A5
THE ASTORIAN • TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2022
OBITUARIES
Walter Bradley Wirth
Portland
Sept. 24, 1956 — Jan. 26, 2022
Nathan Howard/AP Photo
Matt Lisignoli walks through an irrigation canal that ran dry last summer near Madras.
Megadrought in the West worsens
By SETH BORENSTEIN
Associated Press
The West’s megadrought
deepened so much last year
that it is now the driest in
at least 1,200 years and is a
worst-case climate change
scenario playing out live, a
new study fi nds.
A dramatic drying in 2021
— about as dry as 2002 and
one of the driest years ever
recorded for the region —
pushed the 22-year drought
passed the previous record-
holder for megadroughts in
the late 1500s and shows no
signs of easing in the near
future, according to a study
Monday in the journal Nature
Climate Change.
The study calculated that
42% of this megadrought
can be attributed to human-
caused climate change.
“Climate change is chang-
ing the baseline conditions
toward a drier, gradually drier
state in the West and that
means the worst-case sce-
nario keeps getting worse,”
said study lead author Park
Williams, a climate hydrolo-
gist at UCLA. “This is right
in line with what people were
thinking of in the 1900s as
a worst-case scenario. But
today I think we need to be
even preparing for conditions
in the future that are far worse
than this.”
Williams studied soil
moisture levels in the West —
a box that includes Califor-
nia, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada,
Arizona, most of Oregon and
Idaho, much of New Mex-
ico, western Colorado, north-
ern Mexico, and the south-
west corners of Montana and
Texas — using modern mea-
surements and tree rings for
estimates that go back to the
year 800. That’s about as far
back as estimates can reliably
go with tree rings.
A few years ago, Wil-
liams studied the current
drought and said it quali-
fi ed as a lengthy and deep
megadrought and that the
only worse one was in the
1500s. He fi gured the current
drought wouldn’t surpass that
one because megadroughts
tended to peter out after 20
years. And, he said, 2019 was
a wet year so it looked like
the western drought might be
coming to an end.
But the region dried up in
late 2020 and 2021.
All of California was con-
sidered in offi cial drought
from mid-May until the
end of 2021, and at least
three-quarters of the state was
at the highest two drought
levels from June through
Christmas, according to the
U.S. drought monitor.
“For this drought to have
just cranked up back to max-
imum drought intensity in
late 2020 through 2021 is
a quite emphatic statement
by this 2000s drought say-
ing that we’re nowhere close
to the end,” Williams said.
This drought is now 5% drier
than the old record from the
1500s, he said.
The drought monitor says
55% of the U.S. West is in
drought with 13% experienc-
ing the two highest drought
levels.
This megadrought really
kicked off in 2002 — one of
the driest years ever, based on
humidity and tree rings, Wil-
liams said.
“I was wondering if we’d
ever see a year like 2002
again in my life and in fact,
we saw it 20 years later,
within the same drought,”
Williams said. The drought
levels in 2002 and 2021 were
a statistical tie, though still
behind 1580 for the worst sin-
gle year.
Climate change from
the burning of fossil fuels is
bringing hotter temperatures
and increasing evaporation in
the air, scientists say.
Williams used 29 models
to create a hypothetical world
with no human-caused warm-
ing then compared it to what
happened in real life — the
scientifi cally accepted way to
check if an extreme weather
event is due to climate
change. He found that 42%
of the drought conditions are
directly from human-caused
warming. Without climate
change, he said, the mega-
drought would have ended
early on because 2005 and
2006 would have been wet
enough to break it.
The study “is an import-
ant wake-up call,” said Jona-
than Overpeck, dean of envi-
ronment at the University of
Michigan, who wasn’t part of
the study. “Climate change is
literally baking the water sup-
ply and forests of the South-
west, and it could get a whole
lot worse if we don’t halt cli-
mate change soon.”
Williams said there is a
direct link between drought
and heat and the increased
wildfi res that have been dev-
astating the West for years.
Fires need dry fuel that
drought and heat promote.
Eventually, this mega-
drought will end by sheer
luck of a few good rainy
years, Williams said. But then
another one will start.
Daniel Swain, a UCLA
climate scientist who wasn’t
involved in the study, said cli-
mate change is likely to make
megadrought “a permanent
feature of the climate of the
Colorado River watershed
during the 21st century.”
Fisherman, hunter and hiking, fi shing and camp-
jokester Walter Bradley ing. His other joys included
Wirth’s love of life didn’t watching his children and
grandchildren
come to an end
play their favor-
with his death.
ite sports, pick-
On Jan. 26,
ling everything
2022,
Brad
from cucumbers
passed away at
to eggs with his
home in Port-
wife, Jill, and
land, at the age
of course, raid-
of 65, after a cou-
ing every huck-
rageous battle
leberry bush he
with cancer. He
could fi nd.
was comforted
Walter Wirth
Brad is sur-
and surrounded
vived by his par-
by his wife, Jill,
and all of his children, who ents, Deloris and Albert
will continue to honor his Wirth. He left behind all
legacy by living their lives four of his children, Jenni-
fer, Lyndsey, Kimberly and
with laughter.
