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THE ASTORIAN • SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2021
Steven Senne/AP Photo
A Tesla electric vehicle sits in a charging station at a dealership in Massachusetts in February. Teslas are the most popular electric vehicle in Oregon, according to the state.
Oregonians driving more electric vehicles
By TED SICKINGER
The Oregonian
Your eyes don’t deceive: the number of
electric vehicles humming along Oregon
streets in recent years is on pace to nearly tri-
ple, in large part due to a surge of sales by
Tesla.
Oregon had 37,680 electric vehicles regis-
tered across the state as of May 1, and state
offi cials predict the number could hit 45,000
by year end.
It stood at 16,545 just three years ago.
That spike in electric vehicles came despite
the pandemic, which fl attened the growth
curve considerably. Now registrations are
on the rise again. Electric vehicle advocates
are hoping the state is reaching an infl ection
point where growth rates will accelerate mark-
edly, signaling a transition away from inter-
nal combustion engines burning fossil fuels to
a cleaner fl eet emitting far fewer greenhouse
gases.
Jessica Reichers, a technology and pol-
icy manager at the Oregon Department of
Energy who helped author a 2021 report track-
ing progress and who maintains its data dash-
board, says the registration numbers are grow-
ing every month.
“We’re likely at that infl ection point, but we
don’t know for sure, and COVID has tied all
the data and projections up in knots,” she said.
Even so, all that growth in recent years has
barely made a dent so far in the state’s long-
term goals. Oregon has consistently ranked as
one of the top markets for electric vehicles in
the country, yet the state’s nearly 38,000 reg-
istered EVs represent only about 1% of Ore-
gon’s registered light-duty vehicles, according
to state fi gures.
What’s more, the state fell well short of its
goal of 50,000 registered zero-emission vehi-
cles by 2020, according to the Department of
Energy’s 2021 Biennial Zero Emission Vehi-
cle report. And it’s not on track to achieve
the 2025 goal of 250,000 registered electric
vehicles, or the 2030 goal of electric vehicles
accounting for 25% of all registered vehicles,
and at least 50% of new annual sales.
The state report suggests that could change
quickly as electric vehicles follow the same
S-curve of technology adoption seen with
everything from color television to fl at screens
and microwaves to mobile phones. It’s not
clear when that big ramp will happen, but it
could be stimulated by falling prices, better
state and federal incentives, improved batter-
ies and range, a better charging network and a
wider array of models.
But the report also noted that achieving the
2025 goal of 250,000 registered zero-emis-
sion vehicles would require growing the share
of new vehicle sales from 4% today to about
47% — more than a tenfold increase.
“It’s a slow-moving system,” said Jeff only since 2017, while the Leaf has been sell-
Allen, executive director of Portland-based ing locally since 2011.
Forth, a nonprofi t that promotes cleaner trans-
Leading the sales pack this year is Tesla’s
portation. “Cars last a long time. Even if you Model Y, the midsize SUV that went on sale
fl ipped a switch and all vehicles sold were in March 2020. About 1,100 were registered
electric it would take years for the fl eet to turn in Oregon last year, and it had already hit that
over.”
mark again this year by May, with a starting
Even so, he points to Norway, where elec- sales price of about $57,000.
tric vehicles made up north of 90% of new
Americans love their SUVs and trucks,
vehicle sales in September, a phenomenon so electric car advocates are hoping that the
driven by government policies that exempt arrival of new models, particularly more SUVs
them from various taxes and fees.
like the Tesla or the Ford Mustang Mach 3, or
Oregon’s data tracks only zero-emis- pickups like the Ford F-150 Lightning, will
sion vehicles, a byproduct of regulations fi rst drive higher adoption rates, perhaps even in
adopted in California, then by Oregon and rural Oregon.
10 other states, that require car manufactur-
The geographic picture is very skewed
ers to deliver a certain num-
at this point. Multnomah
ber of zero-emission vehi-
County is home to 29%
‘GLOBAL
cles to the state. Those
of the electric and plug-in
include battery electric
hybrid fl eet. The top fi ve
WARMING IS
vehicles, hydrogen pow-
counties, which also include
ered — when they arrive —
Washington, Clackamas,
REAL. I THINK
and plug-in hybrids, which
Lane and Marion, account
IT’S THE RIGHT for more than three quarters
rely almost fully on elec-
tricity until their battery is
of all zero-emission vehi-
THING DO FOR
nearly depleted, then fl ip
cles. Deschutes County had
to their internal combus-
MY PARTICULAR the fi fth-highest number
tion engines. It does not
of zero-emission vehicles,
USE. WHEN YOU according to the dashboard.
include traditional hybrids,
which are not classifi ed as
The lowest total is in
DRIVE A LOT
zero-emission vehicles and
Wheeler County, with one
don’t count toward state
OF MILES, YOU
electric vehicle registered.
goals, though they’re still
Only 12% are registered in
NOTICE GAS
better for the environment
rural parts of Oregon, the
than traditional internal
state report shows.
