ot
this great organization in gaining their ad
herence. The time allotted to me is at an end. I
can enly bid you Godspeed in your work.
The task you have set yourselves, the pur
pose to which you are devoted, have won
the praise of earth and the blessing of hea
ven since the morning of time. The noblest
of all the beatitudes is the consecration
promised the peacemakers. Even 'it in our
time we may not win the wreath of olive;
even if we may not hear the gulden clamor
of the trumpets celebrating the reign ot uni
versal and enduring peace, it is something
to have desired it to have worked for It 1n
the measure of our forces. And if you now
reap no visible guerdon of your labors, the
peace of God that passes understanding will
be your all-sufficient reward.
ANTICIPATED ACTION BY KAISER
He Would Have Called Conference at
The Hague Had Not Roosevelt.
LONDON, Oct. 3. Sir Thomas Barclay,
who has been prominently Identified with
the movement for establishing amity' be
tween nations, informed the Associated
Press today that the German government
had under consideration the calling of an
other conference to extend the scope of
The Hague Convention prior to President
Roosevelt's announcement of his desire to
take action in that direction.
"There ia thus little difficulty," said
Blr Thomas, "about the adoption ot the
proposal of President Roosevelt. You
I
NO HOPE F
M
Payne Only Kept Alive
by Stimulants.
STRENGTH IS FAST FAILING
Family; Is Hastily Summoned
to Bedside at Midnight
PATIENT SUDDENLY RALLIES
He Recognizes Those About Him and
Says He Is Feeling "First Rate"
Physicians Greatly Fear
the Coming of Day.
WASHINGTON, Oct. 4. Postmaster
General Payne is still alive, but only a3
the result of the Injection of the most
powerful drugs known to the medical pro
fession. Frequent sinking spells marked
the day yesterday, and his condition is de
cidedly worso this morning than it was
twenty-four hours ago. The physicians
express not the slightest hope for his re
coveryand during the night possessed so
little confidence that their distinguished
patient could live through until morning
that at midnight bulletins were issued
predicting dissolution within a few min
utes, and at two o'clock this morning they
placed the limit at two hours at the out
side, with the probability that every mo-
men would be the last.
General Payne, after spending the fore
part of the night in a quiet sleep, was.
seized at midnight with a sinking spell
worse than any that had preceded It. Pow
erful restoratives administered In larger
quantities than theretofore given produced
not the slightest apparent effect, and the
members of the family were hastily sum
moned to the bedside.
Two hours later, a message was re
ceived from the bedside that tho General
was still alive, but all hope had been
abandoned. The physicians refused to
state how long their patient could sur
vive, but stated that while he might live
tor two hours, on tho other hand, the end
might come the next moment. After ad
ministering the stimulants at midnight,
th& physicians discontinued the "use of
drugs, and thereafter" allowed, nature to
take its course.
Shortly after half past two, the patient
showed signs of reviving, and a few sec
onds later he completely regained con
sciousness, and exclaimed ' "Hello" to
those about him. Dr. Magruder asked him
how he was feeling and received the re
ply "first rate." Milk was then given him
to drink.
Shortly before four o'clock. General
Payne's private secretary issued a bulle
tin In effect, that the patient was resting
easily. It was added that General Payne's
pulse was steadier and his respiration
more natural than It had been for day.s. A
consultation will probably bo held "this
morning. Following are the bulletins from
the sick room:
3:45 A. SI. The Postmaster-General Is resting
easily. Pulse Is eteadier. and he is breathing
more naturally than he has for daysV The
members of the family have again retired.
2:50 Dr. Magruder said Mr. Payne's respira
tion was better and more regular than it has
been in the past 24 hours, and if the improve
ment kept up he probably would last through
the night, and that a consultation could prob
ably be held in the morning.
2:35 A.- M. It was announced that the Postmaster-General
had rallied suddenly -and ex
claimed "Hello" to those about him. Milk
then was given him to drink. Dr. Magruder
aoked the patient how he was feeling, and he
replied: "First-rate."
2:20 A. M. Drs. Grayson and Magruder said
the fluid which had been Injected at midnight,
when the sinking spell began, la now absorbed,
and that the effect Is shown by the improved
respiration and pulse. It was added that this
is not an Indication ot recovery, but the pa
tient might last until morning. This fluid is a
stimulant which was given to him, and to
which at first he failed to respond. It was
after this failure to respond that It was an
nounced that further administration ot stimu
lants would not avail.
2 A. M. At 2 o'clock, Mr. Payne was barely
alive, and all hope had been abandoned. It
was announced that he was Just lingering, and
while be might last two hours, the end might
come at any moment. No stimulants are being
administered, and the physicians are allowing
nature to take its course.
12:20 A. M. The family ot Postmaster-General
Payne are now gathered around his bed
side. The end Is believed to be a matter of a
few minutes only.
12 M. Mr. Payne has had another severe
sinking spell, and the family has Just been
summoned to the bedside.
LADY CUEZ01T STELE GAINING.
Mother Who Has Just Arrived Is Per
mitted to See Her.
"WALMER CASTLE, Oct. 4. Lady
Curxon continues to make good -improvement.
Her mother, Mrs. L. Z.
Leiter, ot Chicago, who arrived yester
day, has been permitted to see her.
Sir Thomas Barlow and Dr. "Watson
Cheyene, who were summoned from
London to attend her ladyship, have re
turned home.
Arrival of Leiters at Dover.
DOVER, England, Oct. 3. The Red Star
Line steamer Vaderland, on board ot
which were Mrs. Levi Leiter and Miss
Nannie Leiter, mother and sister, respect
ively, of Lady Curzon, arrived here this
afternoon. Large crowds waited on the
pier to watch the arrival of the Leiters.
A special tender went out and brought
Mrs. and Miss Leiter ashore, where they
were met by the Mayor of Dover.
At 2:20 P. M. the Leiters went on board
the special train which was in waiting
and were soon speeding on their way to
Walmer Castle.
Arriving for Episcopal Convention.
BOSTON, Oct, 3. Clerical and lay depu-i
ties to the general convention of the Epis
copal Church, which will be formally
opened here on Wednesday, are arriving
from all parts of the country. A number
of the bishops are already here, and to
morrow the-Archbishop ot Canterbury I
expected to reach the city. He will aaaka.
addresses before the woman's auxiliary
ot the board ot amissions and before a
stuaflnai JfervasM ta3eta wkils. jut,
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