His belly laugh entered Mitchell, and their fami-
this world on Sept. 24, lies. Brad left his beloved
1956. Brad graduated from wife, Jill, and his three
Albany High School in stepchildren. He also pre-
the class of 1975. Follow- ceded his brothers, Bryan
ing graduation, he served and Greg, and their fami-
with the U.S. Air Force. lies, in death. Brad wasn’t
He married Joannie (Hous- shy in sharing his jokes
ton), and they had four and immense love for his
11 grandchildren.
children.
The fi shermen tales will
Brad began a career
with Pacifi c Power and live on through all those
Light, coached many Lit- who have crossed paths at
tle League teams and dug a some point with Brad, but
few clams. Next up in life, when you tell the story,
there was ushered in a join- don’t forget the infamous
ing of families when Brad belly laugh.
A short graveside cer-
and Jill married in 2005.
Together, they enjoyed cel- emony will be held on
ebrating all of their kids March 11 at 1:30 p.m.
at Willamette National
and grandkids.
Brad loved spending Cemetery, followed by a
time outdoors by hunting, reception.
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SEVENDAY FORECAST FOR ASTORIA
TODAY
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
MONDAY
REGIONAL FORECAST
Shown is today’s weather. Temperatures are today’s highs and tonight’s lows.
Seattle
49 42
Low clouds
50 42
49 40
Cloudy with a
shower
Low clouds
51 38
52 39
51 40
52 41
Mainly cloudy
Showers
possible
Cloudy, rain
possible
A shower
possible
Aberdeen
Olympia
49/41
48/41
Wenatchee
Tacoma
Moses
Lake
48/38
ALMANAC
UNDER THE SKY
TODAY'S TIDES
Astoria through Sunday
Tonight’s Sky: Orion and friends
are visible above the southern
horizon after sunset.
Astoria / Port Docks
Temperatures
High/low ................................ 54/32
Normal high/low .................. 51/37
Record high .................. 64 in 2017
Record low .................... 21 in 1949
Precipitation
Sunday ..................................... 0.00”
Month to date ........................ 0.49”
Normal month to date ......... 3.50”
Year to date .......................... 13.97”
Normal year to date ........... 14.09”
Forecasts and graphics provided by
AccuWeather, Inc. ©2022
Time
High (ft.) Time Low (ft.)
1:00 a.m. 7.3 6:27 a.m. 3.3
12:05 p.m. 8.4 7:13 p.m. -0.3
Cape Disappointment
12:43 a.m. 7.0 5:41 a.m. 3.6
11:43 a.m. 8.6 6:25 p.m. -0.3
Source: Jim Todd, OMSI
Hammond
SUN AND MOON
Sunrise today .................. 7:19 a.m.
Sunset tonight ............... 5:41 p.m.
Moonrise today ............. 4:39 p.m.
Moonset today ............... 7:22 a.m.
Full
Last
New
First
12:51 a.m. 7.3 6:00 a.m. 3.3
11:54 a.m. 8.7 6:41 p.m. -0.5
Warrenton
12:55 a.m. 7.7 6:11 a.m. 3.4
12:00 p.m. 8.8 6:57 p.m. -0.2
Knappa
1:37 a.m. 7.6 7:28 a.m. 2.8
12:42 p.m. 8.6 8:14 p.m. -0.3
Depoe Bay
Feb 16 Feb 23 Mar 2 Mar 10
12:00 a.m. 7.2 5:08 a.m. 3.7
10:58 a.m. 8.8 5:54 p.m. -0.4
City
Atlanta
Boston
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Honolulu
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
New York City
Phoenix
San Francisco
Wash., DC
Wed.
Hi/Lo/W
62/42/s
30/19/s
38/34/pc
72/58/s
58/25/pc
81/67/s
70/59/pc
64/45/pc
75/70/pc
35/28/s
79/50/pc
62/49/s
44/30/s
65/55/pc
40/39/c
50/26/r
72/51/t
34/14/sn
82/69/s
76/65/c
68/46/s
78/72/sh
48/42/pc
66/45/pc
64/49/s
58/46/pc
Weather (W): s-sunny, pc-partly cloudy,
c-cloudy, sh-showers, t-thunderstorms,
r-rain, sf-snow fl urries, sn-snow, i-ice.
48/33
Hermiston
The Dalles 59/35
Enterprise
Pendleton 35/21
52/35
58/41
La Grande
41/27
53/38
NATIONAL CITIES
Today
Hi/Lo/W
42/31
Kennewick Walla Walla
48/35 Lewiston
57/33
48/40
Salem
Pullman
52/29
Longview
49/42 Portland
50/39
42/30
Yakima 47/25
48/38
Astoria
Spokane
44/31
Corvallis
50/35
Albany
48/37
John Day
Eugene
Bend
49/37
51/29
38/27
Ontario
48/25
Caldwell
Burns
43/20
49/25
Medford
53/31
Klamath Falls
47/23
City
Baker City
Brookings
Ilwaco
Newberg
Newport
Today
Hi/Lo/W
39/19/pc
53/42/s
48/44/c
50/38/c
48/43/c
Wed.
Hi/Lo/W
39/18/sf
61/44/s
49/43/c
50/42/c
50/41/c
City
North Bend
Roseburg
Seaside
Springfi eld
Vancouver
Today
Hi/Lo/W
52/40/pc
49/40/c
50/42/c
46/38/sh
49/39/c
Wed.
Hi/Lo/W
52/37/c
49/36/c
51/43/sh
49/36/c
49/42/c