IS EXPENSIVE.
combustion vehicles.
That mismatch refl ects
IT’S NICE
The zero-emissions fl eet
a variety of factors. The
comprises cars, trucks,
state’s charging infrastruc-
NOT HAVING
vans, motorcycles, mopeds,
ture is concentrated in the
and street-legal electric
Interstate 5 corridor, quell-
TO NOTICE
three wheelers such as the
ing anxiety among buy-
GAS PRICES
Arcimoto “Fun Utility
ers worried about running
Vehicle” manufactured in
out of juice and getting
ANYMORE,
Eugene. All but a few hun-
stranded.
dred vehicles in the data-
Allen says it’s worth not-
PARTICULARLY
base are cars, trucks and
ing that the average Orego-
RIGHT NOW.’
vans. And about two thirds
nian drives 20 to 30 miles
of them are battery electric
a day, so their range anx-
Josh Sargent | Portland
vehicles.
ieties may be overblown.
resident who recently purchased
No surprise, the most
But drivers in rural counties
an electric vehicle
popular make in Oregon is
do drive longer distances,
Tesla.
which may make the vehi-
If you add the sales of all its models, the cles feel impractical. And the vehicles are still
company accounts for nearly half of the bat- more expensive up front than an internal com-
tery electric vehicles registered here and nearly bustion engine, so sales in Oregon are highly
a third of all zero emission vehicles. Other than correlated with household income levels, both
the Nissan and Chevy, which make the second, at the county and census tract level.
third and fourth most popular zero emission
They are also concentrated among own-
models, no other manufacturer is really close. ers of single-family homes as apartment and
The most common model on the road is condominium dwellers may not have any
Tesla’s Model 3,which starts at about $44,000. charging options on site. That’s an equity issue
There are about 6,000 of them registered in that advocates are hoping the state will address
Oregon, almost 20% more than the Nissan by supporting chargers in low- and moder-
Leaf, but Tesla has been delivering them here ate-income neighborhoods and multifamily
apartment buildings.
The Legislature has already tried to address
the higher upfront costs of the cars. Oregon
off ers a standard rebate of up to $2,500 for
new all-electric, plug-in hybrid vehicles and
zero-emission electric motorcycles priced
under $50,000.
Starting in January, the state will up the ante
by off ering up to an additional $5,000 for mid-
to low-income drivers, and will allow them to
use that rebate on used vehicles as well. That
could put the price of a used electric vehicle
within reach for more buyers, though it may be
a few years before a sizeable used market for
electric cars develops.
As it stands, Reichers said more than 80%
of electric vehicle sales in Oregon today are
new, as opposed to 80% used for the overall
market.
The federal government also off ers incen-
tives on electric vehicles, ranging from $2,500
to $7,500, depending on the capacity of the
battery. Once a manufacturer’s sales exceed
200,000, the available tax credit enters a phase
out period, and the most popular makes are
already phased or phasing out.
Advocates are hoping a federal infrastruc-
ture deal keeps the incentives fl owing, poten-
tially removing the phase out, increasing the
dollar amount, or changing the structure so
buyers without substantial tax liabilities can
benefi t too.
“It’s a big transition,” Allen said. “But in
the 10 years I’ve been doing this, we’ve never
had as good an alignment of the industry, the
policy and the technology.”
Josh Sargent made the leap in January
when he replaced his aging Mazda 3 with a
Chevy Bolt.
The southeast Portland resident says he
got a great deal on the car — about $26,000
after state incentives — because Chevrolet
was off ering blow out prices as it refreshed
the model. And he fi gures that on a per mile
basis, fi lling up with electricity versus gas has
slashed the cost of his twice weekly roundtrip
commute to Salem by at least half.
The hassle and expense of oil changes are
gone, and he assumes long-term maintenance
costs will be lower as electric cars have far
fewer parts. His wife still has her Jeep for lon-
ger road trips — a fairly common ownership
pattern. But with his daily driver, he’s pleased
he’s cut his personal greenhouse gas footprint
by a good margin.
“Global warming is real. I think it’s the
right thing do for my particular use,” he said.
Moreover, “when you drive a lot of miles, you
notice gas is expensive. It’s nice not having to
notice gas prices anymore, particularly right
now.”
After watching his experience, Sargent says
his mother and brother are considering electric
vehicles for their next car purchases, too.